本文是由投资/产品专员而非分析师撰写的文章汇编。 它不构成研究报告，也不应被解释为研究报告，也不旨在提供 专业、投资或任何其他类型的建议或推荐。 CSIWM 个股点评 2026 年 3 月 6 日 本文内容由 Alex Wu (吴俊豪) 提供 中信证券财富管理(香港) 产品及投资方案部 中国互联网行业 电话：(852) 2237 9250 / 电邮：wminvestmentsolutions@citics.com.hk 广告动能强劲 摘要 中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在 2026 年 3 月 6 日发布的题为《Robust ad momentum》的报告，哔哩哔哩（Bilibili）2025 年四季度业绩超预期。总收入/调整后净利润同比增长 8%/94%至 83 亿元/8.78 亿元。超预期主要来自广告收入，同比增长 27%，得益于流量增长、搜索功能和小程序等场景广告库存增 加、eCPM 提升以及大语言模型开发商的广告投放增加。移动游戏收入因缺乏新爆款同比下降 14%。分析预计广告 增长动能将持续强劲。 哔哩哔哩 BILI US 催化因素 游戏版号审批常态化。与电商平台合作深化。故 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strong potential of the AI industry and high-growth segments such as gaming, recommending continued investment in these areas [2][13][16]. Group 1: Internet Sector - E-commerce: Alibaba is catalyzing AI-related developments, introducing the "Tongyun Ge" concept, which integrates large models, cloud computing, and chips as a key support for its technology strategy [2][16]. - Social Entertainment Media: Bilibili and Tencent are expected to see strong advertising momentum, with Tencent's gaming fundamentals improving and Bilibili preparing to release new games [2][17]. - Internet Healthcare: JD Health and Alibaba Health are leveraging their platform advantages to deepen collaborations with upstream pharmaceutical manufacturers, leading to sustained revenue and profit growth [2][17]. - Short Video: Kuaishou is maintaining a stable core business, with AI technology enhancing user engagement and commercial conversion [2][18]. - Trendy Toys + IP: Pop Mart announced the establishment of its European headquarters in London, aiming to expand its market presence [2][19]. - Long Video: Multiple platforms are releasing quality series, suggesting investment opportunities in iQIYI and Mango TV [2][20]. - Music Streaming: Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music show stable performance, although concerns about competition have led to valuation adjustments [2][20]. Group 2: Media Sector - Gaming: The report maintains a positive outlook on the gaming sector, with expectations of continued industry prosperity into 2026. Key recommendations include Tencent, NetEase, and companies with strong product pipelines like Century Huatong and Giant Network [2][21]. - Advertising: Adjustments in the advertising landscape are not expected to impact the operational trends of Focus Media, with increased investment from internet advertisers anticipated [2][22]. - Publishing: Some publishing companies are facing challenges due to educational reforms, but firms with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields are recommended [2][22]. - Film and Television: Attention is drawn to companies with robust project pipelines, such as Huace Film & TV and Mango TV, as well as cinema chains like Wanda Film and Hengdian Film [2][22]. - IP Derivatives: Companies involved in IP derivatives are highlighted for potential investment, including Huayi Brothers and Shanghai Film Group [2][22]. Group 3: AI Developments - The report notes the rapid advancement of AI applications, particularly with the emergence of Clawdbot, which has gained significant attention in the industry [2][23]. - Recommendations include major cloud players like Google and Amazon, as well as domestic giants like Alibaba and Tencent, focusing on their self-developed models and ecosystems [2][23]. - Specific applications in AI across various sectors are suggested for investment, including AI in gaming, marketing, and healthcare [2][23].

Core Insights - The Palu-themed gaming genre is experiencing a resurgence in early 2026, with multiple new titles being announced and tested, indicating a growing interest in this segment within the industry [1][3][5]. Group 1: Game Releases and Testing - Bilibili's self-developed vertical healing pet management mobile game "Shining! Lumi" was officially revealed on December 19, 2025, and is set to differentiate itself with hand-drawn art style and lightweight gameplay [1]. - Lilith's new vertical screen Palu-themed SLG "Palmon Battle Diary" has opened pre-registration for its domestic version, which is scheduled for public release on February 5, 2026 [3]. - FunPlus-backed Hangzhou Claw Studio announced the second testing phase for its open-world pet RPG "Aniimo" on January 23, 2026, following a successful initial reveal at the Xbox conference in March 2025 [5]. Group 2: Market Performance and Data - "Catch & Build: Land of Pals," 4399's first Palu SLG, has gained attention for its rapid growth in overseas markets, achieving approximately 51,000 in daily revenue without significant marketing support [6][10]. - The game has been in testing since September 2024, initially as a mini-game, and saw a peak daily revenue of over 2 million in March 2025 before declining [7][10]. - As of January 17, 2026, "Catch & Build" has accumulated around 224,000 downloads in nine days, with total revenue reaching approximately 510,000, primarily from markets like Indonesia, the Philippines, and the United States [12][16]. Group 3: Gameplay and Features - The game features a unique world view where players explore and collect pets while managing a home base, utilizing a simplified operation system to attract casual gamers [18][24]. - Players can capture pets through battles or by hatching eggs obtained from various activities, with a complex pet development system that includes upgrades and special training [20][22]. - The game aims to transition from a Palu-like experience to deeper SLG content as players progress, ensuring a smooth gameplay experience [26]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The Palu SLG market is becoming increasingly competitive, with over 20 titles tested in the past year and a half, but only Lilith's "Palmon: Survival" has emerged as a significant success [32][34]. - 4399 is diversifying its Palu strategy beyond SLG, having tested various titles across different genres, indicating a broad approach to capturing market share in the Palu-themed gaming space [35][41].

Core Insights - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the internet sector, particularly e-commerce, social entertainment media, internet healthcare, short videos, and IP-related markets, driven by advancements in AI applications and product innovations [3][17][22]. E-commerce - The report continues to recommend Alibaba in the e-commerce sector, highlighting the recent AI application developments that are expected to catalyze growth. The MAU of the Qianwen app has surpassed 100 million, indicating strong user engagement [3][17]. - JD.com is projected to experience marginal improvements after a weak growth quarter in Q4 2025, maintaining a buy rating [3][17]. Social Entertainment Media - Bilibili and Tencent are noted for their strong advertising momentum, with Tencent's gaming fundamentals improving. The report anticipates the release of new games from both companies, enhancing their product offerings [3][17][22]. - Tencent's game "Delta Action" is expected to become a significant title alongside "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [3][17]. Internet Healthcare - JD Health and Alibaba Health are leveraging their leading platform advantages to deepen collaborations with upstream pharmaceutical manufacturers, resulting in strong revenue and profit growth [3][17]. Short Videos - Kuaishou is recognized for its stable core business and technological leadership in AI, with ongoing efforts to optimize user engagement and monetization through advanced recommendation systems [3][17][22]. IP and Trendy Toys - Pop Mart is expanding its overseas supply chain, with recent shipments from partners in Indonesia, Cambodia, and Mexico, indicating a robust international strategy [3][17]. Long Videos - The report notes a recovery in the number of TV series registrations, with multiple platforms releasing high-quality content, suggesting investment opportunities in companies like iQIYI and Mango TV [3][17]. Music Streaming - Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music have shown stable performance, although concerns about competition have led to a valuation adjustment. The report emphasizes the importance of quality content in driving subscription growth [3][17][22]. Gaming Sector - The gaming industry is expected to maintain its growth trajectory into 2026, with a focus on leading companies like Tencent and NetEase, as well as emerging players with strong product pipelines [3][22]. Advertising - The report indicates stable advertising spending from Q1 flash purchase advertisers, with AI applications like Canva and Afu being utilized in advertising strategies, suggesting continued growth in the advertising sector [3][22]. AI Developments - The report highlights the current phase of intensive AI development in China, recommending attention to companies involved in AI model iterations and applications across various sectors [3][22].

Group 1 - The gaming sector is showing strong performance, with the gaming ETF (159869) rising over 3.5% in early trading on January 14, 2023 [1] - The gaming ETF has reached a scale of 16.217 billion yuan, attracting 1.405 billion yuan in the last 10 trading days, providing investors with a convenient tool to invest in A-share gaming leaders [1] - The new mobile game "Goose Goose Duck," co-published by Huya and Kingsoft, has gained over 10 million new users within six days of its launch, achieving a peak concurrent user count that surpasses historical records on Steam [1] Group 2 - The gaming industry is expected to maintain its favorable outlook through 2026, driven by fundamental improvements, with companies like Tencent and Bilibili showing promising game releases [1] - The gaming sector is experiencing multiple catalysts, including policy support, product cycles, and AI empowerment, making it an attractive area for investment [2] - The gaming ETF tracks the CSI Animation and Gaming Index, which has the highest AI application content in the market, accurately reflecting the overall performance of the A-share animation and gaming industry [2]

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the internet media sector, highlighting strong performance in gaming and social entertainment media, with companies like Bilibili and Tencent outperforming the market [3][4][8] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications and the gaming sector, predicting continued industry growth in 2026 [14][19][22] Group 1: Internet Sector - E-commerce: The report notes that the national subsidy policy for 2026 is expected to be slightly better than anticipated, although recent e-commerce performance remains weak [19][20] - Social Entertainment Media: Bilibili and Tencent's advertising performance continues to exceed market expectations, with Tencent's gaming fundamentals improving [19][20] - Internet Healthcare: JD Health and Alibaba Health are leveraging their platform advantages to deepen cooperation with upstream pharmaceutical manufacturers, leading to strong revenue and profit growth [20] Group 2: Media Sector - Gaming: The report remains optimistic about the gaming sector's performance driven by fundamentals, recommending leading companies such as Tencent and NetEase [22][23] - Advertising: The report discusses recent adjustments by Focus Media regarding its acquisition of New Wave, reflecting concerns about growth impacts from reduced investment [23][24] - Publishing: Some publishing companies are facing negative impacts from educational reforms, leading to delays in revenue recognition [24] Group 3: Key Company Analysis - Tencent Holdings: The company reported a revenue of 192.9 billion RMB for Q3 2025, with a year-over-year increase of 15% [29] - Kuaishou: The company achieved a total revenue of 35.6 billion RMB in Q3 2025, with a year-over-year increase of 14% [30] - Bilibili: The company reported total revenue of 7.685 billion RMB in Q3 2025, with a year-over-year increase of 5% [31]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading IP ecosystem platform in China, leveraging content and community operations to drive growth. It has developed nearly 200 IPs and is enhancing its commercial value through a unique product development model [6][11]. - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 29.96 billion, 32.62 billion, and 35.32 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 9%, and 8% respectively. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 2.26 billion, 3.26 billion, and 4.33 billion yuan, with significant growth in the latter two years [44][43]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a total share capital of 413.76 million shares, with a market price of HKD 190.80, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately HKD 78.95 billion [1]. - The company has undergone significant development since its inception in 2009, evolving from a community platform to a comprehensive video community with a focus on IP development and commercialization [10][11]. Business Highlights - AI marketing is enhancing content production and optimizing advertising efficiency, with the introduction of the "Peanut AI" tool expected to significantly improve content creation and advertising effectiveness [25][27]. - The advertising business is projected to grow substantially, with revenues expected to increase by 27.7% and 20% in 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively [29][31]. - The gaming segment is also showing strong performance, with revenues from established games and new releases contributing to overall growth. The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" has been a key driver of revenue [37][34]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see a steady increase in revenue and profitability, with adjusted net profits turning positive by 2025. The projected P/E ratio for 2025 is 32.2, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [41][44]. - The financial analysis indicates a significant improvement in gross margins, expected to reach 39.6% by 2027, driven by operational efficiencies and revenue growth [43][20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Major tech companies are accelerating the upgrade of multimodal AI models, which is expected to enhance content production efficiency and diversity, while also increasing demand for inference computing power [4][30] - The gaming sector is anticipated to maintain high prosperity due to new game launches and ongoing operations of evergreen games, with recommendations to increase investments in this area [4][29] Industry Data Overview - "Delta Operation" ranked first in the iOS game free list in mainland China, while "Honor of Kings" topped the iOS game revenue list [10][14] - The film "Zootopia 2" achieved the highest box office for the week [10][25] Industry News Summary - Major companies are continuously investing in large models, with the domestic gaming market reaching new highs in both scale and user numbers [28] - Google’s Gemini 3 Flash has broken the "performance-cost-speed" Pareto frontier, while domestic giants are increasing resource allocation for continuous iteration of large models [28][29] - The launch of the new Alibaba model supports role-playing functions and is the most comprehensive video generation model globally [29] - Tencent's mixed world model 1.5 allows for the creation of interactive worlds from text or images, enhancing the gaming experience [29] - The Doubao large model has seen a significant increase in daily token processing volume, indicating robust growth in AI applications [31][32]

Group 1 - The gaming sector is experiencing a significant rise, with the gaming ETF (159869) increasing by nearly 3.5% as of December 17, driven by leading stocks such as Giant Network, which surged over 6% [1] - In November, the number of approved domestic game licenses reached a new high, with 178 domestic games and 6 imported games approved, marking a month-on-month increase of 19 games and a year-on-year increase of 66 games [1] - Among the approved games, 167 are mobile games, 2 are client games, and 9 are multi-platform games, with notable titles including Perfect World's "Dream New Zhu Xian: Light Enjoy" and Bilibili's "Shining Lu Mi" [1] Group 2 - From January to October 2025, China's gaming market generated actual sales revenue of 287.385 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.19%, with the mobile gaming market at 212.331 billion yuan, growing by 8.73% [2] - The gaming sector is expected to benefit from multiple catalysts as the holiday season approaches, including Christmas, New Year, and the Spring Festival, which may significantly boost revenue [2] - The gaming sector is undergoing transformations in AI, content, and commercialization models, making the gaming ETF (159869) an attractive investment opportunity [2]

Group 1 - The gaming sector showed resilience with a slight increase in the gaming ETF (159869) after initially opening lower, indicating a recovery trend in the market [1] - In November, 184 game licenses were approved, with 178 being domestic games and 6 imported, reflecting a continuous optimization of industry supply [1] - The approval of key titles such as Tencent's "No Boundaries" and Bilibili's "Shining Luminous" highlights the ongoing strength and stability of the gaming policy environment [1] Group 2 - Since 2025, a significant number of high-quality games have emerged, suggesting potential long-term value growth for related companies [2] - The gaming and film industries are seen as pioneers for cultural export, achieving notable success in overseas markets [2] - The application of AI technology in the industry is expected to contribute to sustained prosperity in the content sector, with a rich reserve of new games anticipated for 2026 [2]