2026年中国人民银行工作会议近日召开，会议释放了一系列政策信号。中国央行表示，2026年继续实施 适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升金融服务实体经济高质量发展质效。 本次会议重申"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"，加之中国央行致力于构建科学稳健的货币政策体系，分 析人士认为，这都意味着2026年货币政策不会大放大收。 在东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青看来，2026年中国央行或主要通过下调政策利率、结构性货币政策工具 利率和个人住房公积金贷款利率，来引导企业和居民贷款利率下行。 (责任编辑：朱赫) 这意味着2026年居民房贷利率、消费贷利率和经营贷利率都有下调空间，政府和企业债券融资成本也会 跟进下调。王青预计，2026年中国央行或将降息两次，降息幅度在20至30个基点。 在数量型货币政策方面，2026年中国央行或将主要依靠中期借贷便利(MLF)和买断式逆回购向市场注入 中期流动性，同时结合国债买卖和降准向市场注入长期流动性。"当前数量型宽松政策工具丰富，我们 判断2026年央行可能降准1至2次，幅度为0.5至1个百分点。"王青说。 围绕货币政策，会议作出一系列部署：把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回 ...

高盛近期的报告认为，2026年中国央行可能进行两次10个基点的降息。 中新社北京1月7日电 (陶思阅)2026年中国人民银行工作会议近日召开，会议释放了一系列政策信号。中 国央行表示，2026年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升金融服务实体 经济高质量发展质效。 围绕货币政策，会议作出一系列部署：把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考 量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，引导 金融总量合理增长、信贷投放均衡，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目 标相匹配。 在东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青看来，2026年中国央行或主要通过下调政策利率、结构性货币政策工具 利率和个人住房公积金贷款利率，来引导企业和居民贷款利率下行。 这意味着2026年居民房贷利率、消费贷利率和经营贷利率都有下调空间，政府和企业债券融资成本也会 跟进下调。王青预计，2026年中国央行或将降息两次，降息幅度在20至30个基点。 汇丰银行环球投资研究大中华区首席经济学家刘晶表示，新型政策性金融工具或将继续发挥"准财政"工 具的作用，2026 ...

中国人民银行12月24日发布公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，12月25日中国人民银行将以固定数 量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展4000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)操作，期限为1年期。 由于当月有3000亿元MLF到期，这意味着MLF净投放量达1000亿元，为连续第10个月加量续作。 从今年全年来看，2025年央行MLF净投放突破1.1万亿元。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，中国人 民银行通过MLF等政策工具持续注入中期流动性，显示货币政策延续支持性立场，有力支持全年政府 债券大规模发行，助力满足企业和居民的信贷融资需求，有助于稳增长、稳预期。(记者任军、吴雨) ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes that China's banking system liquidity remains abundant, which is crucial for stabilizing the macroeconomic landscape and ensuring the healthy operation of financial markets [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has established a comprehensive set of liquidity management tools to effectively respond to short-term fluctuations caused by fiscal policies and government bond issuances, maintaining overall stability in the money market [1][2] - Recent innovations in liquidity management tools, such as including government bond trading in the monetary policy toolkit and creating two new monetary policy tools to support the capital market, are expected to enhance the effectiveness of liquidity management in China [1] Group 2 - Internationally, central banks utilize various tools for liquidity management, which can be categorized into four levels: intraday liquidity support, daily liquidity supply, temporary liquidity supply, and structural liquidity supply [2] - China's liquidity tool system aligns with the mainstream frameworks in Europe and the U.S., reflecting both international practices and domestic market realities [3] - The management logic of China's liquidity tools is consistent with international practices, focusing on banking institutions as counterparties and using high liquidity, low-risk assets like government bonds for collateral [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintains a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring ample liquidity in the market as it continues to inject funds through various tools, with expectations for continued support in December [2][5][6]. Group 1: Liquidity Injection Details - In November, the PBOC conducted a net injection of 500 billion yuan through reverse repos and 1 trillion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), totaling a liquidity injection of 6 trillion yuan [2][5]. - The average monthly rate for the 7-day reverse repo was 1.47%, remaining stable compared to the previous month, while the 1-year AAA-rated interbank certificate of deposit yield decreased by 3 basis points to 1.63% [5]. - The PBOC's operations included a net injection of 500 billion yuan through government bond transactions, which is an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous month, indicating a stable bond market [5][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's liquidity measures are aimed at supporting government bond issuance and encouraging banks to increase credit lending [5][6]. - The bond market remains under pressure despite the liquidity easing, with expectations that the PBOC will continue to stabilize market sentiment through its operations [5][6]. - There is an anticipation of over 2.5 trillion yuan in public market operations maturing in December, leading to expectations of continued liquidity support through MLF and reverse repos [6][7]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - Economists predict that the PBOC may implement further monetary policy adjustments, including potential reductions in the reserve requirement ratio and policy rates, possibly in the first quarter of 2026 [7]. - The overall stance of maintaining ample liquidity is expected to persist, with adjustments made as necessary to address year-end liquidity pressures [7].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted net bond purchases in the open market for two consecutive months, with a net injection of 50 billion yuan in November, indicating a strategic move to manage liquidity in the financial system [1] Group 1: Market Operations - In November, the PBOC executed a net bond purchase of 50 billion yuan, alongside a net injection of 500 billion yuan through reverse repos and 100 billion yuan via Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [1] - The PBOC had previously suspended bond trading operations in January due to a persistent supply-demand imbalance in the government bond market, but resumed these operations in October with a net injection of 20 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - Analysts suggest that the resumption of bond trading may serve as a "substitute for reserve requirement ratio cuts" [1] - The PBOC is expected to avoid large-scale purchases in a short period to prevent significant disturbances in bond yields, with future bond buying likely dependent on changes in yield rates [1] - The overall policy stance of maintaining ample liquidity has not changed, although the urgency for increased liquidity injections in November is considered low [1]

| 工具类型 | 工具名称 | 投放 | 回笼 | 净投放 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 准备金 | 调整法定存款准备金率 | - | - | - | | 中央银行贷款 | 常备借贷便利(SLF) | 8 | 11 | -3 | | | 中期借贷便利(MLF) | 10000 | 9000 | 1000 | | | 抵押补充贷款(PSL) | 254 | 0 | 254 | | | 其他结构性货币政策工具 | 6108 | 4958 | 1150 | | 公开市场业务 | 7天期逆回购 | 48056 | 53618 | -5562 | | | 其他期限逆回购 | 15000 | 10000 | 5000 | | | 公开市场国债买卖 | 500 | 0 | 500 | | | 中央国库现金管理 | 2000 | 1200 | 800 | 12月2日，央行发布的2025年11月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况显示：11月，中央银行贷款方面，常备借贷便利净投放-3亿元，中期借贷便利净投放 1000亿元，抵押补充贷款净投放254亿元，其他结构性货币政策工具净投放1150亿元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced a 1 trillion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF issuance [1] Group 1: MLF Operation Details - On November 25, the central bank will conduct a fixed-quantity, interest-rate tendering operation for 1 trillion yuan MLF with a one-year term [1] - With 900 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, the net injection of MLF will amount to 100 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Market Implications - Experts believe this move will help maintain sufficient liquidity, support government bond issuance, and stabilize market expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for the sixth consecutive month, indicating a stable monetary policy environment aimed at supporting economic recovery and maintaining liquidity in the financial system [1] Group 1: Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and Interest Rates - As of November 20, 2025, the 1-year LPR is set at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50%, both remaining unchanged from the previous month [1] - The only adjustment to the LPR this year occurred in May, where both the 1-year and 5-year LPR were reduced by 10 basis points [1] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in October was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, while the average rate for personal housing loans was also 3.1%, down about 8 basis points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The PBOC's third-quarter monetary policy report emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain relatively relaxed social financing conditions [1] - Analysts expect that the regulatory authorities may further lower the 5-year LPR to alleviate high actual mortgage rates and stimulate housing market demand in the fourth quarter [2] - Future monetary policy actions may include using reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) to enhance liquidity management and support key strategic areas [4] - Some economists believe the probability of interest rate cuts and LPR adjustments in the fourth quarter is low, citing manageable GDP growth targets and stable inflation [4]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a buyout reverse repo operation of 800 billion yuan with a six-month term, indicating a net injection of 500 billion yuan for the month of November [1] - The PBOC has been consistently using buyout reverse repo operations since October last year to address long-term funding gaps, with a total of 1.5 trillion yuan in operations planned for November [1][2] - Analysts expect the PBOC to continue using various monetary policy tools, including buyout reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF), to maintain liquidity in the banking system [2] Group 2 - In October, the PBOC maintained liquidity by implementing multiple monetary policy tools, including a restart of government bond trading, despite 900 billion yuan in MLF maturing in November [2] - The PBOC's recent monetary policy report indicates a commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy to keep social financing conditions relatively relaxed [2] - Market analysts believe that the significance of the PBOC's resumption of government bond trading lies more in its signaling rather than an immediate need for liquidity injection [2]