| | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | | LL PP | | | | | | | | | 1月 5月 9月 1月 5月 9月 | | | | | | | | | 前日收盘价 | 6272 | 6320 | 6367 | 6132 | 6213 | 6240 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 6433 | 6476 | 6514 | 6202 | 6279 | 6303 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -161 | -156 | -147 | -70 | -66 | -63 | | | 涨跌幅 | -2.50% | -2.41% | -2.26% | -1.13% | -1.05% | -1.00% | | 市 场 | 成交量 | 66179 | 721995 | 14047 | 51796 | 375015 | 6257 | | | ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 6516 | 6543 | 6568 | 6192 | 6256 | 6291 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 涨跌 | 6522 -6 | 6557 -14 | 6583 -15 | 6178 14 | 6254 2 | 6277 14 | | 货 | | | | | | | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.09% | -0.21% | -0.23% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.22% | | | 成交量 | 74760 | 300927 | 6417 | 128985 | 303323 | 6466 | | 场 | 持仓量 | 135903 | 510143 | 1043 ...

| | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | 1月 5月 9月 1月 5月 | | | | | | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 6476 | | 6486 | 6519 | 6129 | 6168 | 6211 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 6534 | | 6558 | 6600 | 6177 | 6241 | 6280 | | 货 | 涨跌 -58 | | -72 | -81 | -48 | -73 | -69 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 -0.89% | | -1.10% | -1.23% | -0.78% | -1.17% | -1.10% | | 场 | 成交量 168516 | | 367973 | 5244 | 285479 | 285582 | 3813 | | | 持仓量 | 184121 | 4796 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined. On the spot market, the prices of linear LL from Sinopec remained stable, while those from PetroChina were partially reduced by 100 yuan. For drawn PP, the prices from both Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, and demand is steadily being released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins themselves is at a low level, and after the current rebound, they generally maintain a low-level oscillation process [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6643 yuan, 6708 yuan, and 6754 yuan respectively, with declines of -31 yuan, -34 yuan, and -34 yuan, and decreases of -0.46%, -0.50%, and -0.50% respectively. The trading volumes were 234,875, 153,809, and 1,942 respectively, and the open interests were 374,193, 315,983, and 5,089 respectively, with changes of -19,347, +21,166, and +386 respectively. The current spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -65 yuan, -46 yuan, and 111 yuan respectively [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6275 yuan, 6370 yuan, and 6409 yuan respectively, with declines of -12 yuan, -12 yuan, and -11 yuan, and decreases of -0.19%, -0.19%, and -0.17% respectively. The trading volumes were 299,256, 139,493, and 2,275 respectively, and the open interests were 423,064, 319,140, and 17,920 respectively, with changes of -11,444, +12,252, and +124 respectively. The current spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -95 yuan, -39 yuan, and 134 yuan respectively [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2093 yuan/ton, 6100 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6083 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6750 - 7150 yuan, 6600 - 6900 yuan, and 6750 - 7100 yuan respectively. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6200 - 6350 yuan, 6100 - 6250 yuan, and 6200 - 6450 yuan respectively [2]. News - On Monday (December 8), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.88 per barrel, down $1.20 from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.00%, with a trading range of $58.68 - $60.30. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.49 per barrel, down $1.26 from the previous trading day, a decrease of 1.98%, with a trading range of $62.34 - $63.96 [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined. On the spot market, prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. From a fundamental perspective, the overall operating rate of downstream demand seems to have reached its peak, and demand is steadily being released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins is at a low level, and after the current rebound, they generally remain in a low - level oscillation process [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: For LL futures, the prices of contracts in January, May, and September decreased by -1.51%, -1.27%, and -1.15% respectively compared to the previous two days; for PP futures, the decreases were -1.13%, -1.08%, and -0.96% respectively [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL futures contracts in January, May, and September were 282,287, 144,721, and 1,390 respectively; for PP futures, they were 259,821, 108,437, and 2,085 respectively [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL futures contracts in January, May, and September were 393,540, 294,817, and 4,703 respectively, with changes of +7,056, +25,032, and +250; for PP futures, they were 434,508, 306,888, and 17,796 respectively, with changes of -15,691, +14,332, and +78 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL futures, the spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -68, -46, and 114 respectively; for PP futures, they were -95, -38, and 133 respectively [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2,081 yuan/ton, 6,050 yuan/ton, 585 dollars/ton, 5,600 yuan/ton, 6,100 yuan/ton, and 8,700 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Mid - stream Market**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6,800 - 7,150 yuan/ton, 6,650 - 6,950 yuan/ton, and 6,800 - 7,150 yuan/ton respectively; for PP, they were 6,200 - 6,350 yuan/ton, 6,150 - 6,300 yuan/ton, and 6,250 - 6,450 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Friday (December 5th), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.08 per barrel, up $0.41 or 0.69% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.42 - $60.50. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.75 per barrel, up $0.49 or 0.77% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.06 - $64.09 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. On the spot market, prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of downstream demand is high, with demand steadily released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities as a whole. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins is at a low level, and after the rebound, they generally maintain a low - level oscillation process. Future attention should be paid to marginal consumption, supply, and production scheduling levels [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6776, 6829, and 6867 respectively, down -0.47%, -0.65%, and -0.67% from the day before the previous day. For PP, the corresponding prices were 6359, 6452, and 6482, down -0.36%, -0.40%, and -0.32%. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 210139, 118193, and 1134 respectively. For PP, they were 206027, 87292, and 1646. - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 386484, 269785, and 4453 respectively, with changes of -16226, 14989, and 180. For PP, they were 450199, 292556, and 17718, with changes of -9702, 10392, and 161. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -53, -38, and 91 respectively, compared with -66, -39, and 105 previously. For PP, they were -93, -30, and 123, compared with -96, -25, and 121 previously [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2116 yuan/ton, 6065 yuan/ton, 583 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6150 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. - **Mid - stream**: In the LL market, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China were 6850 - 7250 yuan/ton, 6700 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively. In the PP market, they were 6250 - 6400 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6300 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton [2] News - On Thursday (December 4), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.67 per barrel, up $0.72 or 1.22% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.81 - $60.02. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.26 per barrel, up $0.59 or 0.94%, with a trading range of $62.53 - $63.62 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, with demand steadily released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market. In the short term, the self - valuation of polyolefins is at a low level, and the market may continue the low - level oscillation trend in the future [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6793, 6845, and 6880 respectively, with price increases of 23, 14, and 3 and percentage increases of 0.34%, 0.20%, and 0.04% respectively. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 6372, 6474, and 6519, with price increases of 15, 0, and 2 and percentage increases of 0.24%, 0.00%, and 0.03% respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 334461, 107016, and 1244 respectively, and the open interests were 497429, 176591, and 2688 respectively, with open interest changes of - 15317, 25839, and 129 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes were 374416, 95707, and 1999 respectively, and the open interests were 605178, 183032, and 10073 respectively, with open interest changes of - 21657, 21079, and 206 respectively [2] - **Spread**: The current spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 52, - 35, and 87 respectively, compared with previous values of - 61, - 46, and 107. For PP, the current spreads are - 102, - 45, and 147 respectively, compared with previous values of - 117, - 43, and 160 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film are 2082 yuan/ton, 5925 yuan/ton, 561 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6160 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes compared to the previous values [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6900 - 7350 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7400 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the ranges are 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6350 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes compared to the previous values [2] Consumption Information - On Monday (November 24), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.84 per barrel, up $0.78 or 1.34% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.42 - $59.06. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.37 per barrel, up $0.81 or 1.29% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.94 - $63.56 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefin futures showed narrow - range consolidation. On the spot market, linear LL prices from Sinopec remained stable, while some prices from PetroChina were raised by 50. For拉丝PP, prices from both Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily being released. After a continuous decline earlier, there was a slight rebound last week. Overall, the market is still in a low - level consolidation. Future attention should be paid to the intensity of seasonal demand and changes in the cost side [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6843, 6902, and 6949 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the price changes were - 10, - 13, and - 7, with price decline rates of - 0.15%, - 0.19%, and - 0.10% respectively. The trading volumes were 206820, 42477, and 227, and the open interests were 542295, 115114, and 2254, with changes in open interests of 1540, 1481, and - 31 respectively. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 59, - 47, and 106, compared with previous values of - 62, - 41, and 103 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6467, 6565, and 6606 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the price changes were - 7, - 10, and - 7, with price decline rates of - 0.11%, - 0.15%, and - 0.11% respectively. The trading volumes were 231256, 35837, and 591, and the open interests were 632878, 157881, and 9134, with changes in open interests of 10826, 3191, and 144 respectively. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 98, - 41, and 139, compared with previous values of - 101, - 38, and 139 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2035 yuan/ton, 5845 yuan/ton, 553 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6230 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, methanol futures decreased from 2062 yuan/ton, and Shandong propylene increased from 5800 yuan/ton, while other raw materials remained unchanged [2]. - **Spot Market (Mid - stream)**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6950 - 7450 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7400 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges in the East China and South China markets remained the same, while in the North China market, the previous range was 6800 - 7050 and 8100 - 8250. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6350 - 6550 yuan/ton, 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, and 6450 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges in the East China and North China markets remained the same, and in the South China market, the previous range was 6400 - 6550 [2]. Information and Comment - On Monday (November 17), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.91 per barrel, a decrease of $0.18 or 0.30% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.32 - $60.44. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.2 per barrel, a decrease of $0.19 or 0.30% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.67 - $64.72 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP remained stable for Sinopec and PetroChina. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, with demand steadily releasing. However, there are concerns about the January contract as the peak - demand season enters the second half, leading to a cooling market sentiment and mainly downward - trending futures. After continuous declines since November released short - selling pressure, the market may gradually stabilize [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6853, 6915, and 6956 respectively, with price increases of 35, 22, and 18, and percentage increases of 0.51%, 0.32%, and 0.26%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6474, 6575, and 6613 respectively, with price changes of - 6, - 2, and 1, and percentage changes of - 0.09%, - 0.03%, and 0.02% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 347525, 54367, and 707 respectively, and the open interests were 540755, 113633, and 2285 respectively, with open - interest changes of - 40847, 1248, and - 4. For PP, the trading volumes were 308865, 62940, and 1407 respectively, and the open interests were 622052, 154690, and 8990 respectively, with open - interest changes of - 6371, 7458, and 757 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 62, - 41, and 103 respectively, compared to previous values of - 75, - 45, and 120. For PP, the current spreads were - 101, - 38, and 139 respectively, compared to previous values of - 97, - 35, and 132 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2061 yuan/ton, 5800 yuan/ton, 553 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6230 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes compared to the previous values [2] - **Spot Market**: In the LL spot market, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6350 - 6550, 6950 - 7450, and 6800 - 7050 respectively. In the PP spot market, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7050 - 7400, 6250 - 6450, and 6400 - 6550 respectively [2] News - On Friday (November 14), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.09 per barrel, up $1.40 or 2.39% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.71 - $60.65. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.39 per barrel, up $1.38 or 2.19% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.36 - $64.87 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP remained stable. Fundamentally, polyolefins follow the crude oil trend. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily released. Currently, the supply - demand pressure of polyolefins is temporarily limited. After a short - term rebound in the market, it may start to fluctuate in the future [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7009, 7075, and 7105 respectively, with increases of 24, 13, and 4, and percentage increases of 0.34%, 0.18%, and 0.06%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6685, 6765, and 6762 respectively, with increases of 28, 31, and 25, and percentage increases of 0.42%, 0.46%, and 0.37% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 212938, 21224, and 643 respectively, and the open interests were 512269, 66284, and 1678 respectively, with changes of - 7218, - 322, and 309. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 201901, 20539, and 557 respectively, and the open interests were 612658, 133945, and 7119 respectively, with changes of 1313, - 468, and 280 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 66, - 30, and 96 respectively, compared to previous values of - 77, - 39, and 116. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 80, 3, and 77 respectively, compared to previous values of - 77, - 3, and 80 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film are 2261 yuan/ton, 5985 yuan/ton, 543 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6450 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2245 yuan/ton, 6010 yuan/ton, 534 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6480 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: In the mid - stream, the current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 7000 - 7500 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7500 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6550 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Wednesday (October 29), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.48 per barrel, up $0.33 or 0.55% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.70 - $61.02. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.92 per barrel, up $0.52 or 0.81% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.92 - $65.37 [2]