二、【部分直播课内容如下】 1. 构建股票基金组合的思路 从长期看，股票资产是财富积累的最佳途径。 有朋友问，如何判断哪些品种处于低估？ 成长/价值风格轮动，该如何应对？ 分散配置+再平衡，为何能实现1+1＞2？ 在今晚的直播课里，螺丝钉详细介绍了这些问题。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 0303 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） PS：直播内容仅为市场知识分享，不构成投资建议。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 一、【第436期直播回放】 螺丝钉星级 ，可以用来判断市场整体的估值情况。 每个交易日晚上，在公众号上更新的估值表的最上方，会有一行红色的星星，就是螺丝钉星级。 但与此同时，股票资产的波动风险也远远超过了其他资产。 那么，该怎么做，才能获得好收益呢？ 其实，我们可以参考以下思路，来构建股票基金组合： 下面，我们就来具体介绍下。 2. 低估投资：再好的品种，也要买得便宜 在低估阶段投资，是投资股票基金的一个大原则。 低估投资有以下两个方面的好处： · 低估投资，能降低持有期间的波动风险； · 低估买入，未来估值提升空间更大。 那么，我们该怎么判断 ...

Market Overview - The market showed slight fluctuations with large-cap stocks slightly up and small-cap stocks slightly down, indicating low volatility [2][3] - The A-share trading volume has decreased compared to previous days, suggesting a market entering a holiday mode ahead of the Spring Festival [5][4] Holiday Arrangements - The last week before the Spring Festival includes specific arrangements for fund transactions, with the last opportunity to invest in stocks and bond funds being before Friday at 3 PM [10][11] - Fund transactions will pause during the holiday, resuming on February 24 [9][10] Investment Strategies - The investment strategy for the week includes a pause in regular investments for the index-enhanced and actively selected advisory combinations, with a focus on holding positions until they return to undervalued status [20] - The monthly investment strategy includes a focus on dividend-style stocks, with some currently undervalued [20] Performance and Valuation - Certain indices, particularly small-cap indices, have reached high valuation levels, presenting opportunities for profit-taking [25] - Specific profit-taking actions have been executed on holdings in the 中证1000 index, with returns ranging from approximately 71% to 79% on different dates [27][30] Fund Performance Metrics - The 中证红利低波动 fund has a yield of 12.03% with a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.31, indicating a favorable investment environment [35] - The 中证500 low volatility fund has shown a yield of 30.36% with a price-to-earnings ratio of 1.89, suggesting it is a viable investment option [35]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various methods for profit-taking in investments, highlighting their advantages and disadvantages, and provides examples of past investment strategies based on market valuation levels [1][22][81]. Summary by Sections Profit-Taking Methods - Three common methods for profit-taking in single index funds are outlined: 1. Profit-taking based on yield. 2. Profit-taking based on overvaluation. 3. Long-term holding without selling, relying on dividends for profit [5][34]. Method 1: Profit-Taking Based on Yield - This method involves taking profits when the yield reaches a predetermined level, typically around 30%. It is noted that opportunities for this type of profit-taking occur approximately every 3-5 years [7][10]. Method 2: Profit-Taking Based on Overvaluation - The article explains that: - Low valuation is suitable for regular investments. - Normal valuation suggests holding. - High valuation indicates a potential for profit-taking [11][12]. - The valuation can be assessed using the "Screw Nut Star Rating" and valuation tables updated daily [14][18]. Method 3: Long-Term Holding - This strategy emphasizes holding investments for the long term and relying on dividends. It is particularly suitable for high-dividend stocks and index funds [34][35]. Case Studies of Investment Strategies - The article provides examples of successful investment strategies: 1. From 2018 (5-star rating) to 2021 (3-star rating), investments were made in undervalued assets, which were later sold at high valuations [22]. 2. Investments made in 2018 that remain at normal valuation levels, with plans to sell when they reach overvaluation [24]. 3. A strategy initiated in 2024 with investments in the CSI 1000 index, which will be sold when it reaches overvaluation [26]. Automatic Profit-Taking Features - The company offers automatic profit-taking features in its investment advisory products, allowing for seamless transitions from high to low-risk investments when market conditions change [49][56]. Monthly Cash Flow Investment Strategy - The "Monthly Salary" investment advisory product allows for flexible cash flow options, with a projected annual payout of approximately 6% of the total assets [43][44]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting appropriate profit-taking strategies based on individual circumstances and market conditions, while also highlighting the automated features of the company's investment products that facilitate these strategies [81][83].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing fluctuations, with large-cap stocks showing slight declines while small-cap stocks are facing more significant drops. Recent weeks have seen a shift towards value and dividend styles, which are gaining strength after a period of underperformance [2][3][4][5]. Market Performance - The overall market has seen a decline, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index slightly down, while small-cap stocks have dropped more significantly [2][3]. - Value and dividend indices have recently increased, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards these styles [4][5]. - Growth styles, particularly in the ChiNext board, have seen a pullback after reaching high valuations in previous weeks [6]. Investment Strategy - The company has adjusted its active selection strategy, taking profits from overvalued growth styles and increasing positions in undervalued value styles, aligning with the recent style shift [7][8]. - Active selection and monthly investment portfolios have achieved new highs recently, reflecting successful strategy implementation [9]. Fund Management - The Hong Kong stock market has shown slight declines, with less volatility compared to A-shares [10]. - The company has introduced a new fee structure for investment advisory services, capping annual fees at 360 yuan regardless of the number of portfolios held, which is a first in the industry [16][19]. - The company has paused subscriptions for certain investment portfolios to prevent investors from chasing high prices, indicating a focus on maintaining investment discipline [20]. Index Valuation - The CSI 1000 index has reached high valuation levels, prompting the company to initiate a phased profit-taking strategy for holdings in this index [22]. - The company has successfully executed profit-taking on its holdings in the CSI 1000 index, achieving returns of approximately 71% to 72% on recent sales [22]. New Publications - A new book titled "Dividend Index Fund Investment Guide" has been released, quickly becoming a bestseller, aimed at educating investors about dividend index funds [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment opportunities and strategies based on different star ratings of the market, specifically focusing on the current 3.x star rating and the appropriate investment combinations for both existing and new funds [1][11][67]. Group 1: Star Rating and Investment Strategies - The "螺丝钉星级" (Screw Star Rating) is used to assess the overall market valuation, with a scale from 1 to 5 stars indicating different investment phases [6][9]. - A 5-5.9 star rating represents the best phase for investing in stock funds, characterized by a high number of undervalued options and limited downside risk [26][28]. - In the 4-4.9 star range, there are still some undervalued options, but the number decreases, and investment amounts should be reduced compared to the 5-star phase [31][32]. - The 3-3.9 star range indicates that most options are either fairly valued or overvalued, making it less favorable for new investments in stock funds [35][39]. Group 2: Current Market Valuation - As of early January 2026, the market is around 3.9 stars, with most options returning to normal valuations and few remaining undervalued [11][67]. - The article notes that during the extreme valuation of 5.9 stars in September 2024, a significant portion of the market was undervalued [12]. - Historical data shows that at 3.7 stars in early 2021, there were no undervalued options available, highlighting the cyclical nature of market valuations [13][36]. Group 3: Investment Combinations - The article outlines various investment combinations suitable for different star ratings, including "主动优选" (Active Selection), "指数增强" (Index Enhancement), and "月薪宝" (Monthly Salary Treasure) [19][30][55]. - The "月薪宝" combination, which includes a higher proportion of stock assets, is currently undervalued, while "主动优选" and "指数增强" have returned to normal valuations [20][21]. - For 4-star phases, a more conservative approach with lower stock exposure, such as the "月薪宝" combination, is recommended to mitigate volatility [33][34]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategies - The article suggests using a "100-age" rule for allocating existing funds, where the percentage of stock assets should be based on the investor's age [49][46]. - For new funds, a systematic investment approach (定投) is recommended, particularly during favorable market conditions [51][29]. - The article emphasizes the importance of diversifying investments across different asset types to manage risk effectively [34][57].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various methods for profit-taking in investment strategies, particularly focusing on index funds and the importance of evaluating market conditions to determine when to sell [1][3]. Group 1: Profit-Taking Methods - Method 1: Profit-taking based on return rate, typically considering selling when returns reach 30%. This method is simple but may lead to missing out on significant bull market gains [4][6]. - Method 2: Profit-taking based on high valuation, using a star rating system to assess market conditions. A higher star rating indicates a higher valuation, suggesting it may be time to sell [7][10]. - Method 3: Long-term holding without selling, relying on dividends for income. This strategy is less stressful but requires investment in high-dividend stocks [32][33]. Group 2: Case Studies - Case Study 1: From 2018 to 2021, investments made during a low valuation phase yielded significant returns as the market transitioned to a high valuation phase [20]. - Case Study 2: Investments made in 2018 that remained at normal valuation levels until 2026, indicating a strategy of holding through market fluctuations [22]. - Case Study 3: Investments in the 中证1000 index from a low valuation in 2024 to a high valuation in 2026, demonstrating the effectiveness of a buy-low, sell-high strategy [25]. Group 3: Market Insights - The market's star rating fluctuates, with a noted drop to 5.9 stars in September 2024, indicating a significant number of undervalued stocks at that time [16][17]. - The article emphasizes that each bull market varies in duration and magnitude, suggesting that a flexible approach to profit-taking is essential [28][30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategies suitable for different star ratings in the market, emphasizing the importance of evaluating market conditions and adjusting investment portfolios accordingly [1][12]. Group 1: Star Ratings and Investment Strategies - The "螺丝钉星级" system is used to assess market valuations, with ratings ranging from 1 to 5.9 stars indicating different investment phases [5][6]. - A 5-5.9 star rating represents the best phase for investing in stock funds, with opportunities for both regular investments and asset allocation [17]. - A 4-4.9 star rating indicates a reduction in undervalued options, suggesting a cautious approach to stock fund investments, with strategies like dollar-cost averaging and diversified allocations recommended [18]. - A 3-3.9 star rating shows that most options are at normal or high valuations, with few undervalued choices available, indicating potential profit-taking opportunities [19][21]. Group 2: Market Valuation Trends - As of January 2026, the market is around 3.9 stars, with most assets returning to normal valuations and few remaining undervalued [7][12]. - Historical data shows that in September 2024, the market dropped to a 5.9 star rating, with a significant portion of undervalued assets, while in early 2021, the market was at 3.7 stars with no undervalued options [7][21]. - The article highlights the importance of monitoring market conditions and adjusting investment strategies based on the star rating system to optimize returns [13][14]. Group 3: Investment Combinations - Different investment combinations are recommended based on the star ratings, with specific strategies for each level [9][11]. - For example, the "月薪宝" combination is suitable for a long-term investment horizon with a focus on stock and bond funds, while "主动优选" and "指数增强" are recommended for higher stock allocations [11]. - The article emphasizes the need for investors to adapt their strategies based on market conditions and the star rating to maximize investment effectiveness [10][15].

Core Viewpoint - The overall market has risen, returning to a valuation of 3.9 stars, marking the first time in 2023 that it has reached this level, indicating a potential bullish trend in the market [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The market has experienced its fourth round of 3-point valuations since 2015, with previous instances in late 2017 and early 2021 lasting several months to half a year [1]. - The Hong Kong stock market entered the 3-point valuation earlier, in Q3 2025, while A-shares experienced a slight pullback in Q4 but have shown strong performance in the last two weeks [1]. - Both large, mid, and small-cap stocks have risen, with value styles also seeing an increase, and the growth style, particularly in the STAR Market, performing strongly [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Following the return to a 3.9-star valuation, the active selection portfolio has returned to normal valuation, leading to a pause in new investments [2]. - The "Yuexinbao" investment strategy remains undervalued but is close to normal valuation, indicating a potential for future growth [3][4]. - If the market continues to rise, it may reach normal valuation, prompting a pause in regular investments [5]. Group 3: Portfolio Adjustments - Recent growth in certain active selection portfolios has led to some assets reaching overvaluation, prompting a reallocation towards undervalued assets [10]. - The index enhancement portfolio may reach overvaluation soon, with a reference PE ratio of approximately 19 times [12]. - Any opportunities for profit-taking will be executed in a phased manner, ensuring a strategic approach to portfolio management [15]. Group 4: Investment Products - The "Yuexinbao" portfolio consists of 40% stocks and 60% bonds, designed for stable market participation with a built-in cash flow distribution feature [17]. - The automatic profit-taking feature has been implemented for the "Ding" series portfolios, allowing for seamless transitions to more stable investment options when necessary [19]. - The personal pension investment strategy includes a focus on classic combinations of growth and value styles, with a current emphasis on waiting for undervalued opportunities [21].

Core Viewpoint - The overall market showed a slight increase, with the index remaining at 4.1 stars, indicating a stable market condition [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Large, medium, and small-cap stocks all experienced gains, with minimal volatility observed [2]. - The cash flow and value style indices rose, approaching normal valuation levels after today's increase [3]. - Growth style stocks also saw an overall increase [4]. - Hong Kong stocks performed relatively stronger than A-shares, with technology stocks leading the gains in the Hong Kong market [5][6]. Group 2: Trading Schedule and Fund Management - The upcoming New Year holiday will affect trading schedules, with normal trading for A-shares on Wednesday, but the Hong Kong Stock Connect will be suspended [9]. - Funds containing Hong Kong stocks will also pause subscription and redemption transactions on Wednesday [10]. - Trading will resume normally after the holiday [12]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy includes a pause on regular contributions to the index-enhanced advisory portfolio as it returns to normal valuation, while continuing to hold existing investments [12]. - The active selection advisory portfolio is priced at 9,456 yuan, and the monthly salary treasure advisory portfolio is at 10,000 yuan, both available for investment [12]. - The personal pension fund investment strategy continues with regular contributions to the CSI A50 and 300 dividend low volatility funds, with a focus on long-term investment opportunities [19]. Group 4: Valuation Insights - A valuation table is provided, detailing various indices, their price-to-earnings ratios, dividend yields, and return on equity percentages, which can guide investment decisions [22]. - The valuation table indicates that certain funds are currently undervalued and suitable for regular investment, while others are at normal valuation and can be held [29].

Market Overview - The market experienced slight fluctuations, closing at a rating of 4.2 stars [1] - A market correction of a certain percentage occurred between October and November, followed by a rebound that recovered most of the previous losses [2] - Large-cap stocks saw a slight increase, while small-cap stocks experienced a minor decline [3] - Both value and growth styles showed upward movement [4] - A-shares reflecting dividend and value styles, as well as the ChiNext reflecting growth styles, experienced slight gains [5] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher but closed lower by the end of the trading day [6] - Dividend indices in the Hong Kong market rose, while technology stocks faced declines [7] Investment Strategies - The investment strategy includes a regular investment plan with a focus on suitable investment products based on market valuation [10] - The strategy allows for pausing regular investments when products reach normal valuation and holding them until they become undervalued again [10] - An automatic stop-loss feature has been introduced for certain investment combinations, which will automatically switch to stable products after reaching profit targets [14] Pension Fund Investment - The current investment plan for personal pension funds includes regular investments in specific funds, such as the CSI A50 and the 300 Dividend Low Volatility fund [16][17] - The pension index fund is a new product introduced in personal pension accounts, with a maximum annual investment limit of 12,000 yuan [17] - The investment strategy combines growth and value styles, with notable performance from both categories this year [17] Valuation Metrics - A detailed valuation table for various indices is provided, including metrics such as price-to-earnings ratio, price-to-book ratio, dividend yield, and return on equity [21] - The table categorizes indices into undervalued (green), normal (yellow), and overvalued (red) based on their current valuation status [24]