Group 1 - Gold prices have surged after three months of volatility, with London gold reaching $3546.9 per ounce and COMEX gold hitting $3616.9 per ounce, both marking historical highs [1] - Domestic gold prices in China also increased, with AU9999 gold exceeding 809 yuan per gram and major jewelry brands reporting prices of 1053 yuan per gram for gold jewelry [1] Group 2 - Two main factors have driven the recent rise in gold prices: weak U.S. economic data bolstering expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve due to political interventions [2][3] - The market anticipates a significant increase in the likelihood of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, especially if President Trump successfully influences the board's composition [2][3] Group 3 - Gold-related ETFs have seen substantial gains, with gold stock ETFs rising over 60% year-to-date, and individual stocks like Lao Pu Gold and China National Gold International increasing over 200% [4] - The demand for gold in China remains high, with a significant supply gap, leading to increased imports and a focus on enhancing domestic gold production capabilities [4] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's current dovish stance and ongoing gold purchases by central banks are expected to provide strong support for gold prices in the medium term [5][6] - The trend of central banks increasing their gold reserves continues, with China's central bank reporting a rise in gold holdings for nine consecutive months [6] Group 5 - The potential impact of stablecoin legalization by the U.S. government on dollar credibility and gold prices is a point of concern, as it could either support or undermine gold's role as a hedge against currency devaluation [7]

市场观点方面，过往一周国际黄金市场震荡走升，在前周非农数据公布后，贵金属市场迎来情绪拐点。 周内公布的美国7月ISM非制造业PMI下降至50.1，预期51.5，前值50.8，需求、新订单、就业等分项走 弱，但物价分项走高，显现出一定的滞胀结构。此外，美国海关和边境保护局的一份裁定函称自瑞士进 口的金条也将被征收对等关税，引起市场供求预期的大幅波动，COMEX黄金期货相较于伦敦金的溢价 一度在盘中达到115美金，这也导致纽约金价再度刷新历史新高，激励市场情绪。不过，上周五白宫已 经澄清，黄金作为特别商品并没有被加征关税，纽约金和伦敦金的价差应声收敛至60美元。实际上，黄 金作为货币属性极强的商品，目前还没有对黄金加征关税的国家。 美国对等关税落地后，关税本身的不确定性降低，但还有美国对俄罗斯及包括中印在内购买俄罗斯原油 的国家征收二级关税的进展值得后续关注。 最后是美联储官员的人事变动进展，特朗普任命现任白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰接替刚刚空 出的美联储理事席位，随着特朗普对美联储人事掌控力的增加及明年本身到任换届的影响，使得部分现 任委员态度也转向鸽派，市场降息预期维持扩张。 上周（8.4~8.8）黄金 ...