（原标题：沈文忠：晶硅电池技术仍有很长的生命周期） 21世纪经济报道记者 曹恩惠、实习生余名伟 成都报道 11月19日，由南方财经全媒体集团指导、21世纪经济报道主办、中国国际光伏与储能产业大会组委会支 持的2025第八届中国国际光伏与储能产业大会暨21世纪·新能新质绿色能源发展论坛在成都隆重召开。 最后，提及钙钛矿技术，沈文忠认为单结钙钛矿是没有竞争力的，与晶硅电池叠层是必由之路。 沈文忠进一步围绕晶硅技术的不可替代性、非银金属化突破方向，以及TOPCon、BC、异质结三大主流 电池技术的竞争与协同，为"十五五"及更长周期光伏产业技术方向的发展提供了思考路径。 沈文忠指出："晶硅的优势是非常明显的，未来十年，乃至更长时间内，我们看不到比晶硅更好的技 术。" 目前，光伏若要继续维持成本优势，需要进一步聚焦晶硅技术的优化。沈文忠介绍，目前，我国已全面 掌握硅提纯技术，硅料产能超300万吨，目前晶硅电池市场占比98%，是维持光伏低价的核心技术载 体。"但在当前晶硅电池成本中，银金属化占比极高，银价直接影响光伏的成本优势，所以未来五年一 定是无银化、贱金属化，金属化的铜、铝、镍等是一个发展趋势。" 沈文忠特别指出， ...

除了行业自律行动的推进以外，持续不断的创新也被认为是破解当前光伏行业内卷的重要"武器"。在本 次大会上，技术突破、创新成为业内人士们提及的高频词汇。 2025年上半年，中国光伏产业迎来里程碑式跨越，新增装机量突破20000万千瓦，同比增长逾100%，累 计装机总量昂首迈过100000万千瓦大关，正式开启"太瓦时代"，光伏行业正式进入"价值重构"的关键节 点。 "随着光伏行业'反内卷'取得成效，一定要在提高效率的同时高度重视质量的提升。光伏行业未来要走 三条路：效率提升、减金属化的应用、可靠性加强。"上海交通大学太阳能研究所所长沈文忠在接受 《证券日报》记者采访时表示，异质结、BC、TOPcon这三类技术都面临自身的竞争挑战，其中，产能 较多的TOPcon电池或将在两年内迎来一个分水岭，相关产能要占据市场优势，仍然需要以技术创新实 现突破。 "近年来BC技术得到大家广泛的认可，未来的技术是要把上述这三类技术融合发展，事实上，已经有很 多企业在进行尝试了。"沈文忠说道。 11月17日至20日，2025第八届中国国际光伏与储能产业大会(以下简称"光储大会")在成都世纪城国际展 览中心举行。 近年来，我国光伏产业的供 ...

Summary of the Solar Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The solar photovoltaic (PV) industry in China has undergone three key phases: subsidy-driven growth, grid parity, and policy support, significantly increasing the share of renewable energy generation and domestic installed capacity [2][5][12]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Growth and Policy Impact**: The introduction of large-scale renewable energy projects, such as the desert wind and solar base projects, has significantly boosted renewable energy generation in China [2]. - **International Market Dynamics**: The U.S. has increased its investment tax credit (ITC) to 30%, reflecting its commitment to renewable energy, despite trade barriers against Chinese products [2][6]. - **Technological Advancements**: The shift from multi-crystalline to mono-crystalline silicon has reshaped the market, with companies like LONGi Green Energy emerging as leaders. The TOPCon technology, led by JinkoSolar, is accelerating the phase-out of PERC technology [2][7][11]. - **Future Demand Projections**: By 2050, solar energy is expected to account for 50% of renewable energy generation, driven by government investment plans [2][9]. Industry Challenges - **Overcapacity and Price Wars**: The industry is currently facing challenges related to overcapacity and price wars, necessitating further policy support to stabilize prices [4][20]. - **Global Market Fluctuations**: The global PV market has seen a surge in demand since 2020, but the industry must navigate the impacts of international trade policies and competition [15][17]. Technological Developments - **Battery Technology Evolution**: The transition from PERC to TOPCon technology is significant, with companies like LONGi and Aiko leading in new battery technologies. However, the current overcapacity may hinder the profitability of these advancements [10][11][21]. - **Material Costs**: The prices of key materials such as silicon, glass, and encapsulants have risen due to increased demand and supply chain constraints [15][16]. Market Forecasts - **Installed Capacity Predictions**: Global installed capacity is projected to reach 610 GW by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13%. However, domestic demand may face pressure in 2026 due to policy changes [19]. - **Long-term Growth Outlook**: The solar market is expected to maintain a growth rate of 10%-15% in the coming years, with a stable domestic demand anticipated post-2026 [19]. Conclusion - The solar PV industry is poised for significant growth driven by technological advancements and supportive policies. However, challenges such as overcapacity and international trade dynamics must be addressed to ensure sustainable profitability and market stability [20].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is facing severe challenges due to low-price competition, which is eroding profit margins and threatening long-term sustainability. The Chinese government is taking steps to regulate the industry and shift focus from quantity to quality in order to maintain competitiveness in the global market [1][2][3]. Industry Challenges - The current low-price competition is squeezing profit margins for companies, forcing them to cut R&D investments, which threatens innovation and long-term survival [2]. - The "bad money drives out good" effect is evident, where high-quality producers are losing market share to low-cost competitors, leading to a slowdown in technological upgrades and challenges in supply chain stability [2]. - The industry is experiencing a misallocation of social capital due to homogeneous competition, exacerbating the overall industry crisis [2]. Government Actions - Six government departments have convened to address the chaotic competition in the PV industry, emphasizing the need for regulatory measures to create a fair market environment [3]. - A "red-green light" system will be established to regulate projects based on energy efficiency, environmental standards, and technological criteria, guiding investments towards advanced production capacities [3]. - The aim is to curb unfair competition practices, such as selling below cost, to ensure all companies compete on a level playing field, thereby enhancing overall industry competitiveness [3]. Future Directions - The industry must transform internal competition into external growth by focusing on technological innovation, application scenarios, global market expansion, and ecological collaboration [4]. - Innovations in technology, such as heterojunction, perovskite, and tandem cells, are crucial for breaking free from price wars and achieving premium pricing [4]. - Expanding into diverse application scenarios and global markets will create new demand and enhance value chains, moving from simple product sales to comprehensive solutions [4]. - Building a resilient ecosystem through collaboration among upstream and downstream players will provide a sustainable competitive advantage [4]. Conclusion - Historical trends indicate that every reshuffle in the PV industry presents opportunities. Embracing value co-creation and moving away from zero-sum competition will empower the Chinese PV sector to maintain its global leadership [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing patent wars in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, emphasizing the shift from an incremental growth phase to a competitive landscape where companies are focusing on retaining advanced production capacity and eliminating outdated capacity. Patents are seen as a crucial tool in this "anti-involution" strategy [1]. Group 1: Patent Litigation Overview - The patent litigation between JinkoSolar and LONGi Green Energy is highlighted as a significant ongoing conflict in the PV sector, with a need to assess the patent situations of the top 10 companies in terms of module shipments [3]. - Since 2019, the patent wars in the PV industry have been continuous, with only two companies, GCL-Poly and Hengdian East Magnetic, not involved in any patent litigation [3]. - Tongwei Co., while rapidly rising in the top 10, has had minimal patent litigation exposure, primarily due to its dual leadership in silicon materials and cells [3]. Group 2: Patent Application Statistics - Trina Solar leads in patent applications with 7,219 patents, followed by JinkoSolar and LONGi Green Energy in second and third places, respectively [7]. - Canadian Solar, despite facing multiple patent infringement lawsuits, has a substantial patent application count of 4,669, placing it among the top tier of PV companies [7]. - GCL-Poly has a relatively low patent application count, while Hengdian East Magnetic has over 3,700 patents, but only 681 are related to PV technology, making it the lowest among the top 10 [7]. Group 3: Patent Validity and Status - LONGi Green Energy holds the highest number of valid patents at 3,900, while Trina Solar has 3,448 valid patents, and JinkoSolar has 2,449 [10]. - The analysis shows that Yida New Energy has the lowest percentage of expired patents at 3%, while GCL-Poly and Canadian Solar have high expiration rates of 40% and 32%, respectively [10]. - The proportion of pending patents indicates that Trina Solar has over 33% pending, while Hengdian East Magnetic and JinkoSolar have around 30% [10]. Group 4: Patent Types and Quality - JinkoSolar and Trina Solar have the highest number of invention patents, with JinkoSolar's invention patents making up 70% of its total applications [12]. - GCL-Poly's patent applications are primarily domestic, with minimal international presence, indicating a focus on the domestic market [17]. - GCL-Poly has a total of 1,138 patent applications, with 519 being valid, but a significant number of low-value patents have been abandoned or rejected [19]. Group 5: Legal Events and Patent Management - GCL-Poly has engaged in various legal events related to its patents, including transfers and acquisitions, indicating active management of its patent portfolio [25]. - Hengdian East Magnetic has also seen significant patent pledges, with over 75 patents pledged for financing, reflecting a strategic approach to leveraging its patent assets [38]. - The company has a relatively high number of invention patents, with 445 out of 681 total patents, indicating a focus on high-quality innovations [35]. Group 6: Strategic Insights and Recommendations - Both GCL-Poly and Hengdian East Magnetic have lower overall patent strengths compared to leading companies like JinkoSolar and LONGi Green Energy, which may impact their competitive positioning [42]. - GCL-Poly's strategy of acquiring external patents could enhance its litigation capabilities, while Hengdian East Magnetic's effective maintenance of patent validity is crucial for future legal defenses [42]. - The article suggests that PV companies should enhance innovation and proactively manage patent risks to minimize litigation exposure [45].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry in China is transitioning from price competition to technology-driven competition, supported by government policies aimed at fostering high-quality development and reducing low-price competition [2][3][5]. Industry Summary - The "anti-involution" policies are effectively addressing issues of low-price competition and redundant construction in the photovoltaic sector, creating a more favorable environment for companies focused on technological innovation [2][3]. - The introduction of a cost baseline for components by the photovoltaic industry association and the revision of industry regulations by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are key measures to promote orderly development [2][3]. - The implementation of the revised "Anti-Unfair Competition Law" provides a stronger legal framework to combat unfair competition practices, further supporting the industry's shift towards quality and innovation [2][3]. Company Summary - Dongfang Risen Energy Co., Ltd. is actively responding to national policies by increasing investments in technological innovation, product development, and brand building, aiming to create value for customers and contribute to global carbon neutrality [1][4]. - The company is advancing its Baotou integrated project, leveraging its "green electricity + green hydrogen" dual-drive strategy and cutting-edge technologies like heterojunction cells to compete for project orders [1][3]. - Dongfang Risen is committed to developing high-efficiency green products with lower electricity costs and carbon footprints, enhancing its product structure and accelerating the elimination of low-end capacity [4][5]. - The company has achieved significant breakthroughs in efficiency and carbon reduction through its heterojunction technology, which has led to reduced water consumption and carbon emissions during production [4]. - The ongoing technological innovations and strategic positioning of Dongfang Risen are expected to solidify its competitive advantage and drive the entire industry towards value-based competition, particularly in the context of the dual carbon goals [5].

Core Viewpoint - Two private enterprises, Shuangxin Environmental Protection and Ordos Electric Metallurgy Group, have emerged as industry leaders in China by producing different products, PVA and PVC respectively, leveraging similar resource endowments and industrial paths [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shuangxin Environmental Protection specializes in PVA (polyvinyl alcohol), recognized as one of the three major production bases in China, with products distributed across 29 provinces and exported to over 40 countries [2]. - Ordos Electric Metallurgy Group has pioneered the mercury-free production technology for PVC (polyvinyl chloride), enhancing China's international competitiveness in the industry [2]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - Ordos Electric Metallurgy Group established a national-level enterprise technology center in 2015, collaborating with Shanghai Jiao Tong University to leverage talent and innovation for the chlor-alkali chemical new materials industry [3]. - Shuangxin Environmental Protection has invested in a specialized research institute for polymer materials, focusing on enhancing innovation capabilities and competitiveness [3]. Group 3: Economic Development - The region of Ordos has seen a surge in benchmark enterprises, with significant investments in projects like the 2GW heterojunction battery project and the graphite deep processing project, creating a magnetic effect that attracts supporting businesses [4]. - Ordos has developed a robust economic framework, with 1 leading technology enterprise, 4 specialized small and medium enterprises, and 29 high-tech enterprises, showcasing its competitive and influential county-level economy [5].

Group 1 - The article discusses the stable development of the silicon industry chain, highlighting the importance of futures and spot market integration [1][14] - It features insights from industry experts with extensive experience in the photovoltaic sector, emphasizing the significance of market research and technological advancements [5][10][17] Group 2 - The event is organized by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, indicating a strong institutional backing for discussions on market trends and industry developments [1][14] - The participation of experts from various backgrounds suggests a comprehensive approach to understanding the global photovoltaic market outlook and industry trends [10][17]

Summary of the Conference Call on Photovoltaic Industry Developments in Q1 2025 Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the photovoltaic (PV) industry, specifically advancements in solar cell technologies such as TOPCon, heterojunction (HJT), and IBC [3][5]. Key Points and Arguments Technological Advancements - Significant progress has been made in PV cell technologies, particularly in TOPCon and heterojunction technologies, with cost and efficiency improvements exceeding expectations [3][5]. - TOPCon efficiency enhancement methods include grid line optimization, back surface thinning, and multi-slicing, with edge passivation showing the most significant effect, expected to improve efficiency by over 0.2% [3][7]. Market Dynamics - The supply side of the PV industry is experiencing capacity restrictions, while the demand side is encouraging high-efficiency products, leading to the elimination of outdated capacities [3][5]. - Prices for silicon materials, wafers, and battery components have increased in Q1 2025, with median price increases of 3%, 20%, 17%, and 4% respectively, driven by production cuts and policy demand [6]. Competitive Landscape - A patent dispute between JinkoSolar and LONGi Green Energy regarding TOPCon technology is ongoing, which may impact the competitive landscape and technology iteration within the industry [3][8]. - The cost gap between ABC components and other technologies like PERC and TOPCon is narrowing, with ABC components expected to have superior profitability by the end of 2025 [11]. Market Performance of BC Products - The cost-performance ratio of BC products has significantly improved, with existing capacity reaching 49 GW and nearly 45 GW under construction by the end of Q1 2025 [9]. - In recent tenders, BC components have shown a price premium of approximately 0.05 yuan per watt compared to TOPCon components [9]. Silver Paste Price Impact - The price of silver paste has risen above 8,000 yuan per kilogram, which constitutes nearly 50% of the metallization cost for TOPCon cells. Strategies to reduce metallization costs include using silver-coated copper paste and fully replacing it with copper paste systems [13]. Investment Opportunities and Risks - The market is expected to drive the elimination of homogeneous outdated capacities, presenting investment opportunities in new technology-related stocks within the PV sector [14]. - Key investment lines include leading battery and component manufacturers, new technology equipment suppliers, and suppliers of low-silver metallization solutions. Risks include lower-than-expected installation demand, slower-than-expected technology adoption, intensified market competition, and policy changes [14]. Additional Important Content - The efficiency of leading BC technology companies, such as Aiko, LONGi, and Maxon, has reached 24% as of March 2025, surpassing traditional PERC and TOPCon technologies by over 1% [10]. - The HJT technology sector is gaining market share, with a total production capacity of approximately 45 GW as of March 2025, indicating a growing acceptance of HJT products in tenders [12].