乳业调整期漫漫，蒙牛仍未盼来曙光。 上半年，蒙牛实现营业收入415.67亿元，同比下滑6.9%，销量与价格均出现低个位数下滑。 受益于原奶价格下降，蒙牛上半年毛利率提升1.4个百分点至41.7%，推动经营利润同比增长超13.4%， 达35亿元。 原奶价格下降也导致以现代牧业为代表的联营企业业绩承压，使蒙牛承受5.45亿元的账面亏损，抵消了 成本下降对净利润的修复。 上半年，蒙牛归母净利润同比下降16.4%至20.46亿元，净利率下滑0.6个百分点。 公司管理层指出，若剔除该联营公司亏损的影响，归母净利润实际可与去年同期持平。 行业对需求复苏、竞争格局改善的前景预期并不乐观。 国内奶牛存栏量自2024年起持续下降，进入2025年后始终处于同比负增长状态。 尽管行业处于产能出清阶段，但凭借产业链韧性支撑，上半年牛奶产量仍实现0.5%的同比增长，奶价 则持续在每公斤3元左右徘徊。 市场普遍预计，周期实质性反转的节点已推迟至2026年。 蒙牛所面临的压力也不仅来自宏观消费疲软与行业周期影响，而更多源于品类结构与渠道布局的失衡。 在常温液奶占据绝对核心的收入结构下，蒙牛的第二增长曲线尚不明晰。 若无法在结构性短板上取得 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue growth but a decline in net profit, while showing strong growth in non-recurring net profit [1][4]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 61.777 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.39%. The non-recurring net profit was 7.016 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.78% [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 28.838 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with net profit of 2.326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.65%, and non-recurring net profit of 2.387 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.48% [1]. Product Performance - The liquid milk segment generated revenue of 16.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%, indicating ongoing pressure in the ambient milk market, although the decline was less severe due to a low base from the previous year. Conversely, the low-temperature liquid milk segment saw growth, with the "Changqing" brand achieving double-digit growth and low-temperature white milk increasing over 20% year-on-year [2]. - Revenue from milk powder and dairy products was 7.765 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.65%, driven by a recovery in the infant formula market and strengthened competitiveness. The ice cream segment generated revenue of 4.124 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.96%, benefiting from higher summer temperatures and increased consumer spending [2]. Operational Efficiency - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 34.19%, an increase of 0.61 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to cost advantages and a higher proportion of high-margin products like milk powder. The overall expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs improved, with a notable decrease in advertising and marketing expenses [3]. - The company experienced a reduction in credit impairment losses and asset impairment losses, contributing to a net profit margin of 7.94%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit margin improved to 8.28%, up 2.41 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - For H2 2025, the company expects steady revenue growth driven by healthy inventory levels in ambient milk, innovative low-temperature products, and a recovery in infant formula demand. The cold drink segment is also anticipated to continue its strong performance due to a low base from the previous year [4]. - The company is positioned for improved profitability as it enters Q3, with expectations of stabilizing milk prices and reduced impairment pressures, indicating a clear trend of profit improvement [4].