"提前下达新增地方政府债务限额为2026年地方债早发行、早使用提供支撑。"刘蓉认为，一方面，有助 于"十五五"开局项目储备衔接，各地提前编制预算、做好项目前期工作，保障一季度项目开工与资金需 求，尽快形成实物工作量。另一方面，明确积极财政导向，有利于稳定市场对投资与资金投放的预期。 根据企业预警通数据，截至1月8日，已有北京、河北、山西等27地披露一季度发债计划，总规模约2万 亿元。 ● 本报记者 熊彦莎 1月8日，宁波发行253.72亿元地方债。此前的1月5日，山东发行723.81亿元地方债，成为今年首个发行 地方债的省份。 "'十五五'开局之际，项目储备充足，地方债早发行有助于实现早用款、早见效。"西南财经大学财政税 务学院教授刘蓉在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，目前已披露的新增专项债重点投向新基建、城市更 新等领域，有利于扩大有效投资、提振内需，以政府投资撬动民间投资，巩固经济回升向好态势，助力 一季度经济平稳开局。 延续靠前发力节奏 财政部此前表示，将尽早提前下达2026年新增地方政府债务限额，便于各地做好与2026年预算编制的衔 接，支持重点项目2026年一季度建设资金需求。 "地方债延续靠前发力节 ...

"十五五"建议稿首提"适度超前新型基础设施建设"。地方"十五五"规划建议中如何落实这一要求，落实 路径有何共性、地方又如何"因地制宜"布局？本文分析，可供参考。 "十五五"建议稿：适度超前新基建如何理解？新基建已逐渐成为广义基建的核心。 "十五五"建议提出"适度超前建设"，要求"推进信息通信网络、全国一体化算力网、重大科技基础设施等 建设和集约高效利用，推进传统基础设施更新和数智化改造"。 对比"十四五"规划和2035年远景目标建 议，其覆盖范围显著拓宽，全面涵盖通信网络、数据与算力各领域。 新基建内涵快速拓展，核心原因在于经济数字化转型推动。 此前发改委已明确其涵盖信息、融合、创新 三类基础设施，持续拓展内涵。新基建自2018年中央经济工作会议首次提出，2019年拓展领域形成"七大 领域"共识，2020年国家发改委官方定型为"信息—融合—创新"三大板块，核心逻辑从单一技术方向走向 系统布局，逐步强化公共服务属性。 "十四五"时期，基建投资涌现"新三样"，新基建是其核心。2019年至2025年11月，广义基建中电力热 力、互联网软件、仓储物流投资占比分别提升10.4、5.0、4.1个百分点， 直观体现新基建的 ...

"十五五" 规划系列研究 2026 年 01 月 07 日 相关研究 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 hougn@swsresearch.com 联系人 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com "新" 新基建, 地方如何适度超前? 华北地区因承担国家数据枢纽功能、叠加能源转型重任,布局聚焦国家数据枢纽建设与能源转 型深度融合。北京依托核心城市定位，布局国家数据管理中心、资源中心与交易中心；河北承 接京津冀算力枢纽分工；山西、内蒙古依托能源优势，突出绿色算力与能源转型协同发展。 华东、华南地区依托低空经济潜力突出、水运体系发达的区域禀赋,重点布局低空基建、推进 水运智慧化改造。 广东以专栏形式明确推进"全省低空飞行基建覆盖 + 低空飞行器制造产业培 育+低空飞行常态化开展"；江西、福建及海南依托沿海沿江水运优势，推进水运智慧化升级。 面部及东北地区依托算力资源禀赋,结合边境通信保障需求,聚 ...

宏 观 研 究 "十五五"规划系列研究 相关研究 - 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 houqn@swsresearch.com 联系人 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 07 日 "新"新基建，地方如何适度超前？ ——"十五五"规划研究系列之五 "十五五"建议稿首提"适度超前新型基础设施建设"。地方"十五五"规划建议中如何落实 这一要求，落实路径有何共性、地方又如何"因地制宜"布局？本文分析，可供参考。 "十五五"建议稿：适度超前新基建如何理解？新基建已逐渐成为广义基建的核心。 "十五五"建议提出"适度超前建设"，要求"推进信息通信网络、全国一体化算力网、重大 科技基础设施等建设和集约高效利用，推进传统基础设施更新和数智化改造"。对比"十四五" 规划和 2035 年远景目标建议，其覆盖范围显著拓宽，全面涵盖通信网络、数据与算力各领域。 新基建内涵快速拓展， ...

当前，本人所管理的消费主题类基金，将始终坚持追求稳健的投资理念。在具体配置上，我们倾向于在 各个细分消费领域精选具备估值优势与持续成长性的优质个股。尽管当前整体消费板块仍面临压力，但 我们观察到部分细分行业依然呈现出较好的结构性机会，例如科技领域的消费电子、可选消费中的家 电，以及汽车零部件等方向。其中，尤其值得关注的是那些已具备海外布局能力、与国内市场周期关联 度较低、增长相对稳健且估值较合理的优秀企业。这类资产并非市场短期追逐的热点，反而更符合我们 长期配置的定位与要求。 另外，在金饰品行业中，除少数新兴品牌被纳入新消费范畴外，多数黄金下游零售企业受金价上涨影 响，增速表现相对平缓甚至出现负增长，其估值也处于较为合理区间。相比上游的金矿企业，我们认为 当前该板块具备较强的长期配置吸引力。此外，可选消费中仍有相当比例属于地产链下游领域，例如消 费建材类公司。尽管受到房地产行业下行影响，但这类企业估值已调整至相对合理水平，且仍保持一定 增长韧性，同样具备较好的长期布局价值。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 2026年市场预计可能将延续2024年以来的运行逻辑，财政与货币政策或仍将成为驱动市场的主导力量， ...

Core Insights - Jiang Village Academy, established in the historical context of Kaixian Gong Village, aims to explore rural revitalization and urban-rural integration through practical training and research [1][2][3] Group 1: Academy Development - Jiang Village Academy has conducted 28 training sessions with over 3,142 participants in just two months since its opening [1][4] - The academy features a "1+8+N" curriculum structure, focusing on sociology, rural revitalization, and other relevant topics, with a total building area of 13,000 square meters [3][4] - The academy has attracted various participants, including government officials, scholars, and students, indicating its broad appeal and relevance [4][5] Group 2: Economic Transformation - Kaixian Gong Village has undergone significant economic transformation, moving from a "weak economic village" to a "provincial-level characteristic rural village" with projected tourism revenue exceeding 100 million yuan by 2024 [3][5] - The village's collective income has increased significantly, with average collective income per village now exceeding 6 million yuan, driven by the development of secondary and tertiary industries [6][7] - The local government has invested 200 million yuan in pollution control and rural beautification, which has facilitated this transformation [3][6] Group 3: Urban-Rural Integration - The integration of urban and rural areas is emphasized, with urban development providing the necessary support for rural revitalization [6][7] - The "1020" plan aims to allocate industrial land to rural areas, enhancing their economic capacity and generating additional income through industrial leasing [6][7] - The academy serves as a platform for dialogue between urban and rural stakeholders, fostering mutual understanding and collaboration [7][8] Group 4: Social and Cultural Impact - The academy's activities are designed to address contemporary issues in rural development, with a focus on understanding the socio-economic dynamics of rural communities [8][11] - Participants have expressed a desire to learn from the village's transformation, highlighting the importance of integrating traditional knowledge with modern practices [8][11] - The academy aims to contribute to the broader narrative of rural revitalization in China, positioning itself as a thought leader in this field [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent economic work conference in China, highlighting the focus on domestic demand and structural reforms to stimulate economic growth, with an optimistic outlook for the economy in the coming years [3][5]. Economic Growth Predictions - The World Bank has adjusted its forecast for China's economic growth, predicting a rate of 4.9% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, both up by 0.4 percentage points from previous estimates [3]. - The emphasis on domestic demand as a driver of growth aligns with the signals from the economic work conference, which prioritizes building a strong domestic market [5]. Trade Performance - China achieved a record trade surplus of $1 trillion in the first 11 months of the year, despite a significant drop in exports to the U.S. by 18.3% [6][8]. - Exports to Europe, Southeast Asia, and Africa increased by 8.9%, 14.6%, and 27.2% respectively, indicating a successful shift in export structure [8]. - The systematic upgrade of China's manufacturing capabilities has been a key driver of this export growth, contributing nearly 45% to the increase in exports over the past five years [10]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The economic work conference emphasized a "loose monetary policy," focusing on lowering interest rates and easing credit conditions to stimulate economic recovery [12]. - A more proactive fiscal policy is expected, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% for 2026, maintaining the same level as in 2025 [15]. - The conference highlighted the importance of fiscal policy in supporting economic recovery, particularly in addressing local government financial challenges and funding infrastructure projects [15][17]. Economic Indicators and Consumer Impact - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, indicating a potential economic recovery and signaling a possible turning point for the economy [21]. - The anticipated easing of mortgage rates due to loose monetary policy may alleviate repayment pressures for homebuyers, while consumer spending could benefit from reduced restrictions and potential subsidies [21][23]. - Support for new infrastructure, renewable energy, and high-end manufacturing is expected to create numerous skilled job opportunities, enhancing stability for small and medium enterprises [23].

Core Insights - The global economy is seeking a new balance amid trade easing and policy stimulus, with significant market rebounds observed in Q3 2025 driven by improved US-China trade relations, optimism in artificial intelligence, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2][5]. Market Performance - Global stock markets saw a notable rebound in Q3 2025, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets, particularly in Asia, where China (+20.8%), Taiwan (+14.7%), South Korea (+12.8%), and Thailand (+17.6%) led the gains. In contrast, India experienced a decline of 6.6% due to valuation pressures and foreign capital outflows [5][6]. - The fixed income market showed volatility but overall upward movement, with US Treasury yields declining across the board, particularly the 10-year yield which fell by 8 basis points to 4.16%. Emerging market dollar bonds performed strongly, achieving a 4.8% increase [6][11]. - The commodity market saw significant gains in gold (+16.4%) and precious metals (+17.4%), while energy and agricultural sectors lagged [11]. Economic Outlook - Future months may see a slowdown in global economic growth, but policy stimulus is expected to drive a rebound in early 2026. The US economy may weaken due to stagnant job growth and rising tariff costs, although investments in new infrastructure and technology sectors provide some support [2][14]. - China's recent credit growth slowdown indicates a need for stronger domestic demand, but upcoming policy measures may inject new momentum into the economy. The government is expected to set a GDP growth target of at least 4.5% for the next year [15][34]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue cutting rates, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in October and another in December. Other major central banks are anticipated to follow suit with easing measures [3][20]. - Asian countries are implementing new rounds of stimulus to counter economic pressures, with China expanding credit support, India reforming tax policies, and Indonesia providing cash transfers to households [32][33]. Inflation Trends - Inflation patterns are diverging globally, with the US expected to see a gradual rise in inflation to around 3.1%-3.2% due to tariff effects, while many Asian economies maintain lower inflation levels, allowing for more room for monetary easing [2][16]. - In China, inflation is projected to remain low, while Japan and India are managing inflation within target ranges through policy adjustments [16][34].

Group 1 - The core idea of the news is the emphasis on "appropriate advanced construction" of new infrastructure during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, which aims to support high-quality development and address structural contradictions in existing infrastructure [2][3][5]. - New infrastructure includes advancements in information technology, digital economy, and traditional infrastructure transformation, which are crucial for high-quality development [2][4]. - The government is expected to play a leading role in investing in new infrastructure to enhance public services and promote urbanization and common prosperity [3][4]. Group 2 - The concept of "appropriate advanced" construction reflects the need to balance infrastructure supply with economic demand, ensuring that development aligns with current and future needs [5][6]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on building advanced computing infrastructure to meet the growing demand for digital services, with an emphasis on high efficiency and green technology [6][7]. - Collaboration among government, society, and the market is essential for the successful implementation of new infrastructure projects, encouraging private investment and innovation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "appropriate advanced construction" of new infrastructure during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans in China, highlighting its role in supporting high-quality development and addressing structural contradictions in existing infrastructure [1][2][3]. Group 1: New Infrastructure Development - New infrastructure includes information, integration, and innovation facilities that support digital economy development and traditional infrastructure upgrades [2][3]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan explicitly mentions "appropriate advanced" construction of new infrastructure, marking a significant shift in policy direction [2][3]. - The construction of new infrastructure is seen as essential for promoting new urbanization and achieving common prosperity [3][4]. Group 2: Implementation Principles - The principle of "appropriate advanced" construction requires balancing supply and demand, current and long-term needs, and efficiency and quality [5][6]. - The government is expected to lead the investment in new infrastructure to enhance public services and address existing gaps [3][4][5]. - The focus should be on integrating traditional and new infrastructure while ensuring that development aligns with economic and social needs [5][6]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - Companies are increasingly interested in the opportunities presented by new infrastructure, particularly in areas like computing and digital solutions [7][8]. - The development of advanced computing infrastructure is seen as a key area for growth, with companies aiming to leverage this for competitive advantage [7][8]. - The construction of clean energy facilities, such as nuclear power plants, is highlighted as a critical component of new infrastructure development [8]. Group 4: Collaborative Efforts - Successful implementation of new infrastructure requires collaboration among government, society, and the market to stimulate private investment and innovation [9]. - Encouraging enterprises to take the lead in research and development is crucial for integrating new infrastructure with industry needs [9].