Core Viewpoint - Bilibili has established itself as a leading video community in China, leveraging its unique operational model to become a significant player in the IP derivative market, with nearly 200 self-owned and authorized IPs by the end of 2024 [1] Group 1: Business Highlights - Bilibili's AI tool "Peanut" is set to enhance content production and optimize advertising placements, which is expected to improve eCPM [2] - The advertising business is expected to grow significantly, with revenues projected to increase by 27.7% in 2024 and 20% in the first half of 2025, reaching 8.2 billion and 4.4 billion respectively [3] - The gaming segment is performing well, with revenue of 3.3 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a 68% year-on-year increase, driven by both established titles and new releases [3] Group 2: Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 29.96 billion, 32.62 billion, and 35.32 billion from 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12%, 9%, and 8% respectively [4] - Adjusted net profit is expected to be 2.26 billion, 3.26 billion, and 4.32 billion for the same period, with significant growth rates of 44% and 33% in 2026 and 2027 [4] - The company is in a commercialization acceleration phase, with AI expected to further enhance content creation efficiency and diversify monetization strategies [4]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtai Securities projects Bilibili (09626) to achieve total revenue of 29.96 billion, 32.62 billion, and 35.32 billion yuan in 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth of +12%, +9%, and +8% respectively, and adjusted net profit of 2.26 billion, 3.26 billion, and 4.32 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of +44% and +33% in 2026 and 2027. The average dynamic PE for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 26x. The company is in a commercialization acceleration phase, and AI is expected to enhance content creation efficiency and diversify commercialization methods, significantly impacting its advertising and gaming businesses, leading to an "overweight" rating for the first coverage [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Bilibili is a leading video community in China, driven by a unique operational model and has become a significant player in the IP derivative market. By the end of 2024, the company will operate nearly 200 self-owned and authorized IPs, including national creations and comics. Since launching its official derivative brand in 2020, Bilibili has gradually built a core development model focused on "IP incubation and content empowerment," leveraging its high-engagement community and content ecosystem, and expanding into niche brands like figurines and blind boxes to enhance IP commercial value and cross-industry engagement [1]. Group 2: Business Highlights - AI: The "Peanut AI" tool is set to enhance content production and optimize ad placements, boosting eCPM. The AIGC tool will officially launch in Q4 2025, aimed at improving content quality and increasing traffic (DAU and per capita VV). It lowers the barrier for non-professionals to participate in content creation and enriches content diversity and innovation. Additionally, the InsightAgent system will integrate with various platforms to provide tailored AI solutions for different marketing scenarios [2]. - Advertising: Bilibili's advertising strategy includes three main approaches: single product promotions via Huohuo, oCPX effect ads, and brand advertising. Revenue from advertising is projected to grow by 27.7% and 20% in 2024 and the first half of 2025, reaching 8.2 billion and 4.4 billion yuan respectively. In Q3 2025, Bilibili's DAU reached 117 million, a 9% increase, with a DAU to MAU ratio of 31% and an average daily usage time of 112 minutes, up 6%. The company maintains a conservative approach to advertising commercialization, with an ad load rate of only 5-8%, indicating significant room for growth [3]. - Gaming: The gaming segment benefits from long-term operations of established games and new titles contributing incremental revenue. In H1 2025, gaming revenue reached 3.3 billion yuan, a 68% increase, driven by the success of "Three Kingdoms: Strategizing the World" and other enduring titles like "FGO" and "Azur Lane." The new game "Escape from Duckkov" has received positive feedback and is expected to contribute additional revenue [3].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtai Securities projects Bilibili (09626) to achieve total revenue of 29.96 billion, 32.62 billion, and 35.32 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of +12%, +9%, and +8% respectively, with adjusted net profit expected to be 2.26 billion, 3.26 billion, and 4.32 billion yuan, showing significant growth of +44% and +33% in 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Bilibili is a leading video community in China, driven by a unique operational model and has become a significant player in the IP derivative market, operating nearly 200 self-owned and authorized IPs by the end of 2024 [2] - The company has developed an "IP incubation and content empowerment" model, leveraging its high-engagement community and content ecosystem, and has established a brand for derivative products since 2020 [2] Group 2: Business Highlights - AI marketing is enhancing content production and optimizing ad placements, with the launch of the "Peanut" AIGC tool expected to improve content quality and increase traffic [3] - Bilibili's advertising revenue is projected to grow by 27.7% and 20% in 2024 and the first half of 2025, reaching 8.2 billion and 4.4 billion yuan respectively, with a daily active user (DAU) count of 117 million in Q3 2025, reflecting a 9% year-on-year increase [4] - The gaming segment is benefiting from both long-term operations of existing games and new game launches, with gaming revenue reaching 3.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 68% year-on-year increase [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading IP ecosystem platform in China, leveraging content and community operations to drive growth. It has developed nearly 200 IPs and is enhancing its commercial value through a unique product development model [6][11]. - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 29.96 billion, 32.62 billion, and 35.32 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 9%, and 8% respectively. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 2.26 billion, 3.26 billion, and 4.33 billion yuan, with significant growth in the latter two years [44][43]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a total share capital of 413.76 million shares, with a market price of HKD 190.80, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately HKD 78.95 billion [1]. - The company has undergone significant development since its inception in 2009, evolving from a community platform to a comprehensive video community with a focus on IP development and commercialization [10][11]. Business Highlights - AI marketing is enhancing content production and optimizing advertising efficiency, with the introduction of the "Peanut AI" tool expected to significantly improve content creation and advertising effectiveness [25][27]. - The advertising business is projected to grow substantially, with revenues expected to increase by 27.7% and 20% in 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively [29][31]. - The gaming segment is also showing strong performance, with revenues from established games and new releases contributing to overall growth. The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" has been a key driver of revenue [37][34]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see a steady increase in revenue and profitability, with adjusted net profits turning positive by 2025. The projected P/E ratio for 2025 is 32.2, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [41][44]. - The financial analysis indicates a significant improvement in gross margins, expected to reach 39.6% by 2027, driven by operational efficiencies and revenue growth [43][20].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see a slight revenue growth in Q3 2025, driven by various business segments, while the gaming sector faces challenges with declining sales [4][5]. Revenue Forecast - The company anticipates Q3 2025 revenue of 7.65 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 4.7%. The revenue breakdown by business segment is as follows: gaming at 1.52 billion RMB (down 16.5%), VAS at 3.12 billion RMB (up 10.5%), advertising at 2.52 billion RMB (up 20%), and e-commerce at 490 million RMB (down 14%) [4]. Gaming Business Update - The self-developed game "Escape from Duckov" launched globally on October 16, achieving over 500,000 sales within three days and surpassing 1 million sales by October 22, with a projected revenue of over 150 million RMB [5][6]. - The international version of "Dudu Face Prank" was released on October 9, generating an estimated revenue of 4.02 million RMB in its first three days, with Japan, Taiwan, and the USA being the largest markets [5][6]. - A new game titled "Three Kingdoms Hundred Generals Card" is in development, targeting strategy game enthusiasts and expected to enter testing on October 30, with a launch anticipated in early 2026 [6]. AI Product Development - The company has launched AI translation features for content creators, enhancing user engagement and experience. Additionally, an AI video tool named "Peanut AI" is in internal testing, allowing creators to generate videos quickly [7]. - In advertising, the company has introduced AI capabilities across the ad placement process to improve creative efficiency and effectiveness, including AI-generated titles and automatic modifications of rejected materials [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 7.65 billion RMB in Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 4.7%. The revenue breakdown by business segment includes gaming at 1.52 billion RMB (down 16.5% YoY), VAS at 3.12 billion RMB (up 10.5% YoY), advertising at 2.52 billion RMB (up 20% YoY), and e-commerce at 490 million RMB (down 14% YoY) [1] - The self-developed game "Escape from Duckkov" has exceeded expectations with sales surpassing 1 million copies within a week of its global release, potentially generating over 150 million RMB in revenue [2] - The company is actively enhancing its AI product functionalities, including AI translation and video generation tools for content creators, as well as integrating AI capabilities into its advertising offerings to improve efficiency and effectiveness [3] Revenue Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to generate revenues of 22.53 billion RMB in 2023, increasing to 36.42 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.8% [4] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are revised to 2.44 billion RMB, 3.77 billion RMB, and 4.83 billion RMB respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment of 14%, 7%, and 4% compared to previous estimates [3]

Summary of Bilibili's Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Bilibili (B站) - **Date of Call**: October 16, 2025 Key Points Industry and User Metrics - Daily Active Users (DAU) reached 110 million, a year-over-year increase of 7% [2][4] - Monthly Active Users (MAU) grew by 8% year-over-year [2] - Average user engagement time reached 105 minutes, an increase of 6 minutes year-over-year, indicating enhanced user stickiness [2] Financial Performance - Advertising revenue grew by 20% year-over-year, with quarterly revenue nearing 2.5 billion yuan [2][4] - Game business saw a 60% year-over-year increase, primarily due to low base effects and contributions from "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" [2][5] - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected at 2.33 billion yuan, with a potential increase to over 3.5 billion yuan if "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" exceeds expectations [4][16] Advertising Business Outlook - The advertising business has significant growth potential, driven by a younger user demographic whose average age has increased from around 20 to nearly 26 since the IPO [7] - Advertising efficiency is improving, with effect ads growing at 30%-40% and ad load expected to rise from 6% to 7%, with a potential increase to 10% [7] - New advertising scenarios such as live streaming and mini-programs are expected to release more advertising inventory [7] Game Development and Expectations - The new game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" is anticipated to launch between late 2025 and early 2026, with expectations of achieving 3-4 million DAU and annual revenue potential of 1-2.5 billion yuan [2][11] - The game is designed to attract a large user base and is positioned similarly to other successful titles [10] - Bilibili has also secured licenses for two additional games, which could contribute positively to EPS [12] AI Technology Integration - AI technology is enhancing content creation, recommendation algorithms, and advertising efficiency [6][14] - The penetration of AI tools like "Peanut AI" is expected to improve user experience and platform efficiency [6] - AI-driven advertising is projected to exceed 50% penetration by the end of the year [15] Future Initiatives - Upcoming features include AI-generated content tools and enhanced recommendation algorithms set to launch in 2026 [8] - The "Charging Plan" in VAS (Value-Added Services) is experiencing rapid growth, with a three-digit year-over-year increase [13] Profitability and Valuation - The company anticipates a 43% year-over-year increase in net profit for 2026, with a potential upward revision if new games perform well [16] - A PEG valuation method suggests a market cap exceeding 100 billion yuan based on projected earnings [16] Additional Insights - The gaming sector faces challenges in the second half of the year due to high base effects from previous titles [9] - The success of "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" is critical for future EPS projections and overall company performance [3][9]

Core Insights - The Sora App has gained significant popularity, ranking first on the iOS free app chart in the U.S. for eight consecutive days since October 4, with Google search interest increasing by 150% since the beginning of the year [1] - The app's creator share is 70%, indicating a low barrier to entry that stimulates creative enthusiasm, with IP monetization potential becoming evident, as seen with Jake Paul's AI-related videos surpassing 1 billion views [1] - The gaming industry showed strong performance during the National Day holiday, with key titles like "Delta Force," "Fantasy Westward Journey," and "Supernatural Action Group" seeing daily revenue increase by approximately 50% compared to the summer [1] - Tencent's FPS games are expanding their market through differentiated positioning, with "Delta Force" focusing on hardcore gameplay and "Peacekeeper Elite" targeting younger audiences [1] - AI video tools are lowering the barriers for content creation, with Bilibili testing the AI video platform "Huasheng AI," which is expected to enhance UP主 penetration rates and user engagement [1] Industry Overview - The gaming ETF (516010) tracks the anime and gaming index (930901), which selects listed companies involved in anime production, game development, platform operation, and related industries from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - This index aims to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in the anime and gaming sector, focusing on innovation and growth within the industry, covering the entire value chain from content creation to distribution channels [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - **Industry**: AI Applications and Social Media - **Company**: Sora App and its impact on traditional social media and short video platforms Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Sora 2's Technological Advancements**: Sora 2 enhances AI video realism by simulating physical world laws and synchronizing audio and video output, lowering the barrier for user-generated AI videos [1][2][4] 2. **Impact on Traditional Platforms**: Sora 2 may significantly affect traditional social media and short video platforms by attracting users with its low content creation threshold and innovative social features, potentially threatening platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou [4][10] 3. **AI Integration in Daily Tools**: The integration of ChatGPT with third-party applications signifies a deeper embedding of AI technology into everyday tools, prompting domestic companies to accelerate their AI ecosystem development [5][6] 4. **Chinese Internet Companies' Growth**: Chinese internet companies excel in scaling products, with e-commerce retail size three times that of the U.S. and mobile gaming contributing nearly 40% of the global market share [7] 5. **Domestic AI Developments**: Domestic companies have made significant strides in AI-generated images and videos, with Douyin's trending topic generating over 14 million views [8][9] 6. **Sora's Market Position**: Sora's rapid popularity has helped cultivate user habits for AI video consumption, serving as an incremental growth factor rather than a disruptive force for existing platforms [10] 7. **OpenAI's Shift to Monetization**: OpenAI is transitioning from model advancement to productization and monetization, with expectations that revenue from subscriptions will decrease while income from API calls will rise [11] 8. **Potential for Super Apps in China**: Major Chinese companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance have the potential to create super apps that could rival the complete mobile application ecosystem [12] 9. **IP Revenue Sharing**: The use of classic anime IPs in AI-generated content raises copyright issues, with potential revenue-sharing agreements between OpenAI and IP holders [13] 10. **Kuaishou's Recovery**: Kuaishou's C-end app revenue has stabilized and is slowly recovering, with a new model reducing costs by 30% and achieving global leadership in image-to-video capabilities [14][15] Additional Important Insights 1. **Keling's Competitive Edge**: Keling's traditional DIT architecture offers unique advantages in video modeling, with a market potential of $140 billion, where AI could penetrate $50 billion in the short term [16] 2. **Sora's Limitations**: Sora's lack of detail control makes it less suitable for artistic creators compared to Keling, which supports collaborative workflows [17] 3. **Keling's Growth Prospects**: Keling's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted annual revenue of 2 billion RMB, driven by overseas market expansion [18] 4. **Kuaishou's Advertising Growth**: Kuaishou's advertising business is projected to grow steadily, with a target market value of 500 billion RMB by 2026 [19] 5. **Bilibili's AI Integration**: Bilibili is testing a new AI tool that helps creators generate videos quickly, potentially increasing active creator numbers significantly [20][21] 6. **Bilibili's Game Development**: Bilibili's upcoming game "Three Kingdoms Hundred Generals" is expected to become a major revenue driver, with a projected annual revenue of 1 to 2 billion RMB [23] 7. **Meitu's Overseas Strategy**: Meitu's overseas revenue has grown significantly, with a 56% year-on-year increase, driven by its core products [29] 8. **Focus on AI in E-commerce**: Worth Buying is enhancing its AI capabilities, including a new shopping assistant app, which is expected to improve user experience and drive revenue growth [36][37] 9. **Wondershare's AI Revenue**: Wondershare's AI revenue is projected to double this year, driven by updates to existing applications and a growing mobile user base [38] 10. **Guangyun Technology's Growth**: Guangyun Technology's core agent products are experiencing rapid growth, with a focus on e-commerce platforms and a positive outlook for profitability [39][41]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant performance of the Huaxia Sci-Tech AI ETF (589010), which rose by 2.75%, reaching a new high in net value over the past 60 trading days, driven by strong momentum in the market [1] - The largest holding, Cambricon Technologies, achieved a 20% limit-up, with its market capitalization surpassing 350 billion yuan, representing 10.7% of the ETF's weight [1] - Other notable stocks such as Chipone Technology and Yuntian Lifei also saw increases, with trading volume exceeding 23 million and a turnover rate of nearly 30%, indicating a vibrant market [1] Group 2 - Open Source Securities noted that advancements in GPT-5, particularly in reducing hallucinations and enhancing coding capabilities, will accelerate the commercialization of AI applications, suggesting continued investment in AI-related sectors such as AI companionship, creation, e-commerce, marketing, education, search, and insurance [2] - The Huaxia Sci-Tech AI ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board AI Index, covering high-quality enterprises across the entire industry chain, benefiting from high R&D investment and policy support [2]