证 券 研 究 报 告 老凤祥（600612）2025 年业绩快报点评 强推（维持） 受益黄金高景气，25Q4 表现亮眼 目标价：61.43 元 事项： 公司发布 2025 年业绩快报。2025 年，公司预计实现营收/归母净利润/扣非归 母净利润 528.2/17.5/15.9 亿元，分别同比下滑 7.0%/10.0%/11.9%；据此推测， 单四季度，公司实现营收/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润 48.2/3.2/3.1 亿元，分别 同比增加 14.5%/82.5%/199.1%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 56,793 | 52,823 | 54,947 | 57,525 | | 同比增速(%) | -20.5% | -7.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,950 | 1,763 | 1,890 | 2,008 | | 同比增速(%) | -11.9% | -9.6% | ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 56,793 | 52,823 | 54,947 | 57,525 | | 同比增速(%) | -20.5% | -7.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,950 | 1,763 | 1,890 | 2,008 | | 同比增速(%) | -11.9% | -9.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | | 每股盈利(元) | 3.73 | 3.37 | 3.61 | 3.84 | | 市盈率(倍) | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 3 月 6 日收盘价 公司研究 珠宝首饰及钟表 2026 年 03 月 09 日 | | | 老凤祥（600612）2025 年业绩快报点评 强推（维持） 受益 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for key companies in the industry, including Li Ning, Anta Sports, and Shenzhou International [4][30]. Core Insights - Adidas reported strong operational performance for 2025, with revenue growth of 5% to €24.8 billion, and a significant increase in operating profit by 54% to €2.056 billion [1][17]. - The company expects high single-digit revenue growth for 2026, with operating profit projected to reach approximately €2.3 billion [2][18]. - The report highlights that all global markets for Adidas achieved double-digit growth on a currency-neutral basis in 2025, indicating an increase in market share [3][23]. Summary by Sections Adidas Performance - In 2025, Adidas' revenue reached €24.8 billion, with a 5% increase year-on-year, and a 13% increase on a currency-neutral basis excluding Yeezy products [1][17]. - The gross margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 51.6%, and operating profit surged by 54% to €2.056 billion [1][17]. Regional Performance - Europe: Revenue of €8.136 billion, with an 8% increase on a currency-neutral basis [25]. - North America: Revenue of €5.087 billion, with a 4% increase on a currency-neutral basis [25]. - Greater China: Revenue of €3.623 billion, with a 9% increase on a currency-neutral basis [25]. - Emerging Markets: Revenue of €3.510 billion, with a 15% increase on a currency-neutral basis [25]. - Latin America: Revenue of €2.926 billion, with a 21% increase on a currency-neutral basis [25]. - Japan/Korea: Revenue of €1.406 billion, with an 11% increase on a currency-neutral basis [25]. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates that the sports footwear and apparel sector will continue to outperform the broader apparel market, with strong inventory management capabilities among key companies [26]. - Recommendations include Li Ning and Anta Sports, with expected profit growth in the coming years [26][27]. Key Company Recommendations - Li Ning: Expected profit decline of 9% to ¥2.74 billion in 2025, with a projected increase of 5.8% to ¥2.901 billion in 2026 [26]. - Anta Sports: Expected profit decline of 15% to ¥13.2 billion in 2025, with a projected increase of 6.4% to ¥14 billion in 2026 [26]. - Shenzhou International: Anticipated stable revenue and profit growth, with a PE ratio of 10 times for 2026 [28]. Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the broader market, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index down by 1.07% and the textile manufacturing sector down by 2.43% [34].

Core Viewpoint - The company faces performance pressure due to high gold prices and a high industry base, leading to a decline in revenue and net profit. However, it is actively enhancing product innovation and brand upgrades to build core competitiveness [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.52% and 13.07% year-on-year, respectively [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue growth of 10.51% year-on-year, showing significant improvement compared to the previous quarter [3]. Group 2: Product Innovation and Brand Strategy - The company is optimizing its product structure and upgrading its brand by launching new products with traditional craftsmanship features, such as the "盛唐风华" and "凤舞九天" series, to replace homogenized products [1]. - Collaborations with top IPs like "Saint Seiya" are aimed at attracting younger consumers and enhancing product value and brand influence [1][3]. Group 3: Channel Development - As of the end of June 2025, the company had a total of 5,550 marketing outlets, with a net increase of 9 outlets in Q2 2025, reversing the previous trend of outlet decline [2]. - The company is upgrading traditional stores and creating differentiated theme stores, such as the high-end "藏宝金" and wedding-focused "凤祥喜事," to improve single-store operational quality [2]. - The launch of the company's Tmall flagship store in early 2025 marks a significant step in the integration of online and offline channels, potentially creating new growth points for performance [2]. Group 4: Strategic Outlook - The company plans to continue focusing on "product innovation, channel optimization, and brand youthfulness" as its main strategic directions [3]. - With ongoing product structure optimization and channel quality improvement, along with the low base effect in the second half of the year, the company is expected to enter a sustained recovery phase [3]. - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 3.39, 3.71, and 4.01 yuan, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a 2Q25 revenue of 158.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, indicating a recovery in performance despite a challenging environment due to high gold prices [1][2] - The company plans to open 194 new online stores in the second half of the year, which is expected to further improve performance [1] - The company has diversified its product offerings, launching new themed products and increasing the sales of craft gold bars, contributing to the positive revenue growth in 2Q25 [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 1H25, the company reported a revenue of 333.6 billion RMB, a decrease of 16.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.2 billion RMB, down 13.1% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for 1H25 was 8.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a higher proportion of lower-margin gold bar sales and weak consumer demand [3] - The company’s net profit margin for 1H25 was 3.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 16.5 billion RMB, 18.5 billion RMB, and 20.6 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of -15.5%, +12.6%, and +11.3% respectively [4] - The target price is set at 63 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20 times for 2025 [4][5]