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债市“跌麻了”,基金经理直言“压力大”
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-08-19 22:53
Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant pressure and adjustments, contrasting with the strong performance of the equity market, leading to concerns among bond fund managers about redemption pressures and declining net asset values [1][3][6]. Market Performance - On August 18, the bond market faced its worst day in August, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising by 5 basis points and 6 basis points respectively, closing at 1.79% and 2.06% [1]. - The average performance of pure bond funds was negative, with mid-to-long-term pure bond funds averaging -0.19% and short-term bond funds averaging -0.03% for the week [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The bond market is under pressure due to increased risk appetite in the equity market, leading to a "stock-bond seesaw" effect, where funds are being diverted from bonds to equities [3][4]. - The current bond market adjustment is driven more by expectations rather than changes in the funding environment, with a potential shift from deflation to mild inflation anticipated [3][4]. Fund Manager Strategies - Fund managers are adopting strategies such as shortening duration and adjusting portfolio structures to cope with the steepening yield curve [8][9]. - There is a consensus among fund managers that the bond market does not have the foundation for a long-term decline, with continued demand from institutional clients and a stable funding environment [2][8]. Investor Sentiment - Personal investors are expressing mixed feelings, with some feeling pessimistic about the bond market while others see potential buying opportunities [8][10]. - Fund managers suggest that investors consider extending their holding periods and maintaining a balanced approach to their portfolios, especially during market adjustments [10][11].
债市“跌麻了”!基金经理直言“压力大”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 16:24
Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant adjustments, with fund managers expressing concerns about pressure and actively shortening duration and adjusting structures to cope with future steepening of the yield curve [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market faced its worst day in August on August 18, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising by 5 basis points (BP) and 6 BP respectively, closing at 1.79% and 2.06% [1]. - The bond market's sentiment has been negatively impacted despite the equity market reaching new highs, leading to discussions among investors about significant losses [1][4]. - The adjustment in the bond market is attributed to multiple factors, including a shift in market risk appetite and the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, as the equity market continues to rise [4][5]. Group 2: Fund Manager Strategies - Fund managers are adopting strategies to shorten duration and adjust their portfolios in response to market changes, indicating a proactive approach to managing risks [2][8]. - The average performance of pure bond funds has been poor, with mid-to-long-term pure bond funds showing an average return of -0.19% and short-term bond funds at -0.03% [5][6]. - Fund managers are optimistic that the bond market does not have the foundation for a long-term decline, citing ongoing demand from institutional clients and stable funding conditions [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain a range-bound operation, with fund managers suggesting a "short long, long short" strategy to navigate the current environment [8][9]. - There is a consensus that the bond market lacks significant positive catalysts in the short term, and it may continue to exhibit volatility [9]. - Fund managers recommend that investors consider credit bond funds for potential returns above 2% over the next year, while also suggesting a balanced approach to portfolio allocation between stocks and bonds [11][12].
债市“跌麻了”!基金经理直言“压力大”
中国基金报· 2025-08-19 16:12
Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant adjustments, with fund managers expressing concerns about pressure and actively shortening duration and adjusting structures to cope with future steepening of the yield curve [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market faced a severe downturn on August 18, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising by 5 basis points and 6 basis points respectively, closing at 1.79% and 2.06% [1]. - Despite a brief recovery earlier in August, the bond market has been under pressure again due to increased market risk appetite, with the 10-year government bond yield surpassing the high point from July [1][4]. Group 2: Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers are facing redemption pressures, particularly in bond funds, but they believe that the bond market does not have a foundation for a long-term decline, as the 10-year government bond yield of 1.8% reflects current expectations [2][9]. - The performance of pure bond funds has been poor, with average returns for medium to long-term pure bond funds at -0.19% and short bond funds at -0.03% [7]. Group 3: Factors Influencing the Bond Market - The bond market's adjustment is driven more by expectations rather than changes in the funding environment, with a potential shift from deflation to a mild inflation scenario impacting long-term bonds negatively [4][5]. - There is a notable lack of configuration funds from small and medium-sized banks, with a significant decrease in bond investment balances reported [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategies - Fund managers are adjusting their strategies to focus on shorter durations and are maintaining a neutral to high duration stance while reducing exposure to long-term rates [9]. - The overall sentiment is that while the bond market may not see significant positive catalysts in the short term, it remains within a range of support and resistance, with a cautious approach recommended [9]. Group 5: Recommendations for Investors - Fund managers suggest that credit bond funds may yield over 2% in the coming year, and investors should consider gradually increasing their exposure to these funds [11]. - For individual investors, maintaining a long-term perspective and potentially increasing allocations during market adjustments is advised, while also considering a balanced portfolio with some equity exposure [11].