| | | 购金持续介入，金价中枢或进一步抬高。沪金2512合约关注区间：900-950元/克；沪银2512合约关注区间 免责声明 贵金属产业日报 2025-11-17 ：11500-12300元/千克。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 929.46 | -23.74 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 11933 | -418 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 101723 | -11874 主力合约持仓量:沪 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for three weeks, becoming the second-longest shutdown in history. The two parties remain deadlocked over the upcoming expiration of medical subsidies, and the total U.S. federal government debt has exceeded $38 trillion, providing potential safe-haven support [2]. - The market's expectation of loose policies from Japan's new political party has strengthened, pushing the U.S. dollar to continue to strengthen in the short term, which may continue to suppress the gold price [2]. - Looking ahead, there are many uncertainties in the macro - environment. The London gold price still has strong buying support at the $4000 mark, but subsequent correction risks should be guarded against. The short - term trend of gold and silver will mainly be wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the U.S. CPI data released on Friday. If the CPI is stronger than expected, it may weaken the expectation of interest rate cuts and lead to a further correction in the gold price. The trading range for the SHFE Gold 2512 contract is 900 - 1000 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE Silver 2512 contract is 11000 - 11600 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE Gold main contract was 942.28 yuan/gram, a decrease of 10.28 yuan; the closing price of the SHFE Silver main contract was 11467 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 63 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of SHFE Gold were 189131 lots, a decrease of 3672 lots; the main contract positions of SHFE Silver were 377229 lots, a decrease of 9004 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 holders of the SHFE Gold main contract were 109168 lots, a decrease of 1528 lots; the net positions of the top 20 holders of the SHFE Silver main contract were 97767 lots, an increase of 135 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 87015 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 663366 kilograms, a decrease of 28322 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 938 yuan/gram, a decrease of 5.5 yuan; the spot price of silver was 11360 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 57 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SHFE Gold main contract was - 4.28 yuan/gram, an increase of 4.78 yuan; the basis of the SHFE Silver main contract was - 107 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of 6 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 1052.37 tons, a decrease of 6.29 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15597.61 tons, a decrease of 79.03 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 266749 contracts, an increase of 339 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 52276 contracts, an increase of 738 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83 tons; the global total annual demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 33.48%, an increase of 5.33 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 24.5%, an increase of 3.17 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 31.86%, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 31.86%, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 21, the total U.S. federal government debt exceeded $38 trillion for the first time, just over two months after reaching $37 trillion in mid - August [2]. - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for 22 days, becoming the second - longest shutdown in history. The two parties are deadlocked over medical subsidies, and it may last until November [2]. - U.S. President Trump cancelled his meeting with Russian President Putin in Budapest. The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Russia's largest oil producer [2]. - India and the U.S. are about to reach a trade agreement, potentially reducing the tariff on Indian goods exported to the U.S. from about 50% to 15% - 16% [2]. - There are signs of a缓和 in international trade relations, and there are rumors that senior Chinese and U.S. leaders will hold tariff negotiations in Malaysia [2].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant downturn influenced by multiple factors, including the appreciation of the RMB and the depreciation of the USD, leading to a bearish trend in gold prices [3][5][6]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold has broken below the key level of 3200, reaching a low of approximately 3167, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend [3][5]. - The market sentiment is crucial, with the potential for further declines if gold fails to rebound above 3200. A failure to do so may lead to targets around 3175 or 3150 [5][6]. - Technical analysis suggests that if gold can stabilize above 3200, there may be a chance for a rebound towards 3235 or 3260 [5][6]. Silver Market Analysis - Domestic silver has shown weakness, dropping below the support level of 8150 to around 8100, indicating a potential for further declines [7]. - Despite the bearish sentiment in gold affecting silver, there is an opportunity to attempt long positions if silver holds above 8100 [7]. - International silver has been fluctuating between 32 and 33, and as long as it remains within this range, there are opportunities for short-term bullish trades [6][7]. Domestic Futures Market - The domestic gold futures (沪金) have seen significant declines, with the 2512 contract dropping to around 751, and further declines could target the critical level of 735 [6]. - The domestic silver futures (融通金) are also under pressure, currently at 747, with potential declines towards 730 if the bearish trend continues [6]. - The domestic fuel oil market has seen a recent bullish trend, reaching a peak of 2770, but the current outlook suggests a cautious approach with a recommendation to remain in a wait-and-see mode [8]. Oil Market Analysis - The international crude oil market is experiencing fluctuations, currently around 61.8, with a potential resistance level at 64. The market is expected to remain in a range between 64 and 55.5 [7]. - The outlook for crude oil is uncertain, and traders are advised to observe market movements before making any trading decisions [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold is currently testing low levels and seeking upward breakout potential, with recent CPI data not altering its weak trend [1][3] - Gold has been in a low volatility state, with recent fluctuations showing limited upward movement, and the market is advised to observe the continuation of strength or weakness [3][5] - The dollar index has seen a significant drop due to poor CPI data, closing around 100.7, with expectations of further weakness potentially reaching 99.8 [5][6] Group 2 - Key technical levels for gold include maintaining higher lows and breaking the resistance at 3280, which is crucial for establishing bullish momentum [6][7] - Domestic gold futures have shown limited volatility, with the Shanghai gold contract closing around 770, and potential upward movement if it breaks 775 [7] - International silver has provided trading opportunities around the 32 low point, with expectations of reaching 33.5, while domestic silver has also shown profit potential around the 8200 level [8] Group 3 - The international crude oil market has shown a strong upward trend, currently peaking around 64, with expectations of further increases towards 66 [8] - Domestic fuel oil has seen significant profits from previous long positions, with the highest price reaching 2760, and traders are advised to adjust their profit-taking strategies [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a bullish trend for gold, with a significant price increase of nearly $100 observed during the holiday period, suggesting that pullbacks present buying opportunities [2][4] - The highest price reached was 3338, and the bullish momentum is expected to continue, with key resistance levels identified at 3370 and 3420, which are crucial for further upward movement [4][5] - The daily chart shows a strong bullish candle, indicating potential upward movement towards the upper Bollinger Band around 3500, suggesting a large upward space [4] Group 2 - For the H4 timeframe, support is noted around 3310, with buying opportunities suggested if a pullback occurs, while targets are set at 3352 and 3370 [5] - Domestic gold futures (沪金) are currently trading around 797, with a bullish outlook after a prior decline, and potential targets above 820 are indicated [5][6] - International silver is showing a clear trend, with support at 31.5 and a focus on buying opportunities around 32, with targets set at 33 and 34 [5][6] Group 3 - Domestic silver futures (沪银) are currently at 8340, with a bullish outlook and targets set at 8400 and 8450, indicating a potential for further upward movement [6] - International crude oil is experiencing adjustments, with a focus on a potential rebound from 55, while the overall long-term trend remains bearish [6] - Domestic fuel oil futures (燃油) are suggested for buying above 2550, with upward targets set at 2700 and 2800, indicating a significant upward trend potential [6]