来源：总裁读书会 作者：李莹，总裁读书会小书僮，总裁读书会微信公众号责任编辑 2022年盛夏，成都新津区天府农博园的烈日下，一支数百人的队伍踏着热浪启程。71岁的刘永好走在最前方，带领新希望管理 层与员工代表徒步10公里，重返位于顺江乡古家村的希望饲料厂——那个40年前，他和三位兄长砸锅卖铁开启创业之路的起 点。彼时的中国，改革开放的春风初拂，"下海"还是惊世骇俗的选择；四十年后，这家从川西乡村走出的企业，已成长为横跨 农牧、食品、科技、金融的世界500强，而刘永好的名字，也成为中国民营企业家坚守与创新的代名词。 秦朔团队耗时数年打磨的《焕新——刘永好和新希望的40年》，以150多小时的深度采访、140多万字的原始资料，还原了这段 横跨四代人的创业史诗。书中没有空洞的商业理论，只有一个个浸润着时代温度的故事，而这些故事的核心，始终是刘永好身 上那些穿越周期的优秀特质：于喧嚣中守清醒的远见、于变局中敢破局的勇气、于发展中守本心的利他、于传承中谋革新的智 慧。 远见： 于狂欢处断舍离，从鹌鹑大王到饲料帝国 1986年底的新津县，正沉浸在鹌鹑养殖的狂热中。全县3000万只鹌鹑每天产出超3000万枚蛋，养殖户们争相涌 ...

Core Insights - New Hope Dairy successfully utilizes emotional resonance and innovative storytelling in its microfilm "Chinese Style Freshness" to engage consumers and enhance brand marketing [1][2] - The film has been recognized as an influential communication case in the 2025 New Consumption and New Economy Awards hosted by Caijing [1] Group 1: Marketing Strategy - New Hope Dairy employs a unique narrative structure that combines unexpected plot twists with relatable parenting themes, making the content engaging and humorous [2] - The four short films target common parenting issues such as overbearing parenting and blind comparisons, allowing viewers to connect emotionally while being entertained [2] - The campaign encourages user participation and discussion on social media, enhancing brand visibility and connection with the audience [2] Group 2: Product Strategy - New Hope Dairy focuses on the low-temperature dairy segment, offering products like "24-hour fresh milk" that promise superior nutritional benefits compared to regular milk [6] - The product lineup includes probiotic yogurt and natural, additive-free yogurt, catering to family health needs and emphasizing the concept of freshness [6] Group 3: Brand Positioning - The brand integrates its products into everyday family scenarios, reinforcing the message that New Hope Dairy products are essential for a fresh and healthy lifestyle [12][7] - Local dialects are incorporated into the film to enhance relatability and strengthen the brand's connection with regional consumers [13][17] - New Hope Dairy's strategy emphasizes localized marketing and product offerings, aligning with current trends towards personalized and community-focused business models [17][18]

当时间的刻度指向2026，一个崭新的五年征程即将启幕。 此刻，我们立足承前启后的交汇点，"十四五"即将圆满收官。回顾2025年，在多重压力之下，中国经济 再次走过了"很不平凡"的一年，并展现出强大韧性和活力，成就奠定坚实基础。 刚刚闭幕的中央经济工作会议深刻指出，做好明年经济工作，要"坚持稳中求进工作总基调"，在政策取 向上，"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效"，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效 提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好开局。 启新程，当乘势而上，更须砥砺前行。站在"十五五"新程待启的关键时点，如何看待2026年的经济形 势？2026年经济工作怎么干？新京报贝壳财经推出《看2026：十五五·启新程》专题报道，汇聚监管部 门、知名学者和领军企业家，解读政策脉络，洞察趋势变化。2026，我们携手出发。 对于企业而言，针对中央经济工作会议提出的持续扩大内需等议题会有哪些举措？2026年有哪些战略发 展目标？新京报贝壳财经记者就此采访了新希望（000876）集团常务副总裁、首席运营官李建雄。他告 诉记者，发展新质生产力是推动经济增长的关键动能，新希望集团会持续推动数字化 ...

当时间的刻度指向2026，一个崭新的五年征程即将启幕。 此刻，我们立足承前启后的交汇点，"十四五"即将圆满收官。回顾2025年，在多重压力之下，中国经济再次走过了"很不平凡"的一年，并展现出强大韧性和 活力，成就奠定坚实基础。 刚刚闭幕的中央经济工作会议深刻指出，做好明年经济工作，要"坚持稳中求进工作总基调"，在政策取向上，"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效"，着力稳就业、 稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好开局。 启新程，当乘势而上，更须砥砺前行。站在"十五五"新程待启的关键时点，如何看待2026年的经济形势？2026年经济工作怎么干？新京报贝壳财经推出《看 2026：十五五·启新程》专题报道，汇聚监管部门、知名学者和领军企业家，解读政策脉络，洞察趋势变化。2026，我们携手出发。 对于企业而言，针对中央经济工作会议提出的持续扩大内需等议题会有哪些举措？2026年有哪些战略发展目标？新京报贝壳财经记者就此采访了新希望集团 常务副总裁、首席运营官李建雄。他告诉记者，发展新质生产力是推动经济增长的关键动能，新希望集团会持续推动数字化转型，在创新与升级中找 ...

Core Insights - New Hope Group, founded in 1982, has evolved from traditional poultry and pig farming to become a major player in the agricultural sector, ranking in the 2024 China Top 500 Enterprises and the 2024 Fortune Global 500 [4] - The company is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, focusing on producing safer, higher-quality, and more distinctive products to meet changing consumer demands [4] - New Hope has implemented initiatives like the "Grain Saving Action" to optimize feed production, aiming to save approximately 300,000 tons of grain annually [4] - The company has developed a cold chain logistics platform that significantly improves efficiency, reducing delivery times from 4 hours to 10 minutes and cutting logistics costs by nearly 20% [6] Group 1: Company Development and Strategy - New Hope Group's growth strategy emphasizes adapting to new market conditions and consumer needs, moving away from merely increasing production capacity [4] - The company has successfully turned around its financial performance, reporting a net profit of 474 million yuan in 2024, a 90.05% increase year-on-year, despite a 27.27% decline in revenue [8] - The firm is focusing on technological innovation and efficiency improvements across its operations, including breeding, cold chain logistics, and product development [7] Group 2: Industry Trends and Challenges - The agricultural sector is experiencing a shift in dynamics, with factors such as inventory levels, raw material prices, and consumer behavior influencing market conditions [9] - New Hope is leveraging its extensive historical data and market insights to develop predictive models for industry cycles, aiming to enhance production planning [9] - The company recognizes the importance of maintaining resilience in the supply chain and is committed to fostering innovation to navigate industry challenges [7]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 23.52 RMB, corresponding to a 24x PE for 2026 [8]. Core Insights - The company is a pioneer in the low-temperature dairy sector with a nationwide layout, focusing on product innovation, channel expansion, milk source distribution, cold chain construction, and regional brand strength. The report is optimistic about the company's continuous focus on low-temperature dairy products and its proactive approach to developing new products that align with market tastes, penetrating lower-tier markets, and embracing emerging channels like Sam's Club [1][17]. Industry Overview - The low-temperature milk industry in China is accelerating its penetration, with a market size projected to reach 41.8 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 1.4% from 2022 to 2024. The penetration rate of low-temperature milk in the liquid milk sector is expected to rise to 12.1% [2][18]. - The competitive landscape is relatively fragmented, with major players like Yili and Mengniu holding a combined market share of 28% and 36% in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, respectively, which is lower than their shares in the ambient milk sector [2][18]. Company Strategy - The company has upgraded its "Three Fresh" strategy, focusing on the dual strengths of fresh milk and yogurt, aiming to develop billion-level products. The DTC model is expected to contribute significantly to growth, with a target of over 30% revenue share from DTC channels by 2027 [3][20]. - The company plans to enhance its product portfolio by leveraging its proprietary strain library and expanding into new product categories like low-temperature yogurt drinks, while also exploring international markets in Southeast Asia [4][21]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10% in scale and aims to double its net profit margin to over 7.8% by 2027. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 723.97 million RMB, 841.28 million RMB, and 953.46 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.84 RMB, 0.98 RMB, and 1.11 RMB [6][12][21].

Summary of the Conference Call for New Hope Dairy Company Overview - New Hope Dairy has been expanding its national presence and supply chain through continuous acquisitions of regional dairy companies such as Nanshan, Shuangxi, and Xiajin, as well as stakes in Modern Farming and Eurasia Group, laying a foundation for long-term development [2][3][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Management Stability**: The company is controlled by Liu Chang and Liu Yonghao, who collectively hold 79% of the shares. The management team, including Chairman Xi Gang and General Manager Zhu Chuan, is experienced and closely aligned with the company's interests [2][4] - **Financial Performance**: Despite facing revenue pressure due to weak demand and oversupply in the industry in 2024-2025, New Hope Dairy's net profit continues to grow significantly, indicating improved profitability and operational efficiency [2][6] - **Product Innovation**: The company is actively innovating its product line, with a focus on high-end iterations of existing products (e.g., 24-hour fresh milk) and new product launches (e.g., Hongrun light meal cup/bottle), maintaining double-digit growth in new product revenue [2][7] - **Market Potential**: The low-temperature fresh milk sector has significant growth potential, with a penetration rate of only 39% compared to 83% for ambient milk. The decline in raw milk costs is narrowing the price gap with ambient milk, creating opportunities for growth [2][8] Additional Important Insights - **Channel Development**: New Hope Dairy is enhancing its Direct to Consumer (DDC) channels, including home delivery and e-commerce, which are expected to account for 30% of sales by 2027, supporting low-temperature product sales [4][11] - **Supply Chain Management**: The company has a balanced and consumer-near milk source structure, with 30% from self-owned farms, 30% from joint ventures, and 10% from social farms, ensuring a stable supply of raw materials [13] - **Future Growth Strategy**: The company emphasizes differentiated competition and localized strategies, leveraging the strengths of its subsidiaries to drive growth. For instance, the Anhui subsidiary focuses on home delivery, while the Shandong subsidiary targets high-end supermarkets [14] - **Profitability Forecast**: Revenue is projected to grow by 5%, 6%, and 7% from 2025 to 2027, with improvements in gross margin and net profit margin driven by high-margin low-temperature products [15][16] Conclusion - New Hope Dairy is positioned for steady growth through strategic acquisitions, product innovation, and effective supply chain management, with a favorable outlook for profitability and market expansion in the low-temperature dairy segment [2][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the collaboration between New Hope Dairy and swimming champion Tang Qianting, emphasizing the integration of sports spirit with the brand's fresh nutrition philosophy [2][3][14] - Tang Qianting, a prominent figure in Chinese swimming, has achieved significant milestones, including winning a silver medal at the Paris Olympics and breaking 21 Asian records, which aligns with New Hope Dairy's commitment to excellence and innovation in the dairy industry [3][14] - New Hope Dairy's "fresh" strategy focuses on product quality and innovation, aiming to meet the evolving health and nutrition needs of consumers, thereby enhancing the overall value of the company [3][10][13] Group 2 - The company has launched a "New Five-Year Strategic Plan" in 2023, which emphasizes core business development, research innovation, and regional market penetration to strengthen its fresh product capabilities [3][10] - New Hope Dairy is recognized for its commitment to high-quality dairy products, with initiatives such as the "Quality Milk Project" and the establishment of a digital food safety management platform to ensure transparency from farm to table [13][14] - The partnership with Tang Qianting is seen as a strategic move to resonate with younger consumers, leveraging her influence to enhance brand recognition and appeal among the "fresh generation" [10][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 8.434 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.49%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 623 million yuan, up 31.48% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 647 million yuan, reflecting a 27.62% increase year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.908 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.42%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 226 million yuan, up 27.67% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 236 million yuan, an increase of 21.88% year-on-year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2025 improved by 1.57 percentage points to 7.39%, with a gross margin increase of 0.38 percentage points to 29.47%. The expense ratio decreased by 1.26 percentage points to 20.23% [5]. - For Q3 2025, the net profit margin rose by 1.42 percentage points to 7.78%, while the gross margin slightly decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 28.43%. The expense ratio also decreased by 1.46 percentage points to 19.12% [5]. Strategic Positioning - The company adheres to a strategy of regional deep cultivation and differentiated innovation, achieving alpha performance. It focuses on high-end fresh milk and active nutrition products, creating a competitive edge against leading dairy companies [6]. - The high-end product line caters to quality-sensitive consumers, while large-pack products meet cost-performance needs. The company strengthens its direct-to-consumer (DTC) supply chain system as a core competitive advantage [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 703 million yuan and 830 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21 and 18 times [6].

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy Industry (002946) reported a steady growth in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, driven by its "Fresh Cube Strategy" focusing on low-temperature products and innovation in technology and branding [1][2]. Financial Performance - Year-to-date revenue reached 8.434 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.49%, with Q3 revenue growing by 4.42% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 623 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.48% [1]. - The net profit margin improved by 1.63 percentage points, indicating enhanced operational and profitability capabilities [1]. Product Performance - The company's star product matrix showed strong performance, particularly the low-temperature yogurt brand "Huirun," which leveraged diverse technological enhancements to align with consumer trends [2]. - New product revenue maintained a double-digit percentage, reaching a new high for the year, showcasing the company's innovation capabilities [2]. - New Dairy has established a strategic partnership with the Norwegian Red Cow Breeding Association to launch the first domestic Norwegian Red Cow fresh milk, enhancing its differentiation at the upstream source [2]. Digital and Supply Chain Strategy - New Dairy is recognized as a pioneer in digital marketing and supply chain development within the low-temperature dairy sector, benefiting from digitalization [3]. - The company has implemented a "308" supply chain model, ensuring orders are placed three hours in advance, with products delivered to consumers by 8 AM [3]. - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels have shown robust growth, contributing to the company's competitive edge [3]. Brand Development - New Dairy has adopted a youthful communication style, utilizing live streaming and short videos to engage with younger consumers effectively [3]. - The company has successfully penetrated the social circles of young consumers through emotional marketing and cross-industry collaborations [3]. Industry Positioning - New Dairy's impressive performance is attributed to structural opportunities arising from industry adjustments and consumer transitions, alongside its long-term commitment to the low-temperature segment [3]. - The company has built a multi-dimensional competitive advantage in products, channels, and branding, positioning itself for high-quality development amidst a shift from rapid growth to value reconstruction in the industry [3].