Summary of Jinbo Biological Conference Call Company Overview - Jinbo Biological primarily focuses on medical beauty products, with injectable collagen being the main revenue contributor. The Weimi Beauty 4mg product accounts for nearly 80% of sales, while future growth relies on high-end products like Kenaite and 10mg variants [2][4]. Key Financial Insights - Jinbo Biological reported a revenue of 860 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 42%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 390 million yuan, up approximately 27%. However, the second quarter saw a slowdown in growth, with a net profit growth rate of 7.4% and a 2.3 percentage point impact from asset impairment losses, leading to an overall net profit decline of about 9.7% [3]. Product Structure and Market Strategy - The company’s product structure is heavily weighted towards medical beauty, particularly injectable collagen. The 4mg Weimi Beauty product has a high penetration rate and transparent pricing, ranging from several hundred yuan at the factory level to around 2000 yuan at retail. Jinbo plans to increase the proportion of high-end products like 8mg, 10mg, and 12mg to drive revenue growth [4][6]. Strategic Planning in Medical Aesthetics - Jinbo Biological aims to deepen OEM collaborations with leading medical beauty institutions to enhance customer flow and loyalty. These institutions typically use the 4mg product for customer acquisition but may partner with other manufacturers for lower-margin products [5][6]. Future Development Directions - In the next 1-2 years, existing products will remain the main growth drivers. The company has launched two new support-type products this year, with the gel product expected to reach a scale of 1 billion yuan within three years, targeting the high-end market. The factory price is several thousand yuan, with retail prices potentially exceeding 10,000 yuan [7]. Competitive Landscape - Jinbo Biological is currently the only manufacturer of recombinant collagen but faces potential new entrants by the end of this year or early next year. However, these new players will require time for team building and market promotion, providing Jinbo with a strategic opportunity. The competition in the animal collagen market is limited, with established manufacturers like Changchun Botai and Taiwan Shuangmei having unclear expansion plans [8]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for Jinbo Biological's net profit attributable to shareholders is approximately 1 billion yuan in 2025, 1.42 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.75 billion yuan in 2027. The price-to-earnings ratio is expected to narrow to below 30 times in 2026 and further to below 25 times in 2027. There is optimism regarding the continuation of improvement trends in the third and fourth quarters [9].

Macro Analysis - The increase in tariffs has only raised the average U.S. import tax rate by 6.6 percentage points as of June 2024, which is lower than market expectations. The low proportion of taxable goods and changes in import structure are key reasons for this outcome [2][3] - U.S. companies are currently bearing approximately 63% of the tariff costs, while consumers are responsible for less than 40%. This cost distribution may change as inventory is depleted and trade policy uncertainties decrease [3] - If the average U.S. import tax rate rises by 10% within the year, it could push the PCE year-on-year growth rate to 3.1% and the core PCE to 3.4%, assuming stable demand [3] Market Strategy - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue rising, with the index likely to reach new highs. Factors supporting this outlook include accelerated economic transformation, declining risk-free interest rates, and capital market reforms [6][7] - There is an anticipated expansion in market trends, with increased allocations towards mid-cap stocks and undervalued blue-chip stocks. The improvement in traditional industries and a focus on domestic demand are also contributing to this positive outlook [8][9] Industry Comparison - Emerging technology is seen as a primary investment focus, while cyclical financial sectors are viewed as potential dark horses. The Hong Kong stock market is expected to rebound [9][10] - Recommendations include sectors such as AI applications, consumer goods, and high-end equipment, with a particular emphasis on companies benefiting from technological upgrades and policy support [10] Foreign Investment Trends - Following the Fed's shift towards rate cuts, foreign capital may return to Hong Kong stocks, which have seen a historical low in foreign investment allocation. Recent signs indicate a potential stabilization in foreign capital flows [13][14] - Foreign investment preferences in Hong Kong are heavily weighted towards technology and financial sectors, with a notable focus on companies with strong fundamentals and profitability [14][15] Investment Recommendations - The beauty and personal care sector is expected to see significant growth, with a recommendation for selective investment in companies demonstrating product and channel innovation [17][18] - The first half of 2025 showed a revenue increase of 7.2% and a net profit growth of 1.9% in the beauty sector, with personal care outperforming cosmetics and medical aesthetics [18][19]

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy has evolved into a comprehensive governance system covering various dimensions such as law, industry, finance, medical insurance, and investment access, entering the substantive execution phase [2][26][28] - The potential impact of the "anti-involution" policy includes a rebound in industrial product prices, with historical data indicating that upstream prices may rebound approximately one year after production limits are imposed [2][27] - The concentration of industries has increased significantly since the supply-side reform began in 2015, with the CR5 index showing notable improvements in sectors like agriculture and machinery [2][27] Group 2 - The demand for AI computing power is driving upgrades in data centers, with larger-scale deployments and increased power per cabinet, indicating a new development opportunity for the industry [3] - The "East Data West Computing" initiative provides a clear direction for the large-scale and intensive development of data centers, combining low-cost resources in the west with high market demand in the east [3] - The introduction of various policies is expected to support the healthy and orderly development of the IDC industry, with a focus on green transformation and sustainable development [3] Group 3 - The domestic spandex industry is highly concentrated, with the top five producers accounting for 79% of total capacity as of 2024, up from 61% in 2019 [5][8] - The industry is currently experiencing a period of average losses, with a significant decline in profitability, as the average gross profit per ton is approximately -6000 yuan [5][8] - The postponement or reduction of new capacity investments is anticipated, along with an increase in the elimination of outdated capacity due to severe internal competition [5][8] Group 4 - The helium supply may face disruptions due to the attack on the Orenburg helium plant in Russia, which accounts for 3% of global supply and 62.5% of Russia's production [10][41] - Domestic helium production is limited, with a high dependence on imports, particularly from Russia, which constituted 7.7% of China's helium imports in 2023 [10] - Companies like Guanggang Gas and Jin Hong Gas are recommended for attention due to their roles in the domestic helium supply chain [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 859 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.43%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 392 million yuan, up 26.65% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to experience growth driven by new gel products and international expansion, with projected revenues of 2.194 billion yuan, 3.000 billion yuan, and 3.796 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the gross margin was 90.68%, a decrease of 0.90 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 45.66%, down 5.69 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The medical device segment generated 708 million yuan in revenue for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 33.41%, accounting for 82.45% of total revenue [3] - The functional skincare segment saw significant growth, with revenue of 121 million yuan, up 152.39% year-on-year, representing 14.10% of total revenue [3] Product and Market Development - The company has launched new high-end gel products, with expectations for increased sales in the second half of the year [4] - The company is accelerating its international expansion, having received new approvals in Thailand and obtained four international invention patents [4]

锦波生物 20250603 摘要 锦波生物 2025 年第一季度收入增长 66%，重组胶原蛋白领域领先，护 肤品业务增速达 15%-20%，受益于早期医美布局和重鹏等品牌。 医美行业注射胶原蛋白 2024 年增速近 40%-50%，预计 2025 年仍保 持 20%-30%增长。锦波生物产品需求超预期，化妆品领域增速远超同 行。 锦波生物拥有合规三类注射医疗器械证照，科瑞康注册牛源胶原蛋白三 类证产品。与李佳琦合作使同频产品在天猫 618 预售中表现突出。 锦波生物 2024 年毛利率超 92%，净利率约 51%。医疗器械相关产品 占收入 85%，其中 90%为微医美三类医疗器械，化妆品占比约 10%。 预计 2025 年微医美收入增长超 50%。新产品如 12 毫克 Count 系列和 凝胶产品将挤占玻尿酸市场份额，刺激新增需求。 锦波生物已覆盖一线、二线城市七八成大型医美机构，渠道下沉至二三 线城市将带来增量，零售价格下滑刺激放量。 重组胶原蛋白安全性高，无栓塞风险，效果自然可循环，凝胶形态入场 可增加供给。已覆盖超 4,000 家医美机构，市场规模接近 20 亿元。 Q&A 锦波生物的业务结构及财务状况 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.026 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.45%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.958 billion yuan, which is a 5.33% increase year-on-year. A cash dividend of 38 yuan (including tax) is proposed for every 10 shares held [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company experienced revenue pressure, achieving 650 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7%, and a net profit of 372 million yuan, down 15.5% year-on-year. The annual revenue breakdown for 2024 was 810 million, 850 million, 720 million, and 650 million yuan for Q1 to Q4, respectively, with changes of +28%, +2.35%, +1.1%, and -7% [12]. - For the entire year, the solution and gel products maintained stable growth, with revenue from solution products at 1.7 billion yuan (up 4.4% year-on-year) and gel products at 1.2 billion yuan (up 5% year-on-year). Direct sales channels generated approximately 2 billion yuan in sales (up 12.4%), while distribution channels saw a decline of 6% to about 1 billion yuan [12]. - The company maintained a gross margin of 95% for the year, with the gross margin for solution products narrowing by 0.72 percentage points and for gel products increasing by 0.49 percentage points. The R&D expense ratio rose to 10% [12]. Product Development and Market Outlook - The company has a rich pipeline of products in development, including a medical-grade polyvinyl alcohol gel for correcting chin retraction, which has received a Class III medical device registration certificate. Other products are in various stages of approval [12]. - The company plans to acquire a controlling stake in South Korea's REGEN, which is expected to enhance its regenerative materials product line and expand its global market presence [12]. - EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 7.12, 7.92, and 8.68 yuan, respectively, supporting the "Buy" rating [12].