Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in demand for cross-border ETFs among domestic investors is accompanied by significant premium pricing, raising concerns about market overheating and potential risks for investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of November 18, 19 public fund companies have issued over 330 risk warning announcements regarding 34 cross-border investment products, indicating a heightened awareness of premium risks [1]. - The average premium rate for 192 cross-border ETFs in the market is 0.79%, with 32 products exceeding 1% and 2 products surpassing 10%, highlighting a significant disconnect between price and value [1]. - The Nikkei 225 index has recently declined from historical highs, and major U.S. stock indices have also experienced notable drops, exacerbating the risks associated with high premiums [1]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Professor Tian Lihui from Nankai University emphasizes that while cross-border ETFs are essential for global asset allocation, the current premium phenomenon suggests that investor enthusiasm may have surpassed rational valuation [2]. - Analysts suggest that the cash creation and redemption mechanism of cross-border ETFs, combined with foreign exchange quota restrictions, can lead to mismatches in supply and demand, driving up secondary market prices and resulting in high premiums [4]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term risks, the long-term demand for cross-border ETFs remains strong, with a year-to-date growth of 116.86%, reaching 919.949 billion yuan, and a net inflow of over 34 billion yuan in November alone [4]. - Industry experts advocate for a rational investment framework and ongoing investor education to mitigate the risks associated with high premiums and to promote a long-term perspective on cross-border ETF investments [4].

Core Viewpoint - Investors should be cautious of the premium risk associated with cross-border ETFs, as recent market conditions indicate a potential overvaluation of these products [1][4]. Group 1: Premium Risks - Multiple public fund institutions have issued warnings regarding premium risks for their cross-border ETFs, particularly those tracking overseas indices like the US and Japan [1][2]. - As of November 18, 34 cross-border investment products from 19 public fund institutions have issued over 330 premium risk alerts, with specific ETFs like the Huaxia Nikkei 225 ETF showing significant premium levels [2][4]. - The average premium rate for 192 cross-border ETFs was 0.79%, with 32 ETFs exceeding 1% and 2 ETFs surpassing 10% [4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Major overseas indices are experiencing corrections, with the Nikkei 225 index down 3.22% and the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones indices also showing declines in November [4]. - Despite short-term risks, there remains a strong long-term demand for cross-border ETFs, with a net inflow of 34.105 billion yuan in November and a 116.86% increase in total scale to 919.949 billion yuan this year [2][4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Analysts emphasize the importance of rational investment frameworks, suggesting that while cross-border ETFs can diversify risks, the focus should be on enhancing research capabilities and investor education rather than merely expanding scale [4][5]. - Investors are advised to maintain a net asset value orientation and a long-term perspective to benefit from global investments, especially in volatile market conditions [5].

Core Insights - The recent surge in cross-border ETFs has led to significant premium risks, with 33 products issuing over 500 premium risk alerts since the fourth quarter began, particularly in US and Japan-themed products [2][4] - The Invesco Great Wall Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted ETF has seen its IOPV premium rate exceed 10% for 25 consecutive trading days, indicating a persistent high premium status [2][5] - The overall scale of cross-border ETFs has increased by nearly 117% year-to-date, significantly outpacing the growth of A-share ETFs, which grew by approximately 28% in the same period [6][7] Premium Risk Alerts - As of November 18, 20 cross-border ETFs issued premium alerts, with the previous trading day seeing 22 alerts, highlighting a trend of frequent premium warnings [3][4] - The frequency of premium alerts has become normalized, with 11 products issuing over 20 alerts each since the start of the fourth quarter [4][5] - The premium situation is not isolated, as multiple products tracking popular indices like Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225 are experiencing similar high premium rates [3][4] Market Dynamics - The premium phenomenon reflects a mismatch between QDII quotas and investor demand, alongside factors like index scarcity and foreign exchange volatility, contributing to supply-demand imbalances [6][7] - The cross-border ETF market has seen explosive growth, with the total scale reaching approximately 920.29 billion yuan as of November 17, compared to 424.22 billion yuan at the end of the previous year [6][7] - The number of products exceeding 10 billion yuan in scale has doubled, indicating a strong demand for cross-border investment options [7] Institutional Innovations - Recent regulatory changes have expanded the cross-border investment channels, with six new ETF products included in the "Southbound ETF Connect" list, marking a significant development in the market [8][9] AI Market Sentiment - The discussion around whether the AI sector is experiencing a bubble or genuine growth has intensified, with market volatility increasing due to geopolitical tensions and economic factors [10][11] - Despite short-term fluctuations, many institutions maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook on the US stock market, suggesting that the underlying trends in technology and AI remain strong [11][12]

本文字数：3350，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 曹璐 "特此提示投资者关注二级市场交易价格溢价风险，盲目投资可能遭受重大损失。"近期，这样的风险提示公告在跨境ETF中密集刷屏。据第一财经初步统 计， 四季度以来，有33只产品合计发布超过500条溢价风险提示，其中11只产品预警次数超过20次，美日主题产品成为溢价"高发区" 。 2025.11. 18 多只产品保持高溢价状态，甚至频频出现临时停牌情况。如景顺长城纳斯达克科技市值加权ETF的IOPV溢价率连续25个交易日保持在10%以上，仅11月 就连续12个交易日发布溢价风险提示及停牌的公告。 与高溢价相伴生的，是跨境ETF赛道的爆发式增长，年内整体规模增幅近117%，远超A股ETF同期增速 。 随着近来海外市场出现震荡调整，叠加市场对 AI泡沫的热议，这场跨境投资热究竟是资金对海外资产的迫切追逐，还是暗藏风险的"价格泡沫"？ 美日跨境ETF"高烧不退" 11月18日早盘，景顺长城基金一则公告揭开了当前跨境ETF市场的热度一角。公告内容显示，景顺长城纳斯达克科技市值加权ETF的二级市场交易价格 明显高于基金份额参考净值，出现较大幅度溢价，因此开市停牌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in premiums for several cross-border ETFs has raised concerns among fund companies, prompting multiple warnings about the risks associated with high premiums in the market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Premiums and Risk Warnings - As of November 14, several cross-border ETFs, including E Fund MSCI US 50 ETF and Huaxia Nomura Nikkei 225 ETF, have reported premiums exceeding 6%, with E Fund's premium reaching 6.66% [2][3]. - Fund companies have issued multiple risk warnings, advising investors to be cautious of the high premium status and the potential for significant losses if they invest blindly [2][3]. - The high premiums are attributed to supply-demand imbalances in the secondary market, exacerbated by insufficient QDII quotas, which prevent fund companies from arbitraging to correct price discrepancies [1][5]. Group 2: Investor Interest and Market Dynamics - There remains a strong interest in cross-border ETFs among investors, particularly in newly launched products like the Brazilian cross-border ETFs, which saw rapid sales [4][5]. - The popularity of certain ETFs is linked to their holdings in well-known technology companies such as Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft, providing investors with opportunities to participate in these technology sectors [3][4]. - The expansion of cross-border ETF offerings is driven by both management initiatives and investor demand, as the current range of available ETFs in China is relatively limited [4][5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The trend of investing in international markets is growing, with an increasing number of funds targeting regions like Germany, France, and Southeast Asia, thereby diversifying the investment landscape [5]. - The recent adjustments to the Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF list indicate a broader acceptance and integration of cross-border investment products in the Chinese market [5]. - Analysts suggest that the fundamental cause of premium occurrences in QDII ETFs is the short-term supply-demand mismatch, which can fluctuate based on market sentiment and external factors [5].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant rebound from October 20 to October 24, with the CSI 300 index rising by 3.24%, and the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices increasing by 8.05% and 7.27% respectively [1][2] - The Hong Kong tech stocks also saw a rebound, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 5.2% during the same period [1] ETF Market Performance - The ETF market saw a strong recovery, with a total increase of 1630.76 billion yuan, marking the highest weekly growth since September [2][3] - Stock ETFs led the growth, increasing by 1068 billion yuan, with broad-based ETFs contributing over 70% of this increase [2][3] - Cross-border ETFs also reversed their recent decline, with money market ETFs recovering from earlier losses [1][2] Key ETF Highlights - The CSI 300 index-linked ETFs were the main focus, with a weekly increase of 343 billion yuan, bringing the total scale to over 1.2 trillion yuan [1][4] - Major fund managers like Huaxia Fund and E Fund saw their ETF scales increase by over 300 billion yuan each, with Huaxia Fund's ETF management scale surpassing 900 billion yuan [1][7] Gold ETFs - Gold ETFs were among the products that saw a decrease in scale, but there was a notable trend of "buying the dip," with over 5 billion yuan net subscriptions for two prominent gold ETFs [1][11] ETF Scale and Growth - As of October 25, the total scale of all ETFs reached 56.9 trillion yuan, with stock ETFs accounting for 37.2 trillion yuan [3][4] - Year-to-date, the total increase in ETF scale has reached 1.96 trillion yuan, with stock ETFs contributing 823.99 billion yuan [3][4] Fund Management Rankings - The top 20 ETF management firms saw significant growth, with Huaxia Fund and E Fund leading the way, each increasing by over 300 billion yuan this week [7][9] - Notably, the performance of traditional fund managers like Huatai-PB and Jiashi Fund was also strong, with each increasing their ETF scales by over 100 billion yuan [7][9] ETF Index Performance - Among the top 20 indices linked to ETFs, only one index, the SGE Gold 9999 index, saw a decrease in scale, while others like the CSI 300 and Hang Seng Tech indices experienced significant recoveries [4][6] - The CSI 300 index-linked ETFs have seen a year-to-date growth of 218.69 billion yuan, while the Hang Seng Tech index-linked ETFs have increased by 96.51 billion yuan [7][6]

Core Insights - The Nikkei 225 index and the Korean Composite Index both reached historical highs on October 21, with increases of 0.27% and 0.24% respectively, closing at 49,316.06 points and 3,823.84 points [1] Group 1: High Premium Risks in Cross-Border ETFs - Multiple fund companies, including Huaxia Fund, Huaan Fund, and Invesco Great Wall Fund, issued risk warnings regarding high premium rates in their cross-border ETFs, indicating significant deviations from the fund's reference net asset value [2][3] - The Invesco Great Wall Nasdaq Technology ETF (QDII) reported a premium rate as high as 16.89% as of the date of the report [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The surge in the Japanese and U.S. stock markets has attracted substantial domestic capital into ETFs, while tight quotas for QDII funds have limited primary market subscriptions, pushing secondary market prices higher [3] - Investors' lack of familiarity with cross-border product rules has exacerbated premium fluctuations, leading to irrational trading behaviors [3] Group 3: Industry Response and Recommendations - As of October 21, 16 fund management companies have issued premium risk warnings for 25 products, with 10 of these being cross-border products primarily investing in the U.S. and Japan [4] - Fund managers have indicated that if premium rates do not decrease, they may take measures such as applying for temporary trading halts to warn the market of risks [4] - Experts suggest that high premiums indicate a significant departure from net asset values, posing multiple risks, and recommend that investors maintain rationality and control their positions to avoid potential losses [4]

Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index closed at a record high of 49,316.06 points on October 21, 2025, with an intraday high of 49,945.95 points, marking a year-to-date increase of 23.62% [2] - Several ETFs tracking the Nikkei 225 index showed significant premiums, with the Huaxia Nomura Nikkei 225 ETF having a premium rate of 5.28% as of October 21 [2] - Trading activity for related ETFs was robust, with the Huaxia Nomura Nikkei 225 ETF achieving a turnover rate of 161.05% and a trading volume of 2.391 billion [2] Political Developments - Fumio Kishida, the president of the Liberal Democratic Party, won 237 votes in the first round of the House of Representatives' prime ministerial election, securing the position of Japan's 104th prime minister [2] ETF Market Dynamics - The five ETFs related to Japanese stocks reached a total scale of 7.119 billion, reflecting a growth of over 60% from 4.382 billion at the beginning of the year [5] - Recent trading price premiums for the Huaxia Nomura Nikkei 225 ETF and others have prompted risk warnings regarding their market prices exceeding net asset values [4][5] Economic Outlook - Analysts expect that Kishida's macroeconomic policies may positively influence nominal GDP growth, which could benefit the Japanese stock market [5] - The outlook for the Japanese market remains optimistic, driven by factors such as corporate profit growth, improved corporate governance, and increased participation from foreign investors [6] - Sectors like finance, construction, and utilities are benefiting from digital transformation and infrastructure demand, presenting attractive investment opportunities [6]

Core Insights - The Nikkei 225 index has reached a historic high, surpassing 49,000 points for the first time, closing at 49,185.50 points with a 3.4% increase on October 20 [4] - Several ETFs linked to the Nikkei index have seen significant price increases, prompting a warning from Huaxia Fund regarding premium risks in the secondary market [2][5] Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index's rise is attributed to political developments, including a potential coalition agreement between the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party [4] - On the same day, Huaxia's Nikkei ETF led the market with a 6.57% increase, while other ETFs also performed well, with trading volumes showing high activity [5][6] ETF Growth - The total size of five ETFs related to Japanese stocks has increased by nearly 60% year-to-date, reaching 6.867 billion yuan as of October 17 [7] - The E Fund's Nikkei 225 ETF has seen the largest growth, increasing by 144%, while Huaxia's ETF grew by nearly 70% [7] Economic Factors - The rise in the Nikkei index is linked to favorable corporate fundamentals and external factors such as the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, which lower funding costs and attract investment to Japan [7][8] - Japan's low interest rate policy and a weak yen have also contributed to the attractiveness of the stock market, benefiting export-oriented companies [8] Future Outlook - Analysts expect continued support for the market from improved earnings, structural reforms in Japanese companies, and potential stock buybacks [8] - Political uncertainty remains a concern, but the potential election of a pro-stimulus candidate could provide further positive momentum for the market [8]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On August 13, the total net inflow of cross-border ETFs reached 906 million yuan, with a cumulative net inflow of 20.62 billion yuan over the past five trading days, indicating strong investor interest in these funds [1]. Fund Inflows - A total of 40 cross-border ETFs experienced net inflows on August 13, with the top performer being the GF CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF (513750), which saw an increase of 528 million shares and a net inflow of 906 million yuan [1][3]. - The GF CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF had a latest scale of 14.879 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.78% increase in value [3]. Fund Outflows - Conversely, 50 cross-border ETFs recorded net outflows on the same day, with the leading outflow being the E Fund China Concept Internet 50 ETF (513050), which saw a reduction of 309 million shares and a net outflow of 454 million yuan [4][5]. - The E Fund China Concept Internet 50 ETF had a latest scale of 33.942 billion yuan, with a 4.06% increase in value despite the outflow [5]. Performance Overview - The top 10 ETFs by net inflow included several funds focused on technology and healthcare sectors, indicating a trend towards these industries among investors [3][5]. - The top 10 ETFs by net outflow highlighted a mix of technology and healthcare funds, suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment or profit-taking in these areas [4][5].