Core Insights - The convertible bond market has become a significant source of excess returns for "fixed income +" fund managers in 2023, with several convertible bond-themed funds reporting returns exceeding 15% year-to-date as of August 8 [1][2] - There is a noticeable divergence in fund managers' strategies regarding convertible bonds, with some reducing their positions while others are increasing them, reflecting a re-evaluation of valuation systems and investment strategies [1][3] Group 1: Performance of Convertible Bonds - Multiple convertible bond-themed funds have performed well in 2023, with specific funds like Southern Changyuan Convertible Bond A and Bosera Convertible Bond Enhanced A achieving returns over 20% [2] - The average price of convertible bonds is currently high, leading to challenges for fund managers in deciding whether to chase high prices or take profits [2][3] Group 2: Fund Manager Strategies - Many fund managers have explicitly stated in their reports that they are reducing their convertible bond positions, with examples including Hai Fu Tong and Hua An Convertible Bond, which saw significant decreases in their convertible bond allocations [3][4] - Conversely, some funds like Fu Guo Convertible Bond and Dongfang Hong Ju Li have increased their convertible bond holdings, indicating a split in strategy among fund managers [3][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The convertible bond market is experiencing structural changes due to a decrease in bank convertible bond supply, prompting funds to seek alternative assets to fill the gap in their portfolios [4][5] - The overall allocation to convertible bonds in fixed income portfolios has decreased, with a shift towards sectors like non-bank financials and healthcare [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Fund managers express concerns about the high average prices of convertible bonds, suggesting that the probability of achieving positive returns in the next six months is lower when prices are at current levels [3][4] - Despite the high valuations, some fund managers remain optimistic about the convertible bond market, citing the potential for continued demand driven by favorable equity market conditions [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in the convertible bond market, with the China Convertible Bond Index reaching a ten-year high, driven by strong performance in the A-share market and a favorable investment environment for convertible bonds [1][2][3]. - The China Convertible Bond Index has seen a year-to-date increase of 7.18%, with a notable rise of over 22% since September 24, 2024, indicating strong market momentum [2]. - The convertible bond market is characterized by low volatility and low drawdown, attracting continuous inflow of new capital, which is expected to further enhance investment experiences [2][3]. Group 2 - Several funds tracking convertible bonds have reported positive returns this year, with the top-performing fund, China Europe Convertible Bond A, achieving a return of 13.11% [4][5]. - A total of 14 convertible bond funds have recorded returns exceeding 10%, showcasing the strong performance of this asset class [4][5]. - The performance of convertible bond ETFs has also been commendable, with returns exceeding 7% for the Bosera China Convertible Bond ETF and over 5% for the Haifutong Shanghai Investment Grade Convertible Bond ETF [5]. Group 3 - The supply-demand imbalance in the convertible bond market is a key factor supporting the rising valuations, with supply expected to contract while demand continues to grow [2][3]. - Historical data indicates that most convertible bonds exit through conversion to equity rather than actual repayment, suggesting manageable credit risk in the current market environment [3]. - The market's confidence in convertible bonds has strengthened due to reduced risks of delisting or default, further enhancing investor sentiment [3].

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market is gaining significant attention as it reaches a ten-year high, driven by a combination of strong equity market performance and a supply-demand imbalance in the market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The China Convertible Bond Index has continuously set new ten-year highs, reaching a peak of 116.05 points on July 1, with a year-to-date increase of 7.18% and over 22% since September 24, 2024 [4]. - The convertible bond market has shown low volatility and low drawdown this year, indicating a potential influx of new capital and a favorable investment experience that may attract more funds [4]. Group 2: Fund Performance - All funds tracking convertible bonds have reported positive returns this year, with the highest return exceeding 13%. Notable funds include China Europe Convertible Bond A at 13.11% and several others with returns above 12% [2][6][8]. - The performance of convertible bond ETFs has also been strong, with returns exceeding 7% for the Bosera China Convertible Bond ETF and over 5% for the Hai Fu Tong Shanghai Investment Grade Convertible Bond ETF [9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current strong performance of convertible bonds is attributed to the "debt protection and equity appreciation" characteristics, making them an attractive asset class amid an asset shortage [2]. - The supply-demand imbalance is expected to continue supporting the valuation of convertible bonds, with supply shrinking since 2024 and increasing demand from new capital [4][5].

Group 1 - The overall performance of A-shares has been lackluster this year, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index declining, while the convertible bond market has shown strong performance, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising over 3% year-to-date, significantly outperforming A-share indices [1] - As of May 25, 2023, 10 bond funds (Class A shares) have seen net values increase by over 7% this year, with notable funds including Bosera Convertible Bond Enhanced A, China Europe Convertible Bond A, and Huabao Convertible Bond A [1] - Some non-convertible bond funds also heavily invest in convertible bonds, such as Huashang Fengli Enhanced Open A, which has seen a net value increase of 11.45% this year, ranking first among bond funds [1] Group 2 - Private equity firms are also heavily invested in convertible bonds, with data showing that by the end of last year, nine hundred billion private equity firms collectively held 49 convertible bonds among the top ten holders, with a total market value of approximately 3.181 billion yuan [2] - Specific private equity firms like Ruijun Asset and He Sheng Asset hold more than five convertible bonds each, with significant market values, including Ruijun Asset holding 19 convertible bonds with a total market value of about 2.545 billion yuan [2] - Despite the overall strength of the convertible bond market, some bonds have been downgraded due to deteriorating fundamentals, with several bonds being placed on watch lists this year due to issues such as performance losses and increased debt pressure [2] Group 3 - Convertible bonds have been recognized as an important investment category for "fixed income plus" funds this year, benefiting from an optimized supply-demand structure, with a focus on low price and low valuation strategies [3] - Current market analysis indicates that the prices of balanced and debt-oriented convertible bonds are at neutral points from a long-term perspective, while equity-oriented convertible bonds still have room for price increases [3] - The overall supply of convertible bonds has weakened in recent years, and in a low-interest-rate environment, the motivation for companies to finance through convertible bonds may decrease, potentially impacting future valuations [3]