Core Viewpoint - The domestic precious metal futures market is experiencing a decline, while international precious metals are showing slight gains, indicating mixed market sentiment influenced by external economic factors [1][3]. Domestic Precious Metals Market - As of July 28, the main contract for Shanghai gold is priced at 773.64 CNY per gram, down 0.48%, and Shanghai silver is at 9186.00 CNY per kilogram, down 1.98% [1]. - The opening price for Shanghai gold was 772.82 CNY, with a high of 775.84 CNY and a low of 770.58 CNY [2]. - The market is showing a bearish trend, with the recent price movements reflecting a lack of strong upward momentum [5]. International Precious Metals Market - COMEX gold is priced at 3342.00 USD per ounce, up 0.10%, and COMEX silver at 38.40 USD per ounce, up 0.18% [1]. - The opening price for COMEX gold was 3321.10 USD, with a high of 3344.00 USD and a low of 3303.00 USD [2]. Market Influences - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is creating uncertainty, with traders speculating on potential rate cuts, which may be suppressing gold prices [3]. - Recent data from the CFTC shows a significant increase in gold and silver positions, indicating growing interest in these assets despite current price declines [3]. - The U.S. labor market remains strong, as evidenced by a decrease in unemployment claims, which may influence the Fed's decision on interest rates [4]. Technical Analysis - COMEX gold has seen a decline for three consecutive days, closing at 3338.5 USD per ounce, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [5]. - The market is characterized by a lack of consensus on key factors such as tariff policies and the potential for Fed rate cuts, leading to increased volatility [5]. - Silver is supported by the performance of gold and expectations of a return to a favorable gold-silver ratio, making it an attractive investment option [6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Hong Kong stock market and its potential for revaluation in the context of global economic conditions and fiscal policies [1][2][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Global Economic Support**: Global fiscal expansion is expected to support economic growth in the second half of 2025, despite trade headwinds from rising tariffs [1][4]. - **Tariff Impact**: The weighted average tariff in the U.S. rose to 10% in June 2025, with potential increases to 20% if new tariffs are fully implemented, which could marginally slow global trade [3][5]. - **Hong Kong Asset Appeal**: The expectation of a stronger Renminbi (RMB) is likely to enhance risk appetite for Hong Kong assets, benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar [1][10]. - **Stablecoin Opportunities**: The development of stablecoins is anticipated to create new opportunities in Hong Kong's financial ecosystem, increasing market liquidity and product diversity [1][13]. - **Market Sentiment Recovery**: The Hong Kong stock market is expected to see reduced negative pressures in Q3 2025, with potential early market recovery driven by new tariff negotiations and the rise of competitive Chinese industries [1][15]. Additional Important Content - **Daily Trading Volume**: The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is projected to approach HKD 250 billion, positively correlated with the strength of the RMB [3][26]. - **Foreign Capital Inflow**: There has been a notable inflow of foreign capital into the Hong Kong market, particularly in the context of AI and IPOs, although not as significant as in 2017-2018 [18]. - **Southbound Capital**: Southbound funds now account for 40% of trading in connect stocks, indicating a balanced importance of domestic and foreign capital in the Hong Kong market [19]. - **Banking Sector Recovery**: Major banks in Hong Kong are expected to see a recovery in performance, with valuations currently low compared to international peers [33]. - **Brokerage Sector Growth**: The brokerage sector has experienced significant growth in IPO and refinancing activities, with expectations of continued performance improvement [34]. - **Real Estate Trends**: The Hong Kong real estate market shows signs of stabilization after a prolonged downturn, with recent increases in transaction volumes and rental prices [36][40]. Conclusion - The Hong Kong stock market is entering a new phase of revaluation, supported by global fiscal policies, potential currency appreciation, and the development of new financial products. The outlook for various sectors, including banking, brokerage, and real estate, appears positive, with significant opportunities for investors to capitalize on emerging trends and market dynamics [1][11][24].

Group 1: Overview of Major Assets - In Q2 2025, A-shares rebounded to 3400 points, with bond rates declining and commodities experiencing fluctuations after a significant drop [2][10] - The A-share market saw broad index gains, with micro-cap stocks surging, led by financial and growth sectors, particularly in defense, military, and banking industries [3][14] - The bond market experienced a narrow decline in yields, with credit spreads initially widening before stabilizing [30][34] - Commodity markets showed mixed performance, with gold fluctuating at high levels and oil prices experiencing a rise followed by a decline [32][46] - Global stock indices mostly rose, with the Nasdaq leading at a 17.7% increase, while the AH premium index fell to a five-year low [2][10] Group 2: A-share Market Dynamics - The A-share market's fundamentals showed weakness in Q2, with three major economic indicators declining for two consecutive months [3][14] - Macro liquidity indicators indicated a slight decrease in social financing, with a reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates implemented in May [3][14] - Micro-funding trends showed fluctuations in southbound capital and ETF performance, with a notable increase in newly established funds in June [3][14] - The industry landscape highlighted a resurgence in the "lipstick economy" and a growing trend in innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating a competitive edge in global markets [3][14] Group 3: International Market Influences - The tariff situation led to increased global uncertainty, with liquidity risks observed in early April, followed by stabilization in May as tariff negotiations eased [4][19] - The U.S. economy faced rising inflation and potential stagflation risks, with inflation expectations reaching new highs in May [4][20]

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing internationalization of finance, with countries and regions pushing for stablecoins, benefiting wallet and payment processing institutions [1] - Large enterprises in traditional payment sectors are expected to gain significantly from the development of stablecoins, especially those collaborating with Ant Group [1] - As the trend of stablecoin development rises, regulatory bodies are encouraged to consider ways to promote the development of the digital yuan, which could also benefit domestic companies related to digital yuan initiatives [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the increasing use of stablecoins, combined with the U.S. government's need to manage its substantial issuance of treasury bonds, is likely to lead to the promotion of stablecoins related to the Chinese yuan, significantly expanding the future development space for stablecoins [1] - Stablecoins offer advantages in cross-border payments, such as lower costs and faster transaction speeds compared to traditional banks, which may disrupt traditional banking operations in this area as stablecoins evolve [1] - If banks issue their own stablecoins, it could facilitate the transfer of traditional deposits to stablecoins, reducing banks' funding costs and expanding net interest margins, while also lowering compliance costs due to the use of blockchain technology [1] - In the current financial environment in China, banks remain central to financial stability, and the future development of stablecoins is expected to occur within the banking sector, potentially enhancing the overall competitiveness of the banking industry [1] Group 2 - The financial ETF tracks an index of 180 financial stocks selected from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, reflecting the overall performance of publicly listed companies in the financial sector, including banking, insurance, and securities [1]

Core Insights - The report by Huatai Securities analyzes the rapid development of stablecoins, their potential impact, and future trends, indicating that stablecoins are moving from the periphery of innovation to the mainstream financial system, which may profoundly affect the global monetary landscape [1][3]. Group 1: Market Growth and Projections - The market size of stablecoins has surged from $5 billion in 2020 to $250 billion currently, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 100%, and transaction volumes nearing $37 trillion [3]. - It is conservatively estimated that in 10 years, the stablecoin market could reach $4 trillion, increasing its share of global off-chain settlement from 0.4% to 3%-4% [3]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has optimistic projections, suggesting that by the end of 2029, the market value of stablecoins could reach between $3.5 trillion and $4 trillion [3]. Group 2: Dominance and Future Trends - In the short term, dollar-pegged stablecoins dominate the market due to their first-mover advantage, but in the medium to long term, network effects may lead to the rise of euro, yen, pound, and even renminbi stablecoins [3]. - If stablecoin reserves include credit-creating assets like bonds, it could trigger credit expansion similar to "shadow banking" [3]. Group 3: Regulatory and Risk Considerations - Although stablecoins are not government-backed currencies, changes in the risk premium of underlying assets (like U.S. Treasuries) could lead to liquidity risks, especially as U.S. fiscal sustainability and external account balance issues become more pronounced [4]. - For Hong Kong dollar stablecoins, it is recommended to expand the reserve asset pool, particularly by enhancing the allocation of high-liquidity fixed-income products beyond cash [4]. - The report emphasizes that the rise of stablecoins is both a product of technological innovation and a catalyst for changes in the global monetary system, with regulatory coordination and risk management of underlying assets being crucial for their development [4].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.59% at 24,223.12 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.13% at 5,389.56 points, and the National Enterprises Index down 0.78% at 8,796.99 points [1] - Major tech stocks generally declined, with Alibaba down 2.28%, JD Group down 1.79%, and Xiaomi down 1.11%. However, Netease rose by 1.05% [1] Company News - XPeng Motors reported that its delivery volume has exceeded 30,000 units for seven consecutive months as of 2025 [2] - Morgan Stanley upgraded the rating of Wei Long Delicious to "Overweight" [3] - Junshi Biosciences received a clinical trial application acceptance notice from the National Medical Products Administration for JT118, aimed at preventing monkeypox virus infection [3] - Vanke Enterprise sold 30.1 million A-shares, raising a total of RMB 198 million [4] - Horizon Robotics plans to issue 681 million shares, aiming to raise approximately HKD 4.674 billion, at a discount of about 6.85% from the previous closing price [4] Institutional Insights - Guotai Junan noted that the narrative of asset revaluation in China has gained traction this year, with the Hong Kong stock market showing a volatile upward trend, although valuations remain relatively low. Future trade environments may disrupt the market, but domestic policy efforts could drive fundamental recovery [5] - CITIC Securities reported that Hong Kong stocks saw a 3.4% year-on-year revenue increase and an 8.5% profit increase in 2024, indicating a significant improvement compared to 2023. The performance of technology and finance sectors was particularly strong, while the real estate and some consumer-related companies still showed weak performance [6]

Core Viewpoint - Increasing numbers of payments are moving away from the dollar-dominated centralized monetary system to digital payment systems like Bitcoin, highlighting a shift in the financial landscape [1] Group 1: Stablecoin Development - Stablecoins are characterized as "dual-sided" currencies that combine features of both centralized and digital currencies [1] - Policies aimed at promoting stablecoin development should focus on strengthening the stability mechanisms of stablecoins to enhance market trust [1] - Recent regulatory policies on stablecoins are centered around building this trust consensus [1] Group 2: Comparison with Traditional Currency - In the short term, the growth of stablecoins is unlikely to lead to significant increases in investments in the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - In the medium to long term, the robust development of stablecoins could allow fiat currencies, such as the dollar, to benefit from the market expansion of Bitcoin [1] - Stablecoins can provide a digital layer to fiat currencies, bridging the gap between centralized credit currencies and digital currencies [1]