Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor market is expected to strengthen in 2026, driven by AI demand and domestic substitution, with a notable increase in semiconductor equipment and materials [1] Group 1: Semiconductor Equipment and ETF Performance - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) opened up by 1.15% on January 12, with a net inflow of nearly 100 million yuan over the past two trading days [1] - The index tracked by the semiconductor equipment ETF has risen over 15% this year, outperforming mainstream semiconductor indices [3] - Key stocks such as Zhongwei Company and Cambrian have seen significant gains, with Zhongwei up nearly 4% and Jianghua Micro up over 5% [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Price Increases - A significant increase in trading volume in A-shares has initiated a spring market rally, with semiconductor equipment leading the upward trend [5] - International storage giants are expected to raise server DRAM prices by 60% to 70% in Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025 [6] - SanDisk has proposed a unique supply contract requiring 100% cash prepayment from clients to secure storage chip allocations for 1 to 3 years [6] Group 3: Domestic Substitution and Material Demand - The domestic substitution process for semiconductor materials is advancing, with a recent anti-dumping investigation into dichlorodihydrosilane (DCS) from Japan, a key electronic chemical material [6] - The demand for semiconductor materials and electronic chemicals is expected to rise due to AI data centers and the urgent need for low-latency, high-bandwidth memory solutions [7] - The global semiconductor materials market is projected to reach approximately $70 billion by 2025, with a 6% year-on-year growth [7] Group 4: Industry Outlook and Key Players - The trend of "supply security + domestic substitution" for critical semiconductor materials is strengthening amid rising security concerns [8] - Companies with technological accumulation and capacity in high-end materials are likely to see market share and profit growth as advanced processes and domestic substitution trends continue [8] - The semiconductor equipment ETF focuses on leading companies in the sector, with over 90% of its holdings in the high-tech, high-value upstream and midstream areas of the semiconductor industry [8]

Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor industry is expected to strengthen in 2026, driven by AI demand and domestic substitution, with a notable increase in semiconductor equipment and materials [1] Group 1: Semiconductor Equipment and ETF Performance - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) opened up 1.15% on January 12, with a net inflow of nearly 100 million yuan over the past two trading days [1] - The index tracked by the semiconductor equipment ETF has risen over 15% this year, outperforming mainstream semiconductor indices [2] - Key stocks such as Zhongwei Company and Cambrian have seen significant gains, with Zhongwei up nearly 4% and Jianghua Micro up over 5% [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Pricing - A significant increase in trading volume in A-shares indicates the start of a spring market, with semiconductor equipment leading the upward trend [4] - NVIDIA's new AI chip architecture, Vera Rubin, showcases a fivefold increase in inference performance compared to the previous generation, indicating a surge in storage demand [5] - Major international storage companies plan to raise server DRAM prices by 60% to 70% in Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025 [5] Group 3: Domestic Substitution and Material Demand - The domestic substitution process for semiconductor materials is advancing, with a recent anti-dumping investigation into dichlorodihydrosilane from Japan, a key material for chip manufacturing [5] - The demand for semiconductor materials and electronic chemicals is expected to rise due to the upgrade of storage driven by AI data centers [6] - The global semiconductor materials market is projected to reach approximately $70 billion by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6% [6] Group 4: Industry Outlook and Key Players - The trend of "supply security + domestic substitution" for key semiconductor materials is strengthening, driven by AI computing and data center demands [7] - Leading companies with technological accumulation and production capacity in high-end materials are expected to gain market share and profitability amid advanced process promotion and domestic substitution trends [7] - The semiconductor equipment ETF focuses on leading companies in the sector, with over 90% of its holdings in the upper and mid-stream areas of the semiconductor industry, which have the highest technical barriers and value concentration [7]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 2025年在AI算力、数据中心与智能驾驶等拉动下，全球半导体销售额在2024年复苏基础上进一步增长。根 据SIA数据，2025年1-11月全球半导体销售额约为6874亿美元，同比增长22.7%；中国大陆半导体销售额约 为1896亿美元，同比增长13.5%。与此同时，晶圆产能加速扩张，SEMI预计2028年全球12英寸晶圆月产能 达1110万片，对应2024-2028年期间CAGR约为7%，其中7nm及以下先进制程月产能将由85万片增至140万 片，对应期间CAGR约为14%。此外，根据SEMI的统计及预测，中国大陆已投产及在建的晶圆代工厂数量 将由2024年的29座增长至2027年的71座。 AI数据中心推动存储升级，带动半导体材料与电子化学品需求持续提升 由于数据中心和AI处理器对低延迟、高带宽内存解决方案的迫切需求，全球高带宽存储（HBM）的出货量 得到快速提升。但HBM制程与封装更复杂、单位比特晶圆面积消耗显著高于传统DRAM，从而抬升相关半 导体材料消耗。TECHCET预计2025年全球半导体材料市场规模约700亿美元，同比增长6%，同时预计 2029年半导体材料市场规模 ...

本次反倾销立案调查将直接利好国内二氯二氢硅 (DCS) 生产企业，同时推动下游半导体制造企业加 速国产替代，上游原材料供应商也将间接受益。 直接利好二氯二氢硅中游生产企业。 作者 | 小鑫 编辑 | 小白 1月7日，商务部公告，对原产于日本的进口二氯二氢硅进行反倾销立案调查，本次调查确定的倾销调 查期为2024年7月1日至2025年6月30日，产业损害调查期为2022年1月1日至2025年6月30日。 国产替代加速受 氢硅反倾销概念 制图:市值风云APP 1月7日，商务部公告：对原产于日本进口二氯二氢硅进行反倾销立案调查。 倾销调查期：2024.7.1-2025.6.30 | 产业损害调查期：2022.1.1-2025.6.30 直接利好国内DCS企业,推动半导体国产替代,上游受益。 政策利好直击产业链 中游:电子级 DCS 制造 (核心) 下游:芯片制造 & 应用 逻辑/存储/模拟芯片, 显示面板 受益概念股分类整理 1. 中游核心受益企业 2. 上游原材料供应商 3. 下游应用领域 直送最最大) E = r m s = = (间接受益 资源端支撑 晶圆制造龙头 核心国产替代商 ノ三孚股份 2 八雅克科技 ...