主要回购利率多数下行 中国外汇交易中心(以下简称"交易中心")最新发布的数据显示，2025年7月，资金面整体均衡偏松，货 币市场交易量增加、余额减少，主要回购利率多数下行；"反内卷"政策提振风险偏好，债券发行及交易 环比减少，国债收益率整体上行，曲线走陡；利率互换曲线短下长上、结束倒挂，成交环比有所增长。 从成交量来看，7月份，银行间市场交易活跃，当月成交231.7万亿元，环比增长12.7%，同比增长 15.7%。 央行在2025年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告中明确指出，下一阶段，货币政策主要思路包括"落实落 细适度宽松的货币政策""保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平 预期目标相匹配，持续营造适宜的金融环境"等。中泰证券（600918）银行业首席分析师戴志峰认为， 后续货币政策或更重视政策执行与落地。 二级市场方面，7月份，债市收益率震荡上行，10年期国债运行在1.64%至1.75%区间，曲线走陡，信用 利差多数收窄。截至7月末，国债1年、3年、5年、7年、10年和30年期到期收益率分别为1.38%、 1.44%、1.57%、1.68%、1.7%和1.95%，分别较上月末上升 ...

为保持银行体系流动性充裕，中国人民银行8月22日发布公告称，将在25日以固定数量、利率招标、多 重价位中标方式开展6000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)操作，期限为1年期。鉴于8月有3000亿元MLF到期， 本月央行MLF净投放将达到3000亿元，为连续第六个月加量续作。 公开市场国债买卖操作、公开市场买断式逆回购操作以及MLF操作，是央行根据一级交易商需求在连 续开展7天期逆回购操作的基础上，额外投放的中长期资金。在本次MLF操作前，8月央行已通过买断 式逆回购累计净投放3000亿元。综合来看，两项工具在8月合计释放中期流动性6000亿元，为今年2月以 来的最大净投放规模，继续展现出央行适度宽松的货币政策取向。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青向证券时报记者指出，8月中期流动性净投放规模扩大的原因在于现阶段 处于政府债券持续发行的高峰期。同时，近期中长端市场利率普遍上行，银行体系流动性有所收紧，央 行通过MLF等工具加大资金投放，也有助于稳定市场预期，保持市场流动性充裕。 自今年3月MLF回归流动性投放工具定位以来，央行持续保持加量续作。央行在一季度货币政策执行报 告中曾指出，MLF招投标机制完善后，由操作当天发布结 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - The central bank uses short - and medium - term liquidity management tools to keep mid - year liquidity reasonably abundant. Short - term fluctuations in stock indices are dominated by overseas factors. The results of short - term Sino - US trade negotiations are relatively positive, leading to a relatively strong market oscillation. However, caution is needed regarding the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs when operating [4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Monetary Market - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.37 with a 0.48bp increase, DR007 at 1.53 with a 2.13bp increase, GC001 at 1.53 with a 2.00bp increase, GC007 at 1.58 with a 2.50bp increase. SHBOR 3M was 1.64 with a - 0.30bp change, LPR 5 - year was 3.50 with a - 10.00bp change. 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds were at 1.41 (-0.50bp), 1.50 (-0.60bp), and 1.64 (-1.45bp) respectively, and 10 - year US treasury bonds were at 4.47 (-2.00bp) [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 1640 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 2149 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 509 billion yuan. This week, 9309 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 1265 billion and 1350 billion yuan maturing on Thursday and Friday respectively [3][4] 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market - **Stock Index Performance**: The CSI 300 rose 0.75% to 3894.6, the SSE 50 rose 0.59% to 2692.1, the CSI 500 rose 0.61% to 5792.9, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.4% to 6186.5. The trading volume of the two markets was 12555 billion yuan, a decrease of 1599 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher [5] - **Futures Contracts**: For futures contracts, IF, IH, IC, and IM of the current - month contracts had certain price changes and volume/position changes. For example, IF current - month contract rose 1.0%, its trading volume increased 13.3%, and its open interest increased 5.1% [5] - **Premium and Discount Situation**: The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different delivery months are provided. For example, the IF current - month contract had a premium rate of 16.48% [7]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 10 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months (91 days) to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system and stabilize market expectations [1] - The operation is aimed at preventing fluctuations in the funding environment, as the banking system has shown a slight marginal contraction in liquidity recently [1] - The PBOC's decision to disclose the scale of the reverse repurchase operation earlier in the month enhances the transparency of monetary policy and helps guide market expectations [1] Group 2 - There is speculation that the PBOC may conduct additional reverse repurchase operations within June, as there is no restriction on the frequency of these operations [2] - The reverse repurchase operations are expected to work alongside Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) to maintain liquidity in the banking system [2] - The use of various liquidity management tools, including MLF and reverse repos, is crucial for increasing credit availability for enterprises and households, thereby reducing financing costs in the real economy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a significant operation of 1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repos starting from June 6, 2025, to maintain liquidity in the banking system, marking a shift in its usual announcement timing from the end of the month to the beginning [1][4][6] Group 1: Operation Details - The buyout reverse repo operation will be conducted with a fixed amount and interest rate bidding, with a term of 3 months (91 days) [1] - This tool, introduced in October 2024, aims to enhance liquidity management and cross-period adjustment capabilities within one year [1][5] - The PBOC has conducted multiple buyout reverse repo operations up to early June 2025, indicating a proactive approach to liquidity management [1] Group 2: Reasons for the Operation - The operation is primarily aimed at countering liquidity pressure, as 1.2 trillion yuan of reverse repos will mature in June [3][4] - It also serves to strengthen expectation management and policy transparency, with the PBOC breaking the convention of announcing operations at the end of the month [4][6] - The move is seen as a response to the high volume of interbank certificates of deposit maturing in June, which is expected to reach 4.2 trillion yuan, the highest monthly record [4][9] Group 3: Market Impact and Future Outlook - The announcement is expected to stabilize market expectations and maintain a reasonable liquidity level in the banking system [4][6] - Analysts suggest that the buyout reverse repo will complement the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) as a channel for medium to long-term liquidity [5][9] - The PBOC's actions are viewed as part of a broader strategy to support credit growth to the real economy and manage liquidity effectively [5][9]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, marking the first time such an operation was pre-announced and conducted at the beginning of the month [1] - The operation is aimed at addressing the upcoming maturity of 5 trillion yuan in 3-month and 7 trillion yuan in 6-month reverse repos, ensuring sufficient liquidity in the banking system [1] - Analysts suggest that this move signals the PBOC's commitment to maintaining reasonable liquidity levels in the market, especially in light of the high volume of interbank certificates of deposit maturing in June [1][2] Group 2 - June will see a record high of 4.18 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit maturing, which could create liquidity pressures and price fluctuations in the market [2] - The second quarter has seen a rapid issuance of government bonds, which may further disrupt liquidity [2] - The PBOC has been actively managing market liquidity through various tools, including a net injection of 11,196 billion yuan in May, indicating a moderately loose monetary policy stance [2] Group 3 - CITIC Securities believes that reverse repurchase operations will work alongside Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) to maintain reasonable liquidity levels [3] - MLF is expected to continue its net injection trend in June to counterbalance the pressure from government bond payments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has recently implemented measures to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments and support liquidity in the financial market, indicating a proactive approach to managing economic conditions [1] Group 1 - On May 15, the PBOC executed its first reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 2025, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan (about 140 billion USD) into the financial market [1] - On May 23, the PBOC conducted a 500 billion yuan (approximately 70 billion USD) operation of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) to continue providing liquidity [1] - Industry insiders anticipate that overall liquidity will remain stable in June, suggesting a positive outlook for the financial environment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the shift in macroeconomic policy towards boosting consumption as a key point for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth [1][3] - The report highlights the effectiveness of counter-cyclical monetary policy in the first quarter, with a supportive stance leading to reasonable growth in money credit and a stable financial market [2][3] - The report indicates that the Chinese government's debt expansion remains sustainable compared to the debt situations in the US and Japan, given the large state-owned assets and low government debt levels [3][4] Group 2 - The report outlines a comprehensive financial policy package announced on May 7, which includes measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to stabilize market expectations and support domestic demand [2][7] - It stresses the importance of enhancing the bond market's construction and efficiency, addressing the need for improved pricing efficiency and risk management capabilities [5][6] - The report calls for a balanced approach to monetary policy, focusing on maintaining reasonable growth in financing and money supply while ensuring the stability of the RMB exchange rate [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 1.2 trillion yuan in April to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1][3]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - In April, the PBOC executed a buyout reverse repo operation totaling 1.2 trillion yuan, consisting of 700 billion yuan for 3-month (91 days) and 500 billion yuan for 6-month (182 days) [1][2]. - The net withdrawal from the 3-month buyout reverse repo in April was 500 billion yuan, following the maturity of 1.2 trillion yuan in 3-month and 500 billion yuan in 6-month buyout reverse repos [3]. Group 2: Future Expectations - Significant buyout reverse repos are set to mature in May and June, with 900 billion yuan for 3-month in late May and 5 billion yuan for 3-month and 1.4 trillion yuan for 6-month in late June [4]. - Analysts suggest that the reduction in April's buyout reverse repo may indicate a potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut to inject long-term liquidity into the market, thereby supporting bank lending capabilities and economic growth [4]. Group 3: Coordination with Fiscal Policy - The issuance of special government bonds is underway, with a focus on the second and third quarters, which may influence the timing of monetary policy easing [4]. - The PBOC's monetary policy is expected to work in tandem with fiscal measures, with the pace of bond issuance being a critical factor in assessing the window for monetary easing [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that the central bank's net injection of 500 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) reflects a signal to replenish mid-term liquidity for banks, suggesting a continued need for accommodative monetary policy to stabilize the economy [1] Group 1 - The central bank's net injection of 500 billion yuan in MLF is aimed at supplementing mid-term liquidity for banks [1] - The current lending scale of banks in the interbank market remains below the levels seen in the second half of last year, indicating a need for additional mid-term funding [1] - Given the increasing uncertainty in the external environment, it is essential for the central bank to maintain a moderately accommodative monetary policy [1] Group 2 - There is a possibility of further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts by the central bank to provide long-term funding for banks [1] - The expectation is that the environment of moderately accommodative liquidity will continue [1]