首先，从指数层面看，仍然维持横盘整理状态。 虽然市场热点切换，但流动性仍然充裕，加上货币基金等年化收益率较低，房地产又在持续调整， 因此场内资金并没有明显流出信号，对大盘指数起到稳定支持作用。其次，从市场预期看，投资者普遍对2026年市场有较高预期，从跨年度行情也好，明 年春季行情也好，目前还都是布局阶段，因此短中线做空的动能并不大。当然，从技术面看，成交量持续萎缩，表明观望气氛有所增强。同时上证指数日 K线形态在两次冲高回落后是否会构筑小M头，需要持续跟踪。如果出现破位，将往下翻从前高点到颈线位等长的高度距离。 从热点看，热点轮动，以题材股为抓手，短线脉冲。 如周三船舶制造、国防军工有表现，而近期市场炒作上市公司名称，周三则快速退潮，多只连 板个股出现跌停。从资金流向看，AI算力、新能源电池及基础材料等龙头品种，仍然受到主力资金关注和流入。 展望后市： 大盘继续震荡整理，以稳为主。从技术面看，成交量萎缩，观望气氛有所增强。关注盘中热点变化以及成交量能匹配情况。小概率方 面，上证指数日K线如颈线位失守，或有中等调整可能。 风险提示： 消息面或海外市场表现超预期，流动性的不确定性。 ...

Market Overview - In August, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 10.9%, leading global markets, while the ChiNext Index surged by 24.4%[4] - The S&P 500 increased by only 3.6%, and developed markets saw a rise of 3.5% during the same period[4] Employment Data and Economic Outlook - The U.S. added only 73,000 non-farm jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, marking the lowest increase in nine months[4] - The downward revision of previous months' data indicated a persistent risk of economic recession in the U.S.[4] Global Fund Flows - In August, global funds saw a significant inflow into money market funds, totaling approximately $200 billion, compared to $63 billion in July[4] - Developed market equities attracted $20 billion, while emerging markets saw a smaller inflow of $2 billion, down from $5 billion in July[4] China Market Dynamics - In August, China's equity market attracted a total inflow of $31.42 billion, with a notable increase in passive equity fund inflows to $36.84 billion, up from $3.13 billion in July[4] - China's fixed income market also saw substantial inflows, with $32.90 billion in August, representing 31.42% of the total emerging market inflows[4] Sector-Specific Trends - In the U.S. equity market, there was a significant outflow from the technology sector, while financials, materials, and consumer staples saw inflows[4] - Corporate bonds in the U.S. experienced a substantial inflow of $136 billion in August, a sharp increase from $15 billion in July[4]