Core Viewpoint - The report from Guohai Securities indicates that Muyuan Foods achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.779 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 41.01%. However, the net profit for Q3 2025 saw a significant decline of 55.98% year-on-year, amounting to 4.249 billion yuan [1]. Business Performance - In the pig farming segment, the company sold 57.323 million pigs from January to September 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 27.0% [1]. - The company has actively responded to national capacity control measures, reducing the number of breeding sows to 3.305 million by the end of Q3 [1]. - Despite a slight increase in feed prices since the beginning of the year, the company's production performance and management improvements have led to a continuous decline in the total cost of pig farming, which fell to 11.6 yuan/kg in September, down 1.5 yuan/kg from January [1]. Slaughtering and Meat Processing - In the slaughtering and meat processing segment, the company slaughtered 19.16 million pigs from January to September 2025, a substantial year-on-year increase of 140%, with a capacity utilization rate of 88% [1]. - The company has gradually increased its slaughter volume, achieving profitability in the slaughtering and meat processing business in Q3 [1]. - Over 80% of the slaughtered pigs had costs below 12 yuan/kg, while approximately 25% had costs below 11 yuan/kg. The best-performing lines managed to achieve costs as low as 10.5 yuan/kg [1]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain effective cost control and long-term development potential, leading to a "buy" rating from analysts [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1][3]. Core Insights - The company continues to improve its breeding costs, leading to a significant increase in per-head profitability compared to the industry average. The cash flow has improved, and the debt-to-asset ratio is steadily declining. Due to industry losses and policy adjustments, it is expected that the reduction in sow capacity will accelerate, potentially raising the average pig price in 2026. The company is well-positioned to benefit from its low-cost advantage [1][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 110.861 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 11%. The operating profit is expected to be -3.732 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 125%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at -4.263 billion yuan, down 132% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at -0.78 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of -65.6 [2][18]. - For 2024, total revenue is expected to rise to 137.947 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 24%. The operating profit is projected at 20.011 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 17.881 billion yuan, indicating a significant recovery [2][18]. Performance Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 111.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and a net profit of 14.8 billion yuan, up 41%. In Q3 2025, the revenue was 35.3 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, while the net profit was 4.25 billion yuan, down 56% year-on-year. The company’s performance aligns with expectations [7][8]. - The company has successfully reduced its breeding costs from 13.1 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 11.6 yuan/kg by September 2025, with expectations to further decrease to 11 yuan/kg by year-end [7][8]. Shareholder Information - The total share capital is 5,463 million shares, with 3,811 million shares listed for trading. The total market capitalization is approximately 279.6 billion yuan, and the circulating market capitalization is about 195.1 billion yuan. The return on equity (ROE) is reported at 28.9%, and the debt-to-asset ratio stands at 55.5% [3][18].

Core Viewpoint - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 111.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.779 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.01%. However, in Q3 2025, revenue decreased by 11.48% to 35.327 billion yuan, and net profit dropped by 55.98% to 4.249 billion yuan [1]. Business Performance - The company's main business remains stable, with a total of 57.323 million pigs sold from January to September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.0%. The company has reduced its breeding sow inventory to 3.305 million by the end of Q3 in response to national capacity control measures [2]. - Despite a slight increase in feed prices, the company's production performance and management improvements have led to a continuous decline in the total cost of pig farming, which reached 11.6 yuan/kg in September, down 1.5 yuan/kg from January [2]. - In the meat processing segment, the company slaughtered 19.16 million pigs from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 140%, with a capacity utilization rate of 88%. The meat processing business achieved profitability in Q3 [2]. Production Metrics - As of September 2025, the company achieved a weaning-to-market survival rate of 93%, with overall survival rates around 87%. The pigs' daily weight gain was approximately 880g, and the feed-to-meat ratio during the fattening phase was around 2.64 [2]. - Over 80% of the company's output comes from production lines with costs below 12 yuan/kg, and about 25% from lines below 11 yuan/kg. The best-performing lines can achieve costs as low as 10.5 yuan/kg [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to generate revenues of 124.852 billion yuan, 126.801 billion yuan, and 139.943 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 16.701 billion yuan, 17.935 billion yuan, and 25.2 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 16, 15, and 11 times respectively. The company is viewed positively for its cost control and long-term development potential, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][8] Core Insights - The company's main business is developing steadily, with continuous optimization of breeding costs. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 111.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.779 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.01% [2][5] - In Q3 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 35.327 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.48%, and a net profit of 4.249 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55.98% [2][5] Summary by Sections Business Performance - In the pig breeding business, the company sold 57.323 million pigs from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.0%. The company has reduced the breeding sow inventory to 3.305 million by the end of Q3 [5] - Despite a slight increase in feed prices, the company's breeding costs have been decreasing, reaching 11.6 yuan/kg in September, down 1.5 yuan/kg from January [5] - In the slaughtering and meat processing business, the company slaughtered 19.16 million pigs from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 140%, with a capacity utilization rate of 88% [5] Production and Cost Efficiency - The company achieved a weaning-to-market survival rate of 93% and an overall survival rate of around 87% by September 2025. The average daily weight gain for fattening pigs was approximately 880g, with a feed-to-meat ratio of 2.64 [5] - Over 80% of the company's output was below 12 yuan/kg, and about 25% was below 11 yuan/kg, with the best-performing lines achieving costs as low as 10.5 yuan/kg [5] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to generate operating revenues of 124.852 billion yuan, 126.801 billion yuan, and 139.943 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 16.701 billion yuan, 17.935 billion yuan, and 25.200 billion yuan [5][7] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) are projected to be 16, 15, and 11 times for the respective years [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Muyuan Foods, has no plans to expand into deep processing of meat products or establish its own brand retail channels, focusing instead on its core business and exploring new growth opportunities such as overseas development and supporting farmers [1] Group 1: Business Strategy - The company's current customer base for its slaughtering and meat business primarily consists of large agricultural wholesalers, chain supermarkets, chain restaurants, food processing companies, and new retail enterprises, targeting B-end clients [1] - The company aims to continuously reduce costs and improve efficiency while enhancing the quality of its development [1] Group 2: Future Growth Opportunities - Muyuan Foods is exploring new growth spaces, including overseas development and initiatives to support farmers, rather than venturing into high-end processed meat products like gourmet sausages and hams [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the financial performance of Muyuan Foods, with a revenue of approximately 111.79 billion yuan and a net profit of about 14.78 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.52% and 41.01% respectively [1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio was 55.50%, showing a decrease from the previous quarter, and the total liabilities had decreased by approximately 9.8 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [1] - The company reported a significant increase in its slaughtering business, with a total of 19.16 million pigs slaughtered in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 140% and an 88% capacity utilization rate [1] Group 2 - Muyuan Foods is currently in the process of filing with the China Securities Regulatory Commission for its Hong Kong listing, indicating that it is progressing through the necessary procedures [2]

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods has achieved profitability in its slaughter meat business for the third quarter, indicating that the company's overall operational strategy is beginning to show results [1] Group 1: Slaughter Meat Business - In Q3 2025, Muyuan Foods' slaughter meat business marked its best performance in recent years, achieving quarterly profitability due to improved capacity utilization, expanded sales channels, enhanced customer service, and optimized product structure [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, the company slaughtered 19.16 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 140%, with a capacity utilization rate of 88% [1] - The company expects continued growth in slaughter volume in Q4 and next year, planning to steadily advance the construction of planned but unbuilt slaughter capacity based on market demand and operational planning [1] Group 2: Pig Farming Business - In the first nine months of 2025, Muyuan Foods sold 57.32 million commercial pigs, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27% [1] - The company has responded to national capacity regulation by reducing its breeding sow inventory to 3.305 million by the end of Q3 [1] - Despite a slight increase in feed prices this year, the overall cost of pig farming has been decreasing monthly, reaching 11.6 yuan per kilogram in September, down 1.5 yuan per kilogram since January, attributed to improved production performance and reduced overhead costs [1]

Financial Performance - In the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 111.79 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.52% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached CNY 14.78 billion, up 41.01% year-on-year [5] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of CNY 35.33 billion and a net profit of CNY 4.25 billion [5] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was CNY 28.58 billion [5] Debt Management - The company's debt-to-asset ratio was 55.50% at the end of Q3 2025, a decrease from the previous quarter [5] - The total liabilities decreased by approximately CNY 9.8 billion since the beginning of the year [6] - The company has exceeded its initial target of reducing total liabilities by CNY 10 billion for the year [11] - Long-term goal is to reduce the debt-to-asset ratio to below 50% [11] Livestock Operations - The company sold 57.32 million pigs from January to September 2025, a 27.0% increase year-on-year [6] - The cost of pig farming decreased to CNY 11.6/kg in September, down CNY 1.5/kg from January [6] - The number of breeding sows was reduced to 3.31 million by the end of Q3 2025 [6] Slaughtering and Meat Processing - The company slaughtered 19.16 million pigs in the first nine months of 2025, a 140% increase year-on-year [7] - The capacity utilization rate for slaughtering was 88% [7] - The third quarter marked the first profitable quarter for the slaughtering business in recent years [7] Capital Expenditure Plans - Domestic capital expenditure is expected to decrease as most production lines are now fully operational [8] - The company plans to explore overseas markets, including a partnership with BAF Vietnam for a breeding project [8] Future Strategies - The company aims to enhance its service offerings to local farmers through a comprehensive support program [12] - Plans to maintain growth in slaughtering volumes and improve sales and operational capabilities [13] - The company is focused on optimizing cost structures and improving production efficiency [15] Stock Market Developments - The company's Hong Kong stock listing is currently in the regulatory filing stage [16]

Summary of Mu Yuan Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Mu Yuan Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Pig farming and meat processing Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue**: 2025 Q1-Q3 revenue reached 117.79 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.52% [3] - **Net Profit**: Net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.779 billion RMB, up 41.01% year-on-year [3] - **Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 28.58 billion RMB [3] - **Debt Management**: Debt ratio decreased to 55.5%, with total liabilities reduced by approximately 9.8 billion RMB since the beginning of the year [2][3] Operational Highlights - **Pig Sales**: Sold 57.323 million pigs, a 27% increase year-on-year [2][5] - **Breeding Stock**: Breeding sow inventory reduced to 3.305 million in response to national capacity control [2][5] - **Cost Management**: The cost of pig farming dropped to 11.6 RMB/kg, a decrease of 1.5 RMB/kg since the beginning of the year, primarily due to improved production performance [2][5] Slaughtering and Meat Processing - **Slaughter Volume**: Slaughtered 19.16 million pigs, a 140% increase year-on-year, with a capacity utilization rate of 88% [2][6] - **Profitability**: The meat processing segment achieved a net profit of over 30 million RMB in Q3, indicating initial success in operational strategies [2][6][14] Cost Reduction Strategies - **Cost Drivers**: Cost reductions were mainly driven by improved production metrics rather than raw material price declines, with over 70% of cost reduction attributed to enhancements in survival rates, feed conversion ratios, and other key performance indicators [7][8][19][27] - **Future Plans**: The company aims to continue optimizing production performance and reducing costs through breeding, nutrition, and technology applications [5][19] Capital Expenditure Plans - **Domestic Capex**: Maintains a capital expenditure target of 9-10 billion RMB for the current year, with a projected decrease for the next year [4][9] - **International Ventures**: Plans for joint ventures in Vietnam with capital expenditure expected in 2026-2028, specific details to be disclosed by year-end [4][9][18] Innovative Business Models - **Support for Farmers**: The company is implementing a "Linking Farmers" model, aiming to provide over 2 million piglets directly to farmers next year, enhancing technical support and promoting industry advancement [4][10] Market Outlook - **Breeding Stock Stability**: Plans to maintain breeding sow inventory at 3.3 million by year-end, with no significant adjustments anticipated unless national policies change [11] - **Debt Management Goals**: Long-term goal to achieve a debt ratio below 50%, with a cautious approach to ensure cash flow safety [12] International Market Developments - **Vietnam Market**: Despite recent price fluctuations, the company sees potential profitability in Vietnam and plans to establish a robust operational framework there [18][20] Future Projections - **Pig Price Trends**: Cautious outlook on pig prices for the first half of 2026 due to increasing supply, with readiness to navigate potential downturns [21] - **Inventory Management**: Decrease in inventory attributed to reduced pig stocks and grain procurement [22] Conclusion Mu Yuan Co., Ltd. demonstrates strong financial performance and operational improvements, with strategic plans for cost reduction, market expansion, and innovative support for farmers. The company is well-positioned to navigate industry challenges while pursuing growth opportunities both domestically and internationally.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1][7][3] Core Views - The company continues to lead in breeding costs, with significant cash flow improvements and a declining debt-to-asset ratio. The dividend payout ratio has notably increased, reflecting the company's value [1][7] - In the context of supply-side reforms and production capacity adjustments, the company is expected to benefit from its low-cost advantage, particularly in the face of industry challenges [7][1] - The company achieved a revenue of 76.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 34%, and a net profit of 10.5 billion yuan, up 1170% year-on-year [7][19] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 110.861 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of -11%, followed by a 24% increase in 2024 [19][20] - The estimated net profit for 2025 is 21.074 billion yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 13.0 [19][20] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is expected to reach 38.235 billion yuan in 2025, indicating strong operational efficiency [18][20] Performance Metrics - The company’s breeding costs have significantly improved, with the estimated cost of live pigs dropping from 13.1 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 11.8 yuan/kg by July [7][19] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.32 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 5 billion yuan, which represents 48% of its net profit [7][19] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 26.0% in 2025, reflecting strong profitability [20][19]