行业研究|可选消费|汽车与汽车零部件 证券研究报告 汽车与汽车零部件行业 周报、月报 2026 年 3 月 2 日 [Table_Title] 商用车持续增长，乘用车结构向上 ——汽车行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 商用车持续增长，链上企业基本面稳固 根据中汽协发布数据，2026 年 1 月我国商用车克服传统"淡季"影响， 实现开门红。市场销售 35.87 万辆，同比增长 23%。细分市场方面，重 卡销量 10.5 万辆，同比增长 46%；新能源商用车销量同比增长 62%， 渗透率持续提升；商用车出口继续高位运行，同比增长 23.6%。商用车 增长驱动因素包括"两新"政策推动、老旧营运货车报废更新、新能源商用 车持续渗透以及出口增长等多重因素。展望 2 月，受春节假期因素影响， 预计市场销量环比或有波动，但随着节后复工复产及"金三银四"传统旺 季临近，市场需求有望快速回升。中汽协预测 2026 年商用车市场总销 量将达到 450 万辆，同比增长 4.7%，为汽车行业基本面提供稳定支撑。 进口车销量持续下滑，自主豪华车空间稳步打开 根据海关总署发布数据，2025年进口车销量47.6万辆，同 ...

国内新闻 1月底全国乘用车行业库存357万辆 2月25日，乘联分会秘书长崔东树发文表示，2026年1月底，全国乘用车行业库存357万辆，较上月下降8万辆，较2025年1月 增58万辆，形成库存高位运行特征。他还指出："2026年1月底的库存与未来销量综合预估的现有库存支撑未来销售天数在70 天，相对于2023年1月的65天、2024年1月的70天、2025年1月的48天，今年1月的总体库存压力相对较大。" 默茨访华，奔驰宝马大众高管随访 据央视新闻消息，德国总理默茨于2月25日至26日对中国进行正式访问。25日上午，默茨乘机抵达北京首都国际机场，开启 就任以来的首次访华行程。来自汽车、化工、生物制药、机械制造、循环经济等德优势领域的约30家头部企业高管随访。另据 悉，随访高管包括大众汽车集团管理董事会主席奥博穆、梅赛德斯-奔驰集团股份公司董事会主席康林松、宝马集团董事长齐普 策。 "航天走廊"自动驾驶运输系统预计年内启用 2月25日，香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波在立法会发表2026至2027财政年度政府财政预算案。陈茂波表示，香港特区政府 在保障道路安全的前提下，正加速自动驾驶无人化、规模化发展，达致商业营运 ...

Core Viewpoint - Toyota will start selling American-made cars in Japan from 2026, aiming to improve Japan-US trade relations [1] Group 1 - Toyota plans to sell the Camry sedan, Highlander SUV, and Tundra pickup truck in Japan [1]

Group 1: Automotive Market Trends - The retail market for narrow passenger vehicles in December is expected to reach approximately 2.3 million units, representing a month-on-month increase of 3.4% but a year-on-year decline of 12.7%. Among these, the expected retail volume for new energy vehicles is around 1.38 million units, with a penetration rate projected to reach 60% [1] - Ideal Auto has recently restructured its supply chain departments, merging the "Parts Cluster" into the "Manufacturing" department, which now has over 10,000 employees, accounting for one-third of the total workforce in the smart vehicle group [2] - A new automotive technology company, Jetta Automotive Technology (Sichuan) Co., Ltd., was established with a registered capital of 3 billion RMB, focusing on manufacturing automotive parts, electric motors, and smart vehicle equipment [4] Group 2: Company Developments - Xiaomi has obtained an L3-level autonomous driving road test license in Beijing, allowing for conditional autonomous driving tests on designated high-speed road sections [1] - Seyond Tuda has announced a partnership with SAIC Volkswagen for a new model that will feature Tuda's Lingque E1X laser radar, with plans for mass production in 2026 [5] - Toyota plans to sell three models manufactured in the U.S. in the Japanese market starting next year, including the Camry, Highlander SUV, and Tundra pickup [6] Group 3: Safety Recalls - Ford is recalling over 272,000 vehicles in the U.S. due to a potential issue where the integrated parking module may not secure the vehicle in the park position when shifting gears [7] - BMW is recalling 36,922 units of the 2025-2026 X3 models due to a risk of the steering wheel unexpectedly moving while the vehicle is stationary [8]

Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce of China is in discussions with the EU regarding the electric vehicle case, emphasizing the need for dialogue to resolve differences and create a stable market environment for both parties [2] - Guangzhou has launched a second round of automotive consumption promotion activities with a supplementary fund of 300 million yuan, offering subsidies of 4,000 yuan and 5,000 yuan for a total of 75,000 vehicles [3] - BYD has signed a global strategic cooperation memorandum with Fosun, focusing on integrating travel and vacation services for over 15 million BYD car owners and 20 million members of Fosun's travel platform [4] - GAC Group has completed the establishment of the Haopai Aion Business Unit, aiming for a phased integration of sales and service channels for the two brands by March 2026 [5] - Jetta Automotive Technology Company has been established with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan, with a shareholding structure involving state-owned industrial funds [6] - Li Auto is establishing an AI research center in Silicon Valley, focusing on smart driving and has begun recruiting high-end AI talent [7] - NIO Energy and Zhong'an Energy have launched 50 jointly built charging and battery swap stations in Anhui Province [8] - Ora Auto has introduced a year-end purchase tax subsidy plan to alleviate concerns for customers about potential tax policy changes due to year-end vehicle deliveries [9][10] International News - UK automotive production stabilized in November, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.7% to 63,126 vehicles, attributed to recovery from a cyberattack affecting Jaguar Land Rover [11] - Toyota plans to import three models manufactured in the U.S. to Japan starting in 2026, including the Camry, Tundra, and Highlander [12] - Momenta has formed a strategic partnership with Grab to explore integrating L4 autonomous driving capabilities into mass-produced vehicles for the Southeast Asian market [13] - South Korea and the UK have signed an upgraded free trade agreement that relaxes rules on the origin of automobiles exported from South Korea [14] Commercial Vehicles - Foton has unveiled a new strategic plan for new energy and intelligent commercial vehicles, showcasing several new products and aiming for a 90% increase in new energy sales [15] - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group has launched the "Xiao Zhong 1.0," an intelligent service vehicle that integrates AI technology for enhanced operational efficiency [16] - Beiben Heavy Truck has successfully passed the national high-tech enterprise re-examination, focusing on innovation in smart driving and new energy [17] - Chongqing is promoting the construction and application of high-power charging infrastructure for electric heavy-duty trucks, with plans to establish over 100 charging stations by 2028 [18]

Core Viewpoint - Toyota plans to start selling its U.S.-made Camry sedans, Highlander SUVs, and Tundra pickups in Japan from next year to improve U.S.-Japan trade relations [1] Group 1: Trade Relations - Toyota is exploring the possibility of "reverse imports" to address the significant trade surplus Japan has with the U.S. [1] - The company aims to persuade President Trump to lower tariffs on Japanese cars and related parts exported to the U.S. [1] - A clause in the U.S.-Japan trade agreement requires Japan to "open its market" to allow imports of American cars [1] Group 2: Corporate Initiatives - Toyota's Chairman Akio Toyoda previously suggested that U.S. automakers could utilize Toyota's sales network in Japan to sell cars [1] - The company has recently launched production at its $13.9 billion battery plant in North Carolina to increase hybrid vehicle output [1] - Toyota confirmed plans to invest $10 billion in U.S. manufacturing over the next five years [1]

Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce reported that from January to September 2025, the actual use of foreign capital in China amounted to 573.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4% [2] - The Shanghai Waigaoqiao Port's Haitong International Automobile Terminal achieved a record high automobile export volume of 1.109 million units in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.2% [3] - The Hong Kong Innovation and Technology Bureau is promoting the development of the electric vehicle industry chain in Hong Kong, aiming to transform research advantages into economic growth [4] - Chery Automobile announced a purchase tax subsidy plan, offering a maximum subsidy of 15,000 yuan per vehicle for eligible users due to changes in purchase tax policies [5] - Huawei and Dongfeng are accelerating the implementation of the DH project, focusing on deep integration of technology and establishing a regular coordination mechanism [6] - Jianghuai Automobile Group and CATL signed a long-term strategic cooperation agreement to jointly develop advanced power battery products and explore overseas markets [7] - NIO's battery swap service has surpassed 90 million swaps, with an average daily swap volume exceeding 100,000 [8] - BMW Group announced the establishment of its only IT center in China, located in Nanjing, to enhance operational efficiency and focus on AI and digital twin technologies [9] International News - U.S. automotive factories may face significant production disruptions within 2 to 4 weeks due to chip supply issues [10] - Porsche plans to cease production of the gasoline-powered Macan model by 2026, with a potential gap in offerings until the release of its electric successor [11] - Toyota is preparing to import vehicles produced in the U.S. back to Japan, including models not previously available in the Japanese market [12] - Sharp announced plans to launch an electric vehicle by the 2027 fiscal year, leveraging its parent company Foxconn's platform [13] Commercial Vehicles - Huawei is accelerating the electrification of heavy-duty trucks, reducing charging time from one hour to 15 minutes [14] - Suzhou Jinlong plans to transfer 63% of its shares to Jinlong Automobile as part of internal resource integration [15] - FAW Liberation celebrated the achievement of over 10,000 vehicle sales in the Jiangsu region, highlighting its strong market presence [16] - Dongfeng launched three commercial vehicle models tailored for the Saudi market, showcasing its commitment to international expansion [18]