本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 港股与全球资金流动：南下资金流入减少，外资边际流入发达市场。 本期恒生指数收涨 2.8 % ，全球主 要市场多数上涨，印尼综指（ +3.8% ）涨幅居前。资金维度： 1 ）南下资金单周净买入下降至 214.6 亿元，处 2022 年以来 76% 分位。本期（截至 07/18 ）外资流入港股 0.3 亿美元。 2 ）本期（截至 07/16 ）发达市场主动 / 被动资金净流动 -35.1 亿 /70.8 亿美元，新兴市场主动 / 被动资金净流动 -8.5/17.2 亿美元。仅外资口径看，本期全球外资主要流入发达市场，其中美国（ +30.2 亿美元）与日 本（ +11.6 亿美元）居前。含各国内资的全球资金整体流动看，美国 / 韩国流入居前，美股工业 / ...

以下文章来源于府库 ，作者府库 府库 . 规划投资理财，温暖幸福生活 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 府库 从2014年至今的历史行情中，红利类资产呈现出低波动、稳步上涨的特征，走势更为平滑。相比之下，成长类资产如创业板则涨跌剧烈，走势陡 峭起伏，表现更依赖市场情绪与主题炒作。沪深300与偏股基金处于中间状态，既具一定上行弹性，也承受较大波动，风格更偏均衡。 我们把这段历史，拆分成8个阶段，看看在不同的行情下，红利类资产与其他资产的走势对比情况。 在2014-2015年牛市初期（2014/3/31–2015/6/12），流动性极度宽松、杠杆资金涌入推动了全面上涨。红利指数上涨177%，得益于大盘蓝筹行情取 得亮眼收益；但随着杠杆催化的投机升温，成长股全面爆发，创业板指上涨194%，一骑绝尘。偏股基金亦大幅上涨153%，沪深300上涨149%。 红利类资产并没有错过这轮牛市行情，略跑输于成长性更好的创业板，表现也是非常不错的。 2015年股灾阶段（2015/6/15–2016/1/27），市场陷入系统性去杠杆，恐慌情绪主导行情，所有指数普遍暴跌。红利 ...

——投资者微观行为洞察手册·7 月第 1 期 本报告导读： 本期市场交易热度小幅回落，融资资金与外资流入明显，ETF 资金流出则边际上升。 南下资金流入略有回落。全球外资回流各国股票市场，中美股市流入规模居前。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.07 策 略 研 究 融资资金大幅净买入，全球外资回流中美股市 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) | | 021-38676666 | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 郭胤含(分析师) | | | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880524100001 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880524080006 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 A 股 策 略 观 察 [Table_Summary] 市场定价状态：市场交易热度小幅回落。1）市场情绪（下降）：本 期国泰海通资金流入强度指数下降，市场交易热度小幅回落，全 A 日均成交额由 1.5 万亿回落至 1. ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in the public fund industry from "scale" to "return" focus, suggesting a positive outlook for the industry in the medium to long term [1][11]. Core Insights - The recent regulatory changes are expected to lead to a reallocation of public fund investments towards underweighted sectors, particularly in the financial and consumer goods industries, which may enhance overall market performance [4][44]. - The report highlights that the public fund industry is likely to evolve towards a model that closely tracks benchmark indices, with a significant portion of assets allocated to large-cap stocks [3][17]. - The anticipated increase in passive investment strategies is expected to drive up the valuation of benchmark indices like the CSI 300, with a projected increase of 6.8% [4][43]. Summary by Sections Short-term Market Dynamics - Market volatility is attributed to speculative trading based on expectations of increased public fund allocations, particularly in the financial sector [2][16]. - The report notes that the adjustment of fund portfolios will likely be gradual rather than abrupt, as detailed guidelines on performance benchmarks are still pending [2][16]. Medium to Long-term Changes in Fund Behavior - From a product perspective, actively managed equity funds are expected to transition towards a "quasi-index" model, with 60%-80% of assets closely tracking benchmark indices [3][17]. - Larger funds are more inclined to adopt conservative strategies that align closely with benchmarks to ensure stable returns, reflecting the need to meet investor expectations [3][25]. Impact of Regulatory Changes on Market Ecology - The report draws parallels between the current public fund adjustments and the influx of foreign capital in 2016-2017, noting a similar "signaling effect" but emphasizing the current lack of strong fundamental support for the affected sectors [4][26]. - The anticipated shift towards benchmark alignment is expected to elevate the valuation premiums of major indices, particularly the CSI 300 and the CSI 800, as more funds adopt passive investment strategies [4][32]. - Specific sectors such as financial services and consumer goods are identified as likely beneficiaries of increased public fund allocations due to their current underweight positions in fund portfolios [5][44].

证券研究报告 稳股市政策加码，寻找结构性机会 非银金融行业2025年度中期投资策略 姓名 高超（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520050001 邮箱：gaochao1@kysec.cn 姓名 卢崑（分析师） 证书编号：S0790524040002 邮箱：lukun@kysec.cn 2025 年 5月8日 核心观点 1. 稳股市政策加码，寻找结构性机会 面对外围环境不确定性，宏观稳增长和稳股市政策态度积极，权益市场改善利好非银金融板块机会。个人投资者活跃度提升利好券商和金融信 息服务业务，年报和1季报业绩展现高景气，板块估值仍在低位，看好板块机会；保险行业负债端有望稳健增长，分红险占比持续提升，负债 成本持续回落，关注权益弹性和经济复苏催化。 2. 券商及多元金融板块：经纪与投资业务支撑业绩增长，零售优势强、股息率高的头部券商性价比突出 （1）复盘：2024年/2025Q1上市券商归母净利润1448/517亿，同比+16%/+85%，剔除国泰海通非经常性损益后，2025Q1归母净利润428亿同比 +51%。经纪业务和投资业务同比增长驱动券商基本面持续向好，市场交易量维持高位且股市相对稳定，券商一季度衍生品业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown resilience and recovery following the "black swan" event triggered by the US's imposition of high tariffs, with many actively managed equity funds capitalizing on this opportunity to achieve new highs in net value [1][2]. Fund Performance - As of April 25, 250 actively managed equity funds have rebounded from the "golden pit" created by the tariff event, reaching new highs in net value for the year [1][2]. - Notably, the Huatai-PineBridge Hong Kong Advantage Select A fund has achieved a remarkable 64.44% increase year-to-date, primarily investing in innovative pharmaceutical companies listed in Hong Kong [2][3]. - Several funds focused on the pharmaceutical sector, such as Changcheng Pharmaceutical Industry Select A and Yongying Pharmaceutical Innovation Select A, have also reported year-to-date returns exceeding 40%, with a strong emphasis on innovative drug stocks [3]. Investment Focus - The majority of the funds that have performed well are heavily invested in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs and companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange [2][3]. - The Jin Yuan Shun An Yuan Qi fund has seen a staggering 396.6% increase since its inception, with a diversified investment strategy that limits exposure to any single stock [4]. - The Guotai Consumer Select fund has also performed well, focusing on high-quality companies in the consumer sector, including mid-to-high-end liquor and home appliances [4][5]. Market Outlook - Fund companies suggest a focus on domestic demand in the short term, while long-term investments should consider technology sectors, particularly those related to AI [6][7]. - The BoShi Fund emphasizes three main investment themes: defensive strategies during market volatility, opportunities in emerging industries driven by technological advancements, and sectors benefiting from domestic demand policies [6]. - Huabao Fund highlights the importance of sectors supported by domestic demand and policy expectations, including financials, real estate, and new consumer trends [7].

长按即可参与 "现在黄金应该买吗？""买多少合适？""AI赛道还能涨吗？"这些问题看似简单，却透露出一种普遍现象——许多人对投资缺乏清晰的规划和目标， 他们不断追逐热点，希望得到一个现成的答案。 对普通人来说，成功的投资从来不是靠追逐热点，盲目操作。每当我们在投资前思考，我们都可以先问问自己这三个问题，这3个问题是投资的起 点，也是成功的基石： 1. 你能承受的最大亏损比例是多少？ 2. 你预期的年化收益率是多少？ 3. 你预计投资的时间有多长？ 只有搞明白这3个问题，你才能从盲目的跟从者，变成一个有体系、有方向的投资者。今天我们就谈谈这3个问题的意义，以及为什么它们如此重 要。 一、能承受的最大亏损比例：风险管理是投资的基石 投资的第一课，不是追求收益，而是认识风险。很多人一谈到投资，满脑子都是"赚多少"，却很少思考"亏多少我还能睡得着"。但现实是，任何收 益都是对风险的补偿。如果你连自己能承受多大的回撤都不知道，就等于在没有安全绳的情况下爬悬崖。 为什么要把风险放在首位？ 风险承受能力是投资的底线，直接决定了你的策略边界。桥水基金创始人达里奥在全天候策略中指出："资产配置的核心是关于风险的配置，而不 是单 ...