Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated, with a weekly decline of 0.95%. The adjustment of tariff measures on US - imported goods and China's October official manufacturing PMI data were released. Domestically, the economy is resilient with rising prosperity in new energy and semiconductors, while overseas uncertainties remain high with a high - probability of future interest rate cuts. [6] - In terms of supply, RKAB approval in 2025 provides sufficient raw materials for smelters, but new policy risks still exist. In September, China's nickel imports were large, nickel - iron production was low in China and high in Indonesia. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises rebounded, and production increased slightly in September. In October 2025, domestic refined nickel production declined from a high level. [6] - Regarding demand, stainless - steel production improved in September and is expected to have a mild rebound in October. Domestic stainless - steel inventory is still high, and the inventory increased after a decrease. In the new - energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, but the output of ternary materials increased significantly from August to September. [6] - In terms of inventory, LME nickel inventory, SHFE inventory, and refined nickel social inventory all increased slightly last week. [6] - In the short term, the RKAB approval in 2025 provides raw material security, but new policy risks remain. Trade disputes affect market sentiment. Fundamentally, imported nickel remains at a high level, inventory is increasing, and Indonesian policies may affect supply but have not had an actual impact yet. Downstream stainless - steel production and inventory have marginally improved, and nickel prices will generally fluctuate within a range. [6] Group 3: Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Viewpoints and Strategies - Viewpoint: After considering supply, demand, and inventory factors, nickel prices will fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - Strategy: Conduct short - term trading on the SHFE nickel 2512 contract and sell out - of - the - money put options. Pay attention to changes in the mining end, stainless - steel production, trade disputes, and Indonesian exports in the future [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industrial chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, nickel - iron, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and their downstream applications in stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [8]. 3. Futures and Spot Markets - The report mentions the LME nickel premium and discount and the SHFE electrolytic nickel main - contract basis, but no specific analysis is provided [10]. 4. Supply Side Nickel Ore - In 2024, China's nickel ore imports decreased by 21.7% year - on - year to 36.5763 million tons due to significant nickel - iron production cuts. In August - September 2025, imports increased seasonally, reaching 6.3467 million and 6.1144 million tons respectively [18]. Nickel Pig Iron - In 2024, Indonesia's nickel - iron production was 1.5138 million tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, production was 156,500 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase. In 2024, domestic nickel - iron production was 296,400 tons, a 20.9% year - on - year decrease. In September 2025, production was 21,700 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease and still at a low level [21]. - In August - September 2025, China's nickel - iron imports were 874,000 and 1.085 million tons respectively, showing a significant month - on - month increase. In September 2025, nickel - pig - iron inventory was 19,900 tons, remaining stable [25]. Refined Nickel - With the continuous release of electrowinning nickel capacity, pure - nickel supply expanded in 2024. In October 2025, domestic refined nickel production was 33,240 tons, a decline from a high level. In July - August 2025, the apparent consumption was 29,883.05 and 37,551.45 tons respectively [28]. - In September 2025, China's nickel imports were 2.786 million tons, at a high level, and exports were 170,000 tons, with a slight month - on - month decline [31]. 5. Intermediates Wet - Process Intermediates - In September 2025, Indonesia's MHP production was 41,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decline but still at a historical high [37]. High - Grade Nickel Matte - Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte production growth was relatively pressured this year. In 2024, production was 267,000 tons, an 8.54% year - on - year increase. In August - September 2025, production was 20,300 and 21,300 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there will be more planned intermediate - product capacities from 2025 - 2027 [43]. Nickel Sulfate - In September 2025, China's nickel sulfate production was 39,045.4 tons, a month - on - month increase. In August - September 2025, nickel sulfate imports were 30,292 and 29,533 tons respectively [47]. 6. Demand Side Stainless - Steel Demand - In 2024, the release of stainless - steel production capacity was relatively slow. The output of 43 stainless - steel sample enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a 7.43% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, stainless - steel production was 3.4267 million tons, showing an increase after a decline from a high level. The latest total social inventory of stainless steel was 987,549 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase [52]. Cathode - Material Demand - In terms of power - battery structure, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20%. Driven by the trade - in policy, the total terminal demand is expected to continue growing in 2025. In September 2025, the production of ternary cathode materials was 75,900 tons, continuing to rebound from a low level [59]. 7. Inventory Side - As of October 31, 2025, the social inventory of refined nickel was 48,746 tons, a slight increase from the previous week [64]. - As of November 5, 2025, LME nickel inventory was 252,750 tons, a slight month - on - month increase. As of November 6, 2025, SHFE inventory was 32,689 tons, a slight month - on - month increase [68].

2025 年 11月 02 日 . "矿端 不锈钢:钢价低位窄幅震荡运行 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021479 张再宇 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读: 沪線基本面:冶炼瑞累库压制,矿端不确定性支撑。多空博弈激烈,镍价区间震荡。空头的核心逻辑 在于冶炼库存高位累增叠加供应压力预期的共振。现实面,冶炼端内外显性库存重新回到累库,市场普遍 预期隐性补库放缓,预期端供增需弱,镍合金端使用镍铁取代镍板的比例有所提高,而纯镍投产仍有增加 的预期，叠加远端低成本湿法路径供应增加的预期,现实和预期或仍限制沪镍上方弹性。虽然非标镍基本 面边际改善，部分企业考虑将精炼镍转向非标镍生产，但转产暂未动摇精炼镍的累库矛盾,即还不够有效 传导至精炼镍的供需改善,因而冶炼端逻辑依然对上方弹性形成限制。与之博弈,多头核心支撑点在于印 足镍矿供应治理政策的不确定性,以及短线火法成本的下方空间难言广阔。首先,虽然印尼目前的银矿冶 理影响量级可控,粗略估算,影响至多约 2000 余金属吨,但短线检查结果频出或增加市场担忧,包括因 违反印尼林业许可证规定 WBN 园区面积的 0.3%的部分被接管,影响镍矿量级至多 120 万湿吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro aspect: US inflation pressure is lower than expected, and the market anticipates two more Fed rate cuts this year. A US lending company, PrimaLend, declared bankruptcy due to debt default, increasing market risk - aversion and causing the US dollar index to rise. Sino - US trade talks are ongoing, with a new round to start in Malaysia over the weekend after limited results from the first round [3]. - Fundamental aspect: The Surigao mining area in the Philippines is entering the rainy season, leading to weaker shipments. Nickel ore supply in Indonesia remains abundant, with APNI slightly raising the domestic benchmark price. The stainless - steel market is still sluggish, with steel mills reducing production, and raw - material market price - pressing for inventory, squeezing the profit of nickel - iron plants. The popularity of nickel sulfate continues, while the fundamental situation of pure nickel remains weak, with inventory accumulating both at home and abroad [3]. - Future outlook: The nickel market lacks clear guidance and will continue to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the RKAB approval quota scale. Indonesian mining companies have submitted their 2026 production plans, and the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources may announce next year's nickel - ore approval quota scale after review. If the approved quota deviates from market expectations, nickel - price volatility may intensify. Indonesia is tightening control over nickel resources, so the cost is unlikely to drop significantly, providing strong support for the nickel price. However, the fundamental situation shows no significant improvement, with the traditional consumer market remaining sluggish and the actual demand boost from the power - battery end limited, so it's difficult for the fundamentals to drive price changes. Although macro - narratives still affect nickel prices, the current nickel price is mostly insensitive to regular narratives, with limited fluctuation range [3][12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Important Data | Index | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/17 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 122150 | 121160 | 990 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15361 | 15126 | 235 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 250854 | 250530 | 324 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 26810 | 27042 | - 232 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 2550 | 2450 | 100 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 650 | 550 | 100 | Yuan/ton | | High - nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 947 | 947 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless - steel Inventory | 85.3 | 86.5 | - 1.11 | Million tons | [4] 3.2 Market Review - **Macro**: US September CPI growth was lower than expected, and the Fed is expected to cut rates twice this year. Due to government shutdowns, inflation data release was delayed, and the next - month data may not be released. Sino - US trade talks are progressing, with a new round in Malaysia after the first round was fruitless [5]. - **Nickel Ore**: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines rose from $49/wet ton to $50/wet ton, while that in Indonesia remained at $38.55/wet ton. Indonesia announced the October (Phase II) domestic benchmark price for laterite nickel ore, with a 0.27% increase. The Surigao mining area in the Philippines is entering the rainy season, and future shipments are expected to decline [5]. - **Pure Nickel**: In September, China's refined - nickel production was 35,600 tons, a 13.07% year - on - year increase, with a capacity of about 54,198 tons and a 66% operating rate. Profitability improved, with MHP profit margin rising from 3.2% to 4.4% and integrated high - matte nickel profit margin rising from - 4% to - 2.6%. In September, China imported 28,367 tons of refined nickel, a significant 378.86% year - on - year increase, mainly from Russia. Exports were about 14,112 tons, a 33.21% year - on - year increase. As of October 23, the spot import profit and loss of refined nickel was - 645.74 Yuan/ton, with a slightly reduced loss [6]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 938 Yuan/nickel point to 930.5 Yuan/nickel point, a 0.08% weekly decline. In September, China's nickel - pig - iron production was 22,930 metal tons, a 0.09% month - on - month decrease, while Indonesia's was 139,900 nickel tons, a 0.14% year - on - year and 0.01% month - on - month increase. As of October 15, the nickel - iron physical - ton inventory was 253,100 tons, a slight increase of about 1,200 tons. In September, China imported about 1.0853 million tons of nickel iron, a 47.19% year - on - year increase, mainly from Indonesia [7][8]. - **Stainless Steel**: In September, China's 300 - series stainless - steel production was about 1.79 million tons, a 100,000 - ton increase from last year and flat month - on - month. Indonesia's production was about 430,000 tons, a 30,000 - ton increase. In October, China's 300 - series stainless - steel production is expected to decrease by 70,000 tons. As of October 23, the domestic 300 - series stainless - steel inventory was 557,300 tons, a decrease of about 4,900 tons. The supply contraction alleviated inventory pressure, but weak terminal consumption dragged down nickel - iron consumption and prices [9]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The battery - grade nickel - sulfate price remained at 28,550 Yuan/ton, and the electroplating - grade price at 30,750 Yuan/ton. In September, nickel - sulfate production was 33,971 tons (metal content), a 4.75% year - on - year and 11.45% month - on - month increase. The ternary - material production was about 75,360 tons, a 31.5% year - on - year and 2.6% month - on - month increase. As of October 24, the high - matte nickel to nickel - sulfate process profit margin was 5.4%, with a slight decline, while other raw - material process profit margins were negative [10]. - **New Energy**: From October 1 - 19, new - energy vehicle retail sales were 632,000 units, a 5% year - on - year and 2% month - on - month increase, with a 56.1% penetration rate. However, due to changes in the new - energy vehicle purchase - tax policy in 2026 and subsidy - policy adjustments, the actual demand may be affected, but there may be a release of pent - up demand at the end of the year [10]. - **Inventory**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel is 48,802 tons, an increase of 1,094 tons. SHFE inventory is 26,810 tons, a decrease of 232 tons, and LME nickel inventory is 250,854 tons, an increase of 3,242 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 277,664 tons, an increase of 92 tons [11]. 3.3 Industry News - Indonesia announced the October (Phase II) domestic benchmark price for nickel ore, with a 0.27% increase from the October (Phase I) price [14]. - Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) reported a 18.40% quarter - on - quarter increase in nickel production in Q3 2025, mainly due to increased raw - material processing and higher production at the Kola production base [14]. - The LME received a listing application for the "PTENICO" nickel brand from PT Eternal Nickel Industry, with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report includes charts on domestic and international nickel - price trends, spot premium trends, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratio, nickel - futures inventory, nickel - ore port inventory, high - nickel - iron price, 300 - series stainless - steel price, and stainless - steel inventory [16][18][20][22][24]

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250911: Difficult to Break Through the Oscillation Range [1] Core Views - On September 10th, the main nickel contract fluctuated at a low level, with the trading volume of 75,060 lots (-25,275) and the open interest of 81,612 lots (+775). LME nickel rose 0.43%. The spot market trading improved, and the basis premium narrowed. The nickel fundamentals are loose, and the weak trading and interest - rate cut expectations are mutually restrictive. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate within a range [2]. - On September 10th, the main stainless - steel contract oscillated within a range, with the trading volume of 115,463 lots (+5,951) and the open interest of 123,168 lots (-11). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. Although the fundamentals are loose, there is support from the cost side. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will oscillate within a range [2] Trading Strategies - For nickel, it is recommended to wait and see [2] - For stainless steel, it is recommended to wait and see [2] Market Data Summary Nickel Futures Market - Shanghai Futures Exchange: The closing prices of futures contracts such as the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts changed slightly on September 10th compared with the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 100,281 lots (-25,275), and the open interest was 80,837 lots (+775). The inventory decreased by 295 tons [2] - LME: The closing prices of LME 3 - month nickel (electronic and场内盘) changed. The trading volume was 4,969 lots (-1,596). The LME nickel inventory decreased significantly, with the registered and cancelled warrants both changing [2] Spot Market - The average prices of various nickel products such as SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 350 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The prices of nickel ore from the Philippines remained stable [2] Inventory - SMM China port nickel ore total inventory increased by 480,000 wet tons compared with the previous week. SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory decreased by 400 tons. SMM pure nickel social inventory changed [2] Stainless Steel Futures Market - The closing prices of stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three) changed. The trading volume of the active contract was 115,463 lots (+5,951), and the open interest was 123,168 lots (-11). The inventory decreased by 246 tons [2] Spot Market - The average prices of 304/2B, 304/No.1, 316L/2B, and 316L/No.1 stainless - steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained mostly stable. The prices of waste stainless - steel also remained unchanged [2] Inventory - The stainless - steel inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The 300 - series social inventory was 61,170 tons (-11,000 tons) last week [2] Industry News - The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (ESDM) granted an operating license to PT Gag Nikel in Raja Ampat Island, Papua, Indonesia. The license has passed the evaluation process of relevant departments. PT Gag Nikel is a subsidiary of PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has dropped from around 95% to about 75%. The inflation pressure caused by tariffs is still greater than the pressure of the weakening labor market [3]. - Overseas nickel ore supply continues to be in a loose state, with the price of laterite nickel ore showing signs of softening. The price of ferronickel has stopped rising, and the consumption of downstream stainless steel is weak. The salt market remains popular, but the market's acceptance of price increases is poor. The trading volume in the pure nickel market has picked up [3]. - In the later stage, nickel prices will maintain a range - bound pattern and may be technically corrected. The uncertainty on the macro - front remains high, and the game between inflation pressure and the weakening labor market will continue. The traditional consumer market remains sluggish, and the new energy sector may improve, but it is difficult to determine whether the expectations can be realized. The supply side remains stable at a high level, and the fundamentals are unlikely to improve significantly [3][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary | Variety | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/18 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 119610 | 120340 | -730 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 14929 | 15151 | -222 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 209748 | 211662 | -1914 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 22552 | 23051 | -499 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 2600 | 2200 | 400 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 500 | 400 | 100 | Yuan/ton | | High - Nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 936 | 936 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless Steel Inventory | 88.3 | 87.8 | 0.50 | Tons | [5] 3.2 Market Review - **Macro - level**: As of August 16, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 235,000, higher than the expected 225,000. The US manufacturing and service PMI in August were both better than expected. Fed officials' hawkish remarks led to a significant downward revision of the market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in September to around 75% [6]. - **Nickel Ore**: The FOB prices of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia have declined. The expectation of a loose nickel ore supply remains unchanged, and Indonesian nickel iron plants generally expect the nickel ore price to decline further in late August [6]. - **Pure Nickel**: In July, the domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly by 400 tons to 53,699 tons, while the smelter's production schedule increased slightly. The domestic export and import of electrolytic nickel both increased year - on - year. After the import window opened, the imported resources increased significantly, and the spot inventory remained relatively stable [7]. - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) rose from 925.5 yuan/nickel point to 929 yuan/nickel point. In July, China's nickel pig iron production decreased slightly month - on - month. In June, the domestic nickel iron import increased significantly year - on - year, mainly from Indonesia. In July, Indonesia's nickel iron production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. As of August 15, the nickel iron physical ton inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The stainless - steel consumption is still sluggish, and the short - term ferronickel price may peak and then fluctuate around the cost line [8][9]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The prices of battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate increased. In July, the production of nickel sulfate metal increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The production of ternary materials also increased. The upstream and downstream inventory days of nickel sulfate decreased. The market for nickel sulfate remains popular, but the terminal market's resistance to high - nickel salts suppresses price increases [9]. - **New Energy**: From August 1 to 17, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 58.0%. The growth rate of new - energy vehicle sales has slowed down in the first and middle ten days of August. The replacement subsidy funds have been allocated, but the implementation of local policies varies, and the demand - side expectation is moderately weak [10]. - **Inventory**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel decreased by 1,019 tons compared with the previous period. The SHFE inventory decreased by 499 tons, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,914 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges decreased by 2,413 tons [10]. 3.3 Industry News - Boqian New Materials' subsidiaries plan to invest in expanding the production of ultrafine nickel powder, with a planned construction period of 12 months and an additional annual production capacity of 600 tons each [12]. - Indonesia announced the second - phase nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price for August, which decreased by about 0.1% compared with the first - phase price [12]. - Centaurus Metals plans to make a final investment decision on its Brazilian nickel ore project in the first half of 2026, with an expected investment of $370 million and an annual production capacity of about 20,000 tons of nickel [12]. - Nimy Resources discovered a potential large - scale copper - nickel mineralization in Western Australia, which may strengthen the company's layout in the copper - nickel - PGE exploration field [12]. - Indonesia's nickel ore production from January to July 2025 was lower than the target, with a realization rate of only 69% [12]. - BHP cut its dividend to the lowest level since 2017 and plans to sell its idle Nickel West business [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and international nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [14][16].