公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 凯莱英（002821）2025 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 三季度业绩符合预期，新兴业务表现亮眼 目标价：120 元 事项： 近期，公司发布 25Q3 业绩。25 年前三季度公司实现收入 46.30 亿元（+11.82%）， 归母净利润 8.00 亿元（+12.66%），扣非归母净利润 7.28 亿元（+9.74%）。25Q3 公司实现收入 14.42 亿元（-0.09%），归母净利润 1.83 亿元（-13.46%），扣非 归母净利润 1.62 亿元（-24.75%）。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 5,805 | 6,629 | 7,731 | 8,951 | | 同比增速(%) | -25.8% | 14.2% | 16.6% | 15.8% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 949 | 1,177 | 1,448 | 1,758 | | 同比增速(%) | -58.2% ...

Core Insights - The company maintains a "buy" rating with an upward revision of the annual performance guidance based on strong revenue growth and new order trends [1][3] Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 10.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.38%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.227 billion yuan, up 10.76% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin stood at 34.22%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 12.16%, down 0.40 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In Q3 alone, revenue reached 3.645 billion yuan, a 13.44% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit of 471 million yuan, up 12.88% year-on-year [1] Segment Performance - Laboratory services generated revenue of 6.004 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a 15.04% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 45.13% [2] - The small molecule CDMO segment reported revenue of 2.293 billion yuan, up 15.99% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 32.10% [2] - Clinical research revenue was 1.440 billion yuan, a 10.26% increase year-on-year, but with a lower gross margin of 11.79% [2] - The large molecule and cell & gene therapy segment saw revenue of 336 million yuan, an 8.13% increase year-on-year, but with a negative gross margin of -49.15% [2] Order Trends - New orders for Q1-Q3 2025 increased by over 13% year-on-year, with laboratory services and CMC new orders growing by over 12% and approximately 20%, respectively [3] - The company has revised its full-year revenue guidance upward to a growth range of 12%-16% based on the new order trends [3] Catalysts - Improved investment and financing conditions, along with better-than-expected development in backend operations and enhanced operational efficiency, are seen as key catalysts for future growth [4]

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 32.86 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, representing an 18.6% year-on-year increase, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.076 billion yuan, up 84.84% [1] - The company has raised its full-year guidance, expecting a 17-18% growth in continuous operating revenue for 2025, up from the previous estimate of 13-17% [2] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached 12.06 billion yuan, a 15.3% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.515 billion yuan, up 53.27% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 was 4.22 billion yuan, reflecting a 42% increase [1] - The adjusted net profit margin improved by 1.7 percentage points to 32.1% [2] Business Segments - The chemical business generated 25.98 billion yuan in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, a 29.3% increase, with a gross margin of 51.3% [2] - Small molecule D&M revenue was 14.24 billion yuan, up 14.1%, while TIDES revenue surged by 121.1% to 7.84 billion yuan [2] - The Testing business reported revenue of 4.17 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, with a gross margin of 26.5% [3] - The biological segment generated 1.95 billion yuan in revenue, with a gross margin of 37% [3] Order Backlog and Growth Prospects - The company had an order backlog of 59.88 billion yuan as of Q3 2025, a 41.2% year-on-year increase [2] - The TIDES order backlog grew by 17.1% year-on-year, indicating strong short-term performance certainty [3] Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 45.036 billion yuan, 52.98 billion yuan, and 61.18 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 14.77%, 17.64%, and 15.48% [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 14.346 billion yuan, 16.033 billion yuan, and 19.093 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 51.8%, 11.76%, and 19.09% [4]

Core Insights - The company reported strong financial performance for Q1-Q3 2025, with revenue of 32.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%, and a net profit of 12.08 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 84.8% [1] - The company has raised its revenue growth guidance for 2025 from 13-17% to 17-18%, driven by robust demand in core business areas and improved operational efficiency [2] - The company plans to divest its clinical research services business for 2.8 billion yuan, which is expected to help focus on core operations and accelerate global capacity expansion [2] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 32.86 billion yuan, with a 22.5% year-on-year increase in continuing operations revenue [1] - Adjusted non-IFRS net profit was 10.54 billion yuan, up 43.4% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 32.1%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company’s continuing operations backlog reached 59.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.2% [2] Business Segments - The small molecule CDMO and TIDES segments showed strong growth, with WuXi Chemistry generating 25.98 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 29.3% [2] - TIDES revenue surged by 121.1% year-on-year to 7.84 billion yuan, while D&M revenue increased by 14.1% year-on-year to 14.24 billion yuan [2] - The drug safety evaluation segment maintained industry leadership, with laboratory analysis and testing revenue of 1.08 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards by 6.0% and 2.8%, respectively, to 15.63 billion yuan and 14.82 billion yuan [3] - Current A-shares are valued at 19.8x and 20.9x PE for 2025 and 2026, while H-shares are valued at 19.3x and 20.1x PE for the same periods [3] - Target prices for A-shares and H-shares have been raised by 7.4% to 123.5 yuan and 7.1% to 135.0 yuan, respectively, indicating an upside potential of 19.0% and 22.2% [3]

Group 1: Market Demand and Growth - The biotech client segment is experiencing a mild recovery, driven by capital market improvements, technological breakthroughs, and ongoing clinical applications [2] - The Chinese market has seen a year-on-year growth of 21%, significantly faster than the first half of the year, attributed to increased project delivery pace [3] - The overall market demand outlook remains optimistic, with significant contributions from late-stage clinical projects [2] Group 2: Financial Performance and Cost Management - The company has achieved a strong recovery in overall profitability this year, with effective high-value commercialization projects and cost reduction measures [2] - Expenses have decreased by 13% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with further cost reduction potential anticipated [3] - The gross profit margin is expected to continue improving if market demand remains stable and production capacity utilization increases [2] Group 3: Capacity and Production - The main production capacity for small molecule APIs is distributed across several locations, with ongoing improvements in utilization rates in Chongqing and Jiangxi [4] - There are structural differences in capacity utilization, with some facilities operating at saturation while others require optimization [4] - The company is focusing on enhancing existing capacity utilization rather than expanding new capacity [4] Group 4: Strategic Focus and Future Outlook - The company aims to identify key market opportunities amid changing customer demand and supply chain strategies [3] - The cardiovascular, renal, and metabolic (CVRM) sectors are highlighted as areas with significant potential for small molecule demand [3] - Continuous organizational and process reforms are being implemented to enhance operational efficiency and competitiveness [4] Group 5: Talent and Recruitment - The overall employee count has seen a stable increase, with some structural adjustments to meet company needs [4] - The talent supply environment is characterized by a need for suitable candidates that align with the company's requirements [4]

Key Points Summary of Kailaiying Conference Call Company Overview - Kailaiying was founded by Dr. Hong in 1998, with a development path similar to WuXi AppTec, listed on Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2016 and Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2021 [7][10] Industry and Business Segments - The company operates in the CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) sector, focusing on small molecules and emerging businesses such as large molecule CDMO, formulation CDMO, clinical CRO, and synthetic biology [2][4] - Emerging businesses currently account for approximately 20% of total revenue and are expected to grow rapidly, significantly contributing to overall performance [2][4] Financial Performance - Revenue growth is projected to be in the double digits from 2025 to 2027, with profit growth potentially slightly faster [6][16] - The small molecule CDMO segment is robust, contributing about 70% to 80% of total revenue, with a high gross margin of 90% [3][8] - The company reported a recovery in revenue and profit growth in Q4 2024, with expectations for strong growth in 2025 [5][16] Market Position and Strategy - Kailaiying's overseas revenue dominates, with only 26% from China, approximately 60% from the US, and around 13% from Europe, making it less affected by domestic price wars [9] - The company employs a leasing model for overseas expansion to mitigate financial risks associated with direct acquisitions, reflecting a cautious and stable growth strategy [5][17] Emerging Business Insights - The emerging business segment includes significant growth in the chemical large molecule area, with production capacity expected to reach 30,000 liters by the end of the year, indicating rapid expansion [12] - Key factors for growth in emerging businesses include large clients and orders in the peptide sector, which are crucial for future product sales [15] Management and Governance - Dr. Hong holds 32% of the company's shares and has extensive industry experience, supported by a management team with a strong background [10] - The company has implemented an equity incentive plan for over 600 employees, granting nearly 5 million restricted shares, demonstrating confidence in future growth [10] Clinical and Technological Advancements - Kailaiying has made significant breakthroughs in various clinical fields, including oncology, immunology, and rare diseases, with a strong order growth in large molecules [13][14] - The company is also innovating through CFCT technology and applying synthetic biology across multiple sectors, including food and cosmetics [14] Financial Health - As of the end of 2024, Kailaiying's cash reserves are close to 60 billion RMB, with a high proportion of financial assets [16] - The company is expected to see a revenue growth rate of over 40% in emerging businesses, with profit growth anticipated to outpace revenue growth [16]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Insights - The report highlights that the pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a significant increase in the complexity of drug molecules, leading to higher R&D and production value [5][19] - The small molecule CDMO sector is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 16% in the next five years, with peptide CDMO projected to grow at over 25% and oligonucleotide CDMO at over 31% [5][22] - The report indicates that leading CDMO companies are showing strong order acquisition capabilities and operational efficiency despite external uncertainties [5][31] - The overall industry is in a phase of increasing R&D investment and outsourcing rates, with global pharmaceutical R&D spending expected to rise from $154.9 billion in 2015 to $277.6 billion by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 6.7% [22][26] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index fell by 2.1% during the week of September 22-26, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.2 percentage points [4][44] - Year-to-date, the CITIC Pharmaceutical and Biotech Index has risen by 22.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 7.0 percentage points [4][44] - The top five performing stocks for the week included Xiangrihui (+57.9%), Aopumai (+23.9%), and Xinlitai (+15.8%) [4][64] 2. Industry Trends from WuXi AppTec - The report discusses the trends observed during WuXi AppTec's investor day, emphasizing the continuous innovation in drug technologies and the increasing complexity of drug molecules [5][19] - The average weight of drug molecules has increased by 14% from 2021 to 2025, with the proportion of molecules weighing over 600 Da rising by 63% [19][21] - The report notes that the CRO outsourcing rate is expected to exceed 50% by 2024, driven by the increasing R&D investments from smaller biotech firms [26][27] 3. CDMO Performance - Leading CDMO companies have shown robust growth in Q2 2025, with some raising their annual performance guidance, indicating an accelerating recovery in the industry [39] - WuXi AppTec provided production services for 20% of the 40 small molecule innovative drugs approved by the FDA from 2024 to the first half of 2025 [31][32] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative drugs, particularly those with strong revenue and commercialization capabilities, as well as potential high-value targets based on technological and industry trends [6][44] - Recommended stocks include Kangfang Biotech, BaiLi Tianheng, and Yuantong Biotech among others for October [6][44]

Core Viewpoint - Kanglong Chemical is recognized as a leading global drug research and development enterprise with a full-process, integrated, international, and multi-therapy approach [1] Company Summary - The company’s laboratory services, small molecule CDMO, clinical CRO, and large molecule and cell gene therapy services are expected to have ample growth momentum and broad growth space [1] - Kanglong Chemical is on a path to becoming a global integrated research and production service giant [1] Industry Summary - Given the growth prospects of the company and the global competitive advantages of China's CXO industry, a higher valuation level is deemed appropriate [1] - The report suggests a target price of 47.73 yuan based on a 40 times PE for 2026, and a target price of 39.34 Hong Kong dollars based on a 30 times PE for 2026 [1] - The report initiates coverage with a "recommend" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) business is showing improvement, with a positive trend in performance and a recovery in the industry [1][2] - The company reported a revenue of 1.381 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 276 million yuan, up 15.70% year-on-year [1] - The company is well-positioned in the global biopharmaceutical supply chain, benefiting from the increasing demand for innovative drugs from China [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the CDMO segment achieved revenue of 2.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, while the API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient) segment saw a revenue decline of 28.5% to 520 million yuan [2] - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 37.5%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 18.3%, up 1.1 percentage points [3] - The company’s domestic revenue was 580 million yuan, down 5.83% year-on-year, while overseas revenue was 2.29 billion yuan, up 6.62% year-on-year [3] Project Pipeline and Client Acquisition - The company has a robust project pipeline with 1,214 projects under contract, including 90 Phase III clinical projects and 38 commercial projects [2] - The company has introduced over ten new clients in the formulation CDMO business and has over 100 active formulation projects [2] Capacity Expansion and Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its global R&D capabilities and production capacity, with ongoing construction of a GMP production line for peptides expected to be operational by the end of 2025 [3] - The company is enhancing its international strategy to increase customer loyalty globally [3] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 949 million yuan, 1.041 billion yuan, and 1.184 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 56.5%, 9.8%, and 13.7% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that Kailaiying is positioned for growth through its small molecule CDMO business and emerging sectors, leveraging its technological advantages and expanding service capabilities to become a leading comprehensive CDMO service provider [3][4]. Small Molecule CDMO Business - The small molecule CDMO business is the foundation of Kailaiying's development and its largest revenue segment, benefiting from continuous reaction technology and biocatalysis, which provide a competitive edge in cost and efficiency [3][5]. - The company aims to enhance its global presence and pipeline penetration among multinational pharmaceutical companies by expanding overseas production capacity, particularly leveraging experiences from the UK Sandwich Site [3][5]. Emerging Business Segments - Kailaiying has diversified into several emerging business areas, including chemical macromolecule CDMO, formulation CDMO, biological macromolecule CDMO, clinical CRO, technology output, and synthetic biology, supported by its established R&D and quality management systems [3][5]. - The chemical macromolecule CDMO segment is expected to grow rapidly due to increasing demand for peptide and oligonucleotide drugs, with the company poised to capture market share amid supply shortages [5]. - The formulation CDMO business is anticipated to see significant growth with the introduction of new production capacities for pre-filled syringes and solid formulations by 2025 [5]. - The biological macromolecule CDMO segment, focusing on conjugated drugs, is expected to enhance both efficiency and profitability through an integrated service model [5]. - The clinical CRO business is projected to recover steadily as the innovative drug sector sees increased investment and as the company strengthens its capabilities in mid-to-late stage projects and overseas registrations [5]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 39 million, 83 million, and 141 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 186%, 111%, and 69% respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.24, 3.89, and 4.71 yuan [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 36, 30, and 25 for the years 2025 to 2027, indicating a favorable valuation outlook based on the company's growth potential and competitive advantages [4].