7月京深杭新增二手挂牌量季节性回落 仅上海一城持平上月 来源：市场资讯 （来源：克而瑞地产研究） 京沪深高端市场热度或将稳中有降 ◎ 文/俞倩倩 2025年7月二手房市场成交仍处于缓步下行通道，据CRIC监测数据，2025年7月30个重点城市二手房成交环比 下降14%，同比下降9%，增长动能放缓。究竟当前二手房业主挂牌积极性如何？热点城市中新增挂牌房源有 存在哪些结构性分化特征呢？ 01 为了更好的分析二手房业主心态变化，我们主力聚焦了北京、上海、深圳、杭州等核心一二线城市，从CRIC 监测的四城新增挂牌套数来看，7月四城挂牌量季节性回落，京深杭环比下降，仅上海一城环比持平，而同 比来看，京沪深新增挂牌量显著好于去年同期，同比涨幅均在2成以上。 | 城市 | 18 | 坪比 | 自席 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 北京 | 16721 | န်း | 31% | | 下渡 | 13386 | 0% | 20% | | 深圳 | 5576 | -7% | 48% | | 杭州 | 7018 | -3% | -24% | 0 京沪深中等价格段挂牌积极性下降 刚需、高改豪宅"两头翘" ...

Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in Hangzhou experienced a decline in June, with transactions falling to 7,335 units, a decrease of 4.9% month-on-month and 17% year-on-year [3][11] - Despite the decline in June, the first half of the year saw a total of 48,926 second-hand homes sold, marking the highest figure in nearly four years [3][6] - The market is currently characterized as a "buyer's market," with over 180,000 listings and around 30,000 properties seeing price reductions each month [11] Market Performance - The second-hand housing transactions in Hangzhou have seen a three-month consecutive decline since reaching a peak of 12,413 units in March [3][6] - The average transaction price for residential properties in the first half of the year was 29,182 yuan per square meter, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month [3][6] - The proportion of transactions for homes priced under 2 million yuan increased to 46.1% in June, indicating a shift towards more affordable housing options [6] Popular Areas and Properties - The top-selling properties in June included those in the Qingshan Lake area, with the highest transaction being 27 units at Chengxiu Xinghui City, priced at 10,848 yuan per square meter [5][6] - Newly delivered properties in areas like Shinfang and Qianjiang Century City have been popular among buyers, with several new developments leading in transaction volumes [7][9] Future Outlook - The second-hand housing market faces challenges in the second half of the year, with the need for strong macroeconomic support and timely policy assistance to maintain transaction volumes [11] - The average time to sell a property on the Beike platform is currently around 8 months, indicating a slower sales environment [11]

Core Insights - The current real estate market is experiencing a shift, with a focus on the second-hand housing market and its transaction structure, particularly in major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen [2][24][32] Group 1: Transaction Trends - The proportion of transactions under 3 million yuan is increasing, with Beijing seeing the most significant rise from 35% to 46% over the past year, while Shanghai and Shenzhen increased by 2% and 7% respectively [6][8] - The average transaction price for second-hand homes has decreased, with Shanghai dropping from 2.1 million yuan to 1.96 million yuan, and similar declines observed in Beijing and Shenzhen [8][9] - In second-tier cities, the 2 million yuan price point is critical, with cities like Chengdu and Nanjing seeing significant increases in transactions below this threshold [11][14] Group 2: Demand for Larger Units - There is a notable increase in the transaction volume of larger units (over 130 square meters) in cities like Shenzhen, where the proportion of such transactions has reached a five-year high [15][19] - The demand for larger homes is driven by changing family structures and lifestyle upgrades, particularly among families with multiple children [23][31] Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Pressure - The inventory of second-hand homes is rising, with cities like Chengdu seeing a 45.9% increase in listings over six months, leading to increased competition and downward pressure on prices [24][27] - The average price of second-hand homes across 100 cities has dropped by 7.24% year-on-year, indicating a continued decline in the market [28][30] Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall second-hand market is in a phase of weak recovery, with demand entering a new adjustment period, characterized by buyer hesitation and a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers [32][33] - Some cities are showing signs of improvement, with stable transaction volumes and manageable inventory levels, which could help restore buyer confidence [32][33]