Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a decline in futures prices, with the main contract dropping significantly by 5.34% to 422,010.00 CNY/ton as of January 30 [1] Group 1: Market Inventory and Supply - As of January 23, 2026, the national social inventory of tin ingots in major markets reached 11,001 tons, an increase of 365 tons from the previous week [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a registered tin warehouse receipt of 6,895 tons, with 200 tons canceled, remaining unchanged, and total tin inventory increasing by 35 tons to 7,095 tons [2] - Tin concentrate processing fees have been raised to 1,850 CNY/ton, with Yunnan's 40% tin concentrate and Jiangxi's 60% tin concentrate processing fees reaching 14,050 CNY/ton and 10,250 CNY/ton, respectively [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - According to Ruida Futures, the macroeconomic environment is influenced by U.S. Senate voting on funding bills and positive outcomes from UK Prime Minister Starmer's visit to China [3] - On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season are expected to increase domestic tin ore imports in the first quarter, alleviating the tight supply situation [3] - The smelting sector is facing low raw material inventories, with many companies operating at a loss, and production is expected to face pressure to increase after the New Year [3] - Demand from the AI sector is anticipated to significantly boost solder demand, while recent price increases have led to stable inventory levels and a current spot premium of 500 CNY/ton [3] Group 3: Price Trends and Recommendations - Newhu Futures notes that tin prices have diverged significantly from the fundamentals, with many downstream companies reducing or halting production [4] - The supply side remains stable, with an increase in tin concentrate supply, while overall inventory levels are not high [4] - The current market is driven by macroeconomic sentiment, with rising precious metal prices influencing tin prices; short-term price movements may be upward, and a cautious approach is recommended for high-price chasing [4]

期货市场：贸易政策不确定性及获利盘集中离场，隔夜伦锡收跌3.73%；最新收盘报54495美元，比前 一交易日下跌2110美元，跌幅为3.73%，成交量为1173手，持仓量24206手； 伦敦金属交易所（LME）1月26日伦锡库存量7065吨，较前一交易日库存量减少130吨。长江锡业网 讯：今日沪锡期货全线低开，主力月2603合约开盘报434790跌7810元，9：10分沪锡主力2603合约报 428980跌13620；沪期锡开盘低开低走，盘面维持弱势震荡运行，本交易日锡价下跌成为有色板块中受 情绪扰动较显著的品种。此番波动并非锡市供需紧平衡基本面的反转，而是多重短期利空共振下的情绪 宣泄 —— 美国 11 月耐用品订单月率 5.3% 大幅高于预期，凸显经济韧性的同时进一步打压美联储降息 预期，叠加美联储议息会议临近、鲍威尔继任者悬念、地缘动荡等因素，隔夜全球资产呈现分化走势， 美元指数延续下跌，美债长端收益率上行，美股三大股指收涨但纳斯达克中国金龙指数走跌，机构对周 期品的短期配置意愿显著降温；国内方面，临近春节假期杠杆资金热度回落，上期所交易规则调整引发 部分投机资金离场，再叠加刚果金与卢旺达边境交火引发的 ...

库存稳步回升，锡价高 位震荡 锡周报 2026/01/24 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本端：12月国内进口锡精矿增量明显，原料端供应紧缺有所缓解。2025年12月我国进口锡精矿实物量17637吨，折金属5191.6吨，环比增 长13.3%，同比增长40.2%。主要进口国看，非洲地区进口总量2375吨，减少11.1%；缅甸993吨，增长14.3%；澳大利亚912吨，增长91.5%； 南美地区进口总量426吨，增长118.5%。 ◆ 供给端：云南地区冶炼厂开工率维持高位，本周开工率为88%，与上周基本持平，但受原料供应偏紧制约，进一步提升空间有限。江西地区 仍受废料供应不足影响，粗锡供应偏紧，精锡产量延续偏低水平。整体来看，在原料约束尚未明显缓解的背景下，国内冶炼厂开工以 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent decline in tin prices is influenced by weakened commodity sentiment, with the main contract dropping by 4.68% to 326,330 yuan/ton, although the decline has moderated today [1] - The demand from downstream sectors remains weak, limiting acceptance of current prices, while the resumption of production in Myanmar is contributing to a marginal weakening of the supply-demand fundamentals [1] - In November 2025, China's imports of tin ore and concentrates amounted to 15,099.34 physical tons (approximately 5,578.04 metal tons), showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.67% but a month-on-month increase of 12.73%, indicating an acceleration in import pace [1] Group 2 - The market atmosphere is currently subdued due to tin prices being in a high fluctuation range, with traders adopting a cautious stance and showing decreased pricing enthusiasm [2] - End users are primarily in a wait-and-see mode, placing minimal orders only when prices decline, reflecting a weak demand in the consumer electronics sector [2] - Domestic tin supply remains tight, with no significant increase in smelter operations, while inventory levels are rising, which may exert pressure on prices in the short term [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that domestic tin prices are experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract rising over 2% due to tight supply of raw materials [1] - In Yunnan, while the inventory levels of raw materials have slightly increased, competition for tin ore remains intense [1] - In Jiangxi, the recent significant rise in tin prices has led to an influx of some scrap materials into the market; however, weak end-user demand towards the year-end keeps the supply of scrap low, limiting the operational rates of local recycled tin smelting enterprises [1]

Group 1 - The current spot price for 1 tin ingot in Shanghai is reported at 266,800.00 CNY/ton, which is 3,280.00 CNY/ton higher than the futures main price of 263,520.00 CNY/ton [1] - On July 7, the futures market closed with the main contract for tin at 263,520.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 2.03%. The highest price reached was 268,100.00 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 262,520.00 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 84,417 lots [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a registered tin warehouse receipt of 1,445 tons and a canceled warehouse receipt of 640 tons, with total tin inventory at 2,085 tons, both decreasing by 25 tons [3] Group 2 - The domestic tin supply remains tight due to issues with tin ore transportation from Myanmar, which is affecting imports. The pace of resuming production in Myanmar is slower than expected, and domestic processing fees are at low levels, leading to losses for smelters and further tightening of raw material inventories [5] - Recent data on downstream production schedules has been positive, and progress in tariff negotiations may positively impact exports. Both domestic and overseas inventories are showing a trend of depletion, with overseas stocks at low levels [5] - The tightness in the mining sector is being transmitted to the smelting sector, and it is expected that tin prices will experience strong fluctuations [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of tin present a situation of strong current reality but weak future expectations, with a neutral strength - weakness analysis and a price range of 254,000 - 273,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The weekly tin price maintained a volatile pattern with a slight increase of less than 1%. The current fundamentals remain in a strong - reality and weak - expectation pattern. Although there was an unexpected progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, the long - term fundamentals of tin prices are still weak, and the back structure highlights the price expectation. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities when the price is high based on the logic of weakening macro - demand and increasing supply near the middle of the year [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) 1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 discount was 83 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium fell to 800 yuan/ton [9]. - Overseas premiums were basically flat compared with last week, and the premium in Southeast Asia increased slightly [14]. 1.2 Spread - This week, the tin inter - month structure changed from contango to back structure [17]. 1.3 Inventory - This week, the global total tin inventory decreased by 203 tons, the domestic social inventory decreased by 234 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 148 tons [22]. - This week, the LME inventory decreased by 55 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants increased to 13.89% [25]. 1.4 Capital - As of this Friday, the settled funds for Shanghai tin were 144,840 million yuan, and the capital flow in the past 10 days was in the outflow direction [31]. 1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin decreased slightly, while the open interest increased slightly [33]. - This week, the trading volume of LME tin continued to decline significantly from the previous high [39]. 1.6 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin decreased slightly [45]. 2. Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 2.1 Tin Ore - In March 2025, the output of tin concentrates was 6,344 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.74%; the import volume was 8,323 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.83%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 55.44% [49]. - This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan decreased to 12,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,800 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss level of tin ore decreased slightly [50]. 2.2 Smelting - In March 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,080 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.06% [52]. 2.3 Import - In March 2025, the domestic tin ingot imports were 2,101 tons, exports were 1,673 tons, and the net import was 428 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 1,093 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 8,039 yuan/ton [62]. 3. Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) 3.1 Consumption - In March 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 15,708 tons, and the actual consumption was 13,379 tons, showing a slight increase from the previous month [66]. 3.2 Tin Materials - This week, the downstream processing fees remained stable, and the monthly operating rate of solder enterprises in March increased slightly [68]. 3.3 End - User Consumption - In March 2025, the output of end - user products generally increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The output of integrated circuits, air conditioners, and washing machines reached the highest values over the years [75]. - In March 2025, the consumption performance of household appliances and new energy increased both year - on - year and month - on - month [77]. - This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, showing the same trend as the tin price [83].