欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 作者 | Ray Dalio 来源 | 华尔街见闻 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 桥水基金创始人达利欧在5日发布的年度复盘中指出，2025年最大的投资故事不是美股强劲表现，而是货币价值的剧烈变化和资产配 置的全球性转移。他认为，美国股市的高回报很大程度上是法定货币贬值带来的"计价幻觉"，黄金才是真正的赢家。 ← Article T+ Reply 7 ( " " Rav Dalio @RavDalio RAY DALL 2025 | | | Though the facts and returns are indisputable, I see things differently from most others. While most people see US stocks and particularly US AI stocks to be the best investments and hence the biggest investment story of 2025, it is indisputably true that the biggest ret ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that US stocks are under pressure, showing a volatile adjustment trend influenced by Federal Reserve policy expectations, delayed economic data releases, and earnings reports from major tech companies [1][7] - The non-farm payroll data for September was significantly higher than expected, with an increase of 119,000 jobs, compared to a previous value of -4,000 and an expectation of 50,000 [2][8] - The unemployment rate in the US rose to 4.4% in September, exceeding both the previous value and the expectation of 4.3% [2][8] Group 2 - The report highlights that the market anticipates a 71% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, as indicated by comments from various Fed officials [1][9] - The report notes that the short-term outlook for US stocks is challenged by high valuations and economic data uncertainty, while AI and technological innovation remain long-term growth drivers [1][7] Group 3 - In the global asset market, major asset classes showed mixed performance, with CBOT soybean oil rising by 1.22% and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 5.13%, marking the largest decline [2][26] - The report details that the major equity markets primarily exhibited a downward trend, with the Shenzhen Component Index and Hang Seng Index experiencing significant declines [2][29] Group 4 - The report provides updates on key economic data, including a rebound in the Eurozone economic sentiment index and a decline in the UK consumer confidence index [3][45][49] - Japan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase, indicating inflationary pressures [3][59]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of a national unified market is essential for building a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development, as emphasized by President Xi Jinping during the recent Central Financial Committee meeting [1] Group 1: Importance of "Hubs" and "Pivots" - Henan has the natural conditions and comprehensive advantages to become a hub in the construction of a national unified market, facilitating the flow of people, goods, and information [2] - Establishing hubs will enable Henan to serve as a center for the circulation of various resources, enhancing the efficiency of economic cycles [2] Group 2: Advantages of Henan - Henan benefits from favorable national policies aimed at accelerating the construction of a unified market, providing a significant opportunity for institutional innovation and regulatory collaboration [3] - The province has a large market scale with a population of 100 million and over 11 million business entities, which is a key comparative advantage [3] - Henan's geographical location in the Central Plains and its modern transportation system enhance its connectivity and logistical capabilities [3] Group 3: Collaborative Efforts - There is a strong consensus and active participation among various stakeholders in Henan to integrate and support the construction of a national unified market [4] - The leadership in Henan is committed to seizing opportunities and leveraging advantages to gain a competitive edge in high-quality regional development [4] Group 4: Strategic Actions - The recent meeting outlined six key actions to strengthen the hub economy and enhance the pivot effect, including market expansion and infrastructure connectivity [5] - Focus on overcoming challenges and releasing the potential of scale and agglomeration effects to facilitate investment, production, trade, and logistics [6] - The construction of hubs and pivots is aligned with national needs and the expectations of business entities, positioning Henan for a robust integration into the national market [6]

[日期Table_Industry] : shzqdatemark [Table_Summary] 主要观点 2025年05月14日 | [Table_Author] 分析师: | 陈彦利 | | --- | --- | | Tel: | 021-53686170 | | E-mail: | chenyanli@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870517070002 | [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《开局良好，内需发力》 ——2025 年 04 月 18 日 《3 月出口仍获支撑，顺差维持千亿》 ——2025 年 04 月 16 日 《价格双负局面延续》 ——2025 年 04 月 11 日 关税冲击下，出口表现韧性 ——2025 年 4 月外贸数据点评 关税冲击下，出口表现韧性 4 月外贸在关税冲击下仍表现出了较强的韧性，超出市场预期。出口 虽小幅下滑，仍然保持了可观的增速，顺差维持高位。出口方面，对 美国出口确实出现了较为突出的下滑，但对其他主要贸易伙伴的出口 则有所弥补，对东盟出口明显加快，对欧盟出口稳中偏降，对日本出 口也有所回升；金砖四国方面，除南非外均有所 ...