- The report utilizes a random forest model to predict the impact of index constituent stock adjustments on individual stocks' excess returns. The model is designed to handle complex, multi-dimensional, and non-linear problems effectively[13][17][24] - The random forest model selects features based on the logic that passive index funds adjust stock weights following index constituent changes, impacting related stocks. Key features include changes in passive fund holdings, stock liquidity, company market capitalization, and stock price trends[13][15][17] - The construction process of the random forest model involves training on historical data to predict excess returns for stocks affected by index adjustments. The model uses feature selection to enhance generalization ability and focuses on short-term impacts post-announcement[13][17][24] - The evaluation of the random forest model indicates its effectiveness in distinguishing the impact of index adjustments on stocks, particularly in sample-out tests. It successfully identifies stocks with significant excess returns or reduced negative effects[13][17][24] - The backtesting results show that stocks added to the CSI 300 index achieved an average excess return of 2.53% within 10 days post-announcement, while stocks added to the CSI 500 index achieved an average excess return of 1.01% in the same period[17][23][24] - Detailed group performance for stocks added to the CSI 300 index shows excess returns of 2.11% (group_1) and 1.48% (group_5) within 10 days, with a mean return of 2.53%. For the CSI 500 index, group_1 achieved 2.29%, group_5 achieved 0.88%, and the mean return was 1.01% within 10 days[23] - For stocks removed from the indices, the model shows reduced negative effects. CSI 300 stocks in group_1 achieved 1.44% within 10 days, while group_5 showed -0.80%, with a mean return of -0.25%. CSI 500 stocks in group_1 achieved 0.28%, group_5 achieved 0.48%, and the mean return was -0.11% within 10 days[31]

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Machinery and Electric Co., Ltd. (02722) has seen a significant stock price increase of nearly 7%, with a cumulative rise of over 40% in the past four trading days, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company has actively responded to market changes this year, optimizing internal operations and enhancing management efficiency, which is expected to lead to good growth in revenue and total profit by year-end [1] - For Chongqing Cummins, the performance outlook for the full year of 2025 is positive, with revenue and total profit expected to achieve good year-on-year growth, reaching historical highs [1] Group 2: Market Developments - Chongqing Machinery and Electric Co. is set to be included in the MSCI Global Small Cap Index, effective after the market close on November 24, 2025, which may enhance its visibility and attractiveness to investors [1]

【导读】MSCI发布最新调整结果 中国基金报记者 忆山 当地时间11月5日，国际指数编制公司MSCI发布11月指数调整结果，所有调整将于2025年11月24日收盘 后实施。 紫金黄金国际、广发证券被纳入MSCI新兴市场指数 具体来看，MSCI全球标准指数系列中，MSCI全球指数将新增69只证券，并剔除64只证券。 按总市值计算，MSCI全球指数新增的最大3只证券为美国CoreWeave A、荷兰Nebius Group A、美国 Insmed。MSCI新兴市场指数新增的最大3只证券为印度尼西亚Barito Renewables Energy、中国紫金黄金 国际、中国广发证券H股。 MSCI全球小盘股指数将新增207只证券，剔除224只证券；MSCI全球可投资市场指数将新增199只证 券，剔除211只证券；MSCI全球全市场指数将新增175只证券，剔除71只证券。 MSCI中国A股指数系列方面，将新增千里科技、东阳光、长川科技、华虹公司等17只证券，剔除东阿 阿胶、海澜之家、南京证券等16只证券。 MSCI前沿市场指数将新增8只证券，剔除2只证券。按公司总市值计算，该指数新增的最大3只证券为越 南航空股份公司、 ...

Group 1 - MSCI announced the results of its index review for November 2025, with adjustments effective after market close on November 24 [1] - A total of 69 stocks were added to the MSCI Global Standard Index, while 64 stocks were removed, with CoreWeave, Nebius Group, and Insmed being the largest additions by market capitalization [1] - In the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, Barito Renewables Energy, Zijin Mining International, and GF Securities H-shares were the largest new additions by market capitalization [1] Group 2 - The MSCI China Index saw the addition of 26 Chinese stocks and the removal of 20, including resource stocks and technology companies such as China Gold International and Huahong Semiconductor [2] - The MSCI China A-shares Index added 17 stocks and removed 16, with notable additions including Qianli Technology and Huahong Semiconductor [2] - The MSCI China A-shares Onshore Index added 18 stocks while removing 24, with new additions like Baiwei Storage and Shengtun Mining [2] Group 3 - The adjustments in MSCI indices will lead to rebalancing in related index funds, resulting in increased capital allocation to newly added companies and passive selling of removed companies [3] - Historical trends indicate that passive funds typically adjust their holdings on the last trading day to minimize tracking error, leading to significant trading volume changes in affected stocks [3] - Recent insights from foreign institutions, such as Fidelity, indicate a preference for emerging markets over developed markets, with expectations of more consumer stimulus measures in China [3] Group 4 - Despite mixed views on the Chinese stock market due to geopolitical risks and economic slowdown, some investors see significant growth potential in the Chinese equity market [4] - The ongoing strength of the Chinese stock market necessitates a rational assessment of attractive investment opportunities within the world's second-largest economy [4]

Core Insights - MSCI announced the results of its index review for November 2025, with adjustments effective after the market close on November 24 [1] - A total of 69 stocks were added to the MSCI Global Standard Index, while 64 stocks were removed [1] - The largest new additions to the MSCI Global Index by market capitalization include CoreWeave, Nebius Group, and Insmed [1] - The largest new additions to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index include Barito Renewables Energy, Zijin Mining International, and GF Securities H shares [1] China Market Updates - The MSCI China Index added 26 Chinese stocks and removed 20 [3] - New additions to the MSCI China Index include resource stocks and technology companies such as China Gold International, Zijin Mining International, and Ganfeng Lithium [3][5] - Stocks removed from the MSCI China Index include Haige Communications, Dong-E E-Jiao, and Hailan Home [3][5] A-Shares Adjustments - The MSCI China A-Shares Index added 17 stocks and removed 16 [7] - New additions to the MSCI China A-Shares Index include Qianli Technology, Dongyangguang, and Changchuan Technology [7] - The MSCI China A-Shares Onshore Index added 18 stocks and removed 24 [7][8] Fund Flow Implications - The adjustments in MSCI indices will lead to rebalancing in related index funds, resulting in increased capital allocation to newly added companies and forced selling of removed companies [9] - Historical trends indicate that passive funds tend to adjust their holdings on the last trading day to minimize tracking error, often leading to significant trading volume in affected stocks [9] - Active funds are not bound by this constraint and can choose their timing for allocation [9] Market Sentiment - Several foreign investment institutions have expressed positive views on the Chinese market, with Fidelity Fund favoring emerging markets over developed ones [9][10] - Despite mixed opinions on the Chinese stock market due to geopolitical risks and economic slowdown, there is recognition of the growth potential within the second-largest economy [10]

- The report predicts adjustments to the constituent stocks of the A500, CSI 300, and CSI 500 indices based on the index compilation rules published by China Securities Index Co., Ltd [9][10][15][17] - The A500 index selects 500 securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity from various industries, considering factors such as market cap size, industry representation, and consistency with the industry weight distribution of the sample space [10][11] - The CSI 300 index selects the top 300 stocks by average total market capitalization from the top 50% ranked by average daily trading volume, excluding ST and *ST stocks, and adheres to a 10% adjustment limit and a 20% buffer zone rule [15] - The CSI 500 index excludes CSI 300 constituent stocks and the top 300 stocks by average total market capitalization, then ranks the remaining stocks by average daily trading volume, removing the bottom 20%, and selects the top 500 stocks by average total market capitalization, following a 10% adjustment limit and a 20% buffer zone rule [17] - Historical analysis of index effects shows that adjustments to constituent stocks of indices like CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext Index have noticeable impacts on stock prices before and after the effective date of the adjustments [20][21][30][33][34]