半导体供需改善复苏延续 半导体全球化周期： （1）供给侧：长期看产能规划、资本开支， 短期看设备采购、产能稼动率。 （2）需求侧：长期看新科技新产品驱动； 短期看终端库存、企业库存、日销售额订单。 （3）芯片价 格：反映周期波动的高频指标。 中国半导体发展： （1）技术0-1的积累：政策、金融、信创等 频繁刺 激下，各个细分市场逐步完成； （2）产能布局受限：逻辑与存储进步减缓； 功率与模拟在积极推进； （3）进口替代：中低端为主，高端缺口； 中国资本市场： （1）全球价格的接收端：由全球大厂控制 价格锚，我国价格多数折扣； （2）销售量边际影响加倍：龙头掌握渠道， 剩余市场国内企业内卷； （3）资本市场受量价预期影响：短期看全 球价格波动，中期看需求好转，长期看内生 增长的竞争力。 全球半导体周期： （1）3-7年周期：本轮 周期底部是2023年， 2024年已经有初步回暖 趋势，2025年1- 10月份 累计同比为21.19%， 全球销售额继续回暖。 （2）底部判断的依据： 供给侧是否持续，需求 侧 是否量增，价格端回 升的幅度与持续性。 （3）2026年展望： 2026年或继续受益AI高 速增长，销售额 ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪 国产 AIDC&算力(液冷、电源）专家交流 20260104 摘要 Q&A 2025 年和 2026 年 AIDC 整体规划及增速情况如何? 2025 年初市场预期约为 1,500 亿,但实际落地在中国的规模约为 500-600 兆瓦, 达到预期的 1/3。主要原因包括业务需求调整、24年发标量较高未完全使用以及 · 字节跳动 2026 年国内算力规划为 1.7GW,较 2024 年减少 400MW,自建与 代建比例维持在 7:3左右,内蒙古、浙江、芜湖等地自建比例略有提高。 海外方面,2025 年已在泰国招标约 200MW,2026 年计划扩展至泰国、马 来西亚、巴西和芬兰,总体量预计 600-800MW,但落地可能延至 2027年。 · 字节跳动拥有约 13.5 万张 NVIDIA 算力卡存量加新购,国内市场 2025 年 NVIDIA 与国产卡比例约为 8:2,预计 2026年调整至 7:3,海外市场则主 要采用 NVIDIA 的 H100 和 B200 系列,2026年将逐步引入 B300 系列及同 类中高端算力卡。 国内市场限制自 2025年1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, 高澜股份, is currently exploring "spray" liquid cooling technology, which is still in the early stages of technical exploration and limited pilot applications, while "cold plate" remains the mainstream solution in the market [2]. Group 1: Technology Status - The "spray" liquid cooling technology is in the exploration and small-scale pilot phase, indicating limited market application [2]. - The company acknowledges that "cold plate" technology is currently the most popular application in the market [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The company plans to continuously monitor the development trends of various liquid cooling technologies and aims to explore and iterate more advanced thermal management technologies in the future [2].

证券日报网讯12月25日，高澜股份（300499）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司已储备冷板式、 浸没式及集装箱式液冷等多种液冷技术，可针对性满足数据中心、智算中心等场景的高效散热需求，有 效降低PUE。公司产品应用领域正由直流输电、柔性交流输配电及大功率电气传动向石油石化、轨道交 通、船舶、医疗设备、数据中心、储能电站等不断扩充。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 62.4 yuan [2]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.977 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.05%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.704 billion yuan, up 210.74% year-over-year [2]. - The company has shown continuous quarter-over-quarter growth in both revenue and profit, indicating a positive trend in its delivery and deployment [2][7]. - The company has a robust resource reserve, having successfully listed its REIT project, which enhances its financing capabilities [2][7]. - The company is expanding its liquid cooling deployment, with new centers exceeding the power capacity of conventional data centers [2][7]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for intelligent computing centers driven by AI development [2][7]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to generate total revenue of 5.886 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.217 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [2][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 3.19 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15 [2][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 39.052 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 111.2% [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Runze Technology, is positioned to benefit from the transition of liquid cooling from an optional solution to a necessary one for high-power computing, driven by the rapid increase in chip and cabinet power since 2025 [1] Group 1: Liquid Cooling Technology - Since 2023, the company has delivered the industry's first fully liquid-cooled intelligent computing center, indicating a significant advancement in liquid cooling deployment [1] - The company has expanded its liquid cooling deployment scale, applying its self-developed next-generation cold plate liquid cooling technology across multiple new intelligent computing center projects nationwide [1] - The new technology enables high-density, green deployment with individual cabinets exceeding 40 kW [1] Group 2: Market Position and Operations - The company has established itself as one of the earliest third-party suppliers to scale deploy high-performance domestic liquid cooling computing power, reinforcing its leadership in liquid cooling [1] - The operational stability of liquid cooling computing centers has improved, supporting the company's ongoing commitment to reliable and secure operations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Runze Technology, has demonstrated strong financial performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 2.496 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.31%, and a net profit of 882 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 5.06% [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.496 billion yuan, marking a 15.31% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 882 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 5.06% [1][2]. - The IDC business generated revenue of 1.614 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.15%, contributing over 60% of the company's total revenue [3]. Group 2: Business Strategy and Growth - The company is executing its "AIDC leading" strategy, which has led to a significant upgrade in its business structure and rapid growth in AIDC business [6]. - The AIDC business generated revenue of 882 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.95%, becoming the company's second growth curve [6]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Capacity Expansion - The company has delivered a total of 18 data centers, with a high shelf rate of over 90% for mature data centers, and has established seven AIDC intelligent computing infrastructure clusters across six major regions in China [3]. - The company has made significant progress in power supply, with multiple new substations approved and operational across various parks, ensuring stable energy supply for long-term development [3]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - The company has been proactive in liquid cooling technology, which has transitioned from optional to essential, with applications expanding to high-density computing environments [9]. - Runze Technology has successfully delivered the industry's first pure liquid cooling green computing center, showcasing its leading capabilities in liquid cooling technology [9][10]. Group 5: Market Position and Client Relationships - The company has adopted a "self-invest, self-build, self-hold, self-operate" model for its data center clusters, enhancing its core competitiveness in the IDC industry [4]. - The company has built a strong "moat" through advanced planning and industry insight, leading to recognition from major clients and fostering a positive cycle of growth and innovation [11].

Core Viewpoint - Runze Technology (300442) reported a revenue of 2.496 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 15.31%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 882 million yuan [1] Group 1: Business Overview - The company's main businesses include IDC (Internet Data Center) and AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) services [1] - In the IDC sector, Runze collaborates with telecom operators to provide hosting and management services to major clients in the internet and cloud sectors [1] - The AIDC business focuses on building a comprehensive ecosystem for AI training and applications, transitioning from customer acquisition to high-quality operations, emphasizing stable profitability and long-term partnerships [1] Group 2: Delivery and Operations - The company has efficiently completed the delivery of new data centers, adding approximately 220 MW of capacity in the first half of 2025, with a total of 18 data centers delivered by June 30, 2025 [2] - Runze successfully delivered a new generation of AI data centers in the Yangtze River Delta, featuring high-density computing clusters and advanced cooling systems, achieving record deployment speeds [2] - The company has expanded its liquid cooling solutions, which are now essential for high-power computing, and has implemented self-developed cooling technologies across multiple new data center projects [2] Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - On August 8, 2023, Runze's data center REIT was officially listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, enhancing the company's asset management and capital structure [3] - The REIT listing represents an innovative practice in the company's strategy of combining heavy asset infrastructure with light asset operational services [3] - Runze aims to leverage its expertise in the intelligent computing sector to explore market potential and strengthen its leading position in the industry [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that liquid cooling technology, specifically the cold plate solution, is currently the mainstream choice in the market for data centers and similar applications [1] - Leading companies in the industry are adopting the cold plate liquid cooling technology due to its maturity and reliability [1] - The industrialization progress indicates that cold plate liquid cooling remains the preferred solution for current application scenarios [1]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for liquid cooling solutions, particularly cold plate cooling, is increasing due to the growing GPU solutions from overseas manufacturers, indicating a rising market potential in this sector [1] Industry Trends - The innovation in the industry has arrived earlier than expected, driven by the advantages of high integration, low power consumption, and cost-effectiveness [1] Investment Focus - It is recommended to pay close attention to manufacturers with mature cold plate liquid cooling technology, as well as key players involved in immersion cooling and spray cooling solutions [1]