在这一理念的指引下，新希望近年来动作不断。在饲料生产方面，提出"节粮行动"，通过优化育种、饲料配方和养殖方式，力争每年节约1%的粮食用量。 作为最大用粮企业之一，这一举措意义重大，每年可节省近30万吨粮食。在育种攻关领域，新希望同样成绩斐然。参与育种攻关的肉鸭种源做到了"比全球 任何品种都不差"；养猪场开启综合数字化试点，运用先进技术提升养殖效率；针对冷链物流的短板，积极布局，将"24小时鲜奶"成功推向全国市场。 "鲜战略"破局冷链物流崛起 从养鸡养猪起步到跻身世界500强，刘永好从未脱离农业本源，这位新希望集团董事长直言，要当好老农人，培育好新农人，把农业干好。 从传统起步夯实农牧根基 新希望集团的起点在1982年。那一年，刘永好从传统的养鸡、养鹌鹑、养猪做起，进入饲料行业，后又涉足食品领域。如今，新希望已成为农牧业企业巨 头，跻身2024中国企业500强、2024年《财富》世界500强。 4 2 2 2 a Bell W UT9/11-2 4 28 2 TICH ANTE TINDAN 11947 e 12 t 12:00 1 77 IEVER t 2017 XIVV t 2017 CTRAD A NOV ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 23.52 RMB, corresponding to a 24x PE for 2026 [8]. Core Insights - The company is a pioneer in the low-temperature dairy sector with a nationwide layout, focusing on product innovation, channel expansion, milk source distribution, cold chain construction, and regional brand strength. The report is optimistic about the company's continuous focus on low-temperature dairy products and its proactive approach to developing new products that align with market tastes, penetrating lower-tier markets, and embracing emerging channels like Sam's Club [1][17]. Industry Overview - The low-temperature milk industry in China is accelerating its penetration, with a market size projected to reach 41.8 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 1.4% from 2022 to 2024. The penetration rate of low-temperature milk in the liquid milk sector is expected to rise to 12.1% [2][18]. - The competitive landscape is relatively fragmented, with major players like Yili and Mengniu holding a combined market share of 28% and 36% in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, respectively, which is lower than their shares in the ambient milk sector [2][18]. Company Strategy - The company has upgraded its "Three Fresh" strategy, focusing on the dual strengths of fresh milk and yogurt, aiming to develop billion-level products. The DTC model is expected to contribute significantly to growth, with a target of over 30% revenue share from DTC channels by 2027 [3][20]. - The company plans to enhance its product portfolio by leveraging its proprietary strain library and expanding into new product categories like low-temperature yogurt drinks, while also exploring international markets in Southeast Asia [4][21]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10% in scale and aims to double its net profit margin to over 7.8% by 2027. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 723.97 million RMB, 841.28 million RMB, and 953.46 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.84 RMB, 0.98 RMB, and 1.11 RMB [6][12][21].

Summary of the Conference Call for New Hope Dairy Company Overview - New Hope Dairy has been expanding its national presence and supply chain through continuous acquisitions of regional dairy companies such as Nanshan, Shuangxi, and Xiajin, as well as stakes in Modern Farming and Eurasia Group, laying a foundation for long-term development [2][3][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Management Stability**: The company is controlled by Liu Chang and Liu Yonghao, who collectively hold 79% of the shares. The management team, including Chairman Xi Gang and General Manager Zhu Chuan, is experienced and closely aligned with the company's interests [2][4] - **Financial Performance**: Despite facing revenue pressure due to weak demand and oversupply in the industry in 2024-2025, New Hope Dairy's net profit continues to grow significantly, indicating improved profitability and operational efficiency [2][6] - **Product Innovation**: The company is actively innovating its product line, with a focus on high-end iterations of existing products (e.g., 24-hour fresh milk) and new product launches (e.g., Hongrun light meal cup/bottle), maintaining double-digit growth in new product revenue [2][7] - **Market Potential**: The low-temperature fresh milk sector has significant growth potential, with a penetration rate of only 39% compared to 83% for ambient milk. The decline in raw milk costs is narrowing the price gap with ambient milk, creating opportunities for growth [2][8] Additional Important Insights - **Channel Development**: New Hope Dairy is enhancing its Direct to Consumer (DDC) channels, including home delivery and e-commerce, which are expected to account for 30% of sales by 2027, supporting low-temperature product sales [4][11] - **Supply Chain Management**: The company has a balanced and consumer-near milk source structure, with 30% from self-owned farms, 30% from joint ventures, and 10% from social farms, ensuring a stable supply of raw materials [13] - **Future Growth Strategy**: The company emphasizes differentiated competition and localized strategies, leveraging the strengths of its subsidiaries to drive growth. For instance, the Anhui subsidiary focuses on home delivery, while the Shandong subsidiary targets high-end supermarkets [14] - **Profitability Forecast**: Revenue is projected to grow by 5%, 6%, and 7% from 2025 to 2027, with improvements in gross margin and net profit margin driven by high-margin low-temperature products [15][16] Conclusion - New Hope Dairy is positioned for steady growth through strategic acquisitions, product innovation, and effective supply chain management, with a favorable outlook for profitability and market expansion in the low-temperature dairy segment [2][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the collaboration between New Hope Dairy and swimming champion Tang Qianting, emphasizing the integration of sports spirit with the brand's fresh nutrition philosophy [2][3][14] - Tang Qianting, a prominent figure in Chinese swimming, has achieved significant milestones, including winning a silver medal at the Paris Olympics and breaking 21 Asian records, which aligns with New Hope Dairy's commitment to excellence and innovation in the dairy industry [3][14] - New Hope Dairy's "fresh" strategy focuses on product quality and innovation, aiming to meet the evolving health and nutrition needs of consumers, thereby enhancing the overall value of the company [3][10][13] Group 2 - The company has launched a "New Five-Year Strategic Plan" in 2023, which emphasizes core business development, research innovation, and regional market penetration to strengthen its fresh product capabilities [3][10] - New Hope Dairy is recognized for its commitment to high-quality dairy products, with initiatives such as the "Quality Milk Project" and the establishment of a digital food safety management platform to ensure transparency from farm to table [13][14] - The partnership with Tang Qianting is seen as a strategic move to resonate with younger consumers, leveraging her influence to enhance brand recognition and appeal among the "fresh generation" [10][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 8.434 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.49%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 623 million yuan, up 31.48% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 647 million yuan, reflecting a 27.62% increase year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.908 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.42%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 226 million yuan, up 27.67% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 236 million yuan, an increase of 21.88% year-on-year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2025 improved by 1.57 percentage points to 7.39%, with a gross margin increase of 0.38 percentage points to 29.47%. The expense ratio decreased by 1.26 percentage points to 20.23% [5]. - For Q3 2025, the net profit margin rose by 1.42 percentage points to 7.78%, while the gross margin slightly decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 28.43%. The expense ratio also decreased by 1.46 percentage points to 19.12% [5]. Strategic Positioning - The company adheres to a strategy of regional deep cultivation and differentiated innovation, achieving alpha performance. It focuses on high-end fresh milk and active nutrition products, creating a competitive edge against leading dairy companies [6]. - The high-end product line caters to quality-sensitive consumers, while large-pack products meet cost-performance needs. The company strengthens its direct-to-consumer (DTC) supply chain system as a core competitive advantage [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 703 million yuan and 830 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21 and 18 times [6].

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy Industry (002946) reported a steady growth in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, driven by its "Fresh Cube Strategy" focusing on low-temperature products and innovation in technology and branding [1][2]. Financial Performance - Year-to-date revenue reached 8.434 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.49%, with Q3 revenue growing by 4.42% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 623 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.48% [1]. - The net profit margin improved by 1.63 percentage points, indicating enhanced operational and profitability capabilities [1]. Product Performance - The company's star product matrix showed strong performance, particularly the low-temperature yogurt brand "Huirun," which leveraged diverse technological enhancements to align with consumer trends [2]. - New product revenue maintained a double-digit percentage, reaching a new high for the year, showcasing the company's innovation capabilities [2]. - New Dairy has established a strategic partnership with the Norwegian Red Cow Breeding Association to launch the first domestic Norwegian Red Cow fresh milk, enhancing its differentiation at the upstream source [2]. Digital and Supply Chain Strategy - New Dairy is recognized as a pioneer in digital marketing and supply chain development within the low-temperature dairy sector, benefiting from digitalization [3]. - The company has implemented a "308" supply chain model, ensuring orders are placed three hours in advance, with products delivered to consumers by 8 AM [3]. - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels have shown robust growth, contributing to the company's competitive edge [3]. Brand Development - New Dairy has adopted a youthful communication style, utilizing live streaming and short videos to engage with younger consumers effectively [3]. - The company has successfully penetrated the social circles of young consumers through emotional marketing and cross-industry collaborations [3]. Industry Positioning - New Dairy's impressive performance is attributed to structural opportunities arising from industry adjustments and consumer transitions, alongside its long-term commitment to the low-temperature segment [3]. - The company has built a multi-dimensional competitive advantage in products, channels, and branding, positioning itself for high-quality development amidst a shift from rapid growth to value reconstruction in the industry [3].

Summary of New Dairy Industry Conference Call Company Overview - New Dairy Industry has maintained positive growth in net profit attributable to shareholders over the past decade, with accelerated profit growth since the implementation of the five-year plan in 2023, indicating strong profitability and growth potential [2][3] Core Business and Market Position - The company's business is primarily focused on liquid milk, with low-temperature liquid milk accounting for over half of its sales. The DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) channel, including home delivery, convenience stores, and e-commerce, is continuously increasing, enhancing user loyalty and market share [2][4][5] - New Dairy Industry has expanded through acquisitions (e.g., Modern Dairy, Fuzhou Aoniu) and has shifted its strategy towards organic growth since 2023, focusing on improving profitability with support from its controlling shareholder, New Hope Group [2][6] Product Structure and Regional Layout - The product structure is heavily weighted towards low-temperature liquid milk, including fresh milk and yogurt. The company has subsidiaries in regions such as Southwest and East China, and it employs a strategy that combines national promotion with regional characteristics [4][9] - The company retains local legacy products while leveraging the DTC model to capture market share, with a growing membership system [4][10] Market Trends and Competitive Advantages - The low-temperature liquid milk market has shown significant growth despite pressures on the overall liquid milk market. The upgrade path includes improving physical and chemical indicators and better product concepts [7] - New Dairy Industry has established competitive advantages through its full-chain operations, enhancing gross margins and optimizing marketing strategies to capture consumer mindshare [8] Supply Chain and Management - The company ensures stable milk supply by holding shares in Modern Dairy, which provides a reliable national milk source. Additionally, its cold chain logistics service offers cost advantages [11] - Internal management employs a strict red-yellow light assessment mechanism for subsidiaries, focusing on profitability and product mix improvements [12] Future Profitability Expectations - The company is expected to achieve sustainable profit growth along the lines of its five-year strategic plan, with projected net profit corresponding to P/E ratios of 22 and 19 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation given an anticipated profit growth rate of over 25% [13]

Core Insights - New Dairy achieved revenue and net profit growth in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 5.526 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.01%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, up 33.76% [1] - The company maintained a sales net profit margin of 7.40%, an increase of over 1.72 percentage points year-on-year, and reduced its asset-liability ratio to 62.53%, down 2.08 percentage points from the beginning of the period [1] - The company’s commitment to its "fresh" core value and strategic iteration in response to market trends has driven stable growth, focusing on a three-pronged product strategy of "fresh sour drinks" [1][2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, New Dairy's net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 411 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.17% [1] - The total amount of interim and annual dividends for 2024 increased by 90% compared to the previous year [1] Product and Brand Strategy - New Dairy has multiple star brands such as "Asahi Weipin," "Xichang Sanmu," "Today's Fresh Milk Shop," "Huirun," and "Chuxin," which leverage their unique product and brand characteristics to enhance marketing innovation and user engagement [2] - The company is positioned as a "technology nutrition food enterprise," focusing on a three-part R&D system that includes a research institute, a global research network, and a technology transfer platform [2] Market Positioning and Future Outlook - 2025 is a pivotal year for New Dairy as it implements its new five-year strategic plan, emphasizing the "Fresh Cube Strategy" and the "fresh" value it offers to consumers [2] - The company recognizes the importance of safety, nutrition, taste, and emotional value to consumers, aiming to strengthen its core competitiveness through product innovation, technological advancements, and operational capabilities [2]