"十五五" 规划系列研究 2026 年 01 月 07 日 相关研究 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 hougn@swsresearch.com 联系人 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com "新" 新基建, 地方如何适度超前? 华北地区因承担国家数据枢纽功能、叠加能源转型重任,布局聚焦国家数据枢纽建设与能源转 型深度融合。北京依托核心城市定位，布局国家数据管理中心、资源中心与交易中心；河北承 接京津冀算力枢纽分工；山西、内蒙古依托能源优势，突出绿色算力与能源转型协同发展。 华东、华南地区依托低空经济潜力突出、水运体系发达的区域禀赋,重点布局低空基建、推进 水运智慧化改造。 广东以专栏形式明确推进"全省低空飞行基建覆盖 + 低空飞行器制造产业培 育+低空飞行常态化开展"；江西、福建及海南依托沿海沿江水运优势，推进水运智慧化升级。 面部及东北地区依托算力资源禀赋,结合边境通信保障需求,聚 ...

宏 观 研 究 "十五五"规划系列研究 相关研究 - 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 houqn@swsresearch.com 联系人 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 07 日 "新"新基建，地方如何适度超前？ ——"十五五"规划研究系列之五 "十五五"建议稿首提"适度超前新型基础设施建设"。地方"十五五"规划建议中如何落实 这一要求，落实路径有何共性、地方又如何"因地制宜"布局？本文分析，可供参考。 "十五五"建议稿：适度超前新基建如何理解？新基建已逐渐成为广义基建的核心。 "十五五"建议提出"适度超前建设"，要求"推进信息通信网络、全国一体化算力网、重大 科技基础设施等建设和集约高效利用，推进传统基础设施更新和数智化改造"。对比"十四五" 规划和 2035 年远景目标建议，其覆盖范围显著拓宽，全面涵盖通信网络、数据与算力各领域。 新基建内涵快速拓展， ...

12月19日，据"安徽发布"公众号，中共安徽省委关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议 发布，其中提出，建设现代化基础设施体系。适度超前布局新型基础设施，加快信息通信网络、低空智 能网联、路面无人驾驶基础设施等建设，深入推进IPv6规模部署和应用创新，推进传统基础设施更新和 数智化改造。 ...

Economic Outlook - The difficulty of achieving the annual economic growth target has decreased, reducing the necessity for macro policy intensification within the year[1] - Expanding domestic demand remains crucial for stabilizing the economy, with service consumption expected to be a core driver of consumption growth[1] Consumption Trends - In October, the weighted year-on-year growth rate of investment, retail, and exports was -4.29%, indicating a decline in demand momentum[10] - Retail sales growth continued to weaken, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% in October, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[13] - Service consumption is outpacing goods consumption, with education, culture, and entertainment services growing by 10.4% and transportation and communication services by 7.73% in September[22] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.7% from January to October, with real estate investment down by 14.7%[25] - Infrastructure investment has turned negative for the first time this year, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.1%[25] - New infrastructure investment opportunities are highlighted, particularly in information communication networks and major technological infrastructure[26] Policy Recommendations - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy to support credit growth for the upcoming year[35] - Policies should focus on stabilizing the real estate market to facilitate a smooth industry transition, which is critical for short-term economic growth[34]

Core Viewpoint - The development of new-type infrastructure is essential for achieving significant breakthroughs in the new quality productivity during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, as highlighted in the Central Committee's suggestions for national economic and social development [1][2][5]. Infrastructure Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasized accelerating the construction of new-type infrastructure, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests "moderately ahead" construction to align with the urgent needs of economic transformation and upgraded growth momentum [2][6]. - The focus is on building emerging pillar industries and accelerating the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy and low-altitude economy, which rely heavily on new-type infrastructure like computing power and communication networks [2][8]. Strategic Planning - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to create a modern infrastructure system, promoting the efficient utilization of information communication networks, integrated computing power networks, and major scientific and technological infrastructures [5][10]. - The government emphasizes the need for a balanced approach in infrastructure investment, ensuring alignment with industry demands and technological trends while avoiding blind expansion and resource waste [11]. Economic Integration - The integration of technology, industry, and economy is crucial, with new-type infrastructure expected to support technological innovation and enable digital transformation across various sectors [9][10]. - The suggestions outline four key tasks: optimizing traditional industries, nurturing emerging industries, promoting high-quality service development, and constructing a modern infrastructure system [9]. Future Outlook - The focus on "moderately ahead" infrastructure construction is seen as a way to gain a competitive edge in global technology and to guide the transformation of traditional industries, enhancing the resilience of industrial chains [8][10]. - The government aims to ensure that advanced manufacturing and modern service industries can achieve high-quality development in a supportive hardware environment, ultimately contributing to the realization of socialist modernization by 2035 [10].

Core Points - The article discusses the release of the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, emphasizing the construction of a modern infrastructure system [1] Group 1: Infrastructure Development - The plan calls for strengthening the overall planning of infrastructure, optimizing layout and structure, promoting integration, and enhancing safety resilience and operational sustainability [1] - It advocates for appropriately advanced construction of new-type infrastructure, including information communication networks, a national integrated computing network, and major scientific and technological infrastructure [1] - The plan emphasizes the need for updating traditional infrastructure and implementing digital transformation [1] Group 2: Transportation and Energy - The proposal includes improving the modern comprehensive transportation system, enhancing cross-regional planning, and ensuring connectivity across different transportation modes [1] - It highlights the importance of strengthening coverage and accessibility in underdeveloped areas [1] - The plan also focuses on optimizing the layout of energy backbone channels and accelerating the construction of new energy infrastructure [1] Group 3: Water Management and Urban Infrastructure - There is a push to accelerate the construction of a modern water network to enhance flood disaster prevention, water resource allocation, and urban-rural water supply security [1] - The plan promotes the development of public infrastructure that can be used for both daily and emergency purposes in urban areas [1]