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一买就跌、一卖就涨?为什么市场总在针对我?
雪球· 2025-09-23 13:01
Core Viewpoint - The recent rise of A-shares above 3800 points presents an opportunity for investors to reassess their portfolios, emphasizing the importance of a diversified asset allocation strategy to navigate market volatility and potential downturns [4][6]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Fund Performance - Despite the current bullish market sentiment and many funds reaching historical highs, a significant number of investors redeemed their holdings before the market's upswing, leading to missed opportunities [6]. - Data indicates that from 2022 to 2024, the net subscription scale of equity funds has continuously shrunk, with net redemptions peaking in the first quarter and fourth quarter of 2024 [6]. Group 2: Volatility and Historical Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has a compound annual growth rate of 11.6% since its inception in 1990, but it also has an annualized volatility of 43.71%, which is significantly higher than many global indices [10][11]. - Since 2014, the annual maximum drawdown for the CSI 300 and equity fund indices has exceeded 15% in about 60% of the years, highlighting the challenges of long-term holding for domestic investors [12]. Group 3: Timing Strategies and Their Challenges - The desire to time the market is common among investors, but the reality often leads to missed opportunities, as evidenced by the significant drop in annualized returns when missing the best-performing days [16][18]. - From 2014 to the present, maintaining a position in equity funds yields an average annual return of around 15%, but missing the top-performing days drastically reduces this return [16][18]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategies - Given the high volatility of the A-share market, a diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended to mitigate risks and enhance returns [22]. - Different asset classes exhibit varying risk-return characteristics, and combining low or negatively correlated assets can help reduce overall portfolio volatility [22][24]. Group 5: Simulation of Asset Allocation - Simulations show that adjusting the asset allocation to include dividend stocks and global indices can lead to smoother net value curves and reduced drawdowns during market downturns [30][32]. - Incorporating bonds into the asset mix further stabilizes the portfolio, increasing the likelihood of maintaining positions during market fluctuations [35][37]. Group 6: Importance of Diversification - Diversification in asset allocation is emphasized as a crucial strategy for investors, with notable figures in finance advocating for a mix of uncorrelated return streams to enhance portfolio performance [38].
资本市场指数化投资增添“新动能” 债券指数加速扩容 产品矩阵持续丰富
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-08-13 16:52
Group 1 - Shenzhen Stock Exchange's subsidiary announced the launch of the Shenzhen AAA State-Owned Enterprise Credit Bond Index and the Shenzhen AAA Private Enterprise Credit Bond Index on August 15, aimed at reflecting the performance of high-grade credit bonds in the Shenzhen market [1] - The launch of these indices responds to the China Securities Regulatory Commission's action plan to promote high-quality development of index investment in the capital market, emphasizing the need to enrich bond ETF products to meet low-risk investment demands [1][2] - Experts believe that these indices will enhance the bond index system, provide targeted investment references for investors, and improve the capital market ecosystem, attracting more funds into high-grade credit bonds [1][4] Group 2 - The bond index supply has been continuously optimized, with a total of 207 bond indices launched this year, representing a 39.86% increase compared to the same period last year, with over 60% being credit bond-related indices [2] - The number of bond ETFs has also significantly increased, with 39 bond ETF products available as of August 13, 2023, of which 18 were launched this year, accounting for 46.15% of the total [2][3] - The introduction of new categories of bond ETFs, such as the first market-making credit bond ETF and the first Sci-Tech Innovation bond ETF, broadens investor choices and enhances the role of bond ETFs in serving the real economy [3][4] Group 3 - The expansion of bond indices and ETFs injects new momentum into the capital market and supports the high-quality development of the real economy, making market operations more transparent and efficient [4][5] - The growth of bond ETFs, which surpassed 528.82 billion yuan, demonstrates an accelerated increase in market activity and liquidity, providing diverse financing channels for the real economy [5] - The development of bond ETFs is favored by institutions like bank wealth management, allowing funds to flow more effectively into the real economy amid volatility in equity assets [5]
[6月25日]指数估值数据(大盘上涨回到4.9星;个人养老金账户取钱要收税,还要开通么)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-06-25 14:01
Market Overview - The market continues to rise, returning to a rating of 4.9 stars [1] - Both large, medium, and small-cap stocks are up, with the CSI 500 and other small-cap stocks showing slightly higher gains [2] - Value styles such as dividends have seen slight increases, while growth styles have risen significantly [3] - The securities index has experienced a substantial increase, with historical patterns indicating that after a rapid rise, there may be a prolonged period of decline [3] - The Hong Kong stock market has also seen overall gains, particularly in technology stocks [4][5] Personal Pension Accounts - Recent news indicates that personal pension accounts will incur a 3% tax on both principal and earnings upon withdrawal, raising questions about their necessity [7] - The concept of tax deferral for personal pension accounts was previously discussed, emphasizing that it is not a complete cancellation of benefits [9] - Despite the tax implications, personal pension accounts still hold value for many investors [10] Case Studies on Personal Pension Accounts - Example of an individual with a monthly salary of 5,000 yuan shows that opening a personal pension account may not be necessary if they do not exceed the tax threshold [11][16] - A higher-income individual, earning 50,000 yuan monthly, benefits significantly from a personal pension account, even without making investments, due to the tax rate difference [21][26] - Another example illustrates that a younger individual with a 30,000 yuan salary can benefit from investing in index funds within their personal pension account for long-term growth [28][30] Recommendations for Personal Pension Accounts - The necessity of opening a personal pension account is minimal for those with a monthly income around 10,000 yuan or below [36] - Individuals earning between 15,000 to 20,000 yuan or more should consider opening an account, especially if they are closer to retirement [37] - Those already retired will not benefit from personal pension accounts [37] New Features and Tools - A new feature in the "Today Few Stars" mini-program has been launched, allowing users to access an ETF valuation table [38][39] - The program aims to help investors identify undervalued ETFs and track real-time valuation data [42][46]