本文黄金、白银等产品行情分析，以国际报价为基准；国际和国内价格换算方法，国际价格×汇率÷31.1≈国内价格！ 上周贵金属金银铂钯，白银，铂金，钯金集体大涨，周五三者涨幅均达10%以上；今天开盘后白银继续飙升，价格来到84美元附近后跳水，抹掉涨幅最大下 跌至74.9美元附近一度达6%，铂钯则开盘平稳，后跟随白银跳水。 黄金走势多头相对疲软，目前连上周高点都没能突破，并且下破了4500美元大关，最低一度至4473美元附近！这种盘中巨震，尤其是白银，相当罕见！这种 盘中巨震，目前无法断定是多头结束空头的开启还是洗盘；从国内期货白银走势就能看出来，目前依然是多头强势，国际国内呈现分化。 接下来，将黄金走扫荡行情，早盘回落低点4470-75区域成多空争夺的重点；多头坚守，还有上涨，一旦下破，本轮多头就面临结束走阶段性调整了；然后 考验下方4450及4430区域支撑，进一步考验前期历史新高4380-70区域！上方短期阻力4215-20区域，重点新高4550区域！ 操作上，早间一波扫荡后，日内走震荡；杠杆产品，多空都不追，压力和支撑参与日内短线。非杠杆产品，积存金等等，低位没进，耐心回落。实物，忽视 短期波动，拿着就行，担 ...

沪银涨逾5%，国际现货白银跳空高开 25日夜盘时段，沪银期货主力合约盘中涨超5%，报18054元/千克。截至收盘，沪银涨5.50%，报18131 元/千克。 今早7时，现货白银跳空高开，突破73美元/盎司，再创历史新高，报73.7美元/盎司。纽约期银同样跳空 高开，现涨逾2%。现货钯日内涨逾2%，现报1728.79美元/盎司。 截至目前，现货白银价格年内涨幅接近150%。 海外机构StoneX的高级技术策略师表示，8月白银价格突破上行趋势阻力位，成为多头行情的关键拐 点。此次价格突破的同时，动量指标同步站上70关口，月线相对强弱指数（RSI）攀升至2011年以来的 最高水平。价格突破阻力后，市场多头情绪持续升温，但持续的超买状态，让不少交易者选择"等待回 调"再入场布局。然而白银价格并未出现显著回调，动量指标已连续第五周站稳70关口。白银价格突破 阻力位后，RSI同步进入超买区间，往往预示着一轮涨势中最快、最迅猛的上涨阶段将至。不少交易者 因认定"涨幅过高的行情易遇挫"而错失机会，实则陷入了认知误区。RSI是实用的技术分析工具，但它 的重要性永远不能凌驾于支撑位与阻力位的核心技术分析之上。 上述策略师预计，人 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market continued to rise last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index having five consecutive positive days and reaching a phased high on Friday. The market's structural trend remains, and the previously mentioned potential negative factors did not occur, so the market continued to rise in a volatile manner. Overseas, the US Nasdaq index hit a record high on Friday [1]. - Although the micro - trading structure has deteriorated due to the continuous market rise, the reversal of the market trend mainly depends on the change in fundamentals. Currently, the probability of negative factors emerging is low, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut is rising. The market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend without significant disturbances, but there will be adjustment pressure if negative news increases [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market Review - Last week, most global stock indexes rose. The US Nasdaq index rose 3.87%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.11%, and other major indexes also showed varying degrees of increase [7]. - All major domestic indexes rose last week. The CSI 1000 index had the largest increase of 14.8%, followed by the ChiNext Index with a 9.0% increase [10]. - Most industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indexes rose last week. In the CSI 300 index, the materials industry had the largest increase of 5.64%, while the pharmaceutical industry fell 1.08%. In the CSI 500 index, the energy industry had the largest increase of 4.32%, and the information industry fell 0.05% [11]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, the IM2508 futures contract had the largest increase among the main stock index futures contracts, and also had the largest amplitude. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased [13][15][19]. 3.3 Index Valuation Tracking - As of August 1st, the PE (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 15.41 times, the CSI 300 index was 13.11 times, the SSE 50 index was 11.25 times, the CSI 500 index was 30.33 times, and the CSI 1000 index was 41.17 times [24][25]. 3.4 Market Capital Flow Review - The number of newly established equity - biased funds and new investors in the two markets showed certain trends. The capital interest rate declined last week, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal [28]. 4. Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [3]. - **Trend - following Strategy**: Adopt a bullish view on pullbacks. The core operating ranges for the IF2508, IH2508, IC2508, and IM2508 main contracts are 3974 - 4179 points, 2715 - 2841 points, 6110 - 6520 points, and 6572 - 7015 points respectively [3]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [4].

Group 1 - The futures market experienced a bullish trend driven by production cut news, leading to significant price increases in various commodities [1] - Polysilicon prices surged by 6%, while焦煤 (coking coal) rose nearly 5%, industrial silicon increased by 4%, and lithium carbonate saw a 3% rise [1] - Other commodities such as焦炭 (coke), European shipping, pure soda, and 20号胶 (No. 20 rubber) also experienced gains exceeding 2% [1] Group 2 - In contrast, crude oil showed weak performance with a decline of over 1% [1]

Core Insights - Gold has entered a bearish trend, briefly dropping below 3300 before recovering, raising questions about the potential for a bullish market to return [1] Group 1 - The current trend for gold is bearish, indicating a downward movement in prices [1] - Gold prices briefly fell below the 3300 mark, suggesting volatility in the market [1] - There is speculation regarding the possibility of a bullish trend returning in the future [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are stabilizing and beginning to rebound, suggesting a potential bullish trend in the market [1] Group 2 - The current market conditions present trading opportunities for investors looking to capitalize on the anticipated upward movement in gold prices [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold has stabilized and rebounded, suggesting a potential bullish trend following the breakout of resistance levels [1] - There is an emphasis on monitoring order flow for entry signals, which could provide insights into market movements and trading opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The overall market direction remains bullish, but caution is advised due to potential high-level fluctuations and consolidation [1][3] - Recent gold prices showed a slight decline, with a daily high of $3356.6 and a low of $3323.5, closing at $3341, indicating a stable overall range [3] - The previous Friday's significant increase was followed by a correction, with resistance levels near $3380-$3400, suggesting limited upward movement of $20-$30 [3] Group 2 - The weekly outlook continues to favor bullish positions, with expectations to break above last week's high of $3365 towards the $3380-$3430 resistance area [3] - Short-term trading strategies emphasize caution in high-level positions, with support levels identified at $3320 and potential further declines to $3300-$3280 for bottom-fishing [3] - The 4-hour chart indicates a pressure zone between $3355-$3360, with a need to maintain above $3360 for further upward movement [3]