周期成长轮动演绎，冲突政策交织影响 公募基金指数跟踪周报（2026.02.24-2026.02.28） 分析师：孙书娜 分析师登记编码：S0890523070001 电话：021-20321306 邮箱：sunshuna@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522090001 电话：021-20321067 邮箱：wanghua@cnhbstock.com 研究助理：张琦炜 邮箱：zhangqiwei@cnhbstock.com 2026 年 03 月 02 日 证券研究报告 | 公募基金周报 021-20515355 2026/2/26》2026-02-26 2、《地缘关税扰动并存，市场结构 趋势延续—公募基金指数跟踪周报 （2026.02.09-2026.02.13）》2026- 02-24 换 — 公 募 基 金 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 （2026.02.02-2026.02.06）》2026- 02-09 2026/2/9》2026-02-09 得 期 待 — 公 募 基 金 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 （2026.01.26-2026.01.30）》2026- 02-02 投资要点 分 ...

分析师：孙书娜 登记编号：S0890523070001 分析师：王骅 登记编号：S0890522090001 研究助理：张琦炜 投资要点 权益市场回顾与展望： 春节后第一周（2026.02.24-2026.02.27）市场温和反弹，各宽基指数纷纷反弹至前期高 点附近。受节后一线城市上海地产政策松绑的提振和伊朗地缘局势的扰动，顺周期题材中地产、化工等行业在 涨价预期下上涨。AI等成长方向开始从算力紧张向外溢至上游半导体零部件等供应链环节，电子布、电容电阻 等细分行业也持续上演涨价行情。消费方向则在长假集中兑现后开始回调。 在具体政策方向落地前，市场或将围绕两会主题进行博弈，包括消费、地产和创新等领域，叠加美国总统特朗 普计划于3月底访华，在此之前宏观氛围总体偏乐观。 固收市场回顾与展望： 上周（2026.02.24-2026.02.28）债市继续震荡运行，1年期国债收益率上行0.23BP至 1.32%，10年期国债收益率下行1.46BP至1.78%，30年期国债收益率上行2.66BP至2.27%。尽管节后债市止盈卖 出意愿有所抬升、周内债市产生波动，但周六突发的地缘冲突导致资金涌入债市避险，到期收益率转而回落。 ...

Core Insights - The first batch of four mutual recognition funds has been approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) following the new regulations released on January 1, 2025, marking a significant step in cross-border investment opportunities for Chinese investors [1][2][4]. Fund Details - The approved funds include two equity funds: Morgan Asia High Dividend Fund and Taiping Greater China New Power Equity Fund, both with a management fee of 1.5% [2][3]. - The two bond funds are Fidelity Global Investment Fund - Hong Kong Bond Fund and Huaxia Select RMB Investment Grade Income Fund, both with an A-class management fee of 0.75% [2][3]. - HSBC and Bank of China Hong Kong are the custodians for these funds, with specific funds assigned to each [2][3]. Regulatory Changes - The new mutual recognition fund regulations have relaxed the sales ratio limit for cross-border funds from 50% to 80%, enhancing the sales potential in the mainland market [7][8]. - The regulations also allow for a broader range of fund types to be included under mutual recognition, providing more options for investors [7]. Market Context - The approval of these mutual recognition funds is seen as a crucial step for Fidelity's cross-border business strategy in China, responding to the growing demand for global asset allocation among Chinese investors [4]. - The mutual recognition framework aims to meet the cross-border wealth management needs of investors in both mainland China and Hong Kong [5]. Market Performance - As of January 2026, Morgan's mutual recognition funds have reached a scale of 84 billion RMB, holding over 40% market share, indicating strong performance in the market [10][12]. - The market has shown a trend where equity funds are attracting significant inflows, while bond funds are experiencing outflows due to increased market risk appetite [9].

Core Viewpoint - The approval of new mutual funds under the Hong Kong Mutual Recognition Fund scheme marks a significant development in cross-border investment opportunities between Hong Kong and mainland China, enhancing the asset allocation options for investors [1][3]. Group 1: New Fund Approvals - Several mutual funds, including Morgan Asia Equity High Dividend Fund and Fidelity Global Investment Fund - Hong Kong Bond Fund, have been approved under the new mutual recognition regulations effective from January 1, 2025 [1]. - This approval represents the latest batch of mutual recognition funds since the implementation of the new regulations [2]. Group 2: Fund Flow and Market Dynamics - As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative net outflow of funds from Hong Kong to mainland China reached approximately 1260.24 billion RMB, maintaining a level above 1200 billion RMB for six consecutive months [4]. - The mutual recognition mechanism has led to a diversification of asset allocation awareness among investors, allowing foreign asset management firms to introduce overseas strategies and products into the Chinese market [5][6]. Group 3: Regulatory Changes and Market Growth - The new mutual recognition regulations optimize the rules by relaxing sales ratio limits, allowing management functions to be delegated to overseas affiliates, and expanding the types of funds eligible for recognition [5]. - The sales of Hong Kong mutual funds in mainland China have seen rapid growth, with net outflows increasing from 426.65 billion RMB at the end of December 2024 to 1260.24 billion RMB by January 31, 2026 [6]. Group 4: Market Competition and Trends - The Hong Kong mutual fund market is characterized by a strong presence of leading firms, with Morgan Asset Management holding over 40% market share, while competition remains intense among mid-tier firms [8]. - The current market shows a divergence where equity products are attracting significant inflows, while bond products are experiencing outflows, indicating shifting investor preferences [8].

Core Viewpoint - The approval of the first four mutual recognition funds marks a significant step in the implementation of the revised Hong Kong Mutual Recognition of Funds regulations, which will enhance cross-border investment opportunities for mainland Chinese residents [1] Group 1: Fund Approvals - The first batch of four mutual recognition funds approved includes Morgan Asia High Dividend Fund, Fidelity Global Investment Fund - Hong Kong Bond Fund, Huaxia Select RMB Investment Grade Income Fund, and Taiping Greater China New Power Equity Fund [1] - This approval is the first since the implementation of the revised regulations on January 1, 2025, which increased the cross-border sales limit for mutual recognition funds from 50% to 80% [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The approval of these mutual recognition funds is expected to enrich the toolkit for cross-border investments, providing new options for mainland Chinese residents to participate in overseas capital markets and optimize their asset allocation [1]

Group 1 - The internationalization of public funds has accelerated in 2023, with numerous fund companies establishing subsidiaries to expand overseas operations [1][2] - Yifangda Fund has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission to set up a company in Macau, aiming to enhance asset management services for investors in the Greater Bay Area [1] - The establishment of overseas subsidiaries is becoming a key vehicle for public funds to deepen international cooperation, as seen with the collaboration between Fuguo Asset Management and Malaysian entities to launch ETF products [1][2] Group 2 - The number of overseas subsidiaries for fund companies continues to grow, with Xingsheng Global Fund's Singapore subsidiary approved to enhance its research and investment capabilities [2] - ETFs are emerging as a leading product for international expansion, with several ETFs launched in overseas markets, including the first ETF tracking the CSI Dividend Index in Singapore [2] - Public funds are actively enriching their cross-border product lines, with various funds recently submitted for approval, including those focused on bonds and global investments [2] Group 3 - QDII funds are evolving their strategies, with many products now covering multiple markets, enhancing risk resilience through regional diversification [3] - The expansion of QDII quotas has provided strong support for the internationalization of public funds, with over 20 fund managers receiving new quotas in June [3]

Core Insights - 华夏基金（香港） has been focusing on innovative financial products and positioning itself as a differentiated Chinese institution in the market [1][3] - The CEO, 甘添, believes that the new technology revolution is reshaping the financial industry, providing strategic opportunities for asset management institutions in Hong Kong [1][3] - The offshore RMB bond market is expected to experience explosive growth in the next three to five years, with 华夏香港 already taking the lead in this area [1][5] Company Strategy - 华夏香港 has launched several innovative products, including the first RMB-denominated public fund in Hong Kong and the largest offshore RMB money market ETF, which has grown to a scale of 4.97 billion RMB within two years [3][4] - The company has also introduced the first pure Hong Kong stock biotech ETF and the largest ESG broad-based ETF in Asia (excluding Japan), showcasing its commitment to differentiation in the ETF market [4] Market Outlook - 甘添 predicts that the offshore RMB funds pool could reach approximately 5 trillion RMB by 2030, driven by the internationalization of the RMB and the growth of the dim sum bond market [6][8] - The dim sum bond market has seen significant growth, with the market size increasing from 254 billion RMB in 2020 to nearly 1 trillion RMB currently, indicating a strong demand for these bonds [6][7] Investment Trends - The yield on dim sum bonds is currently more attractive compared to domestic bonds, leading to increased interest from domestic investors facing asset allocation challenges [7][8] - Major domestic enterprises are increasingly using dim sum bonds to replace USD-denominated bonds, reflecting a shift in financing strategies [7][8] Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government is actively supporting the internationalization of the RMB, which is expected to enhance the development of the offshore RMB market [6][8] - Recent policy optimizations, such as the cross-border wealth management connect, are facilitating domestic investors' access to offshore RMB assets, providing a stable funding source for the offshore market [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - 华夏基金（香港） is positioning itself as a differentiated Chinese financial institution, focusing on innovative financial products and capitalizing on emerging market opportunities, particularly in the offshore RMB bond market [1][3][7]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Innovation - 华夏基金（香港） has adopted a forward-looking approach, launching several innovative products, including the first RMB-denominated public fund in Hong Kong, which targets investment-grade bonds [3][7]. - The company has successfully launched the largest offshore RMB money market ETF globally, with a scale of 4.97 billion RMB, demonstrating its ability to identify and capitalize on market trends [3][4]. - The firm has also introduced the first pure Hong Kong stock biotechnology ETF, which has gained significant traction among both domestic and international investors [4][5]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Growth Potential - 甘添, CEO of 华夏基金（香港）, predicts explosive growth in the offshore RMB bond market over the next three to five years, with the offshore RMB fund pool expected to reach approximately 5 trillion RMB by 2030 [1][7]. - The point bond market has seen substantial growth, with its scale increasing from 254 billion RMB in 2020 to nearly 1 trillion RMB currently, driven by attractive yields compared to domestic bonds [8][9]. - The company anticipates that the increasing participation of domestic institutions in the offshore RMB market will be fueled by favorable policies and the growing appeal of point bonds [9][10]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Dynamics - The Chinese government is actively supporting the internationalization of the RMB, which is expected to enhance the development of the offshore RMB market and create a stable liquidity supply channel [7][9]. - Recent policy changes, such as the relaxation of cross-border investment channels, are expected to facilitate domestic investors' access to offshore RMB assets, further boosting market growth [9][10]. - The shift in the Hong Kong stock market's pricing power, with increasing domestic investment, indicates a changing landscape where local investors are becoming more influential [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - 华夏基金（香港） is positioning itself as a differentiated Chinese financial institution, focusing on innovative financial products and capitalizing on emerging market opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Innovation and Market Positioning - 华夏香港 has adopted a forward-looking approach, launching several first-of-their-kind financial products in the Hong Kong market, including the first RMB-denominated public fund and the largest offshore RMB money market ETF [2][3]. - The company has successfully identified and capitalized on market trends, such as the growth of the offshore RMB bond market, by launching products like the 华夏精选人民币投资级别收益基金 during a period of currency volatility [2][3]. Group 2: Offshore RMB Bond Market - 甘添 predicts explosive growth in the offshore RMB bond market over the next three to five years, with the offshore RMB fund pool expected to reach approximately 5 trillion by 2030 [2][5]. - The point bond market has seen significant growth, with its scale increasing from 2.54 trillion in 2020 to nearly 10 trillion currently, driven by a decrease in RMB financing costs [6][7]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The point bond market offers attractive yields compared to domestic bonds, with yields for similar maturity bonds being 30-50 basis points higher than their domestic counterparts [6][7]. - Major domestic enterprises are increasingly participating in the point bond market, with significant issuances from companies like 百度 and 蒙牛乳业, indicating strong market demand [7][8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The influx of domestic capital into the Hong Kong stock market is shifting the pricing power, with local investors now holding a significant portion of shares [8]. - The anticipated introduction of a mechanism allowing mainland investors to directly invest in Hong Kong stocks using offshore RMB is expected to enhance participation and pricing power in the market [8].