Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, the oversupply pressure in 2026 is the most core driver of oil prices. Non - OPEC+ supply will increase by 1.2 million barrels per day. The return of the remaining 1.65 million barrels per day of OPEC+ production will be a key variable. Short - term fluctuations may be dominated by the Iran situation and the Russia - Ukraine war, while the medium - term downward trend remains [4]. - For PX & PTA, PX supply is expected to increase. PTA is still de - stocking, but terminal demand is weakening. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with the cost side in the short term [4]. - For MEG, affected by the coal sector, the ethylene glycol盘面 rebounded. However, the medium - term supply surplus situation is difficult to change, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. - For BZ & EB, pure benzene has high inventory pressure and is expected to fluctuate widely. Styrene is expected to be slightly stronger than pure benzene in the long - term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - In 2026, non - OPEC+ crude oil supply will increase by 1.2 million barrels per day, with certain increments from Brazil, Guyana, and Canada. The return of the remaining 1.65 million barrels per day of OPEC+ production will be a key variable for the market direction. Trump said Venezuela will supply 50 million barrels of oil to the US [4]. PX & PTA - PX: Domestic and overseas PX plants are operating stably. PX load can be effectively maintained. PXN has risen to a seasonal high, and supply is expected to increase. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 89.12%, up 0.72% from last week; the Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 79.18%, up 0.41% from last week. The PX - naphtha spread is at a high level. New PX capacity will be added in the second half of next year, and there are many maintenance plans in the second quarter [4][8]. - PTA: This week, domestic PTA plants have basically no changes. PTA is still de - stocking, but terminal demand is weakening. The PTA spot market price this week is 5,067 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate is 77.41%, up 3.21% from last week. The in - factory inventory days are 3.60 days, down 0.05 days from last week. The processing fee is 339 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last week [4][13]. MEG - Affected by the coal sector, the ethylene glycol盘面 rebounded. The domestic ethylene glycol comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 63.06%, down 0.1% from last week. The coal - based ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate is 62.09%, up 1.61% from last week. The production profit is - 867 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton month - on - month. The arrival of goods has risen to over 170,000 tons again, and the port inventory in the East China region is 690,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from the previous period. The medium - term supply surplus situation is difficult to change [5][18]. BZ & EB - Pure benzene: The port inventory has further accumulated to 318,000 tons, up 18,000 tons from last week. The downstream demand is weak, and the supply - demand pattern is loose, expected to fluctuate widely. The pure benzene开工 rate is 74.38%, down 0.8% from last week [5][27][28]. - Styrene: The开工 rate has rebounded slightly from the bottom, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The downstream 3S trends are differentiated. The long - term 3S capacity is expanding while the new styrene capacity is limited, and it is expected to be slightly stronger than pure benzene. The styrene开工 rate is 70.92%, up 0.69% from last week, and the port inventory is 132,300 tons, down 6,500 tons from last week [5][27][28]. Polyester and Terminal Weaving - The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the domestic polyester industry is 87.16%, up 0.22% from last week. The inventory levels of polyester staple fiber and filament have increased slightly. The开工 rate of sample enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving is 57.89%, down 1.66% from the previous data. The average terminal weaving order days are 8.68 days, down 0.72 days from last week. The average terminal weaving finished product inventory level is 27.57 days, an increase of 0.60 days from last week [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are affected by the warm commodity market but constrained by the weak reality. They are supported by costs but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of export expectations, and are expected to maintain a volatile trend [3] - The iron ore market has a neutral fundamental situation. High supply and rigid demand are in balance, and prices are expected to move in a volatile manner [22] - For coal and coke, the import pressure in January may ease. The price of coking coal may rebound if the resumption of domestic mines falls short of expectations. The supply - demand structure of coke may improve if the iron - making production of downstream steel mills increases rapidly [33] - Ferroalloy prices may be suppressed by corporate hedging when they rebound to a certain level, but the downside is limited due to cost support [48] - The over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying, and the demand expectation is weakening. High inventory restricts the price [63] - For glass, the cold - repair of production lines before the Spring Festival may affect long - term pricing, and the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested [86] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3100 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan from the previous day), and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3221 yuan/ton (down 56 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads also showed changes [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions had slight fluctuations. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different contracts and regions also changed. For example, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 200 yuan/ton on December 31, 2025, up 13 yuan from the previous day [9][11] - **Other Ratios**: The volume - screw difference, rebar - iron ore ratio, and rebar - coke ratio were relatively stable on December 31, 2025, compared to the previous day [15][19] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts showed small changes. For example, the 01 contract closed at 805 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan from the previous day). The basis of different contracts also changed [23] - **Fundamental Data**: As of December 26, 2025, the daily average pig iron production was 226.58 tons (up 0.03 tons week - on - week), the 45 - port desilting volume was 315.06 tons (up 1.61 tons week - on - week), and the 45 - port inventory was 15858.66 tons (up 346.03 tons week - on - week) [27] Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: On December 31, 2025, the month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. The coking profit on the disk decreased, and the ratios of ore - coke, screw - coke, and carbon - coal also changed [36] - **Spot Prices and Profits**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions were relatively stable. The import profits of different types of coal and the export profit of coke showed some fluctuations [39] Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron**: On December 31, 2025, the basis of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 22 yuan/ton (up 78 yuan from the previous day), and the month - to - month spreads also changed. The spot prices in different regions were stable or had small increases [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 80 yuan/ton (up 22 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads and spot prices in different regions also changed [50][52] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts decreased. The month - to - month spreads changed significantly. For example, the month - to - month spread (9 - 1) increased by 25 yuan, with a growth rate of 17.61% [64] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were relatively stable, with only slight changes in some regions [64] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts were basically unchanged. The month - to - month spreads and basis in different regions changed slightly [87] - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions of glass showed fluctuations. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on December 26, 2025, was 105 [88]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are supported by the cost side but constrained by weakening demand and potential tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - Iron ore has both upward and downward drivers and is expected to trade in a range, with limited upside after valuation repair [21] - As terminal winter storage approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve, and the coke valuation repair drive may weaken [31] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upside and downside space [48] - With the strengthening expectation of new soda ash capacity coming online, the market is in surplus, and prices are under pressure [62] - Some glass production lines are expected to cold repair before the Spring Festival, affecting long - term pricing, and the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested [85] Summary by Categories Steel Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3097, 3118, and 3167 respectively; hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3288, 3283, and 3296 respectively [4] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3318 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton [8][10] Ratios - The ratios of 01, 05, and 10 rebar to 01, 05, and 09 iron ore were all 4; to 01, 05, and 09 coke were all 2 on December 26, 2025 [18] Iron Ore Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 801.5, 783, and 761 respectively [22] Fundamentals - On December 26, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 226.58 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 15858.66 tons [25] Coking Coal and Coke Futures Spreads - On December 26, 2025, the spreads of coking coal 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 were 174, - 80, and - 94 respectively; for coke were 224.5, - 76.5, and - 148 respectively [35] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1600 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton [38] Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - On December 26, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 72, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5350 yuan/ton [49] Silicon Manganese - On December 26, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 100, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5590 yuan/ton [50] Soda Ash Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1200, 1258, and 1121 respectively [63] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, and the light - soda market price was 1250 yuan/ton [63] Glass Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1057, 1160, and 936 respectively [86] Spot Sales - On December 25, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 102, and in Hubei was 97 [87]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are supported by cost at the bottom but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - Iron ore shipments remain high, with non-mainstream mines as the main source of growth, exerting significant supply pressure and capping price upside. However, iron ore also has upward drivers, and is expected to trade within a range with limited upside after valuation repair [21] - As terminal winter storage approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve, and the downside of the coking coal futures may be limited due to the relatively high basis. After the third round of coke price cuts, the cost of dry quenched coke warehouse receipts is about 1700 - 1720, and the driving force for coke valuation repair may weaken temporarily [31] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upside potential. The demand for ferroalloys is gradually weakening as downstream hot metal production continues to decline. Ferroalloys may follow steel price movements, and while the upside is limited, the downside is also supported by cost [48] - With the increasing expectation of new soda ash production capacity, the expectation of oversupply is intensifying, and the futures price is breaking through the cost. The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further as glass cold repairs accelerate. High inventories in the upstream and midstream restrict the price [65] - From December to before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to undergo cold repairs, which may affect far - month pricing and market expectations. The near - month 01 contract will follow the reality (delivery logic) and be mainly driven by warehouse receipt games, which may become clearer in late December. Currently, the high inventory in the glass midstream needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [89] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3121, 3136, and 3173 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3287, 3285, and 3301 respectively [4] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and other regions were 3327, 3320, 3130, etc. respectively; the aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and other regions were 3270, 3260, etc. respectively [8][10] - **Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 01 - 05 month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil were - 15 and 2 respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 37 and - 16 respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were 52 and 14 respectively. The 01, 05, and 10 contract spreads between hot - rolled coil and rebar were 166, 149, and 128 respectively [4][15] Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 798, 779.5, and 758 respectively; the 01, 05, and 09 contract bases were - 6.5, 11.5, and 33.5 respectively [22] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special were 787, 867, and 669 respectively [22] - **Fundamentals**: As of December 19, 2025, the daily average hot metal production was 226.55, the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63, and the 247 - steel mill inventory was 8723.95 [25] Coal and Coke - **Futures Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coking coal were 165, - 80, and - 85 respectively; the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coke were 219, - 74.5, and - 144.5 respectively [34] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1600, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 [37] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 76, the 01 - 05 spread was - 80, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5330 [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 88, the 01 - 05 spread was - 70, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5570 [50] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 soda ash contracts were 1184, 1241, and 1117 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 57, 124, and - 67 respectively [66] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the heavy - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1300, 1400, etc. respectively; the light - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1250, 1350, etc. respectively [66] Glass - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 glass contracts were 1048, 1145, and 941 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 97, 204, and - 107 respectively [90] - **Spot Sales**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions showed different trends [91]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are supported by the cost side but suppressed by weakening demand and potential tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - After macro - events are settled, the trading logic of iron ore returns to fundamentals. With restrained shipments, steel mills' restocking needs, and coking coal price concessions, the downside space of iron ore prices is expected to be limited [20] - As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the inventory structure of coking coal is expected to improve. Coke spot still has room for price cuts from a valuation perspective, and attention should be paid to the progress of the steel mills' third - round price cut [29] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are currently weak. Although the futures prices rebounded due to relevant policies, the rebound may stimulate enterprises to hedge and suppress prices [45] - With the strengthening expectation of new capacity production, the over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying. The weakening demand from glass and high inventories restrict the price of soda ash [59] - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may undergo cold - repair, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. Currently, high intermediate inventories and off - season demand put pressure on the spot market [82] Summary by Directory Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3120, 3119, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3276, 3269, and 3282 yuan/ton respectively [4] - The month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different changes compared to the previous day [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis** - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions had minor changes on December 19, 2025. For example, the rebar summary price in China was 3325 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton [8][10] - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed slightly [8][10] - **Other Ratios** - The 01, 05, and 10 contract ratios of rebar to iron ore were all 4; the ratios of rebar to coke were all 2 on December 19, 2025 [17] Iron Ore - **Price Data** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 798, 780, and 758 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 1, 2.5, and 3 yuan/ton respectively [21] - The basis of different contracts showed a downward trend [21] - **Fundamental Data** - The daily average pig iron output was 226.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons; the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81.21 tons [24] Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios** - On December 19, 2025, the spreads of coking coal and coke contracts showed different changes compared to the previous day. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 195 yuan/ton [32] - The coking profit, mine - coke ratio, etc. also changed [32] - **Spot Prices and Profits** - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had minor changes. The immediate coking profit was 24 yuan/ton [35] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron** - On December 19, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 90 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 48 yuan/ton; the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5300 yuan/ton [46] - **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 82 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 28 yuan/ton; the silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5500 yuan/ton [47] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 1120, 1176, and 1236 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 17, 17, and 14 yuan/ton respectively [60] - The month - spreads also changed [60] - **Spot Prices and Basis** - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained stable. The basis of soda ash in different regions showed a downward trend [60] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of glass 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 941, 1041, and 1138 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 12, 21, and 18 yuan/ton respectively [83] - The month - spreads and basis of glass contracts changed [83] - **Sales and Production Data** - The sales - to - production ratios of glass in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, etc. showed different trends in December 2025 [84]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2506 will maintain a weak and volatile trend. The main reasons are the uncertainty of OPEC+'s production plan for June in the May meeting, which increases concerns about oversupply, and the reduction in oil demand due to power outages in Spain and Portugal, along with the release of strategic oil reserves by the Spanish government [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents - **Price and Trend** - The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract closed down 1.15% at 488.5 yuan/barrel overnight on Monday [5]. - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2506 are all weak and volatile, with a reference view of weak operation [1][5]. - **Driving Logic** - The OPEC+ May meeting's uncertainty about the June production plan has led to concerns about increased oversupply pressure [5]. - Power outages in Spain and Portugal caused several refineries to close. Spain will release three - day strategic oil reserves due to about one - tenth of European oil consumption in these two countries, resulting in weakened demand and expected supply increase [5].