Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a decline in futures prices, with the main contract dropping significantly by 5.34% to 422,010.00 CNY/ton as of January 30 [1] Group 1: Market Inventory and Supply - As of January 23, 2026, the national social inventory of tin ingots in major markets reached 11,001 tons, an increase of 365 tons from the previous week [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a registered tin warehouse receipt of 6,895 tons, with 200 tons canceled, remaining unchanged, and total tin inventory increasing by 35 tons to 7,095 tons [2] - Tin concentrate processing fees have been raised to 1,850 CNY/ton, with Yunnan's 40% tin concentrate and Jiangxi's 60% tin concentrate processing fees reaching 14,050 CNY/ton and 10,250 CNY/ton, respectively [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - According to Ruida Futures, the macroeconomic environment is influenced by U.S. Senate voting on funding bills and positive outcomes from UK Prime Minister Starmer's visit to China [3] - On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season are expected to increase domestic tin ore imports in the first quarter, alleviating the tight supply situation [3] - The smelting sector is facing low raw material inventories, with many companies operating at a loss, and production is expected to face pressure to increase after the New Year [3] - Demand from the AI sector is anticipated to significantly boost solder demand, while recent price increases have led to stable inventory levels and a current spot premium of 500 CNY/ton [3] Group 3: Price Trends and Recommendations - Newhu Futures notes that tin prices have diverged significantly from the fundamentals, with many downstream companies reducing or halting production [4] - The supply side remains stable, with an increase in tin concentrate supply, while overall inventory levels are not high [4] - The current market is driven by macroeconomic sentiment, with rising precious metal prices influencing tin prices; short-term price movements may be upward, and a cautious approach is recommended for high-price chasing [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The core point of the news is the significant decline in tin prices due to trade policy uncertainties and profit-taking, with LME tin closing at $54,495, down $2,110 or 3.73% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume was 1,173 contracts, and the open interest was 24,206 contracts, indicating a notable market activity despite the price drop [1] - The decline in tin prices is attributed to multiple short-term negative factors rather than a reversal of the tight supply-demand balance in the tin market [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tin market is characterized by a long-term supply shortage due to limited resource availability and policy uncertainties in major producing countries like Myanmar, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [2] - Short-term supply remains stable with normal production in domestic smelting and no immediate physical supply shortages despite low overseas inventories [2] - Demand is currently weak as companies have completed their pre-holiday stockpiling, leading to a mismatch between strong long-term expectations and weak short-term realities [2] Group 3: Industry Chain Status - The industry chain reflects a clear division: the upstream mining sector faces tight supply constraints, while the midstream smelting sector maintains stable operations, and the downstream manufacturing sector is in a pre-holiday slowdown [2] - Upstream mining is under pressure from declining resource grades and rising extraction costs, which drives leading companies to accelerate overseas resource acquisition [2] - The downstream sector is primarily focused on reducing production and controlling inventory, resulting in a temporary weakening of their ability to absorb raw material price changes [2] Group 4: Market Sentiment - The spot market is experiencing reduced trading activity due to falling futures prices, geopolitical uncertainties, and pre-holiday factors, leading to a negative feedback loop that reinforces weak sentiment [3] - Traders are less aggressive in their pricing, and downstream companies are largely adopting a wait-and-see approach, with active restocking nearly halted [3] - Overall, tin prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a weak range, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, geopolitical disturbances, and seasonal demand factors [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic tin price increased by 6.0% week - on - week. Due to the tight supply of tin ingots, downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices, and speculative funds on the futures market increased positions to drive up the price, jointly pushing the tin price up significantly [11]. - In terms of supply, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained stable at a high level this week, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. There is limited upward momentum after the two places recovered from maintenance, and short - term supply is difficult to increase significantly [11]. - On the demand side, the downstream consumer electronics is still in the traditional off - season, and terminal orders are weak. However, the demand from emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers supports tin solders to some extent. Although the high tin price significantly suppresses the downstream purchasing intention, the downstream inventory is generally low, and the acceptance of the tin price is gradually increasing. After the tin price fell this week, the rigid - demand replenishment demand was released intensively [11]. - In terms of inventory, as of January 23, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 11,001 tons, an increase of 365 tons from last Friday. Overall, although the supply is stable and the social inventory has rebounded significantly, the tin price is difficult to fall in the short term under the background of low inventory and is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In December, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly, and the shortage of raw material supply was alleviated. In December 2025, China imported 17,637 tons of tin concentrates in physical quantity, equivalent to 5,191.6 tons of metal, a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. From the perspective of major importing countries, the total import volume from Africa was 2,375 tons, a decrease of 11.1%; from Myanmar, it was 993 tons, an increase of 14.3%; from Australia, it was 912 tons, an increase of 91.5%; and from South America, the total import volume was 426 tons, an increase of 118.5% [11]. - Supply side: The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained at a high level, and this week it was 88%, basically the same as last week. However, restricted by the tight supply of raw materials, there is limited room for further improvement. Jiangxi is still affected by the shortage of scrap supply, the supply of crude tin is tight, and the refined tin output continues to be at a low level. Overall, the operating rate of domestic smelters remains stable at a high level [11]. - Demand side: Downstream consumer electronics is still in the traditional off - season, and terminal orders are weak. However, the demand from emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers supports tin solders to some extent. The overall operating rate of tin solder enterprises remains stable, and downstream solder and electronic enterprises continue the low - inventory strategy. Spot purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and the willingness to actively replenish inventory is limited [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant charts are presented, including the basis of Shanghai Tin main - continuous contract (yuan/ton) and the LME tin premium (0 - 3) (US dollars/ton) [17][19] 3.3 Cost Side - In December 2025, China imported 17,637 tons of tin concentrates in physical quantity, equivalent to 5,191.6 tons of metal, a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. From the perspective of major importing countries, the total import volume from Africa was 2,375 tons, a decrease of 11.1%; from Myanmar, it was 993 tons, an increase of 14.3%; from Australia, it was 912 tons, an increase of 91.5%; and from South America, the total import volume was 426 tons, an increase of 118.5% [11]. - No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant charts are presented, including China's monthly tin ore production, tin ore import volume, tin concentrate price, and tin concentrate processing fee [21][23][25] 3.4 Supply Side - The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained at a high level, and this week it was 88%, basically the same as last week. However, restricted by the tight supply of raw materials, there is limited room for further improvement. Jiangxi is still affected by the shortage of scrap supply, the supply of crude tin is tight, and the refined tin output continues to be at a low level. Overall, the operating rate of domestic smelters remains stable at a high level [11]. - No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant charts are presented, including domestic refined tin monthly output, domestic recycled tin monthly output, tin output and operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi regions, refined tin export and import profits, domestic refined tin import volume, and Indonesia's refined tin import and export [27][28][30] 3.5 Demand Side - Downstream consumer electronics is still in the traditional off - season, and terminal orders are weak. However, the demand from emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers supports tin solders to some extent. The overall operating rate of tin solder enterprises remains stable, and downstream solder and electronic enterprises continue the low - inventory strategy. Spot purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and the willingness to actively replenish inventory is limited [11]. - China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth [42]. - No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant charts are presented, including China's and global semiconductor sales, domestic computer and smartphone production, production of household appliances such as washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs, China's photovoltaic cell production and photovoltaic installation, domestic key enterprise tin - plated strip production, domestic PVC monthly output, downstream solder enterprise operating rate, and domestic tin apparent consumption [40][43][45] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance (Inventory) - As of January 23, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 11,001 tons, an increase of 365 tons from last Friday [11]. - No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant charts are presented, including China's social inventory and LME inventory [57][58]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent decline in tin prices is influenced by weakened commodity sentiment, with the main contract dropping by 4.68% to 326,330 yuan/ton, although the decline has moderated today [1] - The demand from downstream sectors remains weak, limiting acceptance of current prices, while the resumption of production in Myanmar is contributing to a marginal weakening of the supply-demand fundamentals [1] - In November 2025, China's imports of tin ore and concentrates amounted to 15,099.34 physical tons (approximately 5,578.04 metal tons), showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.67% but a month-on-month increase of 12.73%, indicating an acceleration in import pace [1] Group 2 - The market atmosphere is currently subdued due to tin prices being in a high fluctuation range, with traders adopting a cautious stance and showing decreased pricing enthusiasm [2] - End users are primarily in a wait-and-see mode, placing minimal orders only when prices decline, reflecting a weak demand in the consumer electronics sector [2] - Domestic tin supply remains tight, with no significant increase in smelter operations, while inventory levels are rising, which may exert pressure on prices in the short term [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that domestic tin prices are experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract rising over 2% due to tight supply of raw materials [1] - In Yunnan, while the inventory levels of raw materials have slightly increased, competition for tin ore remains intense [1] - In Jiangxi, the recent significant rise in tin prices has led to an influx of some scrap materials into the market; however, weak end-user demand towards the year-end keeps the supply of scrap low, limiting the operational rates of local recycled tin smelting enterprises [1]

Group 1 - The current spot price for 1 tin ingot in Shanghai is reported at 266,800.00 CNY/ton, which is 3,280.00 CNY/ton higher than the futures main price of 263,520.00 CNY/ton [1] - On July 7, the futures market closed with the main contract for tin at 263,520.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 2.03%. The highest price reached was 268,100.00 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 262,520.00 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 84,417 lots [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a registered tin warehouse receipt of 1,445 tons and a canceled warehouse receipt of 640 tons, with total tin inventory at 2,085 tons, both decreasing by 25 tons [3] Group 2 - The domestic tin supply remains tight due to issues with tin ore transportation from Myanmar, which is affecting imports. The pace of resuming production in Myanmar is slower than expected, and domestic processing fees are at low levels, leading to losses for smelters and further tightening of raw material inventories [5] - Recent data on downstream production schedules has been positive, and progress in tariff negotiations may positively impact exports. Both domestic and overseas inventories are showing a trend of depletion, with overseas stocks at low levels [5] - The tightness in the mining sector is being transmitted to the smelting sector, and it is expected that tin prices will experience strong fluctuations [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of tin present a situation of strong current reality but weak future expectations, with a neutral strength - weakness analysis and a price range of 254,000 - 273,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The weekly tin price maintained a volatile pattern with a slight increase of less than 1%. The current fundamentals remain in a strong - reality and weak - expectation pattern. Although there was an unexpected progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, the long - term fundamentals of tin prices are still weak, and the back structure highlights the price expectation. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities when the price is high based on the logic of weakening macro - demand and increasing supply near the middle of the year [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) 1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 discount was 83 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium fell to 800 yuan/ton [9]. - Overseas premiums were basically flat compared with last week, and the premium in Southeast Asia increased slightly [14]. 1.2 Spread - This week, the tin inter - month structure changed from contango to back structure [17]. 1.3 Inventory - This week, the global total tin inventory decreased by 203 tons, the domestic social inventory decreased by 234 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 148 tons [22]. - This week, the LME inventory decreased by 55 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants increased to 13.89% [25]. 1.4 Capital - As of this Friday, the settled funds for Shanghai tin were 144,840 million yuan, and the capital flow in the past 10 days was in the outflow direction [31]. 1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin decreased slightly, while the open interest increased slightly [33]. - This week, the trading volume of LME tin continued to decline significantly from the previous high [39]. 1.6 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin decreased slightly [45]. 2. Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 2.1 Tin Ore - In March 2025, the output of tin concentrates was 6,344 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.74%; the import volume was 8,323 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.83%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 55.44% [49]. - This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan decreased to 12,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,800 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss level of tin ore decreased slightly [50]. 2.2 Smelting - In March 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,080 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.06% [52]. 2.3 Import - In March 2025, the domestic tin ingot imports were 2,101 tons, exports were 1,673 tons, and the net import was 428 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 1,093 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 8,039 yuan/ton [62]. 3. Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) 3.1 Consumption - In March 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 15,708 tons, and the actual consumption was 13,379 tons, showing a slight increase from the previous month [66]. 3.2 Tin Materials - This week, the downstream processing fees remained stable, and the monthly operating rate of solder enterprises in March increased slightly [68]. 3.3 End - User Consumption - In March 2025, the output of end - user products generally increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The output of integrated circuits, air conditioners, and washing machines reached the highest values over the years [75]. - In March 2025, the consumption performance of household appliances and new energy increased both year - on - year and month - on - month [77]. - This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, showing the same trend as the tin price [83].