2025.08. 25 本文字数：2854，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 曹璐 "牛市是真的来了吗？"这是当前每个投资者心中最火热，也最忐忑的问题。 随着上证指数连破3700、3800两道大关，续创十年新高，并向3900点关口冲击，两市成交额更是 在8月25日爆出3.18万亿元的"天量"，一场资金的狂欢似乎正在上演。 其中，资金入场核心通道ETF同步开启"高速吸金"模式。全市场ETF规模逼近5万亿元，单年增量 1.23万亿元创同期纪录，百亿元级ETF更是扩容至101只，其中行业主题类产品数量翻倍至20只。 然而，在市场一片沸腾之下，投资者的核心疑问无法回避：这场狂欢，究竟是可持续的牛市号角，还 是短期情绪的"虚火"？更关键的是，如果现在还想入场，科技成长、医药创新、传统制造……哪条赛 道才是好机会？ "在经济基本面依然偏弱的情况下，本轮市场的演绎确实已经明显脱离了基本面，水牛是目前宏观环 境下的必然结果。"金鹰基金权益投资部副总经理杨晓斌告诉第一财经，虽然市场依然存在不确定 性，股市短期涨幅过大也不排除可能会调整，但对市场的看法依然较为积极，也希望在目前时间点能 更抓大放小，对当前所处的大时代趋势有 ...

□本报记者张舒琳 上周，两市成交进一步活跃，赚钱效应累积与资金流入形成正向循环，市场持续火热，上证指数一举突 破3800点。上证科创板人工智能指数、中证芯片产业指数等领涨，多只ETF一周涨幅超过20%。 部分品种出现资金"撤退" 从资金流向来看，股市上行仍在吸引增量资金流入。上周，全市场ETF合计吸引资金净流入247.83亿 元。其中，券商相关ETF持续上涨，吸引大量资金涌入，国泰中证全指证券公司ETF净流入39.56亿元， 华宝中证全指证券公司ETF净流入20.83亿元。此外，中证500、上证50、创业板指相关ETF净流入居 前，中证500相关ETF合计净流入47亿元，上证50相关ETF合计净流入25.03亿元，创业板指相关ETF合 计净流入23.35亿元。细分化工、金融科技相关ETF合计净流入额均超过20亿元。 在港股ETF方面，恒生科技相关ETF合计净流入47.05亿元，港股通互联网相关ETF合计净流入34.25亿 元，香港证券相关ETF合计净流入24.07亿元，港股通创新药相关ETF合计净流入20.91亿元。 值得关注的是，一些涨幅较高的ETF产品出现了短线资金获利了结的迹象。例如，对于上周涨幅较高的 ...

Report Summary Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% to 3771.10 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06% to 11919.76 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.47% to 2595.47 points. The total trading volume of A-shares in the two markets was 2.4609 trillion yuan. The top-performing sectors were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (1.50%), petroleum and petrochemicals (1.39%), and beauty care (0.98%), while the worst-performing sectors were machinery and equipment (-1.08%), power equipment (-0.98%), and comprehensive (-0.73%) [2][6]. Stock ETFs - The top trading volume stock ETFs were Huaxia CSI A500 ETF (down 0.09% with a discount rate of 0.18%), Huaxia Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 ETF (unchanged with a discount rate of 0.07%), and Huatai-PineBridge CSI A500 ETF (up 0.18% with a discount rate of 0.32%) [3][7]. Bond ETFs - The top trading volume bond ETFs were Haifutong CSI Short-term Financing Bond ETF (up 0.02% with a discount rate of 0.00%), Bosera CSI Convertible and Exchangeable Bond ETF (up 0.31% with a discount rate of 0.52%), and Penghua ChinaBond 30-year Treasury Bond ETF (up 0.47% with a discount rate of 0.44%) [4][9]. Gold ETFs - Gold AU9999 rose 0.23% and Shanghai Gold rose 0.30%. The top trading volume gold ETFs were Huaan Gold ETF (up 0.27% with a discount rate of 0.23%), Huaxia Gold ETF (up 0.31% with a discount rate of 0.22%), and E Fund Gold ETF (up 0.27% with a discount rate of 0.21%) [12]. Commodity Futures ETFs - Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF fell 1.43% with a discount rate of -1.10%, Jianxin Yisheng Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Energy and Chemical Futures ETF rose 0.83% with a discount rate of 1.28%, and Dacheng Non-ferrous Metals Futures ETF fell 0.12% with a discount rate of -0.09% [15]. Cross-border ETFs - The previous trading day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.04%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.67%, the S&P 500 fell 0.24%, and the German DAX fell 0.60%. Today, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.24% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.43%. The top trading volume cross-border ETFs were E Fund CSI Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme ETF (down 0.78% with a discount rate of 0.28%), GF CSI Hong Kong Innovative Drugs ETF (up 0.95% with a discount rate of 2.13%), and Huaxia Hang Seng Tech ETF (down 1.32% with a discount rate of -0.44%) [17]. Money Market ETFs - The top trading volume money market ETFs were Huabao Tianyi ETF, Yin Hua Rili ETF, and Jianxin Tianyi Money Market ETF [19].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in stock ETFs indicates a growing market enthusiasm, but the actual scale increase remains modest, suggesting that a shift in investor expectations and momentum from major funds will take time to develop [1][4]. Group 1: ETF Scale Growth - On August 18, stock ETFs saw their total scale increase from 35,131.71 billion to 35,574.63 billion, marking a growth of 442.92 billion, or 1.26% [2]. - A total of 802 stock ETFs experienced scale growth, representing over 70% of the nearly 1,100 stock ETFs in the market, with 13 ETFs growing by more than 10 billion [2]. - Notable ETFs include Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, which grew by nearly 35 billion, and E Fund ChiNext ETF, which increased by over 30 billion [2]. Group 2: Trading Activity - On August 18, the trading volume for stock ETFs exceeded 1 trillion, with significant active buying and selling, particularly for E Fund Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme ETF, which had buy and sell amounts of 168.19 billion and 162.46 billion respectively [3]. - The average daily trading volume for stock ETFs reached 1,454.54 billion on August 18, a significant increase from previous weeks [6]. Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - Analysts suggest that the stock ETF market is showing signs of a trend reversal, with net inflows observed on August 18 after a prolonged period of outflows [4]. - The market is expected to gradually transition into a "slow bull" phase, driven by policy support and improving corporate earnings, contrasting with previous rapid market movements [7][8]. - The current market dynamics are characterized by a focus on high dividend and growth stocks, indicating a strategic shift in fund allocation [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the performance of the ETF fund market from August 11th to August 15th, summarizing the performance and capital flows of the overall ETF market, different popular sub - type ETFs, and innovative theme and sub - industry ETFs for investors' reference [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 ETF Market Overall Performance - **Market Performance**: Most stock ETFs rose this week. A - share Sci - tech/GEM ETFs had the largest increase, with an average increase of 7.18% for funds above a certain scale. In contrast, Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen thematic ETFs (mainly gold - stock ETFs) and A - share dividend ETFs declined, with average decreases of 0.31% and 0.28% respectively for funds above a certain scale. Commodity ETFs had the deepest decline, with an average decrease of 1.10% for funds above a certain scale [2][6]. - **Fund Flow**: Funds flowed significantly into bond ETFs and Hong Kong - stock TMT ETFs, with net inflows of 12.763 billion yuan and 11.672 billion yuan respectively for the whole week. Conversely, A - share TMT ETFs and A - share Sci - tech/GEM ETFs had significant outflows, with net outflows of 17.716 billion yuan and 16.618 billion yuan respectively for the whole week [3][8]. 3.2 Different Popular Sub - type ETF Fund Market Performance - **A - share ETFs**: Various sub - types of A - share ETFs, including broad - based index (full - market, large - cap/super - large - cap, small - and - medium - cap, Sci - tech/GEM), industry (TMT, manufacturing, consumption, medicine, cycle, finance and real estate), SmartBeta (value, growth, dividend, free cash flow), and theme ETFs, showed different performance in terms of weekly capital flow, weekly return, recent one - month return, and year - to - date return [16][17][18]. - **Hong Kong - stock ETFs**: Hong Kong - stock ETFs, including broad - based index, industry (TMT, mid - stream manufacturing, consumption, medicine, finance and real estate), SmartBeta (dividend), and theme ETFs, also had diverse performance in different aspects [31][32][33]. - **Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen ETFs**: Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen ETFs in the industry and theme categories presented different performance characteristics [36][37]. - **US - stock ETFs**: US - stock ETFs in broad - based index and industry categories showed their own performance trends [38][39]. - **Other QDII - ETFs**: Other QDII - ETFs (excluding Hong Kong - stock and US - stock ETFs) had specific performance in terms of capital flow and return [40]. - **Bond ETFs**: Bond ETFs had different capital flows and return rates [41]. - **Commodity ETFs**: Commodity ETFs, mainly gold and some futures ETFs, showed certain performance trends [43]. 3.3 Innovative Theme and Sub - industry ETF Fund Market Performance - **TMT Innovative Themes**: Indexes such as fintech, 5G communication, and artificial intelligence had significant weekly increases and year - to - date increases, and their representative ETFs also showed corresponding performance [45]. - **Consumption Sub - industries**: Indexes of sub - industries like household appliances, wine, and food and beverage had different weekly and year - to - date returns, and their representative ETFs followed suit [46]. - **Medicine Sub - industries**: Sub - industry indexes such as biotech, innovative drugs, and biomedicine had certain performance, and their representative ETFs showed similar trends [47]. - **New Energy Themes**: Indexes related to photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, etc. had different performance, and their representative ETFs reflected these trends [48]. - **Central and State - owned Enterprise Themes**: Indexes of central and state - owned enterprise themes had various performance, and their representative ETFs showed corresponding changes [49][50]. - **Stable Growth Themes**: Indexes of stable growth themes such as real estate, rare earths, and non - ferrous metals had different performance, and their representative ETFs followed [51]. - **Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen/Hong Kong - Stock Connect Sub - industries**: Indexes of sub - industries in this category had specific performance, and their representative ETFs showed similar trends [52]. - **Dividend/Dividend Low - Volatility Index Families**: Indexes in this family had different performance, and their representative ETFs showed corresponding changes [53]. - **GEM Index Families**: Indexes in the GEM index family had various performance, and their representative ETFs showed corresponding trends [55].

Core Viewpoint - As of August 15, the total margin balance of ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 100.148 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 0.173 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] ETF Financing and Margin Data - The financing balance of ETFs is 93.908 billion yuan, down by 0.18 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The margin balance for ETF short selling is 6.24 billion yuan, which has increased by 0.007 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Net Buy Data for ETFs - On August 15, 209 ETFs experienced net financing purchases, with the E Fund ChiNext ETF leading with a net purchase amount of 0.229 billion yuan [1] - Other ETFs with significant net purchases include: - Southern CSI 500 ETF: 0.221 billion yuan - E Fund CSI Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme ETF: 0.191 billion yuan - Huatai-PB Hang Seng Technology ETF: 0.141 billion yuan - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF: 0.097 billion yuan - Huabao CSI Financial Technology Theme ETF: 0.091 billion yuan - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF: 0.085 billion yuan [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market remained active from August 11 to August 15, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing near 3700 points, marking a new high since September 2021 [1] - Financial technology, securities, battery, and optical module sectors showed strong performance, while banking and dividend-themed ETFs weakened [1][2] - The total trading volume of ETFs approached 2 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase in trading activity [3] ETF Performance - Over 20 ETFs related to financial technology, securities, batteries, and optical modules rose over 10% last week, with individual stocks like Yingwei Ke, Xinyi Sheng, and Tonghuashun increasing over 20% [2] - The top-performing ETFs included those from Huaxia Fund, Bosera Fund, and E Fund, focusing on financial technology and new energy sectors [2] - Conversely, banking-themed ETFs experienced declines of around 3%, with some dividend and aerospace ETFs dropping over 1% [2] Fund Flow Trends - There is a noticeable trend of profit-taking in ETF funds, with significant outflows from ETFs like Huaxia's and Jiashi's technology-focused products, despite their price increases [3] - The total trading volume for stock and bond ETFs exceeded 500 billion and 700 billion yuan, respectively, with the E Fund's Hong Kong Securities ETF reaching a record weekly trading volume of nearly 120 billion yuan [3] - Funds have been flowing into leading broad-based and popular Hong Kong stock ETFs, indicating a shift in investor focus [3] Investment Strategy Shifts - The market has transitioned from a "bank + micro-disk" approach to pricing based on fundamental trends, particularly favoring growth sectors [4] - Analysts suggest a shift in investment strategies towards growth styles, with a notable switch between large-cap and small-cap stocks driven by valuation differences [4] - The focus is now on sectors with strong industrial trends, as growth leaders are attracting more investor attention due to their profitability potential [4] Future Market Outlook - Short-term market strategies may focus on "bull market synchronous assets," particularly in brokerage, insurance, military, and rare earth sectors [5] - The Hong Kong market is viewed positively, with a focus on pricing trends indicating it may offer better value in the short to medium term [5] - The market is currently experiencing a phase of concentrated hot spots across various sectors, with potential mainline directions including domestic technological breakthroughs and high global market share manufacturing [5]

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown significant activity, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3700 points, marking a new high since September 2021 [1] - Financial technology, securities, battery, and optical module sectors have performed strongly, while banking and dividend sectors have weakened [2][4] - There is a noticeable trend of profit-taking in ETF investments, with significant outflows from certain technology-focused ETFs [3][4] Market Performance - Over 20 ETFs related to financial technology and other growth sectors saw gains exceeding 10% last week, including those from major fund houses like Huaxia and E Fund [2] - Conversely, several banking and dividend-themed ETFs experienced declines of around 3% [2] ETF Trading Activity - The total trading volume of ETFs approached 2 trillion yuan, with stock and bond ETFs contributing over 500 billion and 700 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The E Fund's Hong Kong Securities Investment ETF reached a record weekly trading volume of nearly 120 billion yuan [3] Fund Flows - There has been a clear trend of profit-taking, with significant outflows from ETFs like Huaxia's STAR 50 and Jiashi's STAR Chip ETFs, despite their price increases [3] - Conversely, funds have flowed into broader market ETFs such as Huaxia's 50 ETF and others focused on non-bank financials and internet sectors [4] Investment Strategy Shifts - The market is shifting from a focus on "banking + micro盘" to a valuation based on fundamental trends, particularly in growth sectors [4] - Analysts suggest a "barbell strategy" is emerging, favoring growth stocks over traditional dividend-paying stocks [4] Future Market Outlook - The market may experience a shift in trading logic, moving from emotion-driven rapid increases to trends supported by fundamentals [5] - Key sectors to watch include technology breakthroughs, high global market share manufacturing, and potentially high-growth areas like pharmaceuticals and new consumption [5]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current ETF market has 1,262 products with a total scale of 4,773.495 billion yuan. Stock - type ETFs are the most numerous, accounting for 67.23% of the market scale. In the A - share market, the technology and high - end manufacturing sector has the highest trading heat, while the consumer sector has the most capital inflow. In the Hong Kong and global markets, the financial sector in the Hong Kong market has the highest trading heat, and the consumer sector in the Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen market has the most capital inflow [6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. ETF Market Overview 1.1 ETF Quantity Distribution - There are 1,262 ETFs in the current market, with a total scale of 4,773.495 billion yuan. Stock - type ETFs are the most numerous, with 1,005 products and a scale of 3,209.249 billion yuan, accounting for 67.23% of the market scale. Among stock - type ETFs, theme - index ETFs are the most numerous [10]. 1.2 ETF Tracking Index - This week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 had respective price changes of 2.37%, 3.88%, and 4.09%. Among the indices with corresponding ETFs, the Financial Technology index had the highest increase of 11.57%, while the 800 Bank index had the highest decline of 3.25% [13]. II. Equity ETF Valuation 2.1 A - share Market ETF Valuation Overview - Among the 30 indices with the highest tracking scale of ETFs in the A - share market, the current highest - valued indices are the Science and Technology Innovation 100, Science and Technology Innovation Chip, and Science and Technology Innovation 50. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, and Robot indices are at historically high valuations [19]. 2.2 Hong Kong and Global Market ETF Valuation Overview - Among the 20 indices with the highest tracking scale of ETFs in the Hong Kong and global markets, the current highest - valued indices are the Hong Kong Stock Innovation Drug (CNY), Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovation Drug, and Nasdaq Technology Market - Cap Weighted. The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect High - Dividend Low - Volatility Index are at historically high valuations [21]. III. A - share Market ETF 3.1 A - share Market ETF Sector Overview - In the A - share market, the technology and high - end manufacturing sector has the highest trading heat, with a daily average trading volume of 23.267 billion yuan. The consumer sector has the most capital inflow of 1.695 billion yuan, while the technology and high - end manufacturing sector has the most capital outflow of 14.517 billion yuan [26]. 3.2 A - share Market ETF Trading Heat - The most actively traded ETF in the A - share market is the Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF, with a daily average trading volume of 4.927 billion yuan. The top - ten ETFs in terms of daily average trading volume involve sectors such as science and technology innovation & entrepreneurship, finance, large - cap, technology and high - end manufacturing, and small - cap [30]. 3.3 A - share Market ETF Capital Flow - The A - share market ETF with the most capital inflow is the Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF, with an inflow of 2.302 billion yuan. The top - ten ETFs in terms of capital inflow involve multiple sectors. The ETF with the most capital outflow is the Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF, with an outflow of 6.556 billion yuan [35]. 3.4 A - share Market ETF Share Growth - By sector, the chemical sector has a relatively high share growth rate, while the media sector has a relatively high share reduction rate [37]. IV. Hong Kong and Global Market ETF 4.1 Hong Kong and Global Market ETF Overview - In the Hong Kong and global markets, the financial sector in the Hong Kong market has the highest trading heat, with a daily average trading volume of 26.458 billion yuan. The consumer sector in the Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen market has the most capital inflow, while the technology sector in the global market has the most capital outflow [41]. 4.2 Hong Kong and Global Market ETF Trading Heat - The most actively traded ETF in the Hong Kong and global markets is the E Fund CSI Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme ETF, with a daily average trading volume of 23.764 billion yuan. The top - ten ETFs in terms of daily average trading volume involve sectors such as finance, large - scale medical, and technology [43]. 4.3 Hong Kong and Global Market ETF Capital Flow - The Hong Kong and global market ETF with the most capital inflow is the GF CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non - Bank Financial Theme ETF, with an inflow of 294.9 million yuan. The top - ten ETFs in terms of capital inflow involve multiple sectors. The ETF with the most capital outflow is the E Fund CSI Overseas Internet ETF, with an outflow of 451 million yuan [50]. V. Industry Congestion Tracking - This week, the transportation industry has the highest congestion, followed by non - bank finance, petroleum and petrochemicals, and light manufacturing. Compared with last week, the congestion of the steel industry has increased significantly, while that of the comprehensive industry has decreased. The congestion of the steel industry is at a one - year high, while that of the comprehensive, coal, and machinery industries is historically low [55]. VI. WTS ETF Recommendation - The screening rule is to use the WTS AI model to score indices, select those with scores above 0.8, find the corresponding ETFs, select those with a daily average trading volume of over 30 million yuan in the past 30 days, and choose the ones with a lower IOPV premium rate for the same index [59].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing active trading, particularly in leading broad-based ETFs, with significant fluctuations in holdings of major stocks like SMIC, reflecting the impact of fund inflows and outflows [1][2][3]. Group 1: ETF Holdings and Performance - The Huaxia SSE STAR 50 ETF increased its holdings in SMIC by 399,200 shares on July 11, but subsequently reduced its holdings by 651,800 shares on August 1 [1][2]. - From July 12 to August 1, the Huaxia SSE STAR 50 ETF rose by 4.20%, while experiencing a net outflow of over 3.1 billion yuan, ranking third among all ETFs in terms of outflows [3]. - As of July 31, SMIC was the largest weighted stock in the STAR 50 Index, with a weight of 10.09%, and the ETF held a market value of 8.44 billion yuan in SMIC shares, the highest in the market [3]. Group 2: SMIC's Financial Performance - SMIC reported a revenue of 2.209 billion USD for Q2 2025, a 1.7% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 16.2% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 20.4% [4]. - The company expects a revenue growth of 5% to 7% for Q3 2025, with a projected gross margin between 18% and 20% [4]. - SMIC's capacity utilization rate was 92.5% in Q2 2025, with an 8-inch standard logic monthly capacity of 991,000 wafers, indicating strong demand that exceeds supply [4]. Group 3: Semiconductor Industry Outlook - The semiconductor cycle is currently in an upward trend, driven by strong growth in AI and a recovery in the industrial sector [5][6]. - AI is expected to be the primary growth driver for the semiconductor industry, with increasing demand from cloud AI and accelerating terminal AI applications [6]. Group 4: Passive Investment Trends - Passive investment, particularly through ETFs, is gaining significant influence, with leading broad-based ETFs becoming major shareholders in key stocks like SMIC [7][8]. - As of Q1 2025, four of SMIC's top ten shareholders were ETFs, highlighting the growing role of passive investment in the market [7]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards passive investment strategies, which are expected to play a crucial role in enhancing corporate governance and shareholder returns [8].