东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-07-11 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 海外周报 20250706：6 月超预期非农令市场降息预期延后至 9 月 核心观点：本周美越贸易协议与对华芯片设计软件出口限制解除提振市 场情绪，美股上涨；而经济数据的走强令美债利率随降息预期降温而大幅 上行，10 年期美债利率全周升 6.89bps 至 4.346%。本周美国"软数据" PMI 调查超预期，ISM 服务业 PMI 重回荣枯线之上。而周五公布的"硬 数据"美国 6 月非农就业再度超预期，失业率也有所回落，市场对此解 读偏乐观，7 月降息预期被彻底打消。此外本周特朗普《大美丽法案》 （OBBB）正式签署落地，债务上限进一步提高 5 万亿美元至 41 万亿美 元。由于《大美丽法案》带来的赤字增加预期已被市场关注许久，因此 OBBB 的落地或意味着"买预期、卖现实"的交易进入后半程。短期看， 30 年美债利率或 10s30s 期限利差的上行或因此告一段落。 风险提示： 特朗普政策超预期；美联储降息幅度过大引发通胀反弹甚至失控；美联储 维持高利率水平时间过长，引发金融系统流动性危机。 宏观量 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhaoli Pharmaceutical is expected to achieve significant growth in net profit and cash flow for the first half of 2025, driven by strong sales in core products and improved operational efficiency [3][4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Zhaoli Pharmaceutical anticipates a net profit of 368-388 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 24%-31%. The expected net profit for the second quarter is projected to be 187-207 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21%-34% [3]. - The company expects to generate operating cash flow of 270-290 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25%-35%, with a significant improvement in cash flow for the second quarter [3][4]. Revenue Growth - The sales revenue of core products, such as Wuling Capsules and Lingze Tablets, continues to show strong market growth, with expectations for accelerated sales in the second half of 2025 due to ongoing procurement agreements and expansion in OTC channels [4]. - The revenue growth rate for the Bai Ling series in the second quarter of 2025 is expected to exceed that of the first quarter, influenced by the national procurement policy for traditional Chinese medicine [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched the "一路向C" strategy to enhance its OTC business and focus on innovative health products. This includes changes in packaging, deepening collaborations with pharmacies and online channels, and digital marketing efforts [5][6]. - A strategic partnership with Zhejiang University has been established to leverage AI technology for developing innovative health products, which is expected to strengthen the company's technological capabilities and expand its market presence [6].

Core Viewpoint - Zhaoli Pharmaceutical (300181) is expected to achieve significant growth in net profit for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 24.30%-31.06%, driven by strong sales of its core products and strategic partnerships [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 36.8 million to 38.8 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 24.30%-31.06% [2]. - The expected net profit excluding the impact of share-based payment expenses is projected to increase by 28.94%-35.70% [2]. - Revenue is expected to grow approximately 12% year-on-year, with strong sales from core products such as Wuling Capsules and Lingze Tablets [2][3]. - The net cash flow from operating activities is projected to be between 27 million and 29 million yuan, showing significant improvement compared to the first quarter [2]. Strategic Initiatives - Zhaoli Pharmaceutical has signed a cooperation agreement with Zhejiang University to establish a joint research and development center, focusing on the health consumption sector under the "一路向C" (One Road to C) strategy [4][5]. - The company plans to invest a total of 20 million yuan in this collaboration, leveraging advanced technologies in computer science and biomedicine to enhance product development [4]. - The strategic upgrade will focus on optimizing OTC business and developing innovative health products, particularly utilizing Wuling fungus [5]. Market Position and Growth Strategy - The company has experienced rapid growth in revenue and net profit from 911 million yuan and 26 million yuan in 2019 to 2.578 billion yuan and 508 million yuan in 2024, respectively [3]. - Zhaoli Pharmaceutical aims to maintain its leading position in the tranquilizer market with Wuling Capsules while expanding its product line to include ten varieties under the Wuling series [5]. - The company is committed to achieving a 30% growth target in net profit as part of its equity incentive plan for 2025 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][19]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 2,939 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 14% [3][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach 687 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 35.3% [3][10]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its market presence and product offerings, particularly in the OTC segment, which has seen a revenue increase of 64% year-on-year [5][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 1,942 million yuan - 2024: 2,578 million yuan (growth rate: 32.7%) - 2025: 2,939 million yuan (growth rate: 14.0%) - 2026: 3,568 million yuan (growth rate: 21.4%) - 2027: 4,243 million yuan (growth rate: 18.9%) [3][11]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected as: - 2023: 383 million yuan - 2024: 508 million yuan (growth rate: 32.6%) - 2025: 687 million yuan (growth rate: 35.3%) - 2026: 902 million yuan (growth rate: 31.4%) - 2027: 1,106 million yuan (growth rate: 22.5%) [3][11]. - Key financial ratios include: - Return on Equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 14.1% in 2023 to 27.1% in 2027 [3][11]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.55 yuan in 2023 to 1.58 yuan in 2027 [3][11]. Strategic Developments - The company has signed a collaboration agreement with Zhejiang University to establish a joint research center, investing a total of 20 million yuan [2][4]. - The focus on AI and traditional medicine aims to enhance product development and market competitiveness, particularly in the health and wellness sector [4][10]. Market Positioning - The company is enhancing its OTC product matrix and has implemented various strategies to improve sales efficiency and market penetration [5][10]. - The core products, including Wuling Capsules and Lingze Tablets, are positioned as essential items in the national basic drug catalog, indicating strong market demand and growth potential [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 368-388 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 24%-31% [1] - The strategic upgrade towards a consumer-oriented approach is expected to enhance the company's market position and product competitiveness [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards due to uncertainties in product volume post-hospital procurement [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of 368-388 million yuan, with a growth rate of 25%-32% for the non-recurring net profit [1] - The operating cash flow is projected to be between 270-290 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25%-35% [1] - In Q2 2025, the expected net profit is between 187-207 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21%-34% [1] Revenue and Profitability - The core products are experiencing steady growth, with sales of specific products like Wuling Capsules and Lingze Tablets continuing to perform well [2] - The overall revenue growth in Q2 2025 is estimated at 3%, attributed to a decline in traditional Chinese medicine sales [2] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 is expected to increase by 2.3-3.5 percentage points due to a shift in revenue structure and cost control measures [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched a strategic upgrade termed "一路向 C" (Towards C), focusing on optimizing OTC business and developing innovative health products [3] - A strategic partnership with Zhejiang University aims to leverage AI technology for developing health management products, enhancing the company's technological edge [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 655 million yuan and 836 million yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease of 4.8% and 5.6% from previous estimates [4] - The projected P/E ratios for the upcoming years are 20, 16, and 12 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]

事件：2025 年H1，公司营业收入同比增长约12%；归母净利润预计3.68~3.88 亿元（+24.3%~31.06%， 同比增长24.3%~31.06%，下同），扣非归母净利润3.66~3.86 亿元（+25.36%~32.21%）。单Q2 季度来 看，公司实现营收7.8 亿元（+2.7%），预计归母净利润1.87~2.07 亿元（+21%~34%），扣非归母净利 润1.85~2.05 亿元（+25%~39%）。扣除股权激励费用影响，公司上半年归母净利润3.8~4.0 亿元，同比 增长28.9%~35.7%。超此前我们的利润预期。 风险提示：集采后放量不及预期风险，行业政策风险，市场竞争加剧风险等。 盈利预测与投资评级：我们维持预计2025-2027 年公司归母净利润为6.55/8.41/10.41 亿元，对应PE 估值 为20/16/13X。展望下半年，随着广东联盟扩围接续以及湖北中成药集采的陆续执行，公司乌灵胶囊、 百令系列放量均有望提速。维持"买入"评级。 核心产品稳健增长，院外OTC 开拓成效显著：分产品来看，乌灵系列维持稳健增长，百令系列增速有 所提升。单Q2 季度收入放缓的原因，主要系2024 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Zhaoli Pharmaceutical has signed a cooperation agreement with Zhejiang University to establish a joint research center focused on the integration of artificial intelligence in the development of health products based on the unique properties of the Wuling fungus [1][2] - The collaboration aims to create a knowledge graph for food and medicine, develop AI-driven models and intelligent agents for functional food formulation, and assist in the long-term technological development strategy of the company [1][2] - Zhaoli Pharmaceutical's strategy "一路向C" focuses on expanding into the consumer market, leveraging market opportunities arising from external policies and the aging population, while enhancing its product offerings and brand recognition [2] Group 2 - The company anticipates a strong financial performance, projecting a net profit of 36.8 million to 38.8 million yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.30% to 31.06% [3] - The sales revenue for the company increased by approximately 12% compared to the previous year, driven by core products such as Wuling capsules and Lingze tablets, which continue to show strong market growth [3] - The establishment of the research center is expected to enhance the company's technological capabilities, enrich its product matrix, and cultivate new profit growth points, thereby supporting sustainable development [2][3]

问题四：在 C 端无论是 OTC 还是消费品都面临着各种竞争，公 司如何建立自己的核心竞争力？ 证券代码：300181 证券简称：佐力药业 编号：2025-011 浙江佐力药业股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 | 投资者关系活动 | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 类别 | ☑媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | ☑新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | 其他 | | 参与单位名称及 | 长城证券；开源证券；长江证券；申万宏源；远信投资；永安 | | 人员姓名（以上 | 国富；信达证券；长信基金；富国基金；金百镕；兴业证券； | | | 兴业基金；海富通基金；深圳新思哲；广发资管；平安证券； | | 排名不分先后） | 华福证券；诺德基金；东吴证券；信诚基金；歌汝私募基金； | | | 光大证券；衡锐资本；东方证券；瓦琉咨询；方正证券；信达 | | | 澳亚基金；招商证券；蓝林科技；东财医药；山西恒天成；玖 | | | 龙资管；中邮证券；太平资产；金斧子资本；东海证券；中信 | | | 证券；浙商证券；华创证券；华泰证券；华泰柏瑞；华西证券； | | | ...

证券代码：300181 证券简称：佐力药业 编号：2025-010 浙江佐力药业股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 | 投资者关系活动 | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 类别 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | ☑现场参观 | | ☑其他 | （线上会议） | | 参与单位名称及 | 平安资管：张旭欣。 | | 人员姓名 | 长城证券：刘鹏、袁紫馨；东方基金：王芳玲、邵子馨；安信 | | | 基金：陈嵩昆；宏利基金：周少博；留仁资产：孙鼎立；海富 | | | 通基金：刘海啸；诺昌投资：许耀文。 | | 时间 2025 | 年 7 月 3 日 10:00-11:00 | | 2025 | 年 7 月 3 日 16:00-17:00 | | 地点 | 公司会议室、线上会议 | | 上市公司接待人 | 董事、常务副总经理：冯国富先生 | | 员姓名 | 董事会秘书：吴英女士 | | | 问题一：国家基药目录中是否有乌灵胶囊相关竞品？后续变化 | | | 是否会对公司产生影响？ | | | 答：现行的《国家基本药物目录》为 2018 年版 ...

作者 | 远禾 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 近几年来，集采制度极大冲击了西药行业。 去年年底，全国范围的中药饮片、中成药集采同时启动，折射出中药行业也并不太平。 今年 5月，全国约10个省份开始落实第一次全国中药饮片集采的中标结果，中药饮片正式迈入"集采时代"。 4月以来，中证中药指数却从最低的9051点一路上涨至6月3日的10054点，两个月内上涨超10%。 最近，中证中药指数又开始接连大幅下跌。 在没有安全区的集采政策里，中药企业正在面临更为严重的冲击。 而中药行业，或许也将迎来大规模洗牌。 01 在西药开始大规模集采后的很长一段时间里，中药都被视为集采的安全区。 然而近些年，中成药、中药饮片接连遭遇大规模集采。 2023年8月，山东省推进了中药配方颗粒的集采。去年的集采中，安徽省的中成药集采 甚至波及到了部分OTC药品。 而在去年的中药饮片联采中，集采范围从最开始的 15个省市扩大到了全国，品种数量也翻倍，增加到了45个品种，对行业的影响逐步扩大。 彼时，许多中选企业的报价已经近乎成本价，甚至部分企业仍处于战略性亏损状态。 也是因此，集采中选后，不少企业预计 2025 ...