石油石化 | 证券研究报告 — 业绩评论 2025 年 9 月 11 日 600938.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 25.95 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (10.1) (1.0) (2.0) 1.4 相对上证综指 (26.8) (5.7) (14.0) (37.8) 发行股数 (百万) 47,529.95 流通股 (百万) 47,529.95 总市值 (人民币 百万) 1,233,402.31 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 1,064.62 主要股东 中国海洋石油(BVI)公司 60.54% (8%) 2% 12% 22% 32% 42% Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 中国海油 上证综指 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 9 月 9 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《中国海油》20250407 《中国海油》20241031 《中国海油》20240614 中银国际证 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][23] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilient profitability with a net profit of 33 billion yuan in Q2 2025, exceeding expectations despite a 15.1% decline in Brent oil prices [1][9] - The company achieved a record high in oil and gas net production, with a total of 384.6 million barrels of oil equivalent in H1 2025, reflecting a 6.1% year-on-year increase [2][12] - The average realized price for oil liquids was 69.2 USD/barrel in H1 2025, down 13.9% year-on-year, while the average gas price was 7.90 USD/thousand cubic feet, up 1.4% year-on-year [16][12] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 207.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 69.53 billion yuan, down 12.8% year-on-year [1][9] - The company's oil and gas sales revenue for H1 2025 was 171.75 billion yuan, a decline of 7.2% year-on-year [2][12] - The average cost per barrel of oil equivalent was 26.94 USD, a decrease of 0.81 USD year-on-year [16][12] Capital Expenditure and Dividends - The company completed capital expenditures of 57.6 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 5.5 billion yuan year-on-year, with an expected total capital expenditure for 2025 of 125-135 billion yuan [3][18] - The interim dividend for 2025 is set at 0.73 HKD per share, reflecting the company's commitment to sharing growth with shareholders [3][18] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for the company is maintained, with expected net profits of 126.3 billion yuan, 129.7 billion yuan, and 135 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [1][6] Core Views - CNOOC's oil and gas production continues to grow steadily, contributing to high-quality development [1] - The company achieved a total revenue of RMB 106.9 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was RMB 36.6 billion, down 8% year-on-year but up 72% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The report highlights the successful launch of projects leading to increased oil and gas production, with a net production of 189 million barrels of oil equivalent in Q1 2025, a 5% increase year-on-year [6] - CNOOC's capital expenditure for Q1 2025 was RMB 27.71 billion, a decrease of 4.5% year-on-year, with a total budget of RMB 125-135 billion for the year [6] - The report emphasizes the company's strong cost control, with a barrel of oil cost of USD 27.03, down 2% year-on-year [6] - CNOOC is focused on shareholder returns, with an expected dividend payout of approximately RMB 62.3 billion for 2025, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.2% for A shares and 8.4% for H shares before tax [6] - The report projects net profits of RMB 138.4 billion, RMB 141.8 billion, and RMB 146.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios for A shares of 8.6, 8.4, and 8.1 [6] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is RMB 416.609 billion, with a slight decline expected in 2025E to RMB 409.877 billion [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 138.391 billion in 2025E, showing a marginal increase from 2024A [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be RMB 2.91 in 2025E, with a steady increase projected through 2027 [1] - The report indicates a decrease in capital expenditures and a focus on maintaining profitability through effective cost management [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock price will outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next 6-12 months [2][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 420.51 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 137.94 billion, up 11.38% year-on-year. Despite a decline in oil prices, the company managed to grow its net profit and enhance its oil and gas resource reserves, showcasing its sustainable development capabilities [4][9]. - The report highlights the company's steady growth in oil and gas production and reserves, with a target production of 760-780 million barrels of oil equivalent for 2025. The company has also made significant discoveries both domestically and internationally, reinforcing its low-cost advantage and profitability [9][10]. Financial Summary - The company's financial performance shows a robust operating cash flow of RMB 220.89 billion in 2024, a 5.3% increase year-on-year, and a debt-to-asset ratio of 29.05%, down 4.53% year-on-year. The gross profit margin and net profit margin improved to 53.63% and 32.81%, respectively [9][10]. - The report projects the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be RMB 138.15 billion, RMB 138.75 billion, and RMB 142.25 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 2.91, RMB 2.92, and RMB 2.99 [6][12]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-book ratio (PB) is projected to be 1.5x for 2025, 1.4x for 2026, and 1.2x for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation relative to its earnings growth [6][12]. - The report also notes a dividend payout ratio of 44.7% for 2024, with a commitment to maintain a payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a strong return to shareholders [9][10].

Group 1 - The company achieved a revenue of 30.9 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 21.9%, but net profit increased by 622% to 0.7 billion yuan, driven by revenue structure optimization and cost reductions from AI-enabled efficiency improvements [4][5] - The payment business showed marginal improvement with a revenue decline of 22.9% to 26.9 billion yuan, attributed to a 19% drop in total GPV and a slight decrease in payment rates [5][6] - The company’s overseas payment business expanded significantly, with transaction volume exceeding 1.1 billion yuan, a nearly fivefold increase year-on-year [5] Group 2 - The company reported a revenue of 31.48 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 17.2%, with a net profit of 2.34 billion yuan, down 68.98% [11][12] - The domestic acquiring business processed a total of 1.47 trillion yuan, maintaining stable monthly transaction volumes, while overseas market revenue reached 9.01 billion yuan, with a 63.61% increase in high-end market revenue [13][14] - The company’s AI digital employee product has been commercialized, with applications in digital marketing and e-commerce [15] Group 3 - China Aluminum reported a revenue of 237.07 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 5.2%, and a net profit of 12.4 billion yuan, up 85.4% [16][17] - The increase in profits was primarily due to rising aluminum and alumina prices, with alumina revenue reaching 74 billion yuan, a 38.3% increase [18] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.135 yuan per share, with a total dividend amount of 3.72 billion yuan, reflecting a payout ratio of 30.2% [20] Group 4 - Three Squirrels reported a revenue of 10.622 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 49.3%, with a net profit of 408 million yuan, up 85.51% [22][23] - The company’s online revenue reached 7.407 billion yuan, with significant growth in various channels, particularly Douyin [23][24] - The company is planning to issue H shares to enhance its brand and global supply chain capabilities [25][26] Group 5 - Kailai Ying reported total revenue of 5.805 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 25.82%, with a net profit of 949 million yuan, down 58.17% [27][28] - The small molecule business showed stable growth, with revenue of 4.571 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.85% increase when excluding large orders [28][29] - The emerging business segment achieved revenue of 1.226 billion yuan, a growth of 2.25% [29] Group 6 - Zhejiang Shuju reported a revenue of 3.097 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.61%, with a net profit of 512 million yuan, down 22.84% [30][31] - The online gaming business generated 1.34 billion yuan in revenue, with a gross margin of 91.04% [33] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.60 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 203 million yuan [32] Group 7 - Zhongke Xingtou focuses on the space-earth big data industry, with a projected revenue of 40.78 billion yuan in 2025, increasing to 63.98 billion yuan by 2027 [38][41] - The company has established a comprehensive digital earth solution, integrating data collection, processing, and application [39][40] - The company aims to expand its business into low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace sectors [40] Group 8 - Yinghe Technology reported a revenue of 8.524 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 12.58%, with a net profit of 503 million yuan, down 9.14% [43][44] - The lithium battery equipment segment faced challenges, while the electronic cigarette segment showed strong performance with a revenue of 3.191 billion yuan [44][45] - The company expects growth in the lithium battery equipment market due to domestic production recovery and expansion into overseas markets [45][46] Group 9 - Meiya Optoelectronics achieved a revenue of 2.311 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 4.7%, with a net profit of 649 million yuan, down 12.8% [48] - The color sorting machine business grew by 9.9%, while the medical equipment segment faced a decline of 33.4% [49] - The company anticipates a recovery in the medical equipment sector due to ongoing economic development and demographic trends [49]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 420.5 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.94%, with a net profit of 137.9 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 11.4% year-on-year [1] - The net production for 2024 is projected to be 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE), a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, exceeding the upper limit of production guidance [2] - The company maintains a competitive advantage with a barrel of oil cost projected to decrease to $28.52 per barrel in 2024, a decline of 1.1% year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of 144.7 billion, 149.9 billion, and 152.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with A-share PE valuations of 8.7, 8.4, and 8.2 [5][8] - The expected dividend yield for A-shares in 2025 is 5.2% and for H-shares is 7.9% [5] Production and Cost Efficiency - The company anticipates an average annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% in production from 2025 to 2027 [2] - The domestic production is expected to grow by 5.6% year-on-year, while overseas production is projected to increase by 10.8% year-on-year, driven by contributions from new oil and gas fields [2] Market Conditions - In Q4 2024, the average oil price is expected to be $70.1 per barrel, with a widening discount compared to Brent prices [4] - Natural gas prices are projected to decrease by 2.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, potentially influenced by falling oil prices and warmer winter conditions [4]