Core Viewpoint - TSMC reported a net revenue of NT$933.78 billion for Q2 2025, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11.3% and a year-over-year increase of 38.6%, driven by demand for 3nm technology and CoWoS packaging [1][2][8] Financial Performance - Gross margin for Q2 2025 was 58.6%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from Q1, influenced by unfavorable exchange rate fluctuations and dilution effects from overseas wafer fabs, although capacity utilization improvements and cost optimization measures partially offset these pressures [3] - Operating income reached NT$463.42 billion, with an operating margin of 49.6%, and net income attributable to shareholders was NT$398.27 billion, marking a 10.2% increase from Q1 and a 60.7% increase from Q2 2024 [3][4] Revenue Breakdown - Advanced technologies (7nm and below) accounted for 74% of total wafer revenue, with 3nm contributing 24%, 5nm at 36%, and 7nm at 14% [4][6] - North America represented 75% of total net revenue, indicating a concentration of revenue sources and potential geopolitical risks [5][8] Market Segmentation - High Performance Computing (HPC) accounted for 60% of revenue, while smartphones contributed 27%, reflecting the growing importance of AI chips and high-end mobile processors as core growth drivers [6][8] - Revenue from China was 9%, down from 16% in Q2 2024, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's upcoming earnings call on Thursday is highly anticipated, with foreign investors focusing on five key topics: the impact of the New Taiwan Dollar appreciation on operations, potential changes in capital expenditures for the year, the status of advanced process and packaging capacity, the outlook for artificial intelligence (AI), and the effects of the "Inflation Reduction Act" [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Impact - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar is a major concern for investors, particularly regarding its impact on TSMC's fundamentals. Morgan Stanley estimates that a 10% appreciation in Q2 will reduce TSMC's gross margin by over 3%, lowering the expected gross margin for the second half of the year from 58%-59% to 55%-56% [1]. - Morgan Stanley has also revised TSMC's earnings per share (EPS) estimates down by 6% and 12% for this year and next, resulting in new EPS figures of NT$55.01 and NT$64.61, respectively [1]. Group 2: Capital Expenditures - Goldman Sachs anticipates no major surprises in TSMC's earnings call regarding capital expenditures, maintaining a target range of USD 38 billion to 42 billion for the year and a projected revenue growth of 28.7% [2]. - The company is expected to maintain its USD revenue growth target of 20% year-over-year [2]. Group 3: Advanced Process and AI Outlook - In terms of advanced processes, Goldman Sachs predicts that TSMC's pricing for processes below 5nm will increase by 3% annually, while CoWoS packaging prices will rise by 5%. The demand for 2nm processes in smartphones may exceed expectations, driving growth for TSMC next year [2]. - Citigroup forecasts that GPUs will continue to dominate the AI market, with ASICs also showing growth. Starting in the second half of 2026, AI chips are expected to transition to 3nm processes, leading to significant increases in average selling prices and enhanced computing power [2]. - JPMorgan notes that TSMC's fundamental demand momentum is more optimistic compared to three months ago, driven by strong AI demand and limited reductions in Apple orders, projecting a 29% year-over-year revenue growth for TSMC this year [2]. Group 4: Inflation Reduction Act - Morgan Stanley believes that the "Inflation Reduction Act" will increase semiconductor tax credits from 25% to 35%, benefiting TSMC, which qualifies for this incentive. Additionally, TSMC's commitment to investing in U.S. fabs may enhance its chances of obtaining tariff exemptions, thereby alleviating profit pressures from U.S. expansion [3].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's advanced CoWoS packaging plant in Chiayi has halted construction following a worker injury incident, with the company voluntarily suspending work until safety improvements are reviewed and approved [1] Group 1 - The construction site experienced a worker casualty on May 26, prompting immediate action from TSMC [1] - TSMC has stated that the site is currently within the scope of delivery contracting, and all related engineering work has been paused [1] - The occupational safety department has mandated TSMC to stop work and submit a plan for resuming operations, which will be reviewed in a subsequent meeting before any restart can be confirmed [1]