证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 08 27 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 央地财政关系的历史、现状和前景分析 今日概览 重磅研报 【固定收益】央地财政关系的历史、现状和前景分析——20250826 研究视点 【有色金属】锑：7 月供应大幅下滑，锑品出口收紧或接近尾声—— 20250826 【计算机】寒武纪-U（688256.SH）-时代的主角，利润率大超预期—— 20250827 【计算机】中科创达（300496.SZ）-AI 端侧成为重要成长动力，智能软 件与汽车业务提供稳健基本盘——20250827 【环保】聚光科技（300203.SZ）-业绩短期承压，高端科学仪器发力在 即——20250827 【食品饮料】今世缘（603369.SH）-充分释压，行稳致远——20250827 【建材】赛特新材（688398.SH）-国内市场价格和盈利阶段性承压，新 国标或带来显著订单增量——20250827 【食品饮料】农夫山泉（09633.HK）-龙头强势恢复，业绩表现亮眼—— 20250827 【环保】华宏科技（002645.SZ）-利润大幅增长，稀土价格回升&新增 产能提升盈利弹性——202 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The home appliance market is expected to show resilient growth in the first half of 2025, driven by the trade-in policy, although significant differentiation among industry players is evident [1][2] - The color TV market is experiencing a steady recovery, with both volume and revenue growth in the first half of 2025 [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Sichuan Changhong's net profit, excluding non-recurring gains, is expected to decline year-on-year, while the company anticipates a net profit of 4.39 billion to 5.71 billion yuan, an increase of 56.53% to 103.59% due to significant non-recurring gains [2][3] - Skyworth Group expects a nearly 50% decline in after-tax net profit, primarily due to the ongoing downturn in the real estate market and sluggish sales [3] - Konka Group forecasts a narrowed loss, with a net profit ranging from -500 million to -360 million yuan, despite a year-on-year increase of 54.03% to 66.90% in net profit [3] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The kitchen appliance sector is heavily impacted by the real estate market and export policies, with Supor experiencing revenue growth without profit increase, and major players like Liren Technology and Shuaifeng Electric facing significant profit declines [1][5] - TCL Technology expects revenue between 82.6 billion to 90.6 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.8 billion to 2 billion yuan, driven by strong growth in its semiconductor display business [2] - The air conditioning, refrigerator, and washing machine markets are undergoing deep adjustments, with Hisense Home Appliances reporting a slight revenue increase of 1.44% to 49.34 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 3.01% [5][6] Group 4: Emerging Trends - XGIMI Technology anticipates a revenue of 1.626 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.63%, and a net profit of 88.66 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 2062.33% [4] - The small appliance sector remains sluggish, with Supor's revenue increasing by 4.68% to 11.478 billion yuan, but net profit declining slightly by 0.07% [6][7] - Companies like Beiding and Aishida are showing signs of recovery, with Beiding's revenue growing by 34.05% to 430 million yuan and net profit increasing by 74.92% [7]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Meida Industrial Co., Ltd. ("Zhejiang Meida") has announced a significant decline in its expected net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to a slowdown in the integrated stove industry and various market challenges [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of 11.5 million to 15.5 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 84.11% to 88.21% [3][4]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be between 10 million and 14 million yuan, down 85.59% to 89.71% compared to the previous year [3][4]. - Basic earnings per share are anticipated to be between 0.018 yuan and 0.024 yuan, compared to 0.15 yuan in the same period last year [4]. Industry Context - The integrated stove industry, which previously experienced rapid growth with a compound annual growth rate of 55.4% from 2016 to 2018, has faced significant challenges, with retail sales expected to decline by 30.6% in 2024 [5]. - In 2024, Zhejiang Meida reported revenue of 877 million yuan, a decrease of 47.54% year-on-year, and a net profit of 110 million yuan, down 76.21% [5][6]. Strategic Outlook - Despite the current challenges, Zhejiang Meida remains optimistic about future growth, focusing on core business areas and diversifying its product matrix with an emphasis on AI and integrated solutions [6]. - The company plans to enhance channel transformation and improve operational efficiency to achieve sustainable development and increase shareholder value [6]. Investment Activity - In June, Zhejiang Meida announced an investment of approximately 110 million yuan in Motovis Limited, a smart driving solution provider, indicating a strategic move to capitalize on growth opportunities in the smart driving sector [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Meida's investment in Magic Vision Technology marks its entry into the smart driving sector, reflecting a strategic move to overcome growth bottlenecks faced by traditional manufacturing companies [1][2]. Investment Details - Zhejiang Meida plans to invest 110 million yuan to acquire a 4.8657% stake in Magic Vision Technology, which specializes in smart driving technology [2]. - The investment includes 10.03 million USD in newly registered capital and the purchase of 22791 USD in existing capital [2]. Company Background - Zhejiang Meida is primarily focused on integrated kitchen appliances, including a range of cooking and water purification products, and was the first company in the integrated stove industry to be listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2]. - Magic Vision Technology is an innovative company dedicated to the research and production of autonomous driving and advanced driver-assistance systems [2]. Market Context - The smart driving industry is experiencing rapid growth, with increasing penetration rates in both passenger and commercial vehicles [2]. - The investment is seen as a way for Zhejiang Meida to capitalize on the growth opportunities in the smart driving sector and enhance shareholder returns [2]. Financial Performance - Magic Vision Technology's post-investment valuation is estimated at 2.261 billion yuan, despite projected revenues of 375 million yuan and a net loss of 148 million yuan for 2024 [3]. - The company has not yet reached breakeven and requires significant ongoing investment in research and development [3]. Industry Trends - The trend of cross-industry integration is prevalent in the home appliance sector, with companies like Gujia Home and Daya Shengxiang diversifying into new business areas [6][8]. - The home furnishing industry is increasingly moving towards a "big home" model, integrating home appliances, furniture, and home decoration [9]. Risks and Opportunities - The cross-industry approach presents both risks and opportunities, as companies must align new ventures with their core strategies to avoid resource wastage and market disorder [1][9]. - The rapid technological advancements in the smart driving sector pose challenges, including competition and the need for continuous innovation [3].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Meida, known as the "first stock of integrated stoves," is actively engaging in capital market activities, including significant share reductions by its chairman and a strategic investment in the intelligent driving sector [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Zhejiang Meida reported a revenue of 877 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 47.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 110 million yuan, down 76.21% [7]. - The company has experienced continuous revenue decline over the past three years, with revenue growth rates of -15.24%, -8.80%, and -47.54% from 2022 to 2024, respectively [7]. Market Context - The integrated stove industry, once experiencing rapid growth with a compound annual growth rate of 55.4% from 2016 to 2018, has faced significant market pressures, leading to a projected retail market decline of 30.6% in 2024 [6][7]. - The overall market for integrated stoves in China is expected to reach approximately 17.3 billion yuan in 2024, down from previous highs [6]. Strategic Investment - Zhejiang Meida has invested approximately 110 million yuan in Magic Vision Technology, acquiring a 4.8657% stake, indicating a strategic move into the intelligent driving sector [3][4]. - The investment is seen as a way to capitalize on the growth opportunities in the intelligent driving industry, which is experiencing rapid development due to increasing market penetration [4][6]. Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, Zhejiang Meida's management expresses confidence in the long-term potential of the integrated stove market, citing factors such as economic development and policy support as drivers for future growth [7]. - The company plans to actively seek new development opportunities and invest in quality projects that align with its core business [7].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing downturn in the real estate market is negatively impacting the kitchen appliance industry, particularly the integrated stove sector, prompting leading companies to accelerate diversification efforts [2][9]. Group 1: Company Developments - Zhejiang Meida announced an investment in the intelligent driving company Magic Vision Technology, marking its entry into the smart driving sector with a total investment of approximately 110 million RMB [3]. - Other major players in the integrated stove market, such as Mars, Yitian Smart, and Shuaifeng Electric, are also expanding into new areas like robotics and computing infrastructure [2][6]. - The investment in Magic Vision is seen as a strategic move to leverage the growth potential in the smart driving industry, which is experiencing rapid development due to increasing penetration rates of intelligent driving systems [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The integrated stove industry has faced significant challenges since 2022, with companies experiencing substantial declines in revenue and net profit [9]. - The overall market for integrated stoves is projected to remain weak, with a 30.6% year-on-year decline in retail sales in 2024, indicating a difficult adjustment period for the industry [11]. - Emerging product categories, such as integrated cooking centers, are gaining traction, with a reported growth of over 100% in 2024, posing a competitive threat to traditional integrated stoves [12]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Zhejiang Meida's revenue and net profit have seen significant declines, with a 47.54% drop in revenue and a 76.21% drop in net profit projected for 2024 [9]. - Other companies in the integrated stove sector, including Mars and Yitian Smart, have also reported substantial declines in financial performance, with some facing losses [9][11]. - The stock prices of these companies have generally trended downward since their peak in 2021, reflecting the challenging market conditions [9].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Meida, a leading integrated stove manufacturer, has announced an investment in the autonomous driving sector, acquiring a stake in Magic Vision Technology for a total of 110 million yuan, reflecting a strong belief in the industry's growth potential [2][4]. Investment Details - The investment consists of 100.8 million yuan for subscribing to new registered capital and 9.1664 million yuan for acquiring existing shares, totaling 110 million yuan [2]. - Post-transaction, Zhejiang Meida will hold 4.8657% of Magic Vision, which has a post-investment valuation of 2.261 billion yuan [2]. Financial Performance of Magic Vision - As of the end of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, Magic Vision's net assets were 35.085 million yuan and 30.361 million yuan, respectively [3]. - The company's projected revenue for 2024 is 375 million yuan, with a net loss of 14.784 million yuan, while the first quarter of 2025 shows revenue of 71.81 million yuan and a net loss of 32.196 million yuan [3]. Industry Context - Magic Vision focuses on R&D and mass production of autonomous driving and advanced driver-assistance technologies, providing comprehensive solutions for various driving scenarios [4]. - The autonomous driving industry is experiencing rapid growth, with increasing penetration rates in both passenger and commercial vehicles [4]. Zhejiang Meida's Recent Performance - Zhejiang Meida has faced significant challenges, with a 32% decline in net profit in 2022 and a further 76% drop in 2024, resulting in a net profit of only 11 million yuan [4][5]. - The company's stock price has significantly decreased, with a market value of 4.619 billion yuan as of June 13, down nearly two-thirds from its peak in 2021 [6].

Group 1: Brand Recognition and Awards - The "2025 Home New National Goods Brand Index (HNBI)" was released, with Senge Integrated Stove achieving a brand index of 2217.5, a 4% increase, and winning three major awards, establishing itself as the leading brand in the integrated stove industry [1] - Senge's brand growth index has a compound annual growth rate of 12.1%, significantly exceeding the industry average, with offline stores covering 1200 cities and online sales leading in major e-commerce events [3] Group 2: Marketing and Consumer Engagement - Senge employs innovative "sports marketing" strategies, associating with Olympic champions to enhance brand recognition and loyalty, and has launched initiatives like "China wins a gold, Senge waives an order" during the Asian Games [3] - The company has initiated the "Champion Kitchen Plan" and "Champion Healthy Diet Promotion Plan" to further engage consumers and promote brand values [3] Group 3: Product Innovation and Quality - Senge is transforming the kitchen appliance industry by offering integrated kitchen solutions, focusing on stainless steel products that ensure durability and sustainability, with a 30-year lifespan and 85% recyclability [5] - The company emphasizes smart features in its products, such as intelligent sensing lights and electric drawers, enhancing user experience and functionality [7] Group 4: Technological Advancements - Senge's 5G smart factory is a benchmark for the industry, achieving full-process intelligent production and a capacity of one million units annually, setting a new standard for smart manufacturing in China [8][10] - The company has developed nearly 500 patents and led the formulation of over 30 national standards, showcasing its commitment to innovation and industry leadership [12] Group 5: Social Responsibility and Community Engagement - Senge promotes the "Champion Healthy Diet National Promotion Plan," benefiting over 5 million families, and has initiated the "Green Kitchen Plan" to support rural revitalization through donations of smart kitchen appliances [13] - The company embodies the "technology for good" philosophy, actively participating in social responsibility initiatives [13] Group 6: Future Outlook - Senge aims to lead the industry towards a scene-based ecosystem, leveraging its 5G smart factory and global R&D center to enhance its market position and drive growth in the home appliance sector [15] - The company is committed to becoming a guardian of quality living for families globally, reflecting its ambition to transition from "Made in China" to "Intelligent Manufacturing in China" [15]

Summary of Marsman's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Marsman - **Industry**: Integrated kitchen appliances, specifically focusing on integrated stoves Key Points and Arguments 1. **2024 Revenue Decline**: Marsman reported a 10.1% year-over-year decline in revenue for 2024, with integrated stove revenue down 37.94% due to a sluggish real estate market and consumer downgrade effects. However, offline direct sales increased by 84% due to government subsidies [2][4][5] 2. **Sales Channel Performance**: The company experienced significant declines in dealer and e-commerce revenues, down 23.3% and 51.8% respectively. Integrated stove sales volume decreased by 34%, with an average selling price reduction of 315 yuan. Water-washing product sales grew by 2%, but the average price also fell by 600 yuan [2][4][5][6] 3. **Cost Management**: Marsman saved over 60 million yuan through cost-cutting measures, but the reduction in sales, R&D, and management expenses did not fully offset the revenue decline, leading to a substantial drop in net profit [2][7] 4. **Market Share and Industry Challenges**: The integrated stove industry faced a 30% drop in retail sales and over 27% in retail volume in 2024. Marsman's market share fell from 12% to 11%, with increased competition and declining gross margins [2][8] 5. **Strategic Initiatives**: The company plans to overcome challenges through multi-category R&D, channel transformation, and product innovation, including launching new second-generation products and targeting the old housing renovation market [2][10] 6. **Investment in Robotics**: Marsman established the Qiongqing Super Fund to invest in the robotics and components industry, aiming to explore opportunities aligned with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's acquisition and restructuring policies [2][15] 7. **Sales Performance in 2024**: The company achieved a revenue of 1.376 billion yuan in 2024, a 35.68% decline, with a net profit of 11.15 million yuan, down 95%. The first quarter saw a 15.4% revenue drop, with subsequent quarters showing over 42% declines [4][8] 8. **Future Market Strategy**: Marsman aims to capture the stock housing market through promotional campaigns and by enhancing customer engagement, targeting over 100,000 home visits in 2025 [10][20] 9. **Product Development Plans**: The company is focusing on new product categories, including dishwashers, and plans to enhance consumer experience and market penetration [13][20] 10. **Impact of Real Estate Market**: The downturn in the real estate sector has significantly pressured the integrated stove industry, particularly in lower-tier cities, prompting Marsman to strengthen its old-for-new business model [9][18] Additional Important Insights - **Cost Structure**: The average cost per unit for integrated stoves rose to approximately 3,000 yuan, while the cost for water-washing products decreased to about 3,490 yuan [7] - **Industry Trends**: The integrated stove market is experiencing a downward trend, with retail sales and volume both declining significantly. The market is expected to stabilize as government policies aim to support the housing market [9][12] - **Competitive Landscape**: The number of small integrated stove brands has decreased significantly, with Marsman's market share potentially increasing as weaker competitors exit the market [19] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of Marsman's conference call, highlighting the company's current challenges, strategic responses, and future outlook in the integrated kitchen appliance industry.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.376 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 35.68%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 11.15 million yuan, down 95.49% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was -2.95 million yuan, a decline of 101.10% year-on-year [2][6]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 363 million yuan, down 36.15% year-on-year, with a net profit of -3.94 million yuan, a decline of 116.00% year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of -11.80 million yuan, down 118.30% year-on-year [2][6]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to the weak real estate market, which has suppressed new demand, and a shift in consumer preferences towards more flexible and segmented products, impacting the integrated stove market [12][12]. - Despite the challenges, the company maintains its leading position in the integrated stove market, with a revenue of 1.165 billion yuan from integrated stoves, a year-on-year decline of 37.94%, while still holding the top position in online retail sales [12][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin decreased by 3.96 percentage points to 43.03% in 2024, with the gross margin for integrated stove products at 44.07%, down 3.93 percentage points [12]. - The sales expense ratio increased by 5.49 percentage points to 27.73%, while the management expense ratio rose by 3.00 percentage points to 8.70% [12]. - The company reported an operating profit of -36.49 million yuan in 2024, a decline of 114.55% year-on-year [12]. Market Conditions - The overall integrated stove market faced significant challenges, with a total retail sales of 17.3 billion yuan in 2024, down 30.6% year-on-year [12]. - The online retail sales in the integrated stove market were 2.647 billion yuan, down 38.84% year-on-year, indicating pressure in both online and offline markets [12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain stable growth and operational performance, with projected net profits of 107 million yuan, 111 million yuan, and 117 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [12].