2025年夏天，一部名为《扫毒风暴》的剧集在荧屏上刮起了一阵不小的旋风。剧集以20世纪90年代广东陆丰的"雷霆扫毒"大案为原型，讲述缉毒警察林强 峰与毒枭卢少骅之间跨越多年的生死博弈。观众跟着偏向纪实性的镜头追剧，直呼后劲十足。 （图/微博@扫毒风暴） 这部剧也再次让一个老问题变得新鲜——刑侦剧，只要改编自真实案件，就一定能成为一部好作品吗？ 过去这一年，从开年的《漂白》，到年尾的《命悬一生》，从聚焦打拐的《利剑·玫瑰》，到揭秘间谍的《绝密较量》，国产公安题材剧集前所未有地繁 荣。它们中的绝大多数，都打上了"改编自真实案件"的标签。然而，在这些真实案件的光环之下，有的剧集成了现象级爆款，有的却引发了巨大争议，还 有的在默默播出后被迅速遗忘。 真实，究竟是刑侦剧的"灵丹妙药"，还是必须小心处理的"双刃剑"？或许，我们可以从2025年的作品中，找到一些答案。 真实带来的"重"与"信" 不可否认，真实案件的确能为现实主义题材的刑侦剧，带来无可替代的质感与分量。 首先，是情感的重量。《扫毒风暴》的编剧陈育新，曾参与创作《破冰行动》《湄公河大案》等多部知名影视作品。在创作前，他也曾前往禁毒一线，一 位老队长的话让他深受 ...

Core Insights - The domestic leading film and television companies serve as a barometer for the entire industry, reflecting market dynamics through their project activities [1] Industry Trends - Long video content remains resilient despite competition from short videos and short dramas, as evidenced by the stable production frequency and project reserves of leading companies [2] - Content is increasingly distributed across multiple platforms, with collaborations among major companies and significant platforms like Douyin and Red Fruit for micro-short dramas [3] - A majority of traditional film and television companies, approximately 80%, have entered the short drama sector, establishing dedicated brands or subsidiaries for short dramas [3] - Companies are building comprehensive industry chains, with examples like Huace Film & TV expanding into film education and AI technology applications in production [3] Project Dynamics - Huace Group has several upcoming projects, including long dramas like "Guose Fanghua" and "Jinxiu Fanghua," and films such as "Assassination Novelist 2" scheduled for 2025 [5][9] - Zhengwu Sunshine will release dramas like "Cuihuo Niandai" and "Cherry Amber" in 2025, along with its first theatrical film "De Xian Jin Zhi" [13][14] - Lingmeng Film will present long dramas like "Shujuan Yimeng" and "Ziyue Gui" in 2025, and has international collaborations for "Thirty Only: Bangkok Edition" [16][20] - Newli Media plans to air several dramas in 2025, including "Saodu Fengbao" and "Yashe," along with the film "Qingsheng 3" [24][26] - Perfect World Film will showcase a variety of long dramas and micro-short dramas in 2025, including "Qian Duo Tao Hua Yi Shi Kai" and "Fuqi De Chun Jie" [30][32] - Huanyu Film will release dramas like "Wufu Linmen" and "Linjing Xian" in 2025, along with micro-short dramas [36][38] - Baiana Qiancheng will present multiple dramas and films in 2026, including "Xiao Cheng Da Shi" and "Xian Yu Fei Sheng" [42][44] - Xixi Film will air dramas like "Liu Zimei" and "Xiao Fang Chujia" in 2026 [46][48] - Yaoke Culture will release several dramas in 2026, including "Bing Hu Chong Sheng" and "Hua Kai Jin Xiu" [50][51] - Shengxi Huashi is focusing on original scripts and has established a subsidiary for short drama production, with projects like "Zhangxin" and "Yulan Huakai Jun Zai Lai" [54][57] - Daocaoxiong Entertainment will present a range of dramas in 2026, including "Liangjing Shiwur" and "Zai Qing Chun" [60][64] - Changxin Media is set to release various dramas in 2026, including "Wo De Shan Yu Hai" and "Yanyu Shen You Ji" [66][71]

Core Insights - The long drama market is expected to face a "bleak" end in 2025, with significant changes in industry dynamics anticipated due to a challenging environment [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The traditional "Big Six" production companies are experiencing a decline in both output and market share, with Huace Film and TV significantly reducing its new releases from seven to three this year [2] - New releases from New Classics Media have also decreased, with only one major drama expected in 2025 compared to multiple successful titles last year [3] - The overall production capacity of companies like Noon Sunshine and Ningmeng Media has remained stable, but their new releases have not matched the success of previous years [5] Group 2: Emerging Players - New players in the industry are fiercely competing, with companies like Changxin Media and Jiaxing Media gaining attention through successful new releases [14][16] - Quantum Pan Entertainment and Chunyu Media's collaboration on "Cang Hai Chuan" has emerged as a leading title in the male-oriented drama category, showcasing the potential of new entrants [21] - Other emerging companies like Xixi Film and Xinglian Film have also produced new works, indicating a slight recovery in their performance compared to last year [23] Group 3: Performance Metrics - The performance of dramas has varied significantly, with some productions achieving high ratings while others struggle to gain traction, reflecting the competitive nature of the market [9][11] - The drama "Xu Wo Yao Yan" from Jinhe Media has achieved notable success, marking a significant comeback for the company after a period of fewer hits [18] - The overall sentiment in the industry suggests that even successful productions are facing challenges in achieving blockbuster status, indicating a tough market environment [30]

Core Insights - The concept of "long tail" in the context of drama series is gaining traction among both audiences and streaming platforms, emphasizing the importance of sustained viewership and engagement beyond the initial airing period [1][2][4] - Streaming platforms are increasingly focusing on the long tail effect as a key metric for success, with several old dramas achieving significant viewership even after their original broadcast [2][4] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards valuing quality content that can maintain viewer interest over time, rather than solely relying on initial viewership numbers [6][14] Group 1: Long Tail Effect - The long tail effect is becoming a focal point for streaming platforms, with executives from major players like iQIYI, Youku, and Tencent Video highlighting its significance in various forums [2] - Data from Yunhe indicates that in 2024, seven old dramas achieved an average viewership exceeding 100 million, showcasing the growing importance of long tail metrics alongside peak viewership [2] - Platforms are implementing strategies such as "full series free viewing" to activate the long tail effect of past dramas, attracting new users [1][16] Group 2: Content Strategy - The industry is moving towards a "long + short" content ecosystem, where high-quality long-form content is essential for attracting and retaining users and advertisers [4][6] - The reduction in the number of new series being launched (271 in the first half of 2025, down by 33 from the previous year) indicates a strategic focus on extending the lifecycle of existing series [4][14] - Platforms are diversifying their definitions of long tail dramas, recognizing that any series with strong post-broadcast performance can be classified as such, regardless of its initial popularity [7][11] Group 3: Audience Engagement - The introduction of annual ranking lists, such as Youku's "Annual Bestsellers," reflects a shift in measuring a series' value over a longer time frame, encouraging ongoing viewer engagement [6] - Platforms are leveraging community interaction and user-generated content to maintain the relevance and visibility of older series, fostering a culture of sustained discussion and engagement [15][16] - The use of algorithms to recommend classic dramas to potential new viewers is a key strategy for enhancing the long tail effect [14][16]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the media and entertainment industry, focusing on the film, IP (Intellectual Property), gaming, online music, and AI sectors [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. Core Insights and Arguments Film Industry - The summer box office has shown significant improvement, with national box office revenue increasing by 74% year-on-year in the first two weeks of August, and audience numbers nearly doubling [1][4]. - Key films like "Nanjing Photo Studio" are projected to perform well, with expected box office exceeding 3 billion yuan [4]. - The logic of quality content driving box office demand remains valid, with upcoming films for the National Day holiday expected to sustain this trend [5]. IP Industry - The IP industry is accelerating its development, with companies transitioning from content creators to operators, enhancing their value through diversified revenue streams and vertical integration [1][6]. - Notable companies like Reading Group have seen their IP derivative business grow significantly, with GMV reaching 480 million yuan in the first half of 2025, nearing the total for the previous year [7][17]. Gaming Sector - The gaming sector has exceeded expectations in the first half of 2025, with companies like Xinyou, Huatuo, Perfect World, and Jibite validating the product cycles of mid-sized firms [9]. - Companies are focusing on resource strategies, with NetEase optimizing R&D resources and Xinyou launching one to two new games annually [9][10]. Online Music Industry - The online music industry shows competitive advantages and resilience in profitability, with Tencent Music's SVIP user growth strong, reaching a penetration rate of 12% [3][15][16]. - NetEase Cloud Music is in the early stages of commercialization, with significant improvements in customer acquisition ROI [16]. AI Applications - Discussions around AI applications focus on multi-modal AI, particularly in video models and advertising [11][12]. - The acceptance of AI-generated video by large B-end clients is increasing, with companies like Netflix and Disney utilizing AI tools for video production [11]. - In the AI advertising sector, companies are optimizing ad effectiveness to boost revenue, with platforms like Meta and Weibo highlighting the impact of AI on click-through rates [12]. Other Important Insights - The new policies from the National Radio and Television Administration are expected to benefit the long video and series industry by improving content supply and encouraging innovation [3][13][14]. - Long video platforms and production companies are likely to benefit from these policies, potentially improving cash flow and content quality [14]. - The IP derivative business of Reading Group is still in its early stages, with plans to expand product lines and explore new IP opportunities [17]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the media and entertainment industry.

Group 1 - The drama "Sweeping Drug Storm" has achieved significant viewership success, with a peak rating of 2.8568% on CCTV and over 700 million total views across platforms, indicating its status as a phenomenon in the summer drama market [2] - The series has maintained high engagement on social media, with viewers expressing excitement and discussing its intricate plot twists, particularly the significance of a candy wrapper in the storyline [2][3] - The character of Lu Shaohua, a high-IQ criminal, is portrayed as a complex individual, with his love for a specific candy, "Da Xia Su," serving as a key narrative element that humanizes him [5][6] Group 2 - The series conveys a strong message about the triumph of justice over evil, emphasizing the importance of quality in storytelling and production within the film industry [6][8] - The backdrop of the story, set in 1995, coincides with a flourishing period for the Chinese candy industry, highlighting the cultural significance of products like "Da Xia Su" during that time [11] - The company behind "Da Xia Su," Ma Dajie Foods, has established itself as a leader in the candy market, achieving nationwide sales recognition and innovating through a combination of traditional craftsmanship and modern technology [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance shows a decline in revenue and Non-IFRS net profit, but the results are in line with expectations, with a notable growth in other business segments excluding a specific impact from New丽传媒 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 3.191 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.9% - Non-IFRS net profit was 508 million yuan, down 27.7%, aligning with the company's forecast of 486 million yuan and Bloomberg's estimate of 484 million yuan [1] - Excluding the impact of New丽传媒, other business segments saw a 35.7% year-on-year growth in Non-IFRS net profit [1] Business Segments - Online business revenue showed a slight increase, with 1H25 online business revenue at 1.985 billion yuan, up 2.3% - Self-owned platform product revenue grew by 3.1%, while Tencent channel revenue fell by 25.6% due to a significant drop in MAU, attributed to a strategic shift towards paid reading products [1] - IP operation revenue in 1H25 was 1.205 billion yuan, down 46.4%, primarily due to no new series from New丽传媒 in the first half of the year [1][2] - The GMV for IP derivative products reached 480 million yuan, nearing the total of 500 million yuan for the previous year [1] Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin in 1H25 was 50.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points - The reduction in sales expenses was due to fewer film projects, leading to decreased promotional and advertising costs [2] - Management expenses also saw a slight year-on-year decline, indicating a more restrained approach [2] Future Outlook - The company has a rich reserve of series from New丽传媒, with several projects scheduled for release in 2025, including "扫毒风暴" and others [2] - The short drama business is set to expand, with over 2,000 web novel IPs being utilized to create high-quality short dramas [3] - The company plans to enhance its IP derivative product offerings, with a significant increase in the speed of new product launches [3] Valuation and Estimates - The company maintains its Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 - Current price corresponds to 21.2x and 18.4x Non-IFRS P/E for 2025 and 2026, respectively - The target price is set at 43.5 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 39.4% based on 30x and 26x Non-IFRS P/E for 2025 and 2026 [3]

Drama Section - The drama market is vibrant with both new and old works performing well during the summer season of 2025, with "In the Name of the Law" initially leading but later overtaken by "Drug Storm" [1][2] - "In the Name of the Law" scored 93.74, maintaining high viewership and social media engagement, but its Douban rating fell to 6.9 due to controversial ending [2][14] - "Drug Storm" saw a significant rise in ratings, achieving a peak Douban score of 8.0 and a daily viewership increase from 750,000 to over 3 million, becoming the second most-watched show [8][9] - Other notable dramas include "Morning Snow Record," "Mortal Cultivation," and "Splendid Blossoms," all of which performed well in various metrics [2][16] Variety Show Section - The travel exploration variety show "Earth Super Fresh" quickly rose to the top of the ratings, outperforming other shows like "Running Man Season 9" [19] - Three comedy variety shows, "Talk Show and Friends Season 2," "Comedy King Solo Season 2," and "Mahua Special Happiness Season 2," also ranked in the top five, indicating sustained popularity [22] - The increase in female comedians and topics related to women's issues in the comedy shows has contributed to their success, with a notable rise in female representation [22][23] - The new cooking show "One Meal to the Gods" faced plagiarism allegations, drawing attention for its similarities to the Netflix show "Black and White Chefs" [24][29]

Core Insights - The long drama market is experiencing a new round of competition with the release of several series, but the summer season is not as "hot" as expected, indicating a cooling trend in the market [1][3][5] Group 1: Market Performance - The leading series in the summer season, "In the Name of the Law," has an average viewership of approximately 50 million, while "Ling Jiang Xian" and "Shu Juan Yi Meng" are performing lower in market influence [3][6] - The top three series in the first half of 2025 were "Da Feng Da Geng Ren," "Cang Hai Chuan," and "Guo Se Fang Hua," with the highest viewership at 1.93 billion, which ranks fifth in 2024 [3][4] - The overall performance of the long drama market is declining, with fewer standout hits compared to previous years [3][5] Group 2: Genre Trends - The summer season has seen a diverse range of genres, including youth ensemble, historical entrepreneurship, fantasy adventure, ancient romance, and judicial crime dramas, indicating a shift from the dominance of ancient dramas [5][6] - Judicial crime dramas, particularly "In the Name of the Law" and "Drug Storm," have gained significant popularity and critical acclaim, suggesting a potential shift in audience preferences [6][9] Group 3: Audience Reception - Despite some series achieving high viewership, their ratings on platforms like Douban are not as impressive, indicating a disconnect between popularity and quality [9][19] - The ancient drama genre still holds a significant market share, with several series like "Ling Jiang Xian" and "Shu Juan Yi Meng" performing well in terms of viewership, although they do not match the success of previous years [6][9] Group 4: Industry Dynamics - The market is witnessing a debate over the standards for what constitutes a "hit" series, with platforms like iQIYI emphasizing the importance of comprehensive metrics for evaluating content popularity [15][19] - The trend of releasing similar genre series in succession rather than direct competition is becoming more common among platforms, aiming to capitalize on existing viewer interest [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The drama "Drug Storm" aims to present a sense of the times and destiny rather than just a story of police catching drug dealers [1] Group 1: Audience Reception and Performance - "Drug Storm" achieved a peak viewership rating of 4.0935%, making it the hottest drama of the summer season [2] - The show reached a total audience of 4.164 billion across all media platforms, with a total viewing time of 558 million hours, and 36.4% of viewers being young users [2] Group 2: Creative Team and Background - The director, Five Hundred, has a strong track record with previous successful works, and the writer, Chen Yuxin, has extensive experience in drug-related themes [2][3] - The story is based on the shocking Liu Zhaohua case, where 12.36 tons of new-type ice drugs were seized, significantly exceeding the total global seizure amount from the previous year [2] Group 3: Thematic Elements - The drama emphasizes the historical context of drug control in China, showcasing the transition from a nation plagued by opium to one with a zero-tolerance policy towards drugs [5] - The narrative structure employs dual protagonists, with the characters representing both law enforcement and drug trafficking, highlighting the complexities of the drug trade [6][8] Group 4: Narrative Style and Challenges - The show features a fast-paced narrative that intertwines multiple storylines, which may lead to confusion among viewers [11] - The portrayal of the psychological struggles faced by drug enforcement officers is a central theme, emphasizing the difficulties of identifying and apprehending criminals [8][11]