转债量价齐升，估值压力再起 可转债市场周观察 研究结论 固定收益 | 动态跟踪 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 12 日 ⚫ 上周转债市场在正股带动下同样放量上行，尽管转债估值已然偏高，但高价高估转 债依然强势，百元溢价率突破前期 30%-34%的震荡区间，或将缓慢回调。在性价比 转债稀缺的环境下，增量资金只能流向存续期确定性强的转债。 ⚫ 从当前绝对价格和估值水平看，转债未来上行空间有限，但增量需求预计还能为转 债提供一定支撑，在个券估值已经全面高估的情况下，我们建议关注次新券及放弃 赎回的转债，交易性机会大于趋势性机会。 ⚫ 上周沪指实现 16 连阳并站上 4100 点，在外资流入、国内中长期资金加大权益资产 配置占比的情况下，成交额突破三万亿，商业航天、ai 算力、应用、小金属等板块 继续强势。前期市场猜测的回踩没有出现，元旦后市场延续强势向上突破，观察 A 股历史上几次成交突破三万亿的情况，天量并不意味着见顶，但追高题材或应谨 慎。我们认为市场上行不会一蹴 ...

Group 1: AI Industry Investment Insights - The article analyzes historical technology bull markets to provide insights into the current AI industry investment phase, emphasizing the importance of historical patterns for future investment decisions [3][4] - It identifies two key phases in technology bull markets: valuation expansion and profit-driven periods, highlighting the characteristics of stock price performance during these phases [3][5] Group 2: Valuation Expansion Phase - During the valuation expansion phase, new technologies emerge without profit support, leading to increased valuations driven by industry and policy catalysts [4] - Historical data shows that high industry crowding indicators are common, but the likelihood of price corrections increases within 20 trading days after reaching extreme values, while longer-term trends tend to see new highs [4] - Risk premium is a better measure for valuation boundaries; when the industry risk premium falls below one standard deviation of the rolling two-year average, the market tends to enter a consolidation phase [4] Group 3: Profit-Driven Phase - In the profit-driven phase, exceeding earnings expectations becomes the core driver of market performance, with historical examples including iPhone sales and mobile game penetration rates [5] - Valuation constraints under terminal thinking are crucial, as leading companies' peak stock prices often correspond to future three-year valuation levels around 30-40 times PE [5] - The risk of intensified competition and overcapacity during profit upturns can negatively impact profitability, signaling the end of investment trends [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For overseas computing power, the profit-driven phase is expected to continue, with reasonable long-term valuations around 20-30 times PE, indicating no bubble [6] - Domestic computing power is in the valuation expansion phase, with low risk premiums suggesting that the next market movement may depend on performance realization or systemic declines in risk-free rates [6] - AI applications are also in the valuation expansion phase, with high valuation potential but challenges in predicting the timing and areas of successful applications [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to strengthen, reaching a 10-year high, while the China Convertible Bond Index has also risen, hitting its highest point since June 2015 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The China Convertible Bond Index has shown a strong performance since 2025, highlighting its unique value in the equity market's volatility, characterized by "offensive and defensive" capabilities [2]. - On January 6, the China Convertible Bond Index surged by 1.35% to 505.77 points, marking a high not seen since June 2015 [4]. - The recent strong performance of convertible bonds is driven by the underlying stocks, with notable examples including the Seer Medical bond, which saw a 20% increase due to the stock's performance [5]. Group 2: Key Catalysts - The core catalyst for the current market rally is the commercialization breakthrough in the brain-computer interface industry, with significant announcements from companies like Neuralink [4]. - Domestic policy support for the brain-computer interface sector is also increasing, with initiatives aimed at expediting the approval processes for related medical devices [4]. Group 3: Structural Trends - The recent rally in convertible bonds is characterized by two main features: strong performance of underlying stocks and concentrated thematic interest in sectors like brain-computer interfaces and AI healthcare [5]. - Despite some convertible bonds experiencing declines due to falling stock prices, the overall market sentiment remains positive, driven by high-growth sectors [6]. Group 4: Historical Context - The last time the China Convertible Bond Index reached a historical high was in June 2015, during a peak in the A-share bull market [8]. - Since 2019, the convertible bond market has gradually recovered, with a notable resurgence in 2025, reflecting a strong correlation with the performance of underlying stocks [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the upcoming "spring rally" in the A-share and convertible bond markets may be influenced by seasonal capital inflows and policy expectations [12]. - The performance of convertible bonds in the near term will depend on institutional investment behavior and the release of annual performance forecasts for A-shares [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the A-share market rose after an initial decline, with a significant rally in the second half of the month; the bond market showed a divergence between short and long - term segments; the US stock market fluctuated, oil prices declined, and precious metals increased. Some funds heavily invested in commercial aerospace, optical modules, and machinery industries performed well [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 December Capital Market Review Stock Market - In December 2025, the A - share market declined in the first half and then had an 11 - day consecutive increase in the second half, with the overall market rising. The trading atmosphere improved. The aerospace, non - ferrous metals, and communication sectors performed well. By December 31, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.06%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.17%. Growth stocks outperformed value stocks. Among industries, 18 out of 31 Shenwan primary industries rose, with national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and communication leading the gains [8][9]. Bond Market - In December 2025, there was a net injection of 1.17 trillion yuan in the central bank's open - market operations, but the year - end capital demand pushed up the capital interest rate. The bond market showed a divergence between short and long - term segments, and the yield curve steepened. The yields of some bonds changed, and the prices of major bond indices declined, while the convertible bond index rose [10]. Overseas Market - In December 2025, the US stock market fluctuated due to mixed economic data and concerns about AI valuation bubbles. European markets generally rose, and most Asia - Pacific markets also had positive performance, except for the Hang Seng Index. Oil prices declined due to expected oversupply and economic concerns, while precious metals rose, with silver having a significant increase [11]. 2025 December Fund Performance Review Equity and Hybrid Funds - In December 2025, equity funds rose 2.75%, with index equity funds rising 2.79% and actively managed open - end equity funds rising 2.54%. Actively managed open - end hybrid funds rose 2.77%. Funds heavily invested in commercial aerospace, optical modules, and machinery, as well as satellite aviation and high - end equipment theme index funds, performed well [13]. Bond Funds - In December 2025, bond funds rose 0.23%, with index bond funds rising 0.08% and actively managed open - end bond funds rising 0.24%. Convertible bond funds and partial - debt bond funds performed well. Among them, convertible bond funds rose 3.15%, and partial - debt bond funds rose 0.59%. Medium - and short - duration bonds in pure - debt bond funds showed better performance [14]. Money Market Funds - In December 2025, the average annualized yield of money market funds was 1.22%, an increase from the previous month [15]. QDII Funds - In December 2025, QDII equity - hybrid funds declined 0.94%. Some funds focusing on semiconductors, high - end manufacturing, and precious metals performed well. QDII bond funds declined 0.32% [16].

Group 1: Zhongsheng Pharma - The core business of Zhongsheng Pharma has stabilized after experiencing centralized procurement, with innovative drug research and development gradually yielding results, particularly in respiratory and metabolic fields [2][4] - The company reported a revenue of 1.889 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.01%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 68.40% to 251 million yuan [4] - The core products of traditional Chinese medicine have maintained stable growth post-collective procurement, with sales resilience supported by volume compensating for price reductions [4][5] - The innovative pipeline includes RAY1225 injection, a dual-target drug for weight loss and blood sugar reduction, which has shown positive results in clinical trials [5] Group 2: Medical Device Industry - The brain-computer interface (BCI) industry in China has achieved rapid development under policy support, with a focus on establishing a robust technological and industrial framework by 2027 [6][8] - The National Medical Products Administration held a meeting to discuss the advancement of BCI medical devices, emphasizing safety and effectiveness as primary considerations [17] - By 2030, the BCI industry aims to cultivate globally influential leading enterprises and a competitive industrial ecosystem, with significant advancements expected in technology and application [18]

- The report tracks various quantitative factors across equity, commodity, options, and convertible bond markets, providing insights into market trends and factor performance during the week of December 15-19, 2025[3][9][24] - **Equity Market Factors**: - **Market Style**: The market showed a slight preference for large-cap and value styles, reversing the trend from the previous week[10][12] - **Market Structure**: Industry excess return dispersion and rotation speed increased, while the proportion of rising constituent stocks decreased. Concentration in the top 100 stocks remained stable, and the top 5 industries saw a slight decline in transaction concentration[10][12] - **Market Activity**: Both market volatility and turnover rate continued to decline[11][12] - **Commodity Market Factors**: - **Trend Strength**: All sectors except the black sector showed an increase in trend strength[24][29] - **Volatility**: Volatility decreased in the precious metals and agricultural sectors but increased in other sectors[24][29] - **Liquidity**: Liquidity declined in the energy and agricultural sectors but slightly improved in other sectors[24][29] - **Basis Momentum**: Basis momentum increased in the energy and black sectors but decreased in other sectors[24][29] - **Options Market Factors**: - Implied volatility for both the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 rebounded from low levels. The skew of call and put options for the SSE 50 decreased, while the skew of put options for the CSI 1000 continued to rise, indicating risk release in large-cap stocks and risk accumulation in small-cap stocks[32][36] - **Convertible Bond Market Factors**: - The market stabilized and recovered, with transaction volume exceeding the median level of the past year. The premium rate for bonds priced at 100 yuan reached a new annual high, while the proportion of low premium rate bonds continued to decline[34][38][40]

Market Overview - A-shares remain stable with controllable risks, suggesting opportunities for low-cost investments in high-prosperity sectors. The macro strategy team indicates that market enthusiasm for chasing high prices is still weak, but the index remains relatively stable, expected to maintain a fluctuating structure with controllable risks. Signs of market stabilization have become more apparent since December, particularly in high-prosperity sectors that have shown resilience. It is recommended to preferentially invest in industries with upward trends in prosperity and patiently await the upcoming spring market [1][4][6]. Stock Market Factors - Last week, market style shifted slightly towards large-cap stocks, with a value-oriented approach gaining traction compared to the previous week. The volatility of both large-cap and value-growth styles remained low. The dispersion of excess returns among industries and the speed of industry rotation have reversed, showing an increase, while the proportion of rising constituent stocks has decreased. The trading concentration of the top 100 stocks remained stable, with a slight decline in the trading concentration of the top five industries [6][8]. Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, all sectors except for the black metal sector showed an upward trend in strength. The efficiency coefficients for precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products remained high. The basis momentum for precious metals saw a significant decline, while the basis momentum for energy and black metal sectors increased. Volatility increased in all sectors except for precious metals and agricultural products, and liquidity decreased in the energy and agricultural sectors, while other sectors saw a slight increase [20][21]. Options Market Factors - The implied volatility of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 1000 rebounded from low levels last week. In terms of volatility skew, both call and put options for the Shanghai index decreased, while the put option skew for the CSI 1000 continued to rise, indicating that the market has experienced some risk release, with small-cap styles still accumulating risks [29]. Convertible Bond Market Factors - The convertible bond market stabilized and showed signs of recovery last week. The valuation of bonds reached a new high for the year in terms of the premium rate for conversion at 100 yuan, maintaining a trend of oscillation and increase. The pure bond premium rate for debt-type groupings saw a slight increase, while the proportion of low premium conversion bonds continued to decline, remaining at a low level. Market transaction volume rebounded, surpassing the historical median for the past year [31].

- The report covers the period from December 8, 2025, to December 12, 2025[2][10] - The A-share market showed limited incremental funds and a characteristic of stock game due to seasonal tightening of funds towards the end of the year[3][10] - In the stock market, the style was biased towards small-cap and growth, with decreased volatility in the small-cap style and increased volatility in the growth style[11][13] - The market structure showed a decrease in industry excess return dispersion, industry rotation speed, and the proportion of rising constituent stocks[11][13] - The trading concentration increased for the top 100 stocks but decreased for the top 5 industries[11][13] - Market activity showed a decline in both market volatility and turnover rate[12][13] - In the commodity market, trend strength increased, especially in precious metals and non-ferrous metals, while the basis momentum rose in the energy and chemical sectors but fell in others[26][33] - Volatility increased in all sectors except energy and chemicals, with precious metals maintaining high volatility, and liquidity rose slightly in all sectors except black metals[26][33] - In the options market, the implied volatility of the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 further declined to historical lows, with the put skew decreasing for the SSE 50 and increasing for the CSI 1000[37] - In the convertible bond market, the market showed low volatility, with the premium rate of bonds convertible at par remaining high, the pure bond premium rate decreasing, and the proportion of low premium convertible bonds declining[41]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing limited incremental growth, characterized by stockholder competition as year-end approaches, leading to a seasonal tightening of market liquidity and a tendency for investors to lock in profits, resulting in a potential lack of new funds [3][5] - The overall market is entering a phase of adjustment and consolidation, although it remains in a bull market, suggesting that any temporary corrections may present good investment opportunities [5][6] Equity Market Factors - Last week, market style shifted towards small-cap stocks, while the growth style was favored over value [7][9] - The volatility of small-cap stocks decreased, while the volatility of growth stocks increased [9] - The dispersion of excess returns among industries decreased, and the speed of industry rotation slowed down, with a lower proportion of rising constituent stocks [7][9] - The trading concentration increased, with the top 100 stocks accounting for a higher proportion of trading volume, while the top 5 industries saw a decrease in their trading volume share [7][9] - Market activity decreased, as indicated by lower market volatility and turnover rates [8][9] Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, the trend strength of various sectors increased, particularly in precious metals and non-ferrous sectors [25][26] - The basis momentum in the energy and chemical sector increased, while it decreased in other sectors [26] - Volatility levels rose in all sectors except for energy and chemicals, with precious metals maintaining high volatility [25][26] - Liquidity in the black sector decreased, while other sectors saw a slight increase [25][26] Options Market Factors - The implied volatility of the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 indices further declined, reaching historical low levels, closely approaching historical volatility [28] - The skewness of put options for the SSE 50 decreased, while it increased for the CSI 1000, indicating that market adjustments may begin with a divergence in market capitalization styles [28] Convertible Bond Market Factors - The convertible bond market exhibited low volatility and oscillation last week [33] - The premium rate for bonds convertible at 100 remained high with little change, while the premium rate for debt-type bonds decreased [33] - The proportion of low premium convertible bonds declined again, remaining at a low level, with trading volume maintaining near the historical median for the past year [33]

如何看待反弹的持续性 20251207 摘要 美国国家安全战略报告转向战略收缩，放弃全球霸权，聚焦本土和西半 球安全，应对移民、毒品及地区敌对势力，此转变或减少美国在全球范 围内的军事干预。 对华政策重心从全面遏制转向经济竞争，强调通过贸易和关键资源（如 稀土）竞争，避免全面军事对抗，但在台湾问题上保持强硬，以维持亚 太威慑力。 美国调整与盟友关系，推动盟友承担更多防务责任，如北约成员国军费 支出需达到 GDP 的 5%，并敦促日韩等国承担更多军事负担，或将影响 全球军事力量的部署。 中美关系预计在高度竞争中维持相对稳定，短期内经贸合作需求强烈， 尤其在稀土和农产品领域，领导人会晤有望签署框架协议，但 2026 年 美国大选或导致涉台及涉华企业制裁波动。 市场对利好事件反应积极，中央经济工作会议预计将支持 2026 年经济 发展，可能提升市场风险偏好，系统性支持措施和年报预告或推动市场 震荡上行。 新版国家安全战略报告中提到哪些具体变化？ 新版国家安全战略报告中有三个主要变化值得关注。首先，美国整体转向战略 收缩，不再追求全球霸权，而是聚焦本土和西半球安全。其次，对华政策从全 面遏制转向经济竞争，强调通过贸易 ...