| 阴 加自选 均线 窗 预测 ◆ | | | 上证指数 000001 | | 自选 均线 窗 ◆ | | | | 同花顺全ACE 深泉 1 883957 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 60000000000 | 4051 | 3888.60 | +13.34 | +0.34% | 6 0 0 9 0 | 1959 | 1868.916 | | +21.284 | +1.1 | | | | 上证指数ETF | +0.42% | | | | 中证2000ETF富国 | | +1.68% | | | | | 三市成交额(沪深泉) | | 1.60万亿 | | | 2 大盘K线区间统计 | | | × | | | | 预估成交额 | | 1.60万亿 | | 1885 | 起始时间: | | | | | | | 较上日此时 | | | | 1869 | | 2025-11-24 | A | 周期个数: | | 3927.51-3912.01 | | 沪股通额度余额 | | 额度充足 | | | 终止 ...

Core Insights - The total net inflow into stock ETFs reached 40.755 billion yuan on November 21, with significant contributions from various ETFs [1] - Despite a market pullback, stock ETFs saw a total net inflow of 70.121 billion yuan this week, indicating strong buying interest [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The CSI 500 ETF had a net inflow exceeding 5.7 billion yuan this week [1] - The ChiNext ETF and CSI 300 ETF each saw net inflows of over 4 billion yuan [1] - The Sci-Tech 50 ETF and Hang Seng Tech Index ETF had net inflows exceeding 3 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Additional ETF Inflows - The CSI 1000 ETF, Hang Seng Tech ETF, Shanghai Composite Index ETF, and Hang Seng Internet ETF each recorded net inflows exceeding 2 billion yuan [1] - Several other ETFs, including the CSI 1000 ETF, China Concept Internet ETF, and various sector-specific ETFs, had net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan [1][2]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Style Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is built from basic style factors such as valuation, market capitalization, volatility, and momentum, gradually constructing a style timing and scoring system[4][9] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Construct 640 micro features based on 80 basic micro indicators[9] 2. Use common indices as style stock pools to replace the absolute proportion division of style factors, constructing new style returns as labels[4][9] 3. Use a random forest model for style timing and obtain the current score for each style[4][9] 4. Integrate the timing results and scoring results to construct a monthly frequency style rotation model[4][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively avoids overfitting risks through rolling training of the random forest model and constructs a comprehensive framework from style timing to style scoring and from style scoring to actual investment[9] Model Backtesting Results 1. **Style Rotation Model**: - Annualized Return: 16.18%[10][11] - Volatility: 20.28%[10][11] - Information Ratio (IR): 0.80[10][11] - Win Rate: 59.43%[10][11] - Maximum Drawdown: 25.20%[11] 2. **Market Benchmark (Hedged)**: - Annualized Return: 10.36%[10][11] - Volatility: 10.85%[10][11] - Information Ratio (IR): 0.95[10][11] - Win Rate: 54.72%[10][11] - Maximum Drawdown: 8.53%[11]

Core Insights - Despite the active performance of sectors like technology, new consumption, and pharmaceuticals, investors have found it challenging to achieve ideal returns, with the CSI 300 index showing a mere 0.03% increase year-to-date as of June, contrasting sharply with the nearly 8% rise in the Wind Active Equity Mixed Fund Index, highlighting the scarcity of professional research capabilities in volatile markets [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - In Q2, public funds achieved a total profit of 386.3 billion yuan, with Fuqun Fund ranking fifth in the industry with a profit of 19.492 billion yuan. For the first half of the year, Fuqun Fund generated 29.832 billion yuan for investors, placing it fourth overall [2] - Fuqun Fund's active equity research strength is a core competitive advantage, with 11 of its equity funds ranking in the top 10 of their categories over the past year. Notably, Fuqun Medical Innovation Stock A and Fuqun Active Growth One-Year Regular Open Mixed Fund both exceeded 40% in returns [2][3] Group 2: Long-term Performance - Over the past five and seven years, Fuqun Fund has had 5 and 10 products, respectively, ranking in the top 10 of their categories. Fuqun New Vitality Flexible Allocation Mixed A achieved returns of 67.84% and 175.32% over the past five and seven years, respectively, ranking first in its category [4] - Fuqun Global Consumer Selection A, managed by a Hong Kong fund manager, has shown impressive long-term performance with returns of 86.16% and 70.68% over the past two and three years [3] Group 3: Fixed Income and Quantitative Strategies - In the fixed income sector, Fuqun Fund's products have maintained a "steady" approach despite market challenges. Fuqun Strong Return Regular Open Bond A achieved returns of 13.03%, 23.28%, and 45.09% over three, five, and seven years, respectively, ranking in the top 9% of its category [5] - Fuqun Fund's quantitative strategies have also performed well, with 10 of its quantitative funds ranking in the top 10 of their categories over the past year. The classic broad-based ETF, the Shanghai Composite Index ETF, has consistently ranked in the top 5 over three, five, and seven years [6]

Core Viewpoint - The market has rebounded to the level of 3400, returning to the position seen in March, following a 10% adjustment over two months, indicating a potential recovery in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The banking, brokerage, and insurance sectors have surged, contributing to a significant increase in the index, which has now surpassed 3400 [3][9]. - The banking index has reached a historical high, with a total market capitalization exceeding 10 trillion, representing over 10% of the total market capitalization of the CSI All Share Index, which stands at 99 trillion [9]. Group 2: Fund Management Regulations - New regulations for public funds are expected to tie performance assessments to benchmarks and investor profitability, prompting a shift in investment strategies [3][4]. - Most public funds benchmark against the CSI 300 index, leading to a potential increase in buying activity in the index's constituent sectors, particularly in banking and finance [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The anticipation of new regulations has led to a tactical shift in fund managers' strategies, with early buying seen as advantageous for cost efficiency [4][6]. - High-profile institutions, including Goldman Sachs, have noted that the financial sector is experiencing a rise due to the new public fund management guidelines, with significant reallocations observed since the announcement on May 7 [7][10]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current market behavior is characterized as a short-term tactical repositioning rather than a fundamental improvement in the market [11][12]. - The expectation is that public funds will increasingly invest in CSI 300 constituents, but fund managers are likely to maintain their research-driven investment approaches to outperform the index over time [12][13].