Core Viewpoint - The high-end real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is expected to experience a steady decline in heat, with increasing supply and changing buyer sentiment impacting market dynamics [1][7]. Group 1: Market Trends - In July 2025, the second-hand housing market transaction volume in 30 key cities decreased by 14% month-on-month and 9% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in growth momentum [1]. - The new listing volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou showed a seasonal decline in July, with only Shanghai remaining flat compared to the previous month [1][7]. - The overall new listing volume in July for Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen was significantly higher than the same period last year, with year-on-year increases exceeding 20% [1]. Group 2: Listing Characteristics - The new listings in the mid-price segment (100-500 million yuan) have decreased, while the lower and higher price segments (below 300 million yuan and above 600 million yuan) have seen an increase in listing proportions [5][6]. - In Beijing, the listing proportion for the 300-500 million yuan segment dropped by 0.98 percentage points, while the lower segment (below 300 million yuan) and the higher segment (above 3000 million yuan) increased by 0.42 and 0.63 percentage points, respectively [5]. - In Hangzhou, the high-end property listings (above 600 million yuan) have structurally increased, while lower price segment listings have decreased [6]. Group 3: Area Segment Analysis - The most significant increases in listing proportions for small-sized properties were observed in Beijing (below 70 square meters), Shanghai (50-90 square meters), and Shenzhen (50-70 square meters) [6]. - In contrast, larger property segments (above 140 square meters) have shown a steady increase in listing proportions across the three cities [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market is characterized by a "K-shaped" differentiation, where demand for affordable small units and luxury properties remains strong, while mid-range improvement properties face hesitance from owners [7]. - The high-end market in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is likely to see a steady decline in heat due to increased supply and competition from new high-quality developments [7].

Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in Hangzhou experienced a decline in June, with transactions falling to 7,335 units, a decrease of 4.9% month-on-month and 17% year-on-year [3][11] - Despite the decline in June, the first half of the year saw a total of 48,926 second-hand homes sold, marking the highest figure in nearly four years [3][6] - The market is currently characterized as a "buyer's market," with over 180,000 listings and around 30,000 properties seeing price reductions each month [11] Market Performance - The second-hand housing transactions in Hangzhou have seen a three-month consecutive decline since reaching a peak of 12,413 units in March [3][6] - The average transaction price for residential properties in the first half of the year was 29,182 yuan per square meter, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month [3][6] - The proportion of transactions for homes priced under 2 million yuan increased to 46.1% in June, indicating a shift towards more affordable housing options [6] Popular Areas and Properties - The top-selling properties in June included those in the Qingshan Lake area, with the highest transaction being 27 units at Chengxiu Xinghui City, priced at 10,848 yuan per square meter [5][6] - Newly delivered properties in areas like Shinfang and Qianjiang Century City have been popular among buyers, with several new developments leading in transaction volumes [7][9] Future Outlook - The second-hand housing market faces challenges in the second half of the year, with the need for strong macroeconomic support and timely policy assistance to maintain transaction volumes [11] - The average time to sell a property on the Beike platform is currently around 8 months, indicating a slower sales environment [11]

Core Insights - The current real estate market is experiencing a shift, with a focus on the second-hand housing market and its transaction structure, particularly in major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen [2][24][32] Group 1: Transaction Trends - The proportion of transactions under 3 million yuan is increasing, with Beijing seeing the most significant rise from 35% to 46% over the past year, while Shanghai and Shenzhen increased by 2% and 7% respectively [6][8] - The average transaction price for second-hand homes has decreased, with Shanghai dropping from 2.1 million yuan to 1.96 million yuan, and similar declines observed in Beijing and Shenzhen [8][9] - In second-tier cities, the 2 million yuan price point is critical, with cities like Chengdu and Nanjing seeing significant increases in transactions below this threshold [11][14] Group 2: Demand for Larger Units - There is a notable increase in the transaction volume of larger units (over 130 square meters) in cities like Shenzhen, where the proportion of such transactions has reached a five-year high [15][19] - The demand for larger homes is driven by changing family structures and lifestyle upgrades, particularly among families with multiple children [23][31] Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Pressure - The inventory of second-hand homes is rising, with cities like Chengdu seeing a 45.9% increase in listings over six months, leading to increased competition and downward pressure on prices [24][27] - The average price of second-hand homes across 100 cities has dropped by 7.24% year-on-year, indicating a continued decline in the market [28][30] Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall second-hand market is in a phase of weak recovery, with demand entering a new adjustment period, characterized by buyer hesitation and a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers [32][33] - Some cities are showing signs of improvement, with stable transaction volumes and manageable inventory levels, which could help restore buyer confidence [32][33]