2025年12月CEA和CCER价格走势分化 研究中心模型计算得出，2025年12月全国碳排放配额(CEA)的买入价格预期为53.45元/吨，卖出价 格预期为61.65元/吨，中间价为57.55元/吨；买入价格指数为100.00，卖出价格指数为105.82，中间价格 指数为103.03。同时，2025年12月中国核证自愿减排量(CCER)的买入价格预期为59.00元/吨，卖出价格 预期为69.40元/吨，中间价为64.20元/吨；买入价格指数为148.32，下跌1.12%；卖出价格指数为 166.95，上涨1.80%；中间价格指数为157.84，上涨0.44%。 11月29日，复旦大学可持续发展研究中心(以下简称"研究中心")公布了2025年12月复旦碳价指数结 果。此次公布了2025年12月全国碳排放配额(简称CEA)价格指数、2025年12月全国CCER价格指数以及 2025年12月中国绿色电力证书GEC价格指数。 11月全国碳市场交投活跃，全球主要碳市场成交量整体回暖 在发布环节，研究中心总结了11月全国碳市场的运行情况：第一，价格方面，本月CEA的日均收盘 价为59.87元/吨，相较于10月的日均收盘 ...

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for October 2025, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices, voluntary carbon market (CCER) prices, and green electricity certificate (GEC) prices [1][2]. CEA and CCER Price Indices - The expected buying price for CEA in October 2025 is 55.39 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 60.63 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 58.00 CNY/ton. The buying price index decreased by 19.09%, and the selling price index decreased by 16.23% [2][3]. - For December 2025, the expected buying price for CEA is 62.10 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 70.45 CNY/ton, leading to a midpoint price of 66.28 CNY/ton [2][3]. - The expected buying price for CCER in October 2025 is 69.00 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 76.83 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 72.92 CNY/ton. The buying price index decreased by 7.75%, and the selling price index decreased by 9.29% [2][3]. GEC Price Indices - The expected price for green certificates (GEC) for centralized projects produced in 2024 is 3.11 CNY/unit, with a price index of 62.79. For distributed projects, the price is 2.82 CNY/unit (index 53.87), and for biomass power generation, it is 1.84 CNY/unit (index 40.88) [4][5]. - For 2025 production, the expected price for centralized projects is 5.45 CNY/unit (index 99.09), for distributed projects is 5.20 CNY/unit (index 105.51), and for biomass projects is 5.55 CNY/unit (index 107.56) [4][5]. Market Activity in September - In September, the average closing price for CEA was 62.94 CNY/ton, down 11.5% from August's average of 71.12 CNY/ton. The price fluctuated from 69.41 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month to 59.16 CNY/ton by the end [6]. - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances increased to 136.78 million tons, a 90% increase compared to August's 71.95 million tons, indicating heightened market activity [6]. - The announcement of China's 2035 national contributions reflects a comprehensive approach to low-carbon development, emphasizing China's role in global climate governance [6]. Global Carbon Market Trends - In September, global carbon market trading volumes generally increased, with the EU market seeing a 30.02% rise in average daily trading volume, while the Korean market experienced a 49.10% decline [7]. - The EU carbon market's average price rose from 86.18 USD/ton to 88.90 USD/ton, while the UK market's price increased from 73.04 USD/ton to 75.99 USD/ton [7].

Group 1 - The national carbon market closed at 72.43 yuan/ton on August 1, down 0.07% from the previous day, with a 3.39% decline from the end of June [1] - In July, the national carbon market saw a total trading volume of 11.6642 million tons, a decrease of 26.57% month-on-month, ending a four-month growth trend [1] - The average daily trading volume in July was 510,300 tons, down 35.75% from June's 794,200 tons [1] Group 2 - The Fudan Carbon Price Index forecasts a buying price of 71.25 yuan/ton and a selling price of 76.04 yuan/ton for carbon emission allowances (CEA) by August 2025 [2] - As of July, the national carbon market has cumulatively traded 6.811 billion tons, with a total transaction value of 46.823 billion yuan [2] - The carbon trading management regulations will take effect on May 1, 2024, marking a significant step in the development of the carbon market [2] Group 3 - The chairman of Shanghai Environment Energy Exchange stated that efforts will continue to enhance the mechanisms of the national carbon trading market [3]