文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘微涨微跌，截止到收盘，还在4.2星。 10-11月大盘出现了百分之几的回调，最近反弹上涨，之前跌幅也收回大部分。 大盘股略微上涨，中小盘股微跌。 价值和成长风格也都上涨。 A股红利等价值风格、创业板等成长风格微涨。 港股开盘上涨，不过到收盘的时候变成下跌。 港股红利等指数上涨，港股科技等下跌。 1. [大吉大利，今天吃基] 第395期的螺丝钉 定投 实盘来啦。 时间： 2025年12月23日 方案： 定投买入 品种： ▶ 指数增强投顾组合： 回到正常估值，暂停定投，继续持有。后面回到低估后继续。 ▶ 主动优选投顾组合： 9600元， 点这里跟车买入 ▶ 月薪宝投顾组合： 10000元， 点这里跟车买入 2. 如何进行组合跟车？ 每周发车时，会根据市场估值情况，买入当前适合投资的品种。 此前已经买入的品种，如果走出低估阶段、进入正常估值，会暂停定投继续持有。 继续上涨，就会开始分批止盈，转入稳健品种。 实际使用参考金额的时候，可以根据自己的资金，按照一定比例来定投。 例如资金较少的情况下，可以按照10%的金额来投资。 进入跟车页面后，可以按图示选择「跟车本期」和「 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various investment styles that yield long-term returns, emphasizing the importance of selecting the right investment strategy based on valuation and growth potential [3]. Group 1: Investment Styles - Deep Value: Focuses on undervalued assets [3] - Growth Value: Emphasizes the quality of the company, typically investing in firms with high Return on Equity (ROE) [3] - Balanced: Considers both valuation and profit growth rate, prioritizing cost-effectiveness [3] - Growth: Concentrates on profit growth rate [3] - Deep Growth: Focuses on the growth potential of the company [3] Group 2: Fund Pool Construction - A fund pool is constructed to minimize individual risks, featuring a selection of fund managers under each investment style, similar to index fund construction [4]. - In case of fund manager changes, such as departure or retirement, a backup manager of the same style will be selected to replace them [4]. Group 3: Valuation Adjustments and Rebalancing - The active selection of advisory portfolios will consider valuations for rebalancing [5]. - Styles that are cheaper and more valuable will have a higher allocation in the portfolio, while overvalued styles will undergo profit-taking [5]. - The rebalancing of advisory portfolio funds is automated, requiring no manual intervention from investors, making it more convenient [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends, emphasizing the performance of growth versus value styles in investment, and highlights the importance of timing and strategy in achieving investment returns. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market opened with a slight increase but closed with minimal fluctuations, maintaining a rating of 4.2 stars [1] - Large-cap stocks showed slight gains while small-cap stocks declined [2] - Growth styles, such as those represented by the ChiNext board, experienced an increase, whereas value styles remained relatively weak [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - As growth styles have risen this year, valuations have gradually increased, prompting some fund managers to reduce their growth allocations and increase value style allocations [4] - The current trend of strong growth and weak value styles may be influenced by various factors [5] - Long-term investment strategies will continue to favor lower valuation styles for portfolio allocation [6] - Historical trends indicate that during last year's growth style decline, portfolios increased their growth style allocations, which is beneficial for long-term returns [7] Group 3: Investor Behavior - There is a notable disparity in returns among investors in the same asset class, influenced by their entry timing and purchase costs [10] - Investors entering during bull markets tend to have higher initial costs compared to those entering at market lows [15] - A significant portion of A-share accounts were opened during the major bull markets of 2007 and 2015, indicating a tendency for investors to enter the market during rising phases [18] - Strategies such as dollar-cost averaging during market downturns can help lower investment costs and lead to profitability without needing the market to return to previous highs [20][21] Group 4: Learning and Experience - The first round of investing through bear and bull markets is primarily about gaining experience, and investors should not overly focus on initial returns [28] - Historical market cycles provide valuable lessons, and understanding these cycles can help investors make informed decisions in future investments [30][33] - The article suggests that over the next 30 years, investors will likely experience multiple cycles of bull and bear markets, providing ample opportunities for undervalued purchases and overvalued sell-offs [38] Group 5: Product Features - The company has introduced an "automatic profit-taking" feature for its actively selected and index-enhanced portfolios, which will trigger profit-taking signals as the market moves out of undervaluation [40] - A live session is scheduled to discuss the financial performance of listed companies in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, focusing on profit recovery in the first two quarters of the year [42]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions, highlighting the rotation of market styles and identifying sectors that have reached overvaluation, while also emphasizing the importance of earnings growth as a fundamental driver of long-term investment returns [7][15][18]. Market Performance - The overall market experienced a slight decline, closing at 4.2 stars, with large-cap stocks down and small-cap stocks slightly up [1][2]. - The technology sector in Hong Kong showed strength, with gains exceeding 1.5% [4][5]. - The A-share market has seen significant style rotation, with certain sectors experiencing rapid increases in valuation [7][15]. Overvalued Sectors - Several sectors have reached overvaluation this year: - **Banking Index**: Experienced a significant rise in 2022-2024 during a bear market, peaking in July before correcting to a normal high valuation [9][10][11]. - **Hong Kong Pharmaceutical Index**: After a sharp decline in April, it rebounded with substantial earnings growth, leading to a double-up trend before correcting to a normal high valuation [12][13]. - **Military Industry**: Saw a rise due to military exercises in September, reaching high valuation before experiencing a correction [14]. - **Chip Sector and Sci-Tech 50**: Benefited from a booming chip industry, reaching high valuations in late August before a slight pullback [14]. - **North Certificate 50**: This small-cap index also reached high valuation after significant gains in August [14]. Market Dynamics - The A-share bull market is characterized by style rotation rather than broad-based rallies, with leading sectors often reaching overvaluation first [15]. - Historical comparisons suggest that the current market resembles the 2013-2017 period, where specific sectors led the market and subsequently faced corrections [15][18]. Earnings Growth and Investment Strategy - Long-term investment returns are primarily driven by earnings growth rather than valuation increases [15][18]. - The article emphasizes that even in bear markets, indices can rise significantly over time, independent of high valuations [15][18]. Valuation Insights - A summary of various indices' valuations is provided, indicating which sectors are undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued, aiding investors in making informed decisions [22][29][31].

Market Overview - The market opened lower but closed significantly higher, returning to a rating of 4.2 stars [1] - All market caps (large, medium, and small) experienced substantial gains [2] - Growth style stocks surged, with notable increases in the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board [3] Sector Performance - The ChiNext Index rose by over 5% [4] - The ChiNext had previously lagged behind the Sci-Tech Innovation Board but has recently started to recover, currently at a normal valuation [5] - When growth styles are strong, value styles tend to be relatively weak, although this does not imply a decline in value stocks [6][7] - Indices related to free cash flow and value also saw increases today [8] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a slight decline [10] - The pharmaceutical sector in Hong Kong showed significant volatility [11] - The innovative drug indices in Hong Kong had a substantial rise in Q2 but reached overvaluation in August, leading to a pullback in subsequent weeks [12] - Recent restrictions imposed by Trump on domestic innovative drug companies have contributed to a notable decline in the Hong Kong Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index [13] - Despite the recent pullback, the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector remains at a relatively high valuation [14] - The A-share pharmaceutical and medical sectors were less affected, with the A-share pharmaceutical index overall increasing [15] Impact of Regulatory Changes - Concerns were raised about the long-term impact of U.S. restrictions on domestic innovative drug companies, which have been common since 2018 [16] - Historical examples include China Mobile's forced delisting from U.S. markets due to restrictions [17] - Various sectors, including military, chips, and innovative drugs, have faced similar challenges in the past [18] - Short-term restrictions often lead to stock price volatility in affected sectors [21] - Following periods of market panic, sectors like telecommunications and innovative drugs have shown significant revenue and profit growth [24][26] - The fundamentals of these sectors have recovered, driving stock prices upward [28] Competitive Advantages - The restrictions are often a result of domestic companies gaining competitive advantages in these sectors, attributed to the "engineer dividend" [29] - China has the largest pool of engineering graduates globally, providing a cost advantage in various fields, including innovative drug development [30] - This engineer dividend is expected to persist until around 2045, as the number of high school graduates is projected to peak around 2035 [31] - Domestic companies excel in scaling innovations efficiently, contrasting with Western firms that focus on initial innovations [32] Investment Strategies - The company emphasizes the importance of investing during periods of market panic when stocks are undervalued [29] - A new feature, "automatic profit-taking," has been launched for investment portfolios, allowing for systematic profit realization as markets recover [29] Valuation Insights - An updated valuation table for dividend and free cash flow indices is available for reference [31] - The valuation table includes various indices with their respective earnings yield, price-to-earnings ratio, and dividend yield [32][39]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, highlighting the growth in technology stocks and the overall market trends, while also addressing the bond market's fluctuations and the significance of various indices in reflecting market conditions. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market saw a slight increase, closing at a rating of 4.3 stars [1] - Both large, medium, and small-cap stocks experienced minor gains with low volatility [2] - Growth style stocks slightly declined while value style stocks saw a minor increase [3] - Hong Kong stocks have continued to rise, particularly in the technology sector, with significant year-on-year profit growth in Q2 [4][5] Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The stock market remains robust, but the pure bond market has shown volatility [7] - Long-term pure bonds have continued to decline, with the 10-year government bond down 3% and the 30-year bond down 5% from their highs this year [9] - The current yield for the 10-year government bond is around 1.8%, which is not considered attractive at this time [11] Group 3: Historical Context of A-share Market - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a 10-year high in August, peaking at 3888 points, but has not surpassed the 2015 high of 5178 points or the 2007 high of 6124 points [14][15][17] - The bull market from 2005 to 2007 saw the index rise from under 1000 points to 6124 points, a sixfold increase, which has impacted long-term returns [18][20][22] - The index has shown long-term growth, particularly at the bottom points of bear markets, which are influenced by the fundamentals of listed companies [26][34] Group 4: Index Fund Dynamics - The number of index funds linked to the Shanghai Composite Index is significantly lower compared to those linked to the CSI 300 and CSI 500, with only 16 funds totaling 8.9 billion compared to 285 funds for CSI 300 totaling 1.3 trillion [38][39] - The underrepresentation of the Shanghai Composite Index in the fund market is attributed to its limited scope, only including stocks from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [42][44] - The majority of recent investments by state-owned entities have been in CSI 300 and CSI 500 index funds rather than the Shanghai Composite Index [45] Group 5: Future Outlook and Features - The article mentions the launch of new features for investment strategies, including an "automatic profit-taking" function for actively managed and enhanced index portfolios [53][54] - A new feature in the "Today Star" mini-program allows users to access core data and real-time valuations of mainstream ETFs, helping investors identify undervalued ETFs [57][60]