汇丰指出，该公司管理层预计，2025年下半年铝价将保持坚挺，处于每吨20,600–21,300元人民币之间; 氧化铝价格预计在每吨3,200–3,300元人民币之间。2025年资本开支预计为120亿–130亿元人民币，与 2024年持平。此外，更多产能将在2025年下半年搬迁至云南，预计云南产能年底将达到220万吨(总产能 约650万吨)。西芒杜铁矿项目预计今年11月交付首批矿石。 智通财经APP获悉，汇丰控股发布研报称，受益于需求上升、氧化铝和铝的价格和销量均实现增长，中 国宏桥(01378)2025年上半年业绩强劲。该行预计，尽管2025年下半年氧化铝价格同比下跌可能导致盈 利增速暂时回落，但在强劲需求的支撑下铝价存在上行风险。该行还指出，尽管该股股价近期上涨，但 股息率仍具有吸引力。该行维持对中国宏桥的"买入"评级，目标价由20.60港元上调至25.70港元。 展望未来，汇丰预计，该公司2025年下半年盈利同比涨幅将有所回落，主要是由于2024年第四季度创纪 录的氧化铝价格带来了较高的盈利同比基数。尽管如此，该公司仍具备多重利好因素，包括：4500万吨 产能上限仍是维持供给纪律的关键措施;电网投资、电动 ...

汇丰指出，中国宏桥2025年上半年实现净利润124亿元人民币，同比增长35%，符合此前的业绩预告。 强劲的盈利表现主要得益于：(1)氧化铝价格上涨(同比上涨10%)以及铝价上涨(同比上涨3%);(2)受益于 下游需求强劲以及铝加工产品市场份额提升，铝合金、加工产品和氧化铝销量分别提升约2%、3%和 16%。 展望未来，汇丰预计，该公司2025年下半年盈利同比涨幅将有所回落，主要是由于2024年第四季度创纪 录的氧化铝价格带来了较高的盈利同比基数。尽管如此，该公司仍具备多重利好因素，包括：4500万吨 产能上限仍是维持供给纪律的关键措施;电网投资、电动车销量以及出口复苏将继续支撑需求;汽车以旧 换新补贴仍在提供需求支撑。该行表示，在低库存和严格产能上限的背景下，下半年铝价存在上行风 险。此外，更广泛的"反内卷"政策可能强化铝行业产能上限，从而帮助维持市场纪律。 汇丰控股发布研报称，受益于需求上升、氧化铝和铝的价格和销量均实现增长，中国宏桥(01378)2025 年上半年业绩强劲。该行预计，尽管2025年下半年氧化铝价格同比下跌可能导致盈利增速暂时回落，但 在强劲需求的支撑下铝价存在上行风险。该行还指出，尽管该股 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 156.169 billion yuan, a gross profit of 42.163 billion yuan, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.372 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 16.9%, 101.2%, and 95.21% respectively [1][2]. - The increase in profits is primarily driven by rising aluminum prices and a decrease in the costs of coal and prebaked anodes, which has led to lower costs for electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The company has significantly increased its dividend payout, with a total dividend of 1.61 HKD per share for 2024, representing a 155.56% increase from the previous year, resulting in a dividend yield of 10% based on the current share price [5]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The sales volume of aluminum alloy products increased by 1.5% to 5.837 million tons, while the sales volume of processed products surged by 32.1% to 766,000 tons, contributing to revenue growth [2]. - The average price of aluminum in 2024 is projected to be 19,976 yuan per ton, up 7.2% year-on-year, while the average price of prebaked anodes is expected to decrease by 19.7% to 3,958 yuan per ton [2]. - The company’s alumina sales volume is expected to reach 10.921 million tons, a 5.3% increase, with revenue and gross profit from alumina rising by 40.6% and 347.25% respectively [3]. Cost and Expense Management - The company has maintained stable expense levels, with significant increases in investment income from joint ventures, rising from 1.2 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.8 billion yuan in 2024 [4]. - The company recorded a total impairment and fair value change of 4.8 billion yuan, with 2.6 billion yuan attributed to fixed asset impairment primarily related to power plants [4]. Dividend Policy - The company’s dividend payout ratio reached 63%, significantly exceeding expectations, with a total dividend amounting to 15.3 billion HKD [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 156.169 billion yuan, a gross profit of 42.163 billion yuan, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.372 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 16.9%, 101.2%, and 95.21% respectively [1][2]. - The increase in profits is primarily driven by rising aluminum prices and a decrease in costs for electrolytic aluminum due to falling prices of coal and prebaked anodes [1]. - The company has significantly increased its dividend payout, with a total dividend of 1.61 HKD per share for 2024, representing a 155.56% increase from the previous year, resulting in a dividend yield of 10% based on the current share price [5]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The sales volume of aluminum alloy products increased by 1.5% to 5.837 million tons in 2024, while processed product sales surged by 32.1% to 766,000 tons, contributing to revenue and gross profit increases of 8.2% and 53.14% respectively for aluminum alloys [2]. - The average price of aluminum in 2024 is projected to be 19,976 yuan per ton, up 7.2% year-on-year, while the cost of aluminum alloy products is expected to decrease due to lower prices of prebaked anodes [2]. - For alumina, sales volume is expected to reach 10.921 million tons, a 5.3% increase, with revenue and gross profit rising by 40.6% and 347.25% respectively, driven by a significant price increase from 2,919 yuan per ton in 2023 to 4,078 yuan per ton in 2024 [3]. Cost and Expense Management - The company has maintained stable expense levels, with investment income from joint ventures increasing to 1.8 billion yuan, up from 1.2 billion yuan in 2023 [4]. - Non-operating impacts, such as impairment provisions and fair value changes, have slightly affected profit levels, but the underlying operational performance remains strong [4]. Dividend Policy - The company has exceeded expectations with its dividend policy, achieving a payout ratio of 63% and a substantial increase in total dividend payments [5].