3月2日，英伟达官宣两大涉CPO（共封装光学）合作：该公司与光通信巨头Lumentum、Coherent达成战 略协议，明确向两家公司各投资20亿美元，并签下巨额采购承诺与未来产能使用权。 记者丨孙燕 编辑丨卜羽勤 张伟贤 金珊 "光互连技术和封装集成对于人工智能工厂的持续扩展至关重要，可以提高大规模人工智能网络的能效 和弹性。"英伟达在新闻稿中表示，这两大技术解锁了人工智能工厂之间的超高带宽、高能效连接，是 人工智能基础设施下一阶段的基础。 去年，英伟达发布首份CPO官方报告，宣布2026年将在AI数据中心全面应用CPO技术，其Quantum-X InfiniBand与Spectrum-X以太网平台将通过硅光集成。 此番英伟达投资两家企业并提前锁定产能，也意味着全球最高算力集群对CPO技术路线的最终确认。 从服务器间互联到芯片间互联 随着AI集群从万卡级向十万卡级演进，传统的电互连技术正逼近物理极限。面对这一瓶颈，业界已达 成"电算光传"的共识，即用电进行计算、用光进行传输。 目前在高算力光连接场景中，可选方案包括可插拔光模块、NPO（近封装光学）和CPO（共封装光学） 等。 而传统可插拔光模块存在功耗高、 ...

3月2日，英伟达官宣两大涉CPO（共封装光学）合作：该公司与光通信巨头Lumentum、Coherent达成战 略协议，明确向两家公司各投资20亿美元，并签下巨额采购承诺与未来产能使用权。 "光互连技术和封装集成对于人工智能工厂的持续扩展至关重要，可以提高大规模人工智能网络的能效 和弹性。"英伟达在新闻稿中表示，这两大技术解锁了人工智能工厂之间的超高带宽、高能效连接，是 人工智能基础设施下一阶段的基础。 去年，英伟达发布首份CPO官方报告，宣布2026年将在AI数据中心全面应用CPO技术，其Quantum-X InfiniBand与Spectrum-X以太网平台将通过硅光集成。 此番英伟达投资两家企业并提前锁定产能，也意味着全球最高算力集群对CPO技术路线的最终确认。 从服务器间互联到芯片间互联 随着AI集群从万卡级向十万卡级演进，传统的电互连技术正逼近物理极限。面对这一瓶颈，业界已达 成"电算光传"的共识，即用电进行计算、用光进行传输。 目前在高算力光连接场景中，可选方案包括可插拔光模块、NPO（近封装光学）和CPO（共封装光学） 等。 而传统可插拔光模块存在功耗高、信号损耗大、带宽受限等痛点，NPO选择" ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略|点评报告 2026 年 3 月 4 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会精选 ——观点全追踪（3 月第 3 期） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]郑恺 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260515090004 | | SFC CE No. BUU989 | | 021-38003559 | | zhengkai@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 李璟菲 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523030005 | | 021-38003805 | | lijingfei@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 陈昕 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522080008 | | SFC CE No. BWV823 | | 010-59136699 | | gfchenxin@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，李璟菲并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | | 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | [联系人： Table_Contacts] 毕露露 bilulu@gf.com.cn 972918 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on **炬光科技 (Juguang Technology)**, a company operating in the **optical communication** and **semiconductor** sectors, with a particular emphasis on its **OCS (Optical Communication Systems)** business segment [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Valuation Breakdown**: The company’s valuation is segmented as follows: - Plug-and-play modules: €60-70 million - OCS: €100-120 million - CPO (Chip-on-Board): €150 million - Other businesses: €100 million - Total estimated valuation: €450 million [1] - **Market Potential**: The total addressable market (TAM) for the industry in 2027 is projected to be €60-70 million. Assuming a 15% market share, this translates to a net profit of €2-3 million, leading to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20-25x, resulting in a valuation of €60-70 million [1]. - **Comparative Valuation**: Compared to other OCS companies, Juguang Technology is considered relatively undervalued. Other OCS companies are typically valued based on their end-state estimates, with projections for 2030 estimating 300,000 OCS units. If Juguang captures a 30% market share, with a unit value of €12,000-€13,000 and a net profit margin of 30%, this could yield profits of €3-4 million, leading to a valuation of approximately €100-120 million at a PE of 25-30x [1]. - **Competitive Landscape**: The competitive environment may be better than expected, with the market not fully pricing in the potential for scaling up. The company is well-positioned in the "out" domain and is expected to have similar potential in the "up" domain [1]. - **Profit Projections**: - For the "out" domain, with a forecast of 100,000 units in 2027, a unit value of €50,000, a 20% market share, and a 30% net profit margin, the projected profit is €3 million, leading to a valuation of €120 million at a PE of 40x [2]. - For 2030, with a forecast of 300,000 units and a unit value of €40,000, the projected profit is €7-8 million, resulting in a valuation of €150 million at a PE of 20x [2]. - **Stability in Related Industries**: Traditional industrial and semiconductor sectors are stabilizing, with automotive applications and healthcare growing at around 10%. Consumer electronics are expected to start contributing to revenue from Q3 2026 [2]. - **M&A Impact**: The negative impact of mergers and acquisitions is expected to diminish, with the SMO production line successfully relocated from Switzerland to Shaoguan, achieving profitability. The Heptagon acquisition is anticipated to break even within 6-8 quarters post-acquisition [2]. - **Market Sentiment and Performance**: The current market sentiment is cautious regarding the company's performance. However, the presence of CPO beta is expected to provide ongoing support for the stock price. The period before April is seen as relatively safe, with expectations of increased revenue from optical communications in the second half of the year, which could lead to profitability [2]. Additional Important Points - **Investment Strategy**: The suggested trading strategy involves buying during significant dips and smaller dips, with opportunities arising from daily long lower shadows or short-term corrections. Continuous monitoring and attention are recommended [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report by Guosheng Securities analysts argues that market concerns regarding CPO technology replacing pluggable optical modules are based on a misunderstanding of industry fundamentals, leading to irrational market valuations [1] Group 1: CPO vs. Pluggable Modules - CPO and pluggable optical modules are not mutually exclusive but can develop in parallel, with pluggable modules remaining the mainstream solution for "scale-out" interconnections in data centers for the next two to three years [2] - CPO technology is primarily suited for "scale-up" scenarios within cabinets, promoted by chip manufacturers like Nvidia, and is not intended to replace existing market solutions [2] - CSP manufacturers are not planning large-scale deployments of CPO technology, indicating that pluggable modules will continue to dominate the market [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Technology Barriers - Concerns about ecosystem exclusion, where chip manufacturers and TSMC collaborate on CPO technology while excluding optical module manufacturers, are unfounded [3] - The dependency of CPO technology on silicon photonics capabilities actually strengthens the competitive position of leading optical module manufacturers, who have already invested in relevant technology [3] Group 3: Market Structure and Trading Dynamics - Recent volatility in the optical module sector is attributed to a concentrated trading structure that requires time for optimization and self-correction [4] - Strong fundamentals have led to high visibility in the performance of optical module manufacturers, attracting significant institutional investment and resulting in concentrated holdings [4] - The rapid influx of capital has created instability in holdings, making them sensitive to negative news and market shifts, which can exacerbate stock price volatility [5][6] - The sector is expected to stabilize as the performance of optical module manufacturers is gradually released, leading to a more convergent understanding of the market [6]

Group 1 - In early 2026, technology stocks are becoming a focus for institutional investors driven by sectors such as commercial aerospace, AI applications, and semiconductors [1] - Over the past month, 148 brokerages have conducted research on more than 560 listed companies, marking a 26% increase compared to the same period last year [2] - Major companies attracting attention include Daikin Heavy Industries, JinkoSolar, and Nari Technology, with Daikin leading with 49 institutional inquiries [2] Group 2 - Institutional investors are conducting in-depth inquiries focusing on industry prosperity and overseas expansion, providing key signals for future growth [3] - Daikin Heavy Industries is focusing on overseas markets for offshore wind power, particularly in Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, and Poland, which are expected to have good development prospects [4] - The emphasis on technology transfer and the challenges faced in the industry chain are becoming focal points in institutional research [5] Group 3 - JinkoSolar highlighted the advantages of perovskite solar cells in space applications, noting that solar energy density in space is 7 to 10 times higher than on Earth [6] - The research activities reflect market focus and trend expectations, although they do not directly equate to investment opportunities [6]

Core Viewpoint - Recent market concerns regarding CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technology rapidly replacing pluggable optical modules are misaligned with the fundamentals of industry development, and pluggable optical modules will remain the mainstream solution for data center optical interconnects for the next two to three years or longer [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The anxiety in the market originates from a misinterpretation of NVIDIA's announcement to scale up CPO technology, leading to irrational valuation differentiation [1][5]. - CPO and pluggable optical modules are not in direct competition but can coexist, with CPO primarily targeting scale-up scenarios while pluggable modules dominate scale-out applications [2][3]. Group 2: Technological Landscape - CPO opens new opportunities in the cabinet interconnect market rather than replacing existing solutions, with major chip manufacturers promoting its adoption [2]. - The NPO (Non-Pluggable Optics) solution offers more flexibility and cost-effectiveness compared to CPO, making it a favored choice among CSP customers [3]. Group 3: Market Structure and Investment Sentiment - The current concentration of holdings in the optical module sector requires time for structural optimization and self-correction, driven by strong fundamentals and high visibility of performance [4][5]. - The rapid concentration of holdings has created a situation where the market is sensitive to negative news, leading to increased stock price volatility, necessitating a period of digestion and reallocation of shares [4].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share CPO concept stocks have collectively risen, with Tianfu Communication surging 17% to reach a historical high, indicating strong market interest in AI-related investments and the potential for growth in the optical module sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Tianfu Communication's stock price increased by 17%, reaching a historical high [1] - New Yisheng rose over 7%, while Zhongji Xuchuang increased by over 5% [1] - Various AI ETFs, including those from Fuguo, Huaxia, Guotai, Hu'an, Huabao, Dacheng, and Southern, all saw gains exceeding 6% [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - Fuguo's AI ETF increased by 6.69% with a year-to-date return of 13.79% and an estimated scale of 35.19 billion [2] - Huaxia's AI ETF rose by 6.56% with a year-to-date return of 13.74% and an estimated scale of 17.74 billion [2] - Guotai's AI ETF saw a 6.59% increase with a year-to-date return of 13.88% and an estimated scale of 7.28 billion [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The optical module sector is experiencing a concentrated chip structure that requires time for optimization and self-correction [3] - Despite being a traditionally slow season, the demand for optical modules shows strong certainty and profitability growth, attracting significant investment [3] - The current concentration of chips indicates a large amount of short-term floating profit, which may lead to increased stock price volatility [3] Group 4: CPO Technology Outlook - There is a notable expectation gap regarding the rapid replacement of pluggable optical modules by CPO technology, primarily due to misinterpretations of developments by companies like Nvidia [4] - The industry fundamentals suggest that CPO and pluggable modules will coexist, with pluggable modules remaining the mainstream demand for the next few years [4] - Leading optical module manufacturers are not excluded from the CPO ecosystem and have established strong barriers in core areas like silicon photonics [4] Group 5: Future Demand Projections - Confidence in future demand for optical modules is increasing, with major CSPs like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta projected to spend a total of $660 billion on capital expenditures by 2026, a 60% year-on-year increase [5] - The demand for optical modules is expected to maintain a rapid upward trend due to the anticipated growth in AI-related capital investments and the ongoing evolution of chip technology [5] - The overall total cost of ownership (TCO) indicates that optical modules will remain competitive for an extended period, supporting continued growth in related companies' performance [5]

（记者 曾健辉） 每经AI快讯，中际旭创（300308.SZ）2月8日在投资者互动平台表示，（1）由于可插拔光模块拥有成熟 的技术、大规模量产与交付能力、网络部署的灵活性以及较低的维护成本等优势，预计仍有较长的生命 周期，能够满足大客户在scale-out和scale-across网络的大规模和低成本部署需求；而在scale-up网络，可 插拔光模块也是客户可选的技术方案之一；（2）公司在NPO、CPO等领域已有技术布局，并将协助重 点客户定制化开发相关产品。综上，公司紧跟行业与客户迭代趋势，通过加大研发投入和加快技术升 级，能够应对数据中心更高带宽密度和更低功耗的需求，有信心继续保持和巩固在行业的优势与地位。 ...

证券研究报告|行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 08 年 月 日 通信 光模块逻辑的背离与收敛 市场近期关于 CPO（共封装光学）技术将快速取代可插拔光模块的过 度担忧，背离了产业发展的基本面，在未来两至三年，乃至更长时间 内，可插拔光模块仍将是数据中心光互连的主流解决方案。市场担忧 和筹码结构集中需时间消化，长期来看市场终将回归业绩基本面主导 的共识。 【预期差纠偏：市场"焦虑"的起源与误读】 英伟达宣布将于今年规模部署 CPO 技术，市场普遍担忧 CPO 技术将 快速全面地取代可插拔光模块。这种过度担忧脱离了行业发展的基本 面，是对 CPO 技术的误读，导致市场估值出现非理性分化。 【筹码结构：过度集中与结构优化】 当前光模块板块筹码结构过于集中，需要时间进行结构优化与自我修 正。 增持（维持） 行业走势 -20% 4% 28% 52% 76% 100% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 2026-02 通信 沪深300 作者 分析师 宋嘉吉 执业证书编号：S0680519010002 邮箱：songjiaji@gszq.com 分析师 黄瀚 执业证书编号：S0680519 ...