商业供给多元 过去一年，北京实体商业在商业供给、空间布局与体验创新上实现多重突破，为消费市场注入强劲活 力。北京商报记者从北京市商务局获悉，2025年前11个月，北京新增首店数量960余家，在消费场景创 新、业态多元拓展与区域布局优化上实现高质量发展。自2019年以来北京市累计吸引超5000家首店落 地，培育三里屯太古里等12个全球首发中心。 在品牌培育方面，北京市场上国际风范与京韵文化交相辉映。国际品牌集聚度稳居全国前列，累计认定 老佛爷、星巴克等26家消费类跨国公司地区总部。2026北京时装周联动隆福寺、古北水镇等标志性场 地，汇集300余个全球品牌，打造超150场线下时尚盛宴。本土品牌同样繁荣，北京市拥有老字号总数 274家，其中中华老字号137家。 此外，北京实体商业不再局限于"商品交易"功能，而是转向"场景化、沉浸式"体验打造。在商圈升级方 面，北京连续两年出台品质提升政策，重点支持消费空间从"单一功能"向"多元体验"转型。同时，北京 构建"街区、近山、亲水、演艺、赛事、数字、夜间"的融合矩阵，推出蓝色港湾、檀谷等百余个典型案 例。 另一方面，特色商业街区成为"城市名片"。2025年上半年，丰台区长 ...

同时，为保障包括农村地区在内"国补"的真实有效发放，京东物流基于AI图像检测、数据验证、LBS（位置服务）和电子围栏等技术，为购买手机、平 板、智能穿戴等国补商品的消费者提供一站式服务，京东快递小哥送货上门的同时，帮助消费者实现上门签收、激活、校验等流程，让消费者足不出户就能 享受国补换新机，尽享一站式换新体验。 为更好配合以旧换新政策落地普惠，支持国补战略进乡村，进一步促进乡村消费提振，京东在承接以旧换新工作的基础上，2025年累计投入近300亿， 用于商品补贴、营销推广、物流履约、服务能力建设等。这一方面旨在为广大乡镇农村消费者，带去国家补贴与京东补贴的多重福利与海量国补产品，以及 一站式高效国补换新体验，一方面旨在拉动市场消费活力，助力当地经济高质量增长。京东一系列乡村助力举措给乡镇及以下区域的消费带来了显著增长， 2025年乡镇及以下地区京东订单量同比增长64%，用户数同比增长38%。 目前，京东已做好全面承接准备，将第一时间上线"国补"活动会场。同时，为更好支持国补战略进乡村，落实这一重大政策的普惠性，京东2025年已投 入近300亿支持国补进乡村，促进乡村消费提振和经济高质量发展。2026年，京东 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation plan aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, potentially creating a new consumption market worth trillions by 2027 through structural reforms and financial support [1] Group 1: Policy and Financial Support - The plan emphasizes the need for stronger fiscal and financial support to stimulate domestic demand, including the introduction of diverse consumer finance products [1] - Financial institutions are actively launching initiatives such as interest-free installment payments and discounts to boost consumer spending [2] - The "old for new" policy has significantly contributed to market growth, with sales exceeding 2.4 trillion yuan and benefiting over 360 million people in the first ten months of the year [1][2] Group 2: Consumer Finance Trends - Consumer finance is becoming a crucial driver for retail credit, with policies supporting low-cost funding for consumption loans [4] - The retail sales of major consumer goods like home appliances and automobiles have shown robust growth, with retail sales of home appliances and furniture increasing by approximately 20% year-on-year [5] - Financial tools such as installment services are lowering purchase barriers, enhancing the consumption of large-ticket items [5] Group 3: Regional Initiatives - Local governments are implementing supportive policies to enhance regional consumption quality, as seen in Beijing's plan to boost various consumer sectors [7] - As of Q3 2025, Beijing's consumer loan balance (excluding personal housing loans) reached 808.78 billion yuan, growing by 4.7% year-on-year, indicating a stronger growth rate than the national average [7]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant impact of the "trade-in" policy on consumer behavior and the economy, showcasing impressive statistics that reflect its success in promoting green consumption and economic stability [5][9]. Group 1: Trade-in Program Statistics - 8.3 million trade-in applications for vehicles have been recorded since 2025 [2]. - 8.465 million electric bicycles have been exchanged in the first half of this year [2]. - Over 110 million units of 12 major categories of home appliances have been traded in this year [3]. Group 2: Growth in Recycling and Recovery - The recycling and dismantling rates of waste home appliances have increased by 14.83% and 20% year-on-year, respectively [4]. - The Ministry of Finance has allocated 69 billion yuan for the third batch of trade-in funds [5]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Consumer Reach - The trade-in program has generated over 1.9 trillion yuan in sales related to consumer goods, benefiting more than 320 million people [5]. - The combination of government subsidies, financial support, and merchant discounts has created a powerful effect in stimulating consumption [5][6]. Group 4: E-commerce Platform Innovations - E-commerce platforms are enhancing consumer experience through various incentives, such as JD's dual subsidies and Pinduoduo's additional recycling subsidies [6]. - Tmall's trade-in program covers over 1,600 categories and 20,000 products, with daily visits exceeding 150 million [6]. Group 5: Financial Services and Consumer Demand - Financial services are crucial for supporting the trade-in program, with a focus on consumer needs for simple, safe, and low-cost options [7]. - Green consumption is increasingly driven by consumer preferences for energy-efficient and environmentally certified products, with over 90% of home appliance sales being of first-level energy efficiency [7]. Group 6: Supply Chain and Green Transformation - The trade-in policy is fostering a closed-loop system in production, with a significant increase in the recycling of waste electrical and electronic products [8]. - Companies are integrating recycled materials into their production processes, enhancing product sustainability [8]. Group 7: Challenges and Future Directions - Challenges remain in the form of high pricing for green products and inadequate recycling networks [9]. - A collaborative effort among government, financial institutions, businesses, and consumers is necessary to enhance the effectiveness of the trade-in program and promote green consumption [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how JD.com, under the leadership of Liu Qiangdong, prioritizes employee welfare and long-term sustainability over immediate profits, contrasting with industry trends focused on efficiency and cost-cutting [3][10]. Group 1: Company Strategy - JD.com reported a revenue of 1,158.8 billion yuan in 2023, but its net profit was only 41.4 billion yuan, significantly lower than competitors like Moutai, which had a net profit of 89.3 billion yuan [3]. - The company has added over 20,000 full-time employees in 2023, while competitors like Pinduoduo have seen significant profit growth without similar increases in workforce [7]. - JD.com is investing in long-term strategies, such as a trade-in service and rural logistics integration, which focus on building a sustainable system rather than just driving immediate sales [8]. Group 2: Employee Welfare - JD.com emphasizes providing formal contracts and social security for employees, which is seen as a luxury in the current job market [5]. - The company has implemented initiatives like interest-free housing loans for employees and building warehouses in remote areas, which do not directly impact profit margins but may strengthen the company's foundation for future growth [10]. - Liu Qiangdong's philosophy is that making money is not the only measure of success; ensuring employee security and dignity is equally important [10][12]. Group 3: Industry Context - The current industry trend is towards efficiency, cost reduction, and automation, while JD.com is taking a contrary approach by hiring more staff and investing in employee benefits [10]. - The article raises concerns about the future of the industry if companies prioritize profits over human considerations, questioning the sustainability of such a model [12].

Core Insights - The 618 shopping festival is evolving, reflecting changes in consumer behavior and market dynamics, with a shift towards more rational consumption and new trends emerging [1][2]. Group 1: Trends in E-commerce - The 618 festival has expanded internationally, with Chinese products finding new markets abroad, particularly in the U.S., due to favorable trade conditions [3][6][7]. - E-commerce platforms are simplifying their promotional rules, moving away from complex discount structures to more straightforward pricing strategies, enhancing the shopping experience [9][12]. - There is a resurgence of focus on extreme cost-performance ratios, with consumers prioritizing value optimization over mere low prices [13][14]. Group 2: Consumer Preferences - Consumers are increasingly seeking personalized products and niche brands, reflecting a desire for unique and customized shopping experiences [15][16]. - The integration of content and e-commerce is becoming seamless, allowing consumers to purchase directly from social media platforms, enhancing convenience [17][19]. - Instant retail is gaining traction, with consumers expecting rapid delivery times, transforming the logistics landscape [20][22]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Platforms are shifting their focus from low prices to quality and service, indicating a move towards refined operations in the e-commerce sector [23]. - The "trade-in" model is stimulating market activity, particularly in durable goods, by encouraging consumers to upgrade their products [24][26]. - The potential of lower-tier markets is being recognized, with brands and platforms targeting these areas for growth opportunities [28][30]. Group 4: Technological Integration - AI is enhancing the shopping experience, making interactions with products and platforms more efficient and personalized [31][33][36]. - The overall landscape of the 618 festival is transforming, with a focus on consumer-led trends, value-driven purchases, and technological advancements [37].

Core Insights - The consumer platform "What Worth Buying" released the consumption trend for the "618" mid-year shopping festival, indicating a strong interest in "trade-in" programs, with related keywords' GMV increasing by 26.37% year-on-year [1] - Experience-based consumption is becoming a significant driver for many consumers, with ticket sales for movies, concerts, and events seeing a GMV increase of 555.90% year-on-year [1] - Other categories such as gaming hardware, outdoor equipment, and photography also experienced substantial growth, with GMV increases of 300.19%, 62.20%, and 18.01% respectively [1] Category Summaries - **Trade-in Programs**: The enthusiasm for "trade-in" remains high, contributing to a 26.37% year-on-year growth in GMV for related keywords, with significant increases in categories like audio playback, home appliances, and mobile communications, which saw GMV growth of 54.84%, 44.38%, and 29.08% respectively [1] - **Experience Consumption**: Experience-based purchases are gaining traction, with ticket sales for entertainment events showing a remarkable growth of 555.90% year-on-year, indicating a shift towards experiential spending [1] - **Other Categories**: The gaming hardware sector saw a GMV increase of 300.19%, while outdoor gear and photography equipment also showed growth rates of 62.20% and 18.01% respectively, highlighting diverse consumer interests [1]

Group 1: China People's Insurance Group - In 2024, China People's Insurance Group provided risk coverage of 31.75 trillion yuan, paid out 448.5 billion yuan in claims, and handled over 180 million claims, leading the industry in all three metrics [1] - The company launched the first comprehensive insurance for pilot projects nationwide and issued the first batch of major technology innovation insurance products, with an investment scale of 32.7 billion yuan [1] - China People's Insurance Group signed the United Nations Principles for Sustainable Insurance and insured 11.59 million new energy vehicles, with green risk coverage of 184 trillion yuan and an investment scale of 100.4 billion yuan for green development [1] Group 2: Digital Financial Innovation - In 2024, China People's Insurance Group's insurance solutions for the computing power industry were included in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's pilot program for cybersecurity insurance services [2] - The company has developed over 150 general AI capabilities, with daily usage exceeding 1 million times, and its proprietary AI model products have been applied in over 10 scenarios [2] Group 3: Overseas Payment Services - In Q1 2025, UnionPay's mobile payment transactions in Australia and New Zealand increased by over four times year-on-year, with Auckland's public transport transactions growing tenfold since the launch of UnionPay's contactless payment service [5] - UnionPay has established a comprehensive payment service network in Australia and New Zealand, with nearly all POS merchants and ATMs accepting UnionPay payments [6] Group 4: JD Group's Supply Chain Advantage - JD Group launched a 200 billion yuan export-to-domestic sales support plan to help foreign trade enterprises expand into the domestic market, with thousands of companies already in substantive procurement discussions [7] - The company has implemented a trade-in program since 2015, covering over 200 categories and reaching over 90% of rural areas in China [7][8] Group 5: Yangtze River Pharmaceutical Group - Yangtze River Pharmaceutical Group is focused on building a world-class pharmaceutical brand and has been recognized for its intelligent manufacturing capabilities [9] - The company has established 80 traditional Chinese medicine planting bases and is committed to enhancing its health management services [10] Group 6: Luzhou Laojiao Group - Luzhou Laojiao Group integrates traditional culture with modern technology to enhance its competitive edge and promote high-quality development in the liquor industry [11] - The company has established a national-level solid-state brewing technology innovation center and is developing a digital platform for the entire industry chain [11] Group 7: China Feihe Limited - China Feihe emphasizes independent innovation to enhance its core competitiveness and has established a full industry chain in the dairy sector [13] - The company has developed domestic production lines for key dairy ingredients and launched a leading infant formula based on extensive breast milk research [14] Group 8: WeBank - WeBank has served over 420 million individual customers and more than 580,000 small and micro enterprises through its digital financial products [16] - The bank maintains a high level of technology investment, with over 50% of its staff being technology personnel, and has developed over 220 AI applications [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group [7] Core Views - JD Group's revenue for 4Q24 increased by 13.4% year-on-year to RMB 347 billion, exceeding the expected growth of 9.0%. The non-GAAP net profit reached RMB 11.3 billion, a 34.2% increase, driven by better-than-expected operating profit in the retail segment [1][2] - The "trade-in" initiative is expected to support revenue growth in 2025, while exploration in new business areas like food delivery is crucial for long-term growth and valuation expansion [1][3] - The company has a low trading valuation multiple of 9.4x for 2025E non-GAAP PE, alongside significant shareholder returns planned for 2024, which includes a buyback of USD 3.6 billion and dividends of USD 1.5 billion [1][4] Revenue and Profitability - JD Retail's total revenue for 4Q24 was RMB 307.1 billion, up 14.7% year-on-year, with operating profit of RMB 10 billion, a 44.7% increase [2] - The number of active buyers has seen double-digit growth for five consecutive quarters, with 4Q24 growth reaching the highest in nearly five quarters [2] - The "trade-in" initiative contributed to a 15.8% increase in revenue from electronic products, while daily necessities grew by 11.1% [2] Business Exploration and Profit Impact - JD is actively exploring new business scenarios like food delivery to enhance user engagement and transaction scenarios, which may have a limited impact on profits in 2025 [3] - The adjusted net profit for JD Group in 2025 is expected to grow by 7.6% to RMB 51.5 billion, with a stable adjusted net profit margin [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the non-GAAP net profit forecast for 2025/2026 upwards by 0.7% and 4.9% to RMB 51.5 billion and RMB 58.3 billion, respectively, and introduces a 2027 forecast of RMB 64.9 billion [4][21] - The target price based on SOTP valuation is set at USD 51.88 per ADS and HKD 201.57 per ordinary share, reflecting a valuation multiple of 10.8x, 9.5x, and 8.6x for 2025/2026/2027E non-GAAP PE [4][23]