【导读】五大私募展望 2026 年债市投资机会 中国基金报记者 刘明 站在 2025 年年末，如何看待 2025 年债市变化？ 2026 年债券市场有哪些投资机会？为回 答上述问题，中国基金报采访了多家知名私募投研掌门人。受访私募机构人士包括银叶投资 首席投资官许巳阳，万柏基金创始合伙人、总经理范强华，安佑基金执行董事兼总经理何玉 涛，恒立基金创始人、总经理潘焕焕，以及宁水资本研究总监陈昭斌。 受访私募主要观点如下： 银叶投资首席投资官许巳阳： 2026 年，预计难以看到利率单边下行趋势，长端利率继续宽 幅震荡，长债有阶段性上行风险。利率债市场更看好中短端利率品种表现， 12 月中央经济工 作会议定调货币政策将继续保持适度宽松，有助于短端资产的平稳表现。 万柏基金创始合伙人、总经理范强华： 2026 年，重点看好以下三类品种：一是中短端高等 级信用债，是组合的 " 压舱石 " 。二是转债市场的结构性机遇，部分具备强基本面支撑的偏 债型转债展现出极佳的 " 债底 + 期权 " 属性。三是中资点心债。 安佑基金执行董事兼总经理何玉涛： 2026 年将延续 " 股牛 + 债不熊 " 格局：债市依然 " 上有顶、下有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in 2026 is expected to experience low volatility and maintain a low interest rate environment, with a focus on short to medium-term bonds and convertible bonds as key investment opportunities [2][12][16]. Group 1: 2026 Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is anticipated to face challenges with long-term interest rates experiencing wide fluctuations and potential upward pressure due to supply and inflation expectations [2][12]. - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, supporting short-term assets and maintaining a stable performance in the bond market [2][12][16]. - The overall sentiment towards the bond market is optimistic, with expectations of a recovery in market conditions and structural opportunities arising from a low interest rate environment [3][15]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities identified for 2026 include high-grade short to medium-term credit bonds, structural opportunities in the convertible bond market, and Chinese dim sum bonds [2][16][20]. - Convertible bonds are highlighted as particularly attractive due to expected supply shortages and their dual nature of providing both bond-like security and equity-like upside [17][20]. - The focus on "fixed income plus" products is emphasized as a cost-effective strategy, leveraging ETFs to enhance returns while managing volatility [20][21]. Group 3: 2025 Market Review - The bond market in 2025 deviated from initial expectations, with higher volatility and a more pronounced differentiation in credit bonds than anticipated [7][8]. - Factors such as central bank policies, trade tensions, and unexpected regulatory changes contributed to the market's performance, leading to a reassessment of risk and return dynamics [4][8][12]. - The overall trajectory of the bond market in 2025 was characterized by a "slow bull" pattern, with fluctuations driven by external economic conditions and policy responses [7][12].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in 2026 is expected to maintain a "bullish stock + non-bearish bond" pattern, with overall low volatility and certain investment value, despite lacking trend opportunities [2][6][7]. Group 1: 2026 Bond Market Outlook - Long-term interest rates are anticipated to experience wide fluctuations, with potential upward risks due to supply pressures and inflation expectations [8][12]. - The central economic work conference in December indicated that monetary policy will remain moderately loose, benefiting short-term assets [12]. - The bond market is expected to show structural opportunities, particularly in medium to short-term high-grade credit bonds, convertible bonds, and Chinese dim sum bonds [11][12][13]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Three key investment opportunities for 2026 include: 1. Medium to short-term high-grade credit bonds, which serve as a stabilizing component in portfolios [12]. 2. Structural opportunities in the convertible bond market, which exhibit strong fundamental support [13]. 3. Chinese dim sum bonds, benefiting from potential capital gains and currency appreciation [12][15]. Group 3: 2025 Market Review - The bond market in 2025 experienced a bearish trend, correcting from previous overpricing due to premature interest rate cut expectations [4][5]. - Factors such as the central bank's restrained liquidity release and unexpected policy changes contributed to the market's volatility [5][6]. - The overall performance of the bond market in 2025 aligned with initial expectations, although the degree of volatility and credit bond differentiation was greater than anticipated [4][5]. Group 4: Strategies for Enhancing Returns - In a low-interest environment, strategies to enhance fixed-income returns include active participation in wave trading and refining trading strategies [16][17]. - Utilizing various derivative tools to amplify capital gains while managing overall portfolio risk is recommended [17][19]. - Emphasis on multi-asset allocation and strategy optimization is crucial, particularly in convertible bonds and REITs [16][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - US stocks - Overweight [34] - European stocks - Overweight [35] - Chinese A - shares - Equal - weight [36] - Hong Kong stocks - Underweight [37] - Japanese stocks - Equal - weight [38] - Indian market - Overweight [39] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June 2025, different financial markets showed diverse trends, influenced by factors such as economic data, central bank policies, and trade relations. Stock markets had varying performances, with some reaching new highs. Bond markets were affected by economic and geopolitical events. The foreign exchange market was driven by interest rate expectations and trade policies. Commodity prices fluctuated due to supply - demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions. The report also provided investment ratings and reasons for different markets and selected funds based on specific criteria [34][56][64] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance Data - **Stock Markets**: In June 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index had a monthly increase of 6.27% and a YTD increase of 7.93%, while the European Stoxx 50 index decreased by 1.18% monthly but had an 8.32% YTD increase. The Hang Seng Index rose 3.36% in June and 20.00% YTD [1] - **Bond Markets**: The Bloomberg US Corporate High - Yield Bond Index increased 1.84% monthly and 4.57% YTD, while the Bloomberg European Aggregate Total Return Index decreased 0.09% monthly and had a 0.84% YTD increase [2] - **Commodity Markets**: Gold prices (in dollars per ounce) increased 0.42% monthly and 25.86% YTD, and New York crude oil futures (in dollars per barrel) increased 7.11% monthly but decreased 9.22% YTD [4] - **Foreign Exchange Markets**: The US dollar index decreased 2.47% monthly and 10.70% YTD, while the euro/dollar increased 3.88% monthly and 13.84% YTD [5] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis US Macroeconomy - **Employment**: In June, the US added 147,000 non - farm jobs, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. However, the growth mainly came from the government sector, and the actual employment pressure remained [9] - **Inflation**: In May, the US CPI increased 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased 2.8% year - on - year. Some categories affected by import tariffs had significant price increases [11] - **Retail Sales**: In May, US retail sales decreased 0.9% month - on - month, mainly due to the decline in automobile and gasoline sales [16] - **Services PMI**: In June, the US ISM Services PMI was 50.8, back in the expansion zone, while the S&P Global Services PMI was 52.9, showing differences between SMEs and large enterprises [18] Chinese Macroeconomy - **Consumption**: In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased 6.4% year - on - year, with significant growth in some categories due to promotional activities and policies [21] - **Real Estate**: In May, housing prices in Chinese cities showed a pattern of month - on - month decline and year - on - year narrowing of the decline [21] - **CPI and PPI**: In May, China's CPI decreased 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased 3.3% year - on - year, with different trends in different industries [21][23] - **Imports and Exports**: In May, China's exports increased 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year, with different performances in trade with different regions [23] - **PMI**: In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, indicating continued improvement in the economic climate [23] Central Bank Policies - **Canada**: On June 4, the Bank of Canada kept the key interest rate at 2.75%, waiting for clearer signals on trade conflicts [25] - **Europe**: On June 5, the European Central Bank cut the three key interest rates by 25 basis points, further releasing a loose monetary policy signal [25] - **Japan**: On June 17, the Bank of Japan kept the target interest rate at 0.5% and planned to reduce the scale of Japanese government bond purchases [25] - **US**: On June 18, the Fed kept the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.5%, with more officials cautious about interest rate cuts [27] - **UK**: On June 19, the Bank of England kept the policy rate at 4.25%, with more members worried about economic weakness [27] - **Switzerland**: On June 19, the Swiss National Bank cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0%, dealing with low inflation pressure [27] 3. Market Review and Outlook Stock Markets - **US Stocks**: In June, US stocks generally rose, with the S&P 500 hitting a new high. The reasons for the upgrade to overweight include trade friction mitigation, positive economic data, low inflation, and the irreplaceability of US stocks [34] - **European Stocks**: In June, European stocks were sluggish, but the market expected a trade agreement between the US and Europe. The reasons for maintaining the overweight rating include government fiscal spending, central bank interest rate cuts, and the attractiveness of European stocks as a diversification alternative [35] - **Chinese A - shares**: The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high in June. The reasons for the upgrade to equal - weight include progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, signs of economic bottoming, low capital costs, and expectations for the Politburo meeting [36] - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index exceeded 24,000 in June, but the Hang Seng Tech Index underperformed. The reasons for the downgrade to underweight include intensified competition in the Internet industry, a slowdown in new consumption, and a shortage of high - quality assets [37] - **Japanese Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 index exceeded 40,000 in June. The reasons for maintaining the equal - weight rating include the stalemate in US - Japan trade negotiations, corporate governance optimization, and Japan's exit from deflation [38] - **Indian Market**: The Indian stock market hit a new high in June. The reasons for maintaining the overweight rating include high - speed economic growth, the potential to benefit from manufacturing transfer, and a reasonable valuation considering growth [39] Bond Markets - **Primary Market**: In June 2025, 89 bonds were issued in the primary market of Chinese overseas bonds, including 46 US dollar bonds and 26 offshore RMB bonds. The issuance scale of US dollar bonds recovered, and the issuance of dim - sum bonds increased [44] - **Secondary Market**: As of June 30, 2025, the Markit iBoxx Chinese US dollar investment - grade bond index rose 0.89%, and the high - yield bond index rose 1.11% [47] Foreign Exchange Market - In June, the US dollar index declined for the sixth consecutive month, and the euro was strong. The RMB rose against the US dollar but had a lower increase compared to other major currencies [61] Commodity Market - Gold prices fluctuated at a high level, with short - term adjustment needs but long - term support. Crude oil prices rose first and then fell, with a significant discount indicating concerns about supply surplus. Iron ore prices dropped due to the weak real estate market and supply - side reform expectations [64] 4. Selected Funds - The report selected funds based on different criteria for different types of funds, including historical performance, expense ratio, and risk. For example, the Taikang Kaitai Hong Kong Dollar Money Fund was selected as a money - market fund, and the Invesco Global High - Grade Corporate Bond Fund USD Acc was selected as an investment - grade bond fund [66]