格隆汇9月14日丨中际旭创(300308.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，可插拔光模块仍具有很强的迭代能力和 生命力，预计能按照3.2T、6.4T和12.8T的Roadmap进行技术迭代。此外，可插拔光模块拥有维护方便、 使用成本低、故障率低等优势，可以在高速光网络场景使用，仍受到行业客户的广泛重视和青睐。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for AI computing power is driving new opportunities in the optical module industry, with Guangxun Technology planning to raise up to 3.5 billion yuan through a private placement to enhance its production capacity and R&D in high-speed optical transmission products and emerging optoelectronic technologies [1][2]. Group 1: Company Plans and Financials - Guangxun Technology plans to issue up to 242 million shares to no more than 35 specific investors, including its actual controller, China Information Communication Technologies Group [1][2]. - The company reported a revenue of 5.243 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 68.59%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 372 million yuan, up 78.98% year-on-year [1][4]. - The funds raised will be allocated to three main areas, including the production of optical connection and high-speed optical transmission products, R&D for high-speed optical interconnection, and supplementing working capital [2][3]. Group 2: Market Trends and Opportunities - The demand for optical modules in data communication is expected to continue growing, with Ethernet optical module demand projected to exceed 20 billion USD by 2029 [2]. - The global computing power scale reached 1397 EFlops in 2023, a 54% year-on-year increase, and is expected to surpass 16 ZFlops by 2030, indicating a significant growth in AI computing needs [2]. - The demand for high-speed optical modules, especially those rated at 800G and above, is surging, becoming a core component in AI data centers [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Projects - The "Optical Connection and High-Speed Optical Transmission Product Production Construction Project" has a total investment of 2.482 billion yuan, with 2.083 billion yuan sourced from the raised funds, and a construction period of four years [3]. - The project is expected to alleviate capacity bottlenecks and enhance the supply capability of high-end products, thereby strengthening the company's competitive edge in AI data centers and telecommunications markets [3]. - An additional investment of 1 billion yuan is planned for R&D in high-speed optical interconnection and emerging optoelectronic technologies, focusing on next-generation pluggable optical modules and optical engines based on Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technology [3].

Core Viewpoint - The communication sector is experiencing significant growth, with the National Communication Index rising by 1.90% and notable increases in individual stocks such as Dekoli and Zhongci Electronics [1][4]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Communication ETF (159695) has increased by 2.20%, with a cumulative rise of 7.77% over the past two weeks as of September 4, 2025 [1][4]. - The ETF's trading volume was active, with a turnover rate of 23.05% and a transaction value of 57.993 million yuan [4]. - The ETF's scale grew by 31.8469 million yuan over the past week, ranking first among comparable funds, with the latest share count reaching 139 million, a one-year high [4]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - Leading optical module companies achieved a total revenue of 27.682 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking an 83.54% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 8.837 billion yuan, up 127.88% [5]. - The gross margin for these companies was reported at 43.4%, with a net profit margin of 32.82% [5]. - The market for optical modules is expanding, with predictions indicating a 21% market share in Scale-up networks by 2030 [5]. Group 3: Key Stocks and Weightings - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Communication Index account for 64.43% of the index, with significant players including Xinyi, Zhongji Xuchuang, and ZTE [5]. - Notable stock performances include Zhongji Xuchuang rising by 3.35% and Xinyi increasing by 5.13%, while China Telecom and China Mobile saw declines of 2.03% and 0.35%, respectively [7].

Group 1 - The communication ETF (515880) has shown strong performance, with a year-to-date increase of 98.24%, leading among A-share ETFs [1] - Significant net inflows have been observed, with over 3.5 billion yuan net inflow in the last 20 days as of September 1, bringing the total scale to over 10.8 billion yuan, ranking first among peers [1] - Guojin Securities forecasts that leading optical module companies will achieve revenue of 27.682 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 83.54%, and a net profit of 8.837 billion yuan, up 127.88% [1] Group 2 - The gross margin is projected to be 43.4%, with a net profit margin of 32.82% for the leading optical module companies [1] - The market for optical modules is expanding, with a forecasted market share of 21% in the Scale-up network by 2030 according to Lightcounting [1] - The demand for high-speed optical modules is expected to rise due to increased capital expenditures related to AI and accelerated iterations of overseas optical communication solutions [1] Group 3 - The communication ETF (515880) has over 75% allocation in "optical modules + servers + optical fibers + copper connections," providing a one-click investment opportunity in core computing power [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the communication ETF linked funds (Link A: 007817; Link C: 007818) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) industry is nearing a critical point of explosion, with mass production expected in the second half of 2025, and the market's previous fears of disruption have been exaggerated [1][2][19]. Group 1: CPO Industry Outlook - CPO technology is anticipated to accelerate growth compared to previous optical communication technology transitions, with a significant market shift expected by 2027 [2][12]. - The total market size for CPO is projected to exceed $5 billion by 2030 [12]. - The optical components industry is transitioning from fear of technological disruption to being supported by strong fundamentals driven by AI [30]. Group 2: Performance and Profitability - CPO technology offers tangible performance advantages, including over 30% reduction in power consumption, doubled port density, and enhanced signal integrity [7][9]. - The gross margin for CPO business is expected to exceed 50%, significantly higher than the 30% margin for traditional pluggable transceivers [22][19]. - Coherent and Lumentum are positioned as core beneficiaries, with Coherent's EPS forecasted to reach $5.70 in 2027, and Lumentum's EPS expected to rise to $5.90 in the same year [22][24]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Key Players - The market for pluggable transceivers is projected to grow from $11 billion in 2025 to $23 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 17% [16]. - Major players benefiting from the CPO supply chain include Broadcom, NVIDIA, TSMC, Corning, and Fabrinet, each playing a crucial role in the development and deployment of CPO technology [26][31].

Core Viewpoint - The optical components industry is showing signs of recovery after a prolonged period of uncertainty, with a positive outlook on the CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) sector, particularly for leading companies like Coherent and Lumentum [1][12]. Industry Overview - CPO technology is expected to begin mass production in the second half of 2025 and reach a significant turning point in 2027, accelerating growth compared to previous optical communication technology transitions [1]. - The total power consumption of data center hardware is projected to surge from 50 GW in 2023 to 150 GW by 2029, with optical transceiver power consumption expected to increase nearly tenfold [5]. - CPO technology offers substantial performance advantages, including over 30% reduction in power consumption, doubling of port density, and significant performance improvements [8]. Market Dynamics - The market for pluggable transceivers is expected to remain dominant, growing from $11 billion in 2025 to $23 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% [9]. - CPO is not seen as a disruptor to existing supply chains but rather as a catalyst for creating a new market, allowing current optical suppliers to maintain essential roles [12]. Profitability Insights - CPO business is anticipated to have a gross margin exceeding 50%, significantly higher than the 30% margin for traditional pluggable transceivers [13]. - By 2030, CPO is expected to account for 19% of total revenue for companies like Coherent and Lumentum, contributing 27% of gross profit [13]. Company Projections - Coherent is projected to achieve a 10% revenue growth in fiscal years 2026 and 2027, with earnings per share (EPS) reaching $5.70, surpassing market expectations [16]. - Lumentum's EPS forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised to $4.20 and $5.90, respectively, driven by its leadership in CPO laser technology [16]. Key Players and Developments - Major companies benefiting from the CPO supply chain include Broadcom, Nvidia, TSMC, Corning, and Fabrinet, each playing a critical role in advancing CPO technology [20]. - The CPO market is characterized by ongoing pricing pressures and potential vertical integration by customers like Cisco and Ciena, which could impact upstream suppliers [20].