Core Insights - The semiconductor foundry industry is experiencing significant differentiation, with TSMC dominating the market, capturing 70.2% of global market share in Q2 2025, and achieving a revenue of $30.239 billion, marking an 18.5% quarter-over-quarter increase [1][2][5] - TSMC's success is attributed to its advanced process technologies (3nm, 5nm) and unique packaging solutions, which have positioned it as a critical player in the AI and high-performance computing (HPC) sectors [5][9][11] - Other foundries, such as Samsung, SMIC, and UMC, are facing challenges in maintaining market share and profitability, with Samsung's revenue at $3.159 billion and a market share of 7.3%, while SMIC's revenue declined slightly to $2.209 billion [2][6][12] Industry Overview - The top ten foundries collectively generated $41.718 billion in revenue in Q2 2025, reflecting a 14.6% increase from the previous quarter, indicating a recovery in the semiconductor cycle [2][4] - TSMC's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached $55.6 billion, with a gross margin of 58.7% and a net profit of $24 billion, showcasing its strong financial performance compared to its competitors [5][19] - The foundry landscape is characterized by a "one strong, many strong" dynamic, where TSMC leads while other firms like UMC and GlobalFoundries maintain stability through specialized processes [4][5][6] Trends and Challenges - The industry is witnessing three major trends: AI-driven demand, structural recovery in mature processes, and geopolitical reshaping of global supply chains [8][13] - AI and HPC demand have intensified the focus on advanced packaging, with TSMC being the only supplier capable of large-scale, high-yield CoWoS packaging, which is critical for AI chip production [9][16] - Mature process nodes are undergoing a recovery phase after significant inventory adjustments, with companies like UMC and VIS reporting improved margins due to rising demand in consumer electronics and automotive sectors [12][13] Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 will be pivotal, with TSMC expanding its packaging capacity and Samsung betting on its 2nm technology to regain competitiveness [15][17] - SMIC and other Chinese foundries need to enhance their product mix and manage depreciation pressures to improve profitability, while companies like Huahong and PSMC face challenges in maintaining financial stability [17][18] - The evolving landscape suggests that future winners will be those who can provide comprehensive system solutions rather than just excel in individual technologies [19]

Core Insights - The semiconductor foundry industry is experiencing significant differentiation, with TSMC capturing the majority of revenue growth, indicating a recovery from the industry's low point [1][5][34] - TSMC's revenue reached $30.239 billion in Q2 2025, commanding a market share of 70.2%, positioning it as the dominant player in the market [2][6] - The overall landscape shows a trend of "one strong, many strong," with TSMC's advanced processes leading the way while other companies face various challenges [6][14] Company Performance - TSMC's half-year revenue totaled $55.6 billion, with a gross margin of 58.7% and a net profit of $24 billion, showcasing its strong market position [6][19] - Samsung Foundry's revenue for the first half was less than $6.2 billion, with a market share around 7%, highlighting its struggles compared to TSMC [10][27] - SMIC reported a half-year revenue of $4.46 billion, with a gross margin of 21.4%, but faced challenges with high depreciation costs and limited average selling price (ASP) increases [11][30] Market Trends - The demand for AI and high-performance computing (HPC) is driving the polarization of advanced processes and packaging, with TSMC positioned as a key player in this shift [15][19] - The mature process segment is undergoing a structural recovery after a period of inventory clearance, with companies like UMC and VIS showing improved margins [21][22] - Geopolitical factors are reshaping the global supply chain, leading to a trend of localized production and a more fragmented capacity distribution [22][24] Future Outlook - TSMC plans to expand its CoWoS packaging capacity, which is critical for AI chip production, with orders already extending into 2026 [26][34] - Samsung is betting on its 2nm process to regain competitiveness, but faces risks associated with its current market position [27][28] - For companies like SMIC and Huahong, improving profitability will be crucial for maintaining their positions in the global supply chain [29][31]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor foundry industry is experiencing significant differentiation, with TSMC dominating the market and other players struggling to keep pace. TSMC's revenue and market share have surged, indicating a recovery in the semiconductor cycle, while competitors face various challenges [1][4][5]. Group 1: TSMC's Dominance - TSMC's Q2 revenue reached $30.239 billion, capturing 70.2% of the global market share, a record high [2][4]. - TSMC's unique "dual moat" strategy, focusing on advanced processes (3nm, 5nm) and advanced packaging (CoWoS, SoIC), has positioned it as a critical player in the AI and HPC markets [4][11]. - AI demand contributes approximately one-third of TSMC's revenue, underscoring its ability to generate excess profits [4][9]. Group 2: Competitors' Struggles - Samsung Foundry's revenue for H1 was under $6.2 billion, with a market share around 7%, highlighting a widening gap with TSMC [5][12]. - SMIC's H1 revenue was $4.46 billion, but its market share declined from 6.0% to 5.1%, indicating challenges in profitability despite high utilization [5][12]. - Other foundries like UMC and GlobalFoundries are maintaining stable operations through specialized processes, with market shares around 3-4% [6][7]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The industry is witnessing three major trends: AI-driven demand, structural recovery in mature processes, and geopolitical reshaping of global supply chains [8][13]. - Advanced packaging has become a critical bottleneck in AI chip production, with TSMC being the only supplier capable of large-scale, high-yield CoWoS [15][16]. - The recovery in mature processes is evident, with companies like UMC and VIS showing improved margins as inventory clearances occur [12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 will be pivotal, with TSMC's packaging expansion, Samsung's 2nm gamble, and the profitability of Chinese foundries being key factors [14][15]. - TSMC plans to increase CoWoS capacity, which is currently constrained, to meet the surging demand from clients like NVIDIA and AMD [16][17]. - The competitive landscape is shifting from merely producing smaller transistors to efficiently packaging higher computing power, indicating a new era of competition in the semiconductor industry [18].

Core Viewpoint - The advanced packaging industry is expected to enter a rapid development phase by 2025, with domestic packaging manufacturers likely to benefit from key breakthroughs in high-end advanced packaging technology [1] Group 1: Industry Development - Advanced packaging is a crucial path to enhance chip performance beyond Moore's Law, with significant upgrades in packaging processes leading to various advanced packaging types such as FC, FO, WLCSP, SiP, and 2.5D/3D [1] - The global advanced packaging market is projected to grow from $37.8 billion in 2023 to $69.5 billion by 2029, driven by strong demand in high-performance computing (HPC), AI/machine learning, data centers, and high-end consumer electronics [2] Group 2: Supply Side Dynamics - The growth in advanced packaging wafer numbers is primarily driven by 2.5D/3D packaging, with a CAGR of 30.5% from 2023 to 2029, supporting sectors like AI/ML, HPC, data centers, CIS, and 3DNAND [3] - TSMC is significantly expanding its CoWoS capacity, expecting to reach 90,000 to 110,000 wafers per month by 2026 due to high demand [3] - Domestic manufacturers are gaining advanced packaging industrialization capabilities, with leading firms capturing a significant share in the mid-to-high-end advanced packaging market [3]

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发表最新研报表示，人工智能(AI)需求持续强劲，从云服务提供商的资 本开支到芯片制造商的产能布局，全产业链呈现加速扩张态势。在此背景下，该行建议"增持"英伟达 (NVDA.US)、博通(AVGO.US)、台积电(TSM.US)、三星(SSNLF.US)、世芯电子(Alchip)、联发科 (MediaTek)、信骅科技(Aspeed)、爱德万测试(ATEYY.US)和京元电子(KYEC)。 AI需求持续爆发，科技巨头加码投入 报告指出，作为AI需求的核心风向标，云服务提供商的资本开支和token处理量表现亮眼。目前谷歌 (GOOGL.US)已将2025年的资本支出预算从750亿美元上调至850亿美元，主要用于服务器投资和数据中 心建设，并预计2026年将进一步加速投资。更值得关注的是，谷歌的月度token处理量从5月的480万亿 激增至980万亿，凸显了AI推理需求的迅猛增长。摩根士丹利由此维持对美国及大中华区半导体行业的 "有吸引力" 评级，认为AI需求韧性将持续支撑行业增长。 H20芯片出货重启，中国市场成焦点 摩根士丹利还指出，此前备受关注的H20芯片出货有望恢复。从中国台湾 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC reported a net revenue of NT$933.78 billion for Q2 2025, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 11.3% and a year-over-year increase of 38.6%, driven by demand for 3nm technology and CoWoS packaging [1][2][8] Financial Performance - Gross margin for Q2 2025 was 58.6%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from Q1, influenced by unfavorable exchange rate fluctuations and dilution effects from overseas wafer fabs, although capacity utilization improvements and cost optimization measures partially offset these pressures [3] - Operating income reached NT$463.42 billion, with an operating margin of 49.6%, and net income attributable to shareholders was NT$398.27 billion, marking a 10.2% increase from Q1 and a 60.7% increase from Q2 2024 [3][4] Revenue Breakdown - Advanced technologies (7nm and below) accounted for 74% of total wafer revenue, with 3nm contributing 24%, 5nm at 36%, and 7nm at 14% [4][6] - North America represented 75% of total net revenue, indicating a concentration of revenue sources and potential geopolitical risks [5][8] Market Segmentation - High Performance Computing (HPC) accounted for 60% of revenue, while smartphones contributed 27%, reflecting the growing importance of AI chips and high-end mobile processors as core growth drivers [6][8] - Revenue from China was 9%, down from 16% in Q2 2024, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's upcoming earnings call on Thursday is highly anticipated, with foreign investors focusing on five key topics: the impact of the New Taiwan Dollar appreciation on operations, potential changes in capital expenditures for the year, the status of advanced process and packaging capacity, the outlook for artificial intelligence (AI), and the effects of the "Inflation Reduction Act" [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Impact - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar is a major concern for investors, particularly regarding its impact on TSMC's fundamentals. Morgan Stanley estimates that a 10% appreciation in Q2 will reduce TSMC's gross margin by over 3%, lowering the expected gross margin for the second half of the year from 58%-59% to 55%-56% [1]. - Morgan Stanley has also revised TSMC's earnings per share (EPS) estimates down by 6% and 12% for this year and next, resulting in new EPS figures of NT$55.01 and NT$64.61, respectively [1]. Group 2: Capital Expenditures - Goldman Sachs anticipates no major surprises in TSMC's earnings call regarding capital expenditures, maintaining a target range of USD 38 billion to 42 billion for the year and a projected revenue growth of 28.7% [2]. - The company is expected to maintain its USD revenue growth target of 20% year-over-year [2]. Group 3: Advanced Process and AI Outlook - In terms of advanced processes, Goldman Sachs predicts that TSMC's pricing for processes below 5nm will increase by 3% annually, while CoWoS packaging prices will rise by 5%. The demand for 2nm processes in smartphones may exceed expectations, driving growth for TSMC next year [2]. - Citigroup forecasts that GPUs will continue to dominate the AI market, with ASICs also showing growth. Starting in the second half of 2026, AI chips are expected to transition to 3nm processes, leading to significant increases in average selling prices and enhanced computing power [2]. - JPMorgan notes that TSMC's fundamental demand momentum is more optimistic compared to three months ago, driven by strong AI demand and limited reductions in Apple orders, projecting a 29% year-over-year revenue growth for TSMC this year [2]. Group 4: Inflation Reduction Act - Morgan Stanley believes that the "Inflation Reduction Act" will increase semiconductor tax credits from 25% to 35%, benefiting TSMC, which qualifies for this incentive. Additionally, TSMC's commitment to investing in U.S. fabs may enhance its chances of obtaining tariff exemptions, thereby alleviating profit pressures from U.S. expansion [3].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's advanced CoWoS packaging plant in Chiayi has halted construction following a worker injury incident, with the company voluntarily suspending work until safety improvements are reviewed and approved [1] Group 1 - The construction site experienced a worker casualty on May 26, prompting immediate action from TSMC [1] - TSMC has stated that the site is currently within the scope of delivery contracting, and all related engineering work has been paused [1] - The occupational safety department has mandated TSMC to stop work and submit a plan for resuming operations, which will be reviewed in a subsequent meeting before any restart can be confirmed [1]