东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-07-11 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 海外周报 20250706：6 月超预期非农令市场降息预期延后至 9 月 核心观点：本周美越贸易协议与对华芯片设计软件出口限制解除提振市 场情绪，美股上涨；而经济数据的走强令美债利率随降息预期降温而大幅 上行，10 年期美债利率全周升 6.89bps 至 4.346%。本周美国"软数据" PMI 调查超预期，ISM 服务业 PMI 重回荣枯线之上。而周五公布的"硬 数据"美国 6 月非农就业再度超预期，失业率也有所回落，市场对此解 读偏乐观，7 月降息预期被彻底打消。此外本周特朗普《大美丽法案》 （OBBB）正式签署落地，债务上限进一步提高 5 万亿美元至 41 万亿美 元。由于《大美丽法案》带来的赤字增加预期已被市场关注许久，因此 OBBB 的落地或意味着"买预期、卖现实"的交易进入后半程。短期看， 30 年美债利率或 10s30s 期限利差的上行或因此告一段落。 风险提示： 特朗普政策超预期；美联储降息幅度过大引发通胀反弹甚至失控；美联储 维持高利率水平时间过长，引发金融系统流动性危机。 宏观量 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhaoli Pharmaceutical is expected to achieve significant growth in net profit and cash flow for the first half of 2025, driven by strong sales in core products and improved operational efficiency [3][4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Zhaoli Pharmaceutical anticipates a net profit of 368-388 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 24%-31%. The expected net profit for the second quarter is projected to be 187-207 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21%-34% [3]. - The company expects to generate operating cash flow of 270-290 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25%-35%, with a significant improvement in cash flow for the second quarter [3][4]. Revenue Growth - The sales revenue of core products, such as Wuling Capsules and Lingze Tablets, continues to show strong market growth, with expectations for accelerated sales in the second half of 2025 due to ongoing procurement agreements and expansion in OTC channels [4]. - The revenue growth rate for the Bai Ling series in the second quarter of 2025 is expected to exceed that of the first quarter, influenced by the national procurement policy for traditional Chinese medicine [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched the "一路向C" strategy to enhance its OTC business and focus on innovative health products. This includes changes in packaging, deepening collaborations with pharmacies and online channels, and digital marketing efforts [5][6]. - A strategic partnership with Zhejiang University has been established to leverage AI technology for developing innovative health products, which is expected to strengthen the company's technological capabilities and expand its market presence [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][19]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 2,939 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 14% [3][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach 687 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 35.3% [3][10]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its market presence and product offerings, particularly in the OTC segment, which has seen a revenue increase of 64% year-on-year [5][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 1,942 million yuan - 2024: 2,578 million yuan (growth rate: 32.7%) - 2025: 2,939 million yuan (growth rate: 14.0%) - 2026: 3,568 million yuan (growth rate: 21.4%) - 2027: 4,243 million yuan (growth rate: 18.9%) [3][11]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected as: - 2023: 383 million yuan - 2024: 508 million yuan (growth rate: 32.6%) - 2025: 687 million yuan (growth rate: 35.3%) - 2026: 902 million yuan (growth rate: 31.4%) - 2027: 1,106 million yuan (growth rate: 22.5%) [3][11]. - Key financial ratios include: - Return on Equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 14.1% in 2023 to 27.1% in 2027 [3][11]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.55 yuan in 2023 to 1.58 yuan in 2027 [3][11]. Strategic Developments - The company has signed a collaboration agreement with Zhejiang University to establish a joint research center, investing a total of 20 million yuan [2][4]. - The focus on AI and traditional medicine aims to enhance product development and market competitiveness, particularly in the health and wellness sector [4][10]. Market Positioning - The company is enhancing its OTC product matrix and has implemented various strategies to improve sales efficiency and market penetration [5][10]. - The core products, including Wuling Capsules and Lingze Tablets, are positioned as essential items in the national basic drug catalog, indicating strong market demand and growth potential [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 368-388 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 24%-31% [1] - The strategic upgrade towards a consumer-oriented approach is expected to enhance the company's market position and product competitiveness [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards due to uncertainties in product volume post-hospital procurement [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of 368-388 million yuan, with a growth rate of 25%-32% for the non-recurring net profit [1] - The operating cash flow is projected to be between 270-290 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25%-35% [1] - In Q2 2025, the expected net profit is between 187-207 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21%-34% [1] Revenue and Profitability - The core products are experiencing steady growth, with sales of specific products like Wuling Capsules and Lingze Tablets continuing to perform well [2] - The overall revenue growth in Q2 2025 is estimated at 3%, attributed to a decline in traditional Chinese medicine sales [2] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 is expected to increase by 2.3-3.5 percentage points due to a shift in revenue structure and cost control measures [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched a strategic upgrade termed "一路向 C" (Towards C), focusing on optimizing OTC business and developing innovative health products [3] - A strategic partnership with Zhejiang University aims to leverage AI technology for developing health management products, enhancing the company's technological edge [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 655 million yuan and 836 million yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease of 4.8% and 5.6% from previous estimates [4] - The projected P/E ratios for the upcoming years are 20, 16, and 12 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of approximately 12% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 368 to 388 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.3% to 31.06% [7] - The core products are showing steady growth, with significant results from the expansion of the OTC (over-the-counter) channels, which is expected to enhance the company's profitability [7] - The strategic layout of "Wuling Fungus+" is anticipated to open a second growth curve in the medium term, with plans to invest 20 million yuan in developing unique products related to Wuling Fungus [7] Financial Forecasts - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach 3,178 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 23.29% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 655.34 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.06% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.93 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.26 based on the current price [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's profitability is steadily improving, with revenue and profit reaching a new quarterly high [1] - The core products are showing robust growth, and the company's profit margins are being maintained despite price pressures from collective procurement [8] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, particularly in the OTC market, while maintaining a high dividend payout ratio [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 25.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.71% [8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to be 5.08 billion yuan, also reflecting a 32.60% increase [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be 0.72 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.99 [1][9] Product Performance Summary - The revenue from the Wuling series is expected to reach 14.38 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.14% [8] - The Chinese herbal medicine series is projected to generate 6.73 billion yuan in revenue, marking a significant increase of 46.02% [8] - The revenue from Chinese herbal formula granules is anticipated to grow by 143.19%, reaching 1.02 billion yuan [8] Future Projections - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 6.55 billion yuan in 2025 and 8.41 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17 and 13 [8] - By 2027, the net profit is expected to reach 10.41 billion yuan, with a P/E ratio of 11 [1][9]

Core Insights - The company reported a stable growth trend in Q1 2025, with revenue of 10.736 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.12%, and a net profit of 915 million yuan, up 6.06% [1] - The pharmaceutical industrial sector continues to be a key growth driver, with core subsidiary China East Pharmaceutical achieving revenue of 3.621 billion yuan, a 6.52% increase, and a net profit of 843 million yuan, up 12.20% [2] - The company is focusing on innovation, with over 80 projects in its pipeline, and has significantly increased R&D investment by 49.60% to 880 million yuan in Q1 2025 [4] Business Segments - The innovative drug sales in the pharmaceutical industrial sector are gaining momentum, particularly with the expansion of reimbursement indications for the Bai Ling series products [2] - The CAR-T product, Zewokaiolun, has shown strong sales performance, with over 200 certified medical institutions and 154 effective orders placed by the partner company [3] - The company’s self-developed GLP-1 receptor agonist, HDM1002, has entered the final stages of clinical trials, indicating a robust pipeline in the endocrine field [5][6] Medical Aesthetics - The medical aesthetics segment is showing resilience, with the subsidiary Sinclair achieving approximately 238 million yuan in revenue, a 24.37% increase from the previous quarter [9] - The company has a portfolio of 40 high-end medical aesthetic products, with 26 already launched globally, indicating a strong market presence [9] - New products in the medical aesthetics field, including injectable products, are expected to drive further growth in 2025 [10] Future Outlook - The company aims to leverage its innovative capabilities and product differentiation to expand its market share in the medical aesthetics sector, which is projected to grow steadily [12] - The pharmaceutical industrial sector is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, supported by ongoing market expansion and product pipeline development [12] - The overall performance in Q1 2025 reflects the company's commitment to innovation and growth, positioning it for future success in the pharmaceutical and medical aesthetics industries [12]

百令系列中选全国中成药集采，有望实现以价换量公司核心产品百令系列主要包括百令片、百令胶 囊等，百令片为成熟品种，百令胶囊于2023 年12 月29 日获得国家药监局颁发的《药品注册证书》，成 为全国首个获批的同名同方药，于2024 年12 月正式销售。公司百令片中标2024 年京津冀"3+N"联盟药 品集采，有助于增加在"3+N"联盟地区（包括天津、四川、湖北等21 个联盟省份）的竞争力，同时，百 令片和百令胶囊中选2024 年全国中成药集采，有望改善百令片2021 年未中选湖北联盟集采的不利影 响。短期看，百令片2024 年销量增长15.25%，价格下降3%致收入减少7.23%，但长期看，集采中选有 望实现以价换量，带来百令系列的恢复性增长。 佐力药业(300181)：业绩保持稳健增长 以价换量效 果显著 事件： 公司发布2024 年度业绩快报及2025 年一季度业绩预告。2024 年实现营收25.80 亿元，同比增长 32.81%；归母净利润5.05 亿元，同比增长31.79%；扣非归母净利润5.03 亿元，同比增长34.75%；EPS 为0.72 元/股。2025 年一季度实现归母净利润1.78-1.8 ...