6 电话：0755-23838239 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 9 月 8 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 分析师：刘笑瑜 证书编号： S1080525070001 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、宏观经济组： 事件： 9 月 5 日晚 8 点半美国劳工统计局公布 8 月劳动力市场数据。 评论： 美国 8 月季调后非农就业人口增 2.2 万人，预期增 7.5 万人，前值（7 月）从增 7.3 万人上修为增 7.9 万人；8 月失业率为 4.3%，预期为 4.3%，前值为 4.2%；8 月劳 动参与率为 62.2%，预期为 62.3%，前值为 62.2%。失业率与非农调查的背离，主 要是因为非农就业机构调查受特朗普移民政策的影响更大。 美国 8 月平均每小时工资同比升 3.7%，预期升 3.7%，前值由升 3.9%；8 月平均每 小时工资环比升 0.3%，预期升 0.3%，前值升 0.3%。 从结构上看，美国 8 月季调后政府部门就业人口减 1.6 万人，前值增 0.2 万人；8 月私人非农就业人数增 3.8 万人，前值增 7.7 万人。其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated increase in NAND Flash prices due to major manufacturers reducing production, leading to a supply shortage that may last until 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: NAND Price Increase - NAND Flash average contract prices are expected to rise by 5% to 10% in Q3, driven by reduced production from key manufacturers like Micron and SanDisk starting in the second half of 2024 [1]. - The price surge is particularly significant for products below 512Gb, as these lower-margin products are prioritized for production cuts [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Major NAND manufacturers, including Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Kioxia, and Western Digital, have initiated production cuts of 10% to 15% starting in the first half of 2025, contributing to the tightening supply [1]. - The overall output of NAND Flash is declining, prompting suppliers to shift focus towards higher-margin products, which is expected to result in a price increase of 8% to 13% for 3D NAND (TLC & QLC) wafers in Q3 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The NAND flash memory market is experiencing a revenue decline of 6.2% in Q4 2023, primarily due to weak consumer demand, with expectations of a further 20% drop in industry revenue in Q1 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The average selling price (ASP) of NAND flash memory has decreased by 4% quarter-over-quarter, while overall shipment volume has declined by 2% [1]. - By the end of 2024, global NAND flash revenue is projected to be $16.52 billion, reflecting a 6.2% decrease from the previous quarter [2]. - Manufacturers are expected to clear excess inventory, which will contribute to further price declines in NAND flash memory [1]. Group 2: Manufacturer Performance - Major NAND flash manufacturers are facing revenue declines, with Samsung's market share at 35.2% despite a nearly 10% revenue drop compared to Q3 2023 [3]. - SK Hynix experienced a 6.6% revenue decline, while Micron faced a 9.3% drop, and Kioxia and Western Digital saw declines of 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively [4]. - Many manufacturers are shifting focus towards enterprise SSDs to mitigate losses, with Samsung and SK Hynix addressing production imbalances relative to market demand [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry anticipates improvements in the second quarter of 2024 as production aligns more closely with demand [2]. - Kioxia is adopting a more technical approach by enhancing data transfer speeds and increasing the number of 3D NAND layers, as seen in their latest 10th generation 332-layer V-NAND flash [4]. - Micron plans to cut costs in its NAND flash business while continuing to offer high-capacity enterprise SSDs to boost profitability [4].